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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #15,121
  • Jan 11, 2011 11:22pm Jan 11, 2011 11:22pm
Quoting patrick25
Thanks Glasso, the reasons I took the trade because the Boss retraced through 20&50 and came back right below 20&50 as resistance. Worker's 20&50 just crossed and failed to make HH after the cross. Jan 4 candle was the ticket for the ride. My aha moments came after seeing Strat's "hindsight" charts that when you open a chart and don't look at if it is month, or weekly, or daily, you will notice price actions around 20&50 are the same. Take that knowlege and apply it in these order Big Boss tells the Boss what to do, then the Boss tells Worker...
Hi Patrick25,
Thanks for your excellent explanation.
This information 20&50EMA is very useful.
  • #15,122
  • Jan 12, 2011 1:48am Jan 12, 2011 1:48am
AUDCAD. Seeing how they’ve run all the stops dating back to early December, and found support (rebound) at the confluence of BRN 0.9700 / EMA250 & FIB50% (Strat’s Italian ice-cream man - just keeping it kool), IMHO an ATM trade could be in the offing if today’s candle closes in the 0.9800-0.9850 zone. Anyone watching this one?
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc AUDCAD DAILY CHART.doc   156 KB | 465 downloads
  • #15,123
  • Jan 12, 2011 2:55am Jan 12, 2011 2:55am
Quoting trogger
Yes Jegwele, I can appreciate your concerns. And you are right to be concerned - after all, Rule...
Great analysis Trogger! You and Strat deserve every pip you cream off this trade. Guess I need more learning and experience to confidently take the trend head on. Jeg.
  • #15,124
  • Jan 12, 2011 8:55pm Jan 12, 2011 8:55pm
Quoting jegwele
Great analysis Trogger! You and Strat deserve every pip you cream off this trade. Guess I need more learning and experience to confidently take the trend head on. Jeg.
I don't mean to be rude and I hope you will take this in the spirit it is intended Jegwele, but you may have missed the point of my previous post and of Strat's response to your original post.
We are both trying to tell you that the best analysis in the world isn't going to guarantee you a single pip. All we can ever hope to do with an analysis is put the balance of probability for success in our favour - if we can win two dollars for every dollar lost, in the long -run we will be rich, very rich indeed!

I think you need to read-up on Strat's (and others) posts on the thread about the psychology of trading, demons and the "little-people". As Strat has re-iterated time and time again on this thread, this is 95% of becoming a successful trader. The other 5% is the technical.

One would/should only take the call if one is comfortable with one's own analysis, if the reasons to take the trade outweigh any reason(s) not to take the trade (see Strats plentiful postings of the mantra: "Amateurs manage money by taking......., Professionals manage ..... by taking .........!"
"Amateurs look for.......... ......... ....... Professionals look for ......... not... ..............!" (and if you can't fill in the blanks, don't trade again until you can!) Before entering any trade one must understand and accept the risk. The risk is real. The risk is clearly defined (if it isn't clearly defined, you shouldn't be trading!).

Read on and enjoy the thread.
  • #15,125
  • Jan 12, 2011 9:17pm Jan 12, 2011 9:17pm
Quoting jegwele
AUDCAD. Seeing how they’ve run all the stops dating back to early December, and found support (rebound) at the confluence of BRN 0.9700 / EMA250 & FIB50% (Strat’s Italian ice-cream man - just keeping it kool), IMHO an ATM trade could be in the offing if today’s candle closes in the 0.9800-0.9850 zone. Anyone watching this one? Attachment
"If" indeed.

"If" the candle had closed "in the 0.9800-0.9850 zone" then you would have been trying to trade off an inside bar. "If" you have read/are reading the thread then you would have read Strat's advice that you shouldn't be doing this as a beginner.

"Anyone watching this one?"

"If" you have read/are reading the thread then you would have read Patrick25 and my own recent posts that we are indeed "watching this one!"

Trust me Jegwele, read and understand the thread. Start on page 1.
It is well worth the effort.
  • #15,126
  • Jan 12, 2011 9:56pm Jan 12, 2011 9:56pm
Quoting patrick25
My second position closed at support. Last position is still at breakeven to see if it will turn to a new trend. The Boss is currently forming a M pattern so will see.

I'm bored!
Time to look at some charts!

As previously posted, I started with 2 positions. Have taken profit on one and have moved my stop on the other to above the doji of 10Jan.
Attached Image


So what's so special about this, rather beautiful, doji?
Lets' draw a line through the open/close and, staying on the daily time-frame, follow it back a few weeks:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.cad.d.sept.dec10.gif Size: 11 KB

Aren't those green boxes pretty? Many of those wicks and closes to the pip.
Must be a co-incidence!

Lets keep going back and see what else we can find:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.cad.d.nov.09.gif Size: 10 KB

Ah! November 2009. Must be a co-incidence!

