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Nanningbob 4h trading system ver. 5.0

  • #3,581
  • Jan 2, 2011 11:17am Jan 2, 2011 11:17am
I think I would have to agree with lenoxer. Just new to the thread.. I trade the middle (last 5 or 6 years) out so I am curious on the thread. In trend trading you have a lower win rate (20-30%) but higher rewards if you can milk the run appropriately. In reversal trading, like this; there is a higher win rate but bigger draw down. No one, can predict with much more than 80% accuracy but the other 20% kill ya as the market keeps going. I think that there is no magic entry point at 100% accuracy. I think what is missing is somewhat the obvious. One that is, is to wait for the long run to get over with...looking for that cycle bottom--ie that weird higher low in the bigger chart so you can get busy choppin wood for a few weeks in a consolidation period. maybe use the Adx of 8 on the daily or 4 hour or a a stochastic pop setup to see money making coming...... All markets extend and range at some point so no indicator works. I mean, if you look at the market right now today. They, just got done extending. On the euro for example, if you throw a moving average of 80, you will see that the average is flat and just starting to turn up but the market popped up which means everyone is caught by suprise; therefore a short would be in order. If you throw the adx of 8 on it; it will show a pop. Add this to your current entry and maybe you can reduce some of those unnecessary drawdowns. I mean, if everything is down, down down, why would you want to reverse unless the market tells you something. I would be more apt to short on a third push up.
  • #3,582
  • Jan 2, 2011 7:55pm Jan 2, 2011 7:55pm
Quoting Lenoxer
[left]Dear Bob,

[font=Times New Roman][size=3]Have read your new MM document and your trend trading 1.0. Thanks for all your work. You are a generous and idealistic teacher. That is refreshing. But, I'm going to disagree with your radical change of approach. I think that you are abandoning ship just as you're getting to the practical and emotional core of the method's truly disturbing issues---and every method has them. Because what is most nervous-making about a system's too-excessive DD or too-low %...
It is not so much as abandoning ship is I have had my legs cut out from underneath me. I dont believe you can trade this system in strong trending markets without the use of higher leverage of 50:1 and for non usa pairs 25:1. I am not willing to put up that kind of money to trade the DD you experience multi level trading. Neither am I comfortable with putting my money overseas with a foreign broker. I have no recourse if they do funny stuff with my money. With the increased funds my rate of return becomes small enough that other financial vehicles are better choices and I dont have to spend time trading all day. It is a financial decision. Frankly with this system you need the power to hedge your trades in an emergency or lose your account or take a big whopping loss. Hedging allows you to just sit until whatever firestorm hits passes and then you can set up shop again and trade your way out of the hole. I cant hedge, I cant leverage my positions, and if the regulators force me to close positions in order that I open them there goes my recovery system. I know it is frustrating to you guys that dont have to face these regs but I do. I am sorry if you feel I have aban doned the system but it was not my choice to do so. It is a reality I have to face. Do you really think I want to abandon a system that created over 10,000 pips profit in one year? Why would I want to change that? But that is what I am forced to face. Sorry, I hope you hear my heart's cry in this post.
  • #3,583
  • Jan 2, 2011 8:15pm Jan 2, 2011 8:15pm
Quoting 4XWeezal
I think I would have to agree with lenoxer. Just new to the thread.. I trade the middle (last 5 or 6 years) out so I am curious on the thread. In trend trading you have a lower win rate (20-30%) but higher rewards if you can milk the run appropriately. In reversal trading, like this; there is a higher win rate but bigger draw down. No one, can predict with much more than 80% accuracy but the other 20% kill ya as the market keeps going. I think that there is no magic entry point at 100% accuracy. I think what is missing is somewhat the obvious....
I think looking at the TMA crossing the MA240 in my new system will work with this. I mean that is how I discovered it trying to solve problems with DD at times. when they are diverging dont trade when they are converging you could trade. That may work very well as a final filter to the system. Worth taking a look at. I hope to get an angle indicator which will help with that decision and the use it with the 4H charts. In fact when they start to converge the principals of this system will probably be added to that system but I need a convergence/divergence indicator that works with the 240MA and the TMA center line. Once I have that in hand we may have a major improvement here. Just a thought.
  • #3,584
  • Jan 3, 2011 5:35am Jan 3, 2011 5:35am
Quoting Lenoxer

So, I would urge you to deal as the world's expert on 5.0 with its demanding problems rather than as a comparative neophyte on 1.0's. Pick your pairs more carefully, lighten up on position sizes, space your trades wider if you expect more volatility, manage your expectations to expect less return because you're opting for more safety---work out the issues acceptably and keep practicing. Make that protocol.

I agree with Lenoxer. I just came to your system and have been importing its rules into my own. I have found myself with over a 90% success rate... with the proper pairs.

I have been using the MT4 EA Backtester in visual mode to backtest the strategy over the past 18 months. It is a long process that takes me approximately 4-6 hours per pair. But from it I have realized that the strategy must be tweaked for each pair. And some pairs are just too risky.

