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5Min Intraday System

  • #7,381
  • Edited 2:12am Jan 8, 2011 1:58am | Edited 2:12am
Quoting Pipdealer
Yea. That is why I do not like to trade when PA does not bounce before reaching 21EMA. Sometimes there will be no retracement when it does that.

The 1st and 2nd retracements are more reliable as well. If I miss the 2nd one, I will be more careful especially if it is an uptrend.

War zone is between 10 and 21 EMA, right? Instead of the middle point of the war zone, I feel more safe if PA bounces back in the war zone closer to 10EMA side. What do you think?
Hi P

Your comment/question:

War zone is between 10 and 21 EMA, right? Instead of the middle point of the war zone, I feel more safe if PA bounces back in the war zone closer to 10EMA side. What do you think?

My opinion:

1. It all depends on the speed of the market which will determine where the bounce is likely to occur:

1.1 Fast market - the bounce is usually off the 10MA. Very tricky to trade as you don't know where to place your SL.

1.2 Meduim market - the bounce is usually off the 21MA (also usually within the war zone). Best option to trade because there is usually enough pips to the previous swing high or low for a nice profit).

1.3 Slow to choppy market - the bounce is usually off the 50MA. Very risky to trade

2. The pullback into the war zone and bounce back is just one of the signals. I will look for other signals such as candle formations (e.g.tails), price patterms (e.g. pennant, flag, 3 little sisters, 3 big brothers, triangle), my significant levels (horizontal), my small intra-day trendline. The setup should have a confluence of signals (where a few signals appear close to each other). Only then would I be interested in the trade. How many signals? It will depend on the setup.

3. I'll also look at the longer time frame charts for an indication of the market rhythm - very subjective.

Now you know my style of trading - in a nutshell.

Enjoy the trading.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,382
  • Jan 8, 2011 4:10am Jan 8, 2011 4:10am
Yep. I agree with all that. Better to trade when PA is more predictable. And I like those PA analysis. The best way to know PA really. It's all about finding the significant S/R lines.
A successful trading depends on knowing what to analyze.
  • #7,383
  • Jan 10, 2011 5:56am Jan 10, 2011 5:56am
Quoting Golfer

Just remember - don't overanalise, otherwise you won't any trade because there will always by warning signs. Just take the decision and manage the trade afterwards.

I hope it helps
Hi Golfer, thanks thats good advice, I think I may been too strict when going back looking for older trades.
  • #7,384
  • Jan 12, 2011 7:45am Jan 12, 2011 7:45am
Some practical examples of price patterns showing us the market rhythm.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20110112 1.2.PNG Size: 61 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,385
  • Jan 12, 2011 7:47am Jan 12, 2011 7:47am
Now for the live chart - I hope you've noticed the triangle that was forming live on the chart posted on my previous post.

See my comments on the chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20110112 1.1.PNG Size: 61 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,386
  • Jan 12, 2011 7:50am Jan 12, 2011 7:50am
To me, a triangle (lower highs and higher lows) means the price is going inot a consolidation period and anything might happen. See the results on this chart.

Once again - see how you cannot take each and every pullback into the war as a valid trade setup.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,387
  • Jan 12, 2011 1:17pm Jan 12, 2011 1:17pm
Quoting Golfer
To me, a triangle (lower highs and higher lows) means the price is going inot a consolidation period and anything might happen. See the results on this chart.

Once again - see how you cannot take each and every pullback into the war as a valid trade setup.
Didn't see it that way. I saw W-bottom there. Enter after PA breaks the retracement.
A successful trading depends on knowing what to analyze.
  • #7,388
  • Jan 12, 2011 1:27pm Jan 12, 2011 1:27pm
Quoting Pipdealer
Didn't see it that way. I saw W-bottom there. Enter after PA breaks the retracement.
Pipdealer,
Could you clarify your point by posting a relevant chart please (I an specifically interested in the W-bottom that you mentioned).
Thank you
  • #7,389
  • Jan 12, 2011 6:19pm Jan 12, 2011 6:19pm
I usually see the move as the end of a trend. Lots of candles with long wicks, point 1 is the lowest, point 2 retracement, and point 3 failed to become the lowest point. I know PA got so close to it though.

