Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 1098 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #21,941
  • Edited 1:10am Jan 14, 2011 12:32am | Edited 1:10am
Quoting piccolo
just shut up, please. nobody cares.
Do you think, really? ME DO U ...
- last days i tryed how is it to be focused only to trading... i was out!
- he is 21yer, he has a time to observe, to learn slowly. I see nothing wrong on this...
- yesterday i got to know, that my friend died at his 28years. He was nice optimist person, you maybe know such people, who somehow easily give you positiveness no matter they want. So there is one such lost.
Piccolo, Piccolo, you should do something with her:-)...
  • #21,942
  • Jan 14, 2011 12:35am Jan 14, 2011 12:35am
Quoting Fana
Good morning!
Wow! I was having a rest yesterday and now i see new tops. Niels, thank you for stopping me there. I was exhausted from 24h trading. So today i will be only watching and preparing for the next weekend. Today i am going to buy a new tradin computer and monitor. Nonsense to have a disadvantage in this. Happy trading

Hi Fana,

glad to see you happy and "alive" again.
Nothing to thank for.
You are welcome!

Good idea to buy at least a large screen ....

Cu,
Niels
  • #21,943
  • Jan 14, 2011 12:36am Jan 14, 2011 12:36am
Hey, I am starting to think that the use of the spiraling in and out is for the overall manipulation of our average to the market. When attacking, I think we need to manage both the basis and the dance at the same time. When adding positions, our basis comes closer to the price, increasing the likelihood that our attack could turn from a positive to negative expectancy. This should never happen. Thus, to prevent this possibility, we allow the scouts and the checker (1,1 in the fib progression or what ever your progression is) to gain foreign capital before we launch an attack. This ensures that our basis does not come too close to the market, effectively creating a "buffer" zone for retraces and whipsaws. My personal conclusion settles on fti's rule that an attack must be launched dependent on your foreign capital accumulated. This means that we should not attack simply because we see an impulse, but only when it is wise to utilize the impulse without jeopardizing our basis.

Right?

The rescue skew, however can be very versatile. At this point, I simply calculate the pips to b/e to an acceptable level for my terrain/momentum. This I find to be the most accurate way of not being rigid, but the calculation can be cumbersome (unless you have excel or a neat way of doing mental math).

More rigid ways would be (from my knowledge):
1) using the next level on fib progression. If 1,1,2 is stuck then rescue with 3. This can be a problem because three lots cannot pull the basis of 4 lots into a a tight range for rescue.
2) using a base (where I defined base as the sum of total troops in play), say you have sent in 1,1,2= 4. So, rescue for 1,1,2 is 4,4,8 using similar 1,1,2 progression.
3) geometric using x^2. Say if 1,1,2 is stuck, rescue with 1+1+2=4 --> 4^2=16. Beware this method though, the snowball is HUGE!!!

Please correct me if I am wrong. What are your ideas about these rescue skews? While calculations for pips to b/e are more flexible, a more rigid skew allows for a unified approach to attack and rescue?

Quoting auxesis
Also important is the size of the scout/unit of trade, as it should be proportionate to your account size.

1,1,2 is about as vanilla as you can get, however rescue size is determined by total troops in play as it is exponential or at minimum a fib growth spiral for proper functionality.. i'd suggest you reread the early thread areas dealing with spirals.

If you want to reduce the aggressiveness of the spiral reduce unit size, but the math makeup of your spiral needs to be correct, as well as understanding the reason for it's design
EDIT: I'm sorry to be dropping questions on you guys during trading hours. Do not feel obligated to answer this question. I will try to limit my questions til after hours.
  • #21,944
  • Jan 14, 2011 12:42am Jan 14, 2011 12:42am
EU is wildly Going up.....and USD CHF is going down...

But USD CAD is going up too.....and UJ is holding its fort.............


V

EDIT: Just saw a veteran Dutch angel logged in!!!!
  • #21,945
  • Jan 14, 2011 12:47am Jan 14, 2011 12:47am
Quoting fullperson
[...]

Please correct me if I am wrong. What are your ideas about these rescue skews? While calculations for pips to b/e are more flexible, a more rigid skew allows for a unified approach to attack and rescue?
Cool man!
From my understanding you are very on track.
But would like to hear some other commentators too.

I'm using that way (higlighted above) most of the time.
But with screen time you will not need a calculator or excel sheet anylonger. You have a feeling for the maths. The same way you know when someone tells you, that he has lost 30USD of his 100USd account, that it is close to 1/3. More accuracy is not needed ...
The lotsize you finally chose is of course depending on momentum and terrain ..

Niels
  • #21,946
  • Jan 14, 2011 1:02am Jan 14, 2011 1:02am
Quoting fullperson
The rescue skew, however can be very versatile. At this point, I simply calculate the pips to b/e to an acceptable level for my terrain/momentum. This I find to be the most accurate way of not being rigid, but the calculation can be cumbersome (unless you have excel or a neat way of doing mental math).
I have a spreadsheet that do the calucation of the average price of my total positons, and the BE price including all p&l clocked. I also have a section that calucate for me what is the lot size required at current price to BE.

But like Mamood said, this is helpful as a guide only, initially. Later on somehow my discretionary adjustment (take into account of chart terrain, my risk tolerance...) is so much that I only refer to this spreadsheet once a while.

Just my 2 pips.
  • #21,947
  • Jan 14, 2011 1:09am Jan 14, 2011 1:09am
Quoting fullperson
Hey, I am starting to think that the use of the spiraling in and out is for the overall manipulation of our average to the market. When attacking, I think we need to manage both the basis and the dance at the same time. When adding positions, our basis comes closer to the price, increasing the likelihood that our attack could turn from a positive to negative expectancy. This should never happen. Thus, to prevent this possibility, we allow the scouts and the checker (1,1 in the fib progression...
Foreign capital is also profit from earlier trades that day, week, maybe even year.
Attack skew is "lower" than rescue but the exact skew depends on the trader.