For instance; the strategy works almost perfectly with the USD/JPY. I have not had to take more than a second entry. It is a safe, relatively involitile pair. The GBP/JPY however, I stopped after a few months. The profits were amazing but I ended up blowing out a year's profits in one trade.

I think you must have had an experience like the one that brought me to your system. A huge DD will shake you to your very core. I threw my old strategy out the window. But after I found yours I pulled in some of its tenants and now; I have another strategy to work on.

Again thanks for all your work... and keep your chin up. You may just need to put more work into testing and tweaking the strategy for each pair.
  • #3,585
  • Jan 3, 2011 6:43am Jan 3, 2011 6:43am
Dear Bob,

You can put your money safely in Saxo Bank in Denmark. You will not get ripped off. You can hedge and get 100:1 leverage. I've been there a number of years with 6 figures of money and while the spreads are mediocre the service is very good and they won't steal your funds. In short, if the above are your concerns, you can keep trading 5.0. Perhaps a significant negative for you: they don't do EAs.

Hope this helps.

Lenoxer
  • #3,586
  • Jan 3, 2011 10:26am Jan 3, 2011 10:26am
Quoting Lenoxer
Dear Bob,

You can put your money safely in Saxo Bank in Denmark. You will not get ripped off. You can hedge and get 100:1 leverage. I've been there a number of years with 6 figures of money and while the spreads are mediocre the service is very good and they won't steal your funds. In short, if the above are your concerns, you can keep trading 5.0. Perhaps a significant negative for you: they don't do EAs.

Hope this helps.

Lenoxer
EAs are the only way I can trade because I am not home 10-14 hours a day. I set them when I see a set up and then go to work. I make too many mistakes manual trading because I have very little screen time and have a tendency to force things. EAs are my self discipline that I dont have personally.
  • #3,587
  • Jan 5, 2011 1:47am Jan 5, 2011 1:47am
hello.
I'm really sorry to take this line very late.
I downloaded the zip files but I do not understand how to use this method because there are 3 in each zip file and zip file there are plenty of file.
I do not even know if that's what EA EA but there are plenty in zip files) that takes a position or whether it is us.

I not speak English so I use google translate but it does not help much because it is very difficult to translate some terms.
if there is a brief document to use this method it suits me well or if someone could try to explain how to use all its files so I know I ask a lot but please try to understand that I do a lot effort but when you do not speak your language (I am French) 200 pages translated with google translate google translate is not possible because very badly translated technical terms.
thank you for your help
cordially
  • #3,588
  • Jan 8, 2011 5:01pm Jan 8, 2011 5:01pm
Quoting Lenoxer
[left]Dear Bob,

[font=Times New Roman][size=3]Have read your new MM document and your trend trading 1.0. Thanks for all your work. You are a generous and idealistic teacher. That is refreshing. But, I'm going to disagree with your radical change of approach. I think that you are abandoning ship just as you're getting to the practical and emotional core of the method's truly disturbing issues---and every method has them. Because what is most nervous-making...

Chapéu , Lenoxer

WHAT A POST

my respect


Nanningbob, a great Trader like you should start digging into Woodies CCI indicator

You could make the difference there
Account deleted
  • #3,589
  • Jan 9, 2011 5:36am Jan 9, 2011 5:36am
Hello. I discovered this thread recently and I have to add my compliments to Bob and Steve as well, really great work..
I just wanted to ask for the results of the system for the last four months of 2010 and win % for the whole 2010. Or are they in the thread and I just missed them? Thanks a lot.
  • #3,590
  • Jan 11, 2011 4:03am Jan 11, 2011 4:03am
I just spend 3 months reseaching and analysing the forex market (in progress).

After 1 month of demo trading i'm up 19 of 20 trades ($1.966 / $302 DD) with this system, (typical about 30 pip SL / 40 pip TP = Low risk on less volitale pairs).

INSANE? impossible? I thought so.. I am quiting while I am ahead! :-P

I have stopped using it after reading about the Nanningbob 1.0 Trend system.

Despite you feel the market is to volitail to work with NB 5.3, I will probabaly use it as an additional trading tool. (the visual back testing hit ratio is crazy).

Excellent work.
  • #3,591
  • Jan 11, 2011 7:47pm Jan 11, 2011 7:47pm
I am looking at the 240MA 48MA on the 1.0 system being adapted to this system but on the 4H chart. That would be a 60 by 12 smoothed MA. If price is running south or north of both you may want to be cautious about your countertrades. Just some thoughts for now. They maybe the filters I have looked for to help deal with DD.
  • #3,592
  • Jan 11, 2011 7:49pm Jan 11, 2011 7:49pm
Quoting NewFoundWea.
I just spend 3 months reseaching and analysing the forex market (in progress).

After 1 month of demo trading i'm up 19 of 20 trades ($1.966 / $302 DD) with this system, (typical about 30 pip SL / 40 pip TP = Low risk on less volitale pairs).

INSANE? impossible? I thought so.. I am quiting while I am ahead! :-P

I have stopped using it after reading about the Nanningbob 1.0 Trend system.

Despite you feel the market is to volitail to work with NB 5.3, I will probabaly use it as an additional trading tool. (the visual back testing hit ratio...