Typical 123, W-bottom shape. At the break of the orange line, the top of point 2, you can enter safely.
Attached Image
A successful trading depends on knowing what to analyze.
  • #7,390
  • Jan 12, 2011 8:49pm Jan 12, 2011 8:49pm
Hi Pip Deadler
how can you make the picture in to thread ??? i try with the picture but is not work ??
  • #7,391
  • Jan 13, 2011 12:43am Jan 13, 2011 12:43am
Quoting Pipdealer
I usually see the move as the end of a trend. Lots of candles with long wicks, point 1 is the lowest, point 2 retracement, and point 3 failed to become the lowest point. I know PA got so close to it though.

Typical 123, W-bottom shape. At the break of the orange line, the top of point 2, you can enter safely.
Hi Pipdealer

Perfect example of a trade using Vantage's Higher low, lower high system (also a thread on forex factory). That is why I do like to use this system and Vantage's system in tandem/interactively. The two systems are designed for two different price movements and complement each other.

Well done.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,392
  • Jan 13, 2011 1:50am Jan 13, 2011 1:50am
For all of those who want to know about the profitability of this system - the results of a trail account of mine below. Once again, just to show the people what can be done training two 5min systems (Phillip's 5min system and Vantage's system) part time.

I've opened a $500 live standard account in October 2010 with a certain broker (as a bonus, I received a price action system I was looking for for free - the reason why I opened the account). On the left hand side is my aim - 5% growth per month on the $500 capital and on the rigth hand side is my actual monthly outcome. Not too bad if you consider all the holidays and difficult trading times. The January 2011 results reflects my trading as it stands today.

Just remember - this is the outcome for my style of trading. Your outcome will certainly look much different.

Enjoy the trading
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Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,393
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:58am Jan 13, 2011 2:58am
Great Job, Golfer!
A successful trading depends on knowing what to analyze.
  • #7,394
  • Jan 13, 2011 4:07am Jan 13, 2011 4:07am
Congratulation, Golfer!
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #7,395
  • Jan 13, 2011 5:08am Jan 13, 2011 5:08am
Congratulations Golfer, just wondering how many trades does that include so far from October to now?(including the Vantage system)
  • #7,396
  • Edited 5:33am Jan 13, 2011 5:20am | Edited 5:33am
Quoting Golfer
Some practical examples of price patterns showing us the market rhythm.
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1294839902
Interesting graph, I would have thought the second flag would be ideal(hindsight is great), but mainly because it only just about closed below the signicant level and it also reached a third higher high(if the first one really counts). Do you mean the whole uptrend was too short/too fast? Given that the trend was visibly forming for about 3 hours before that I wouldnt have considered that short so its something I must keep in mind.
thanks
  • #7,397
  • Jan 13, 2011 7:41am Jan 13, 2011 7:41am
Quoting adecleir
Congratulations Golfer, just wondering how many trades does that include so far from October to now?(including the Vantage system)
A total number of 53 trades since I've started trading with the trail account.

To all the newbies:

You can see I only deposit a small amount as it is trail account. Trail account meaning I am practising my trading skills and shortcoming with small amounts of live money.

Personally I won't recommend trading a demo account for too long as one tends to learn "bad" habits as it is not real money - ask me, I've been there. Now I am struggling to get rid of those bad habits. I know the gurus won't agree with me on this one - so be it.

My recommendation: rather open a small live account (mini account if possible where you can trade with 0.01lots) and trade that account if it is normal trading (normal rules apply). That will give you the feeling of trading with real money and real trading. Learn trading the correct way.

