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AUD/USD

  • #27,221
  • Jan 12, 2011 7:08pm Jan 12, 2011 7:08pm
Quoting strategicfx
Australia to lose 1% of gdp due to floods

AUSTRALIA-ECONOMY/FLOODS (URGENT)
SYDNEY, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Floods inundating Australia's state of Queensland could cut up to 1 percentage point from economic growth, a member of the Reserve Bank of Australia's board was reported as saying, the largest estimate yet for the potential damage.
Warren McKibbin, an academic and a member of the central bank's policy making board, was quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald as saying a fair chunk of Queensland's economy had just stopped.
"If you look at the infrastructure damage and all the networks that have been broken, a hit to the economy of 1 per cent is not out of the question," McKibbin said.
A percentage point of Australia's A$1.3 trillion in annual gross domestic product (GDP) is equal to around A$13 billion. Most bank economists had estimated the drag could be at most 0.5 percentage points, with rebuilding adding to growth once the floods had passed. (Reporting by Wayne Cole)
  • #27,222
  • Jan 12, 2011 7:31pm Jan 12, 2011 7:31pm
Thoughts on A/U shortie here?

Price is still wanting to track higher.

Probably should have just exited on the spike, as one would think price should continue to drop. Then again, nothing is logical here, or at least logical in a way I understand it.
  • #27,223
  • Jan 12, 2011 7:33pm Jan 12, 2011 7:33pm
1% less GDP, and AUD is heading north ... This is a typical example, in which the fundamentals are worth nothing, but what matters are the big money.
  • #27,224
  • Jan 12, 2011 7:37pm Jan 12, 2011 7:37pm
I hate the fake pairs.
They usually spike to S/R levels "for better entries" and then reverse.

I wish I had the guts to palce orders at those levels for quick scalps.

If you look what happened with EURUSD on NFP Friday, we also had conficlting news, and Unmployment took precedence....

If economics priciples work the same over the pond, we should see this one going up....

I'd sell, but can't....my chart is yelling BUY.

Quoting Venice
Thoughts on A/U shortie here?

Price is still wanting to track higher.

Probably should have just exited on the spike, as one would think price should continue to drop. Then again, nothing is logical here, or at least logical in a way I understand it.
Attached Image
  • #27,225
  • Jan 12, 2011 7:48pm Jan 12, 2011 7:48pm
Yea, something strange.. lots of bad economic news but yet the currency still go up.. I'll just follow the chart, if it says long, I'll go long, if it says short, I'll go short...

I might jump into EUR/USD, it seems to make more sense there...

Cheers..
BC
  • #27,226
  • Jan 12, 2011 7:49pm Jan 12, 2011 7:49pm
The unemployment rate was last at around 5 per cent in January 2009.
But the data was not seen as good news by financial markets because the lower rate came from a decline in the number of people looking for work.
Figures just released from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show the participation rate fell from a record high of 66.1 per cent in November to 65.8 per cent in December seasonally adjusted.
Only 2,300 jobs were created in the month, well below the 25,000 predicted by economists.
About 1,700 full-time jobs were created and there were 600 new part time jobs.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...13/3112038.htm


let the big players play their money,i'll wait for another turn. i consider thursday is still "risk on" day and AUD 4.75% rates is truly tempting for people to buy in dips
  • #27,227
  • Jan 12, 2011 7:49pm Jan 12, 2011 7:49pm
Interest rates to stay on hold due to floods
  • #27,228
  • Jan 12, 2011 7:51pm Jan 12, 2011 7:51pm
Quoting strategicfx
Interest rates to stay on hold due to floods
Some analysts saying rates may drop due to devastation of floods
  • #27,229
  • Jan 12, 2011 7:53pm Jan 12, 2011 7:53pm
Quoting blackcat2
Yea, something strange.. lots of bad economic news but yet the currency still go up.. I'll just follow the chart, if it says long, I'll go long, if it says short, I'll go short...

I might jump into EUR/USD, it seems to make more sense there...

Cheers..
BC


I made the move from AUD to EUR and i can tell u from my last two months it doesnt make any sense,...atleast not right away,....
  • #27,230
  • Jan 12, 2011 7:54pm Jan 12, 2011 7:54pm
Quoting strategicfx
Interest rates to stay on hold due to floods
your opinion might be true