And a bit further back:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.cad.d.jun.jul.08.gif Size: 10 KB

Damn! forgot the green boxes, but let's pretend they are there!.
Notice how that line dead-smack through the center of that doji caps the action for all of June and July 2008 before price rolls over? co-incidence?

Let' go back a bit further...

Damn! My broker just ran outa data!

To be continued
  • #15,127
  • Jan 12, 2011 10:33pm Jan 12, 2011 10:33pm
To be continued[/quote]

Let' go back a bit further...

Damn! My broker just ran outa data!

Let's try another set of charts - Let me see, where did that line go?
About 98.70 wasn't it?
This (98.66) is as close as I can get on such a long time line:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.cad.monthly.png Size: 55 KB



Sure looks like a co-incidence to me!
  • #15,128
  • Jan 12, 2011 10:53pm Jan 12, 2011 10:53pm
Quoting trogger
No doubt this pair is now on everyone's radar.

Where this goes from here will, in all probability......

Attachment

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.nz.monthly.png Size: 47 KB


Hint: Jan 27
  • #15,129
  • Jan 12, 2011 10:53pm Jan 12, 2011 10:53pm
Quoting trogger
I don't mean to be rude and I hope you will take this in the spirit it is intended Jegwele, but you may have missed the point of my previous post and of Strat's response to your original post.
We are both trying to tell you that the best analysis in the world isn't going to guarantee you a single pip. All we can ever hope to do with an analysis is put the balance of probability for success in our favour - if we can win two dollars for every dollar lost, in the long -run we will be rich, very rich indeed!

I think you need to read-up on Strat's (and...
Thanks for the education Trogger, and Strat. No offence taken. Point taken, finally. Trading is probabilities, not certainties.
  • #15,130
  • Jan 12, 2011 11:07pm Jan 12, 2011 11:07pm
Quoting jegwele
Thanks for the education Trogger, and Strat. No offence taken. Point taken, finally. Trading is probabilities, not certainties.
Now, read and understand the thread (slowly, and starting at the beginning).
You will be pleased when you do. That is a certainty!
  • #15,131
  • Jan 13, 2011 7:00am Jan 13, 2011 7:00am
Quoting strat
Posted on www.stratsforextrading.com

Post subject: STRAT LIVE TRADE!
http://www.stratsforextrading.com/ph...ost_target.gifPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:53 am

Order just placed (8:48 EST) to buy USDJPY at 83.19 SL 82.87

Target is 84.43 or reverse PA
Stopped out for a 32 pip loss - just the cost of doing business!

Still Net Long and looking to add again for a re-test of 84.50
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,132
  • Jan 13, 2011 1:02pm Jan 13, 2011 1:02pm
Do you digg gold?

I think we have the signal to SHORT. BEEB @ support 1380.
Boss BEEB/OB supports the move down and there is enough room to go.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold_w_13.01.png Size: 26 KB
  • #15,133
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:31pm Jan 13, 2011 2:31pm
Quoting patrick25
This one is also on my watch list. I like the Boss price action on retracement back to Boss 20&50.
Let's revisit this pair, a week on from Patrick's "alert"
I too have been watching this closely. Those reading the thread will know why I have been watching it closely - I have been long since 18 December. [ Strat, quite rightly pointed out that my entry was not based on the principles put forward in this thread (I was initially day-trading this pair and I stressed that I do not (and never will) advocate anyone using an entry other than what is taught on the thread)].
I re-entered on 23 Dec and added as PA on the daily confirmed immediate direction, initially targeting 73.90 (around the low of the bar 30 November):
Attached Image


Initial target was reached on 10Jan and positions closed between 10 and 12 Jan. I am watching from the sidelines now as we have seen price react here before - see areas in green.

Patrick is presumably waiting for the time frames to line up (?) but I don't know that I would want to be holding any position going into the 27th Jan.
Attached Image
  • #15,134
  • Jan 13, 2011 4:33pm Jan 13, 2011 4:33pm
Quoting trogger
Let's revisit this pair, a week on from Patrick's "alert"
I too have been watching this closely. Those reading the thread will know why I have been watching it closely - I have been long since 18 December. [ Strat, quite rightly pointed out that my entry was not based on the principles put forward in this thread (I was initially day-trading this pair and I stressed that I do not (and never will) advocate anyone using an entry other than what is taught on the thread)].
I re-entered on 23 Dec and added as PA on the daily confirmed immediate direction,...
You are a smart man. While I am waiting, you banked it all the way up to Boss 20&50. As you can see it on the Boss, she is on her retracement from last swing down. I am still waiting for Worker PASR.
  • #15,135
  • Edited 2:39pm Jan 14, 2011 2:18pm | Edited 2:39pm
Quoting Alexandra

I would re-characterize Strat's view to say that one can have an opinion, but that one need not be ashamed of exiting against it. Mechanical trading, even using limited MA's does constitiute an "opinion," as does PA, fundamantal knowlege or any other technique. Were it a "fact," then it should never fail. Trading is the science of exiting, after all.
Warning! The following post includes lewd and indecent charts - the daily is undressed and exposed - in all her glory - on short time frames. Anyone offended by the sight of 15 minute charts should avert their gaze now!