Enjoy
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,398
  • Jan 13, 2011 7:50am Jan 13, 2011 7:50am
Quoting adecleir
Interesting graph, I would have thought the second flag would be ideal(hindsight is great), but mainly because it only just about closed below the signicant level and it also reached a third higher high(if the first one really counts). Do you mean the whole uptrend was too short/too fast? Given that the trend was visibly forming for about 3 hours before that I wouldnt have considered that short so its something I must keep in mind.
thanks
Hi A

My comments in blue:

I would have thought the second flag would be ideal(hindsight is great),

Yes, I agree but my significant level was broken with the first flag meaning it might be possible that my significant level won't be that "significant" anymore (it won't act as resistance). This time it worked out.

Do you mean the whole uptrend was too short/too fast?

Too short - yes. It was just a two or three pullback move and what I called a intra-session trend and not a nice trend over two or three trading sessions.

Too fast - no, as the price's pullback reached the war zone and the 21MA meaning the speed of the market is medium. Fast meaning the price doesn't retrace/pullback to the war zone and the pullback does not reach the war zone before continuing in the original direction.

That is why the members recommend taking the second or third pullback of a move. Thereafter it becomes very risky.

I hope it is clear.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,399
  • Jan 13, 2011 9:09am Jan 13, 2011 9:09am
Quoting Golfer
For all of those who want to know about the profitability of this system - the results of a trail account of mine below. Once again, just to show the people what can be done training two 5min systems (Phillip's 5min system and Vantage's system) part time.

I've opened a $500 live standard account in October 2010 with a certain broker (as a bonus, I received a price action system I was looking for for free - the reason why I opened the account). On the left hand side is my aim - 5% growth per month on the $500 capital and on the rigth hand...

Hi Golfer,

I have a couple of question if you don't mind.

1.
Do you have an approximate win/loss ration of your trades over the past 3 month. (maybe also some statistic how many trades you took)


2.
On the 5 min intraday system: do you stick strictly to 6-8 pips SL (e.g. EURUSD) or do you adjust SL depending on the setup.
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #7,400
  • Jan 14, 2011 3:14am Jan 14, 2011 3:14am
Quoting M_j
Hi Golfer,

I have a couple of question if you don't mind.

1.
Do you have an approximate win/loss ration of your trades over the past 3 month. (maybe also some statistic how many trades you took)


2.
On the 5 min intraday system: do you stick strictly to 6-8 pips SL (e.g. EURUSD) or do you adjust SL depending on the setup.
Hi MJ

My answers to your questions in blue:

1.
Do you have an approximate win/loss ration of your trades over the past 3 month. (maybe also some statistic how many trades you took)

See my results below - if I not mistaken, a hit rate of 74% (positive trades). That is not really important. What is important is how one manages your trades. As you can see from my results, my losses are still way too big.

2.
On the 5 min intraday system: do you stick strictly to 6-8 pips SL (e.g. EURUSD) or do you adjust SL depending on the setup.[/quote]

O, no. I realise the 6-8pips SL doesn't work for me. It depends on the setup but what is important to ALWAYS try and get a risk reward (R:R) of more than 1. Meaning (for the newbies) if your SL is 15pips away, you are risking 15pips. Therefore your TP should be at least 15pips away. So, for every 1 pip you risk, you need to win 1 pip.


This was one of the problems I had with this system. I had a high success rate (over 70%) but my account was going down. Then I realised I was taking too many trades and just winning 1-3pips profit. My losses were 10-15pips. So, I decide to re-visit the methodology/reasoning behind this system and I adapted it to suite my style of trading. That is why I "burned" all the other indicators, looked at price actions and now I do have my small intra-day trendlines, my significant levels, prcie patterns and candle formations to guide me through the setups. I just use the 10, 21 and 50MA to orientate myself re the market position/rhythm and use it as confirmation.


So, nowadays I do put my SL where I don't expect the market to go (usually below of above the swing high/low or significant level or support/resistance levels).

I hope it helps
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Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
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