Even so, investors were disappointed by the jobs figures which imply that the Reserve Bank will have little cause to raise interest rates soon. The Australian dollar - often a barometer of interest rate expectations - sank about half a US cent after the release of the jobs figures to ease to 99.2 US cents in recent trading.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/joble...113-19oww.html
  • #27,231
  • Jan 12, 2011 7:54pm Jan 12, 2011 7:54pm
well -30 pips.... looks like we have to wait till us retail sales....
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #27,232
  • Jan 12, 2011 8:05pm Jan 12, 2011 8:05pm
this aussie should be sinking soon, US numbers if bad may keep it steady in the morning. I think once the major traders, i.e. from London and the rest of Europe open up tomorrow they will see that the Aussie is way to high for the numbers it produced and the fact its facing a humongous flood. I could see this falter soon, while I think the Euro will continue to rise past 1.3250. The Aussie I think will atleast take a pass at 1.9875 in the morning. We just have to wait, could see 1.9800 tomorrow.
  • #27,233
  • Jan 12, 2011 8:08pm Jan 12, 2011 8:08pm
OK guys, I seem to remember saying the Daily chart said ‘going up’. To me, it is still saying ‘up’. However, what happened still didn’t stop me from buying near the bottom of the sudden drop.
  • #27,234
  • Jan 12, 2011 8:19pm Jan 12, 2011 8:19pm
Quoting strategicfx
Some analysts saying rates may drop due to devastation of floods

Flood effects, rates
Economists, though, are looking beyond many of the year-end numbers as they attempt to assess the effects of Queensland's devastating floods on the wider economy, including the Reserve Bank's likely interest rate stance.
"The impact of the floods could be quite significant on the Queensland economy, and that makes a rate hike unlikely for the next few months,’’said Brian Redican, a senior economist at Macquarie Group.
  • #27,235
  • Jan 12, 2011 8:36pm Jan 12, 2011 8:36pm
Yes the floods will have negative effects on the economy in the short term. However, the amount of employment and work that will come out of this disaster, building, cleaning and other necessary work, will be huge.


  • #27,236
  • Jan 12, 2011 8:40pm Jan 12, 2011 8:40pm
Quoting Peter-FX
Yes the floods will have negative effects on the economy in the short term. However, the amount of employment and work that will come out of this disaster, building, cleaning and other necessary work, will be huge.
... and the value of the now scarce resources will increase too. Benefit for the aussie. Nevertheless I'm still biased to the short side.
  • #27,237
  • Jan 12, 2011 8:41pm Jan 12, 2011 8:41pm
Quoting Venice
Thoughts on A/U shortie here?

Price is still wanting to track higher.

Probably should have just exited on the spike, as one would think price should continue to drop. Then again, nothing is logical here, or at least logical in a way I understand it.
Ausie dollar is strong and, unlike many other major economies, I remember reading an article last year which said they were happy for their currency to remain strong.
If sentiment can be used in forex, my insight would be that, particularly with the current disaster, they will do what they can do bolster the AD so that they are seen to remain strong, hence my reason for placing a long just after that sharp drop following the employment news.

Still, we're really not meant to think in forex, and it might drop again in a few mins, lol.
  • #27,238
  • Jan 12, 2011 8:46pm Jan 12, 2011 8:46pm
Quoting Lorna
Ausie dollar is strong and, unlike many other major economies, I remember reading an article last year which said they were happy for their currency to remain strong.
If sentiment can be used in forex, my insight would be that, particularly with the current disaster, they will do what they can do bolster the AD so that they are seen to remain strong, hence my reason for placing a long just after that sharp drop following the employment news.

Still, we're really not meant to think in forex, and it might drop again in a few mins, lol.
appreciate the thought ^^ and i love aussie dollar too, been living in Sydney for months.

actually i prefer to long since i can get big rollover, who doesn't? yet it seems too high for me to put long term sizable longs atm
  • #27,239
  • Jan 12, 2011 8:54pm Jan 12, 2011 8:54pm
Quoting Lorna
Ausie dollar is strong and, unlike many other major economies, I remember reading an article last year which said they were happy for their currency to remain strong.
If sentiment can be used in forex, my insight would be that, particularly with the current disaster, they will do what they can do bolster the AD so that they are seen to remain strong, hence my reason for placing a long just after that sharp drop following the employment news.

Still, we're really not meant to think in forex, and it might drop again in a few mins, lol.
So true, I entered short on a set up that's not so fit my rules as I read so much opinons on bearish AU. It's so close to SL now. Lesson learned.
  • #27,240
  • Jan 12, 2011 8:56pm Jan 12, 2011 8:56pm
Quoting dokterriza
appreciate the thought ^^ and i love aussie dollar too, been living in Sydney for months.

actually i prefer to long since i can get big rollover, who doesn't? yet it seems too high for me to put long term sizable longs atm
I've never been to Sydney though I've heard there is more 'action' there than in say Perth or Melbourne (which I have visited and found far too quiet). The 'missing link' (a term I've found easier on my mind than the not quite ex but definitely missing husband), he moved to Perth for work about 5 years ago. He obviously liked it and sent me an email after a month to say he wasn't coming back. No idea where he is now but I do have a friend there - someone else who moved with work but he actually took his family with him, hmm. I keep in touch and, well I know Perth is so dry they have no problems with flooding but seems they are having forest fire problems just now. Seems a heck of a shame that such a great country is plagued by so many disasters.
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