Here is a trade(eur.chf) I am in at the moment. Obviously, against the long-term trend, so careful consideration of exits critical.

On entry, possible exits I considered were:
1. below the low of dec30 bar (approx 124) ie stopped out at say 123.70, or
2. the gray lines marked

The close on 5Jan, while in the Start shadow, was the first indication of possible success and the HL occurring 10Jan improved confidence.
The run up this week saw first target met and a convincing close on the daily(13Jan) above the 5jan high and the 50ema . On this basis I was optimistic (or greedy?) for target two, marked in red on the chart below:
Attached Image


I would like to be out of this trade (counter-trend remember) by week's end but I've missed target by a pip or so - clearer on the lower time frames:
Attached Image


But wait a minute look at that spike down on the 4hour - let's have a closer look:
Attached Image


Yes, very clear on the 15min just how close to target we have come,and that the spike down did stop at target one (resistance turned support?) but more importantly what is going on to cause a spike down of that magnitude on the 15minute? Remember these charts aren't here for entries, exits or trading - we just want a closer look at what might be happening - and it looks like muggins here has forgotten an important European or Swiss planned News Release? After all, that spike down on the lower time frames occurred at exactly 18.00GMT (I think that's 1pm EST, start of the afternoon New York session?) So off to the FF calendar we go. What - no release!
Terrorist attack attack in Europe? Some other important but unanticipated news? Off to the news feed on my metatrader - what? Nothing?!
Quick! Try another broker's news feed - what? Nothing?! And another - still nothing!?!?

If anyone reading this knows the reason for this spike, please do let me know -otherwise, I'm gonna go onto another, slightly off-topic "rave" about the "games brokers play"

Oh, and the position? Closed it manually before the end of trading.
Why?
Check the monthly.
You can always get back in!

PS: was going to post one minute charts - really interesting as it showed a double spike down, a few minutes apart (didn't post 'em cos I thought that might be trying Strat's patience a bit too far and get me banned!)
  • #15,136
  • Jan 14, 2011 2:29pm Jan 14, 2011 2:29pm
Quoting trogger
Warning! The following post includes lewd and indecent charts - the daily is undressed and exposed - in all her glory - on short time frames. Anyone offended by the sight of 15 minute charts should avert their gaze now!

Here is a trade(eur.chf) I am in at the moment. Obviously, against the long-term trend, so careful consideration of exits critical.

On entry, possible exits I considered were:
1. below the low of dec30 bar (approx 124) ie stopped out at say 123.70,...
No Spike on mine - check what your broker is doing!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,137
  • Jan 14, 2011 2:57pm Jan 14, 2011 2:57pm
[quote=trogger;4315617]

PS: was going to post one minute charts - really interesting as it showed a double spike down, a few minutes apart ......

Sorry, couldn't resist! Here it is. The one minute chart.
Interesting, very interesting!
Can anybody offer an explanation?
Attached Image
  • #15,138
  • Jan 14, 2011 2:58pm Jan 14, 2011 2:58pm
Hi Trogger,

your spike must be an error in the data feed from your broker. I use Alpari UK and do not have such a spike.

Cheers,
Oliver
  • #15,139
  • Edited Jan 15, 2011 1:48pm Jan 14, 2011 3:59pm | Edited Jan 15, 2011 1:48pm
Quoting Olarion1975
Hi Trogger,

your spike must be an error in the data feed from your broker. I use Alpari UK and do not have such a spike.

Cheers,
Oliver
Thanks for the fast replies people.

Correct! This is broker specific!
Here is the Alpari chart(eur.chf) for comparison (FXCM do not have a spike either)
Attached Image


And the spike appears on all* euro pairs with this broker except eur.us itself.
examples:
Attached Image
Attached Image
Attached Image
Attached Image


And the major: Eur.US - which shows NO anomaly!
Attached Image


Now, how do you get a spike on every cross when you don't have any error in your feed for the major?

Also, IBFX also have an Australian Branch.
Their feed shows exactly the same spikes on the crosses but interestingly it also shows a spike on the major (eur.us)
Attached Image


* all with the exception of the Dannish Krone which also shows a spike but this preceded the spike in the other crosses by several hours. (have reached maximum no of charts that can be loaded for a single post, so can't show it here)
  • #15,140
  • Jan 14, 2011 4:03pm Jan 14, 2011 4:03pm
* all with the exception of the Dannish Krone which also shows a spike but this preceded the spike in the other crosses by several hours. (have reached maximum no of charts that can be loaded for a single post, so can't show it here)[/quote]


Shows the spike down in Krone that preceded the other crosses by several hours:
Attached Image
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