I believe it is wrong to enter attacks only when the scout is so deep in profit that the attack level cannot hurt it. That should never be an issue, if the attack is mistimed, exit to re-enter later before it freezes your balls.

The general idea is right.. position average for attack should be further from the market than in a rescue.
  • #21,948
  • Jan 14, 2011 1:13am Jan 14, 2011 1:13am
Quoting fti
the position is skewed 144X to bring book back to play later.
This will become new scout base
starts near flat book again.

regards
that makes me re-think my scout size..
  • #21,949
  • Jan 14, 2011 1:16am Jan 14, 2011 1:16am
Quoting kingjames
fti, others on the thread, i'm needing help with the MM and the wwilder numbers and how they work together. I know the thread has gone way past this point but I've read it a few times and gave it time but still can not see it. I don't want to disturb the thread so if someone can help through pm i would greatly appriciate it.

Was just going leave it but then it would be my own fault for not asking for help.

Thanks KJ
the wilders numbers just mean that you cannot build a pyramid from the top

feel free to ask it in public, MM is a topic that is barely covered in the thread.
  • #21,950
  • Jan 14, 2011 1:27am Jan 14, 2011 1:27am
Quoting Fana
Good morning!
Wow! I was having a rest yesterday and now i see new tops. Niels, thank you for stopping me there. I was exhausted from 24h trading. So today i will be only watching and preparing for the next weekend. Today i am going to buy a new tradin computer and monitor. Nonsense to have a disadvantage in this. Happy trading
Fana u should be awarded Purple Heart for outstanding bravery in the face of the enemies... Glad u finally resolved that battle

Happy Shopping for the computer & monitor
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #21,951
  • Jan 14, 2011 1:29am Jan 14, 2011 1:29am
Quoting piccolo
the wilders numbers just mean that you cannot build a pyramid from the top

feel free to ask it in public, MM is a topic that is barely covered in the thread.
Thanks piccolo, having a solid base in order for your structure to be strong? (from my study so far on pyramids, Thanks fti)
  • #21,952
  • Edited 2:00am Jan 14, 2011 1:30am | Edited 2:00am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Chief,

would u recommend to anyone what u doing????.....

V
no this for Adults only.
c/f short L6 @ 1.2973

short L6(144x) 1.3400,405,413,446,454

bot L(144x), 13405,400, 395

position recap short L6 @1.2973

regards
ok back to work

Oh if you have lots time to burn.
here's some intresting stuff, infact he was not commi, as you will learn from the lessons in "Declassified_ Chairman Mao", hummmm, maybe warlord?

yeah quiet sure , he's not commi, but he used them extensively
clever general.


Inserted Video
  • #21,953
  • Jan 14, 2011 1:34am Jan 14, 2011 1:34am
Quoting Sylar
Fana u should be awarded Purple Heart for outstanding bravery in the face of the enemies... Glad u finally resolved that battle

Happy Shopping for the computer & monitor
Hi Philip. Good experience. Learning is on... I am gonna buuuuyig
  • #21,954
  • Jan 14, 2011 1:35am Jan 14, 2011 1:35am
Quoting Fana
Hi Philip. Good experience. Learning is on... I am gonna buuuuyig
make sure you don't hit another train, lol.
  • #21,955
  • Edited 1:42am Jan 14, 2011 1:40am | Edited 1:42am
USD-JPY seems to be taking off to the upside, USD bullishness returning?

Looking to enter scout short in EUR-USD if opportunity presents itself.

Edit : Should be in already, I'm too slow.
  • #21,956
  • Jan 14, 2011 1:47am Jan 14, 2011 1:47am
Quoting fti
no this for Adults only.
c/f short L6 @ 1.2973

short L6(144x) 1.3400,405,413,446,454

bot L(144x), 13405,400, 395

position recap short L6 @1.2973

regards
ok back to work

Oh if you have lots time to burn.
here's some intresting stuff
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQjKUPtxuOo
Gald to see your dancing steps.
So no need to be concerned any longer :-)
  • #21,957
  • Jan 14, 2011 1:48am Jan 14, 2011 1:48am
Did any news came out about U/J? early coffee break...dancing with 2 ladies at the same time sure gave me a headache -_-!

edit: almost news time also
  • #21,958
  • Jan 14, 2011 1:51am Jan 14, 2011 1:51am
Quoting eraptheman
Did any news came out about U/J? early coffee break...dancing with 2 ladies at the same time sure gives me a headache -_-!
Nothing that I'm aware off.
But seems the EU figs (scheduled for 10am GMT) are out a little earlier....
  • #21,959
  • Jan 14, 2011 1:55am Jan 14, 2011 1:55am
Quoting eraptheman
Did any news came out about U/J? early coffee break...dancing with 2 ladies at the same time sure gave me a headache -_-!

edit: almost news time also
(Reuters) - Japan's prime minister appointed a fiscal hawk to a key post and replaced his deputy in a cabinet revamp on Friday to cope with a divided parliament and tackle reforms to rein in public debt, but hurdles to success are high.

not sure if this is the cause but there could be some policy changes..
  • #21,960
  • Jan 14, 2011 1:56am Jan 14, 2011 1:56am
Quoting MaMood
Nothing that I'm aware off.
But seems the EU figs (scheduled for 10am GMT) are out a little earlier....
wah...that's why the market suddenly died and 3 kingdoms was acting weird suddenly. Thanks Neils!

and there goes EU.............
10 traders viewing now