When markets are ranging or not trending heavily I often ran 80% win ratio with this system. It is why I loved it some much and used it for the last couple of years. Again USA regs make this difficult to do now.
  • #3,593
  • Jan 12, 2011 1:11am Jan 12, 2011 1:11am
Does anyone have a source for these two indys that with an audible and visual alarm when a cross occurs?

1. ab asymmetric ema band oscillator

2. ind_DivPeakTroughRSI_SW_1

If none exists yet, could someone code it from this thread?

Many thanks
  • #3,594
  • Jan 12, 2011 1:43am Jan 12, 2011 1:43am
Quoting nanningbob
I am looking at the 240MA 48MA on the 1.0 system being adapted to this system but on the 4H chart. That would be a 60 by 12 smoothed MA. If price is running south or north of both you may want to be cautious about your countertrades. Just some thoughts for now. They maybe the filters I have looked for to help deal with DD.
I think that is very wise considering the 4h chart shows so much more data and is so widely used by the pro's I know.

I am using a 60ma x 5ma and using market structure (HH's and LL's). In the first couple of days I was trading normal and got some DD but have made about 350 pips in the last 4 days. I was looking at an ADX indicator for trend determination but am toggling back and forth. I don't think I need it really.

Today I am using the 6.1 ea (5x2 cross, but you know that) to enter trades that are not close to the BB. This is on the EU and EJ. EU has yet to enter. We could use the #5 ea for that as well. but I have a 5.3/6.1 template that I combined and went with that.

As I was going into DD last year I was wondering why we did not trade with the trend, but I love being in trades and want to make pips on both sides of the trade so I LOVE counter trading.
  • #3,595
  • Jan 12, 2011 2:08am Jan 12, 2011 2:08am
Quoting nanningbob
I am looking at the 240MA 48MA on the 1.0 system being adapted to this system but on the 4H chart. That would be a 60 by 12 smoothed MA. If price is running south or north of both you may want to be cautious about your countertrades. Just some thoughts for now. They maybe the filters I have looked for to help deal with DD.
Hi,

Steve Hopwood's EA runs on a 1H chart.
Could the EA be amended to incorporate your thoughts here?
  • #3,596
  • Jan 12, 2011 8:42am Jan 12, 2011 8:42am
Quoting nanningbob
When markets are ranging or not trending heavily I often ran 80% win ratio with this system. It is why I loved it some much and used it for the last couple of years. Again USA regs make this difficult to do now.
I have been trading with this system for two weeks and 3 days. I used 50 leverage and only traded penny,2 cents or 3 cents lot. The result is more than 4000pip profit and 10% increase in my account equity! I am so happy with this system! Could you tell me why USA regs make this difficult to do now? Thanks again!
  • #3,597
  • Jan 12, 2011 2:08pm Jan 12, 2011 2:08pm
Quoting shiningstar
I have been trading with this system for two weeks and 3 days. I used 50 leverage and only traded penny,2 cents or 3 cents lot. The result is more than 4000pip profit and 10% increase in my account equity! I am so happy with this system! Could you tell me why USA regs make this difficult to do now? Thanks again!
NICE SHOW!!!! 4k pips. That is better than Bob I think?

The reason why is the reduced margin from 100:1 to 50:1 and the FIFO, but the FIFO rules do not apply to mb trading which is who I use as a broker. you can only trade full dimes with them though.

so because of current market conditions being more volatile and trending more the counter-trend systems can get into big DD. It will come and you will have to learn how to use the recovery system to keep profits. This is my 4th month and trading the hardest months of the year and all have been profitable!!! I only demo traded for 2 weeks and the rest have been live.

So what I think is happening is that Bob thinks is developing a trend system he is really developing a way to enhance this system to filter out trades that will run. In essence, we want to trade with the overall trend on the daily/weekly chart but use the 4h for entry on pullbacks.

btw I have made ~500 pips in the last 5 trading days so I love this system too,
  • #3,598
  • Jan 12, 2011 2:48pm Jan 12, 2011 2:48pm
Thanks for your advice Nanningbob.

(My only drawdown trade was GBP/JPY, didn't know at the time it was a NOT-rec. pair, and the BLUE line hadn't crossed over either )

I believe 80% win-rate is possible in normal economic conditions.

------------------------------------------

Another (profitable?) discovery..

Before when the marked had normal safe heavens, i found out that when the MACD was approaching a new HIGH or LOW (85/15 levels), it was very useful (visual backtesting) to pay close attention to the M15 timeframe, with the RWB lines in place..

It would seem it could increase profit and reduce D.D. with about 20-30% (EUR/USD).

Don't know if this undermines the system, or if it is a compliment?
  • #3,599
  • Jan 12, 2011 9:12pm Jan 12, 2011 9:12pm
hey where do i find the instructions to the system, i downloaded the zip file but i see no instructions on how to use the strategy. can you trade standard lots using the ea as well?
  • #3,600
  • Jan 13, 2011 1:04am Jan 13, 2011 1:04am
Quoting dappa
hey where do i find the instructions to the system, i downloaded the zip file but i see no instructions on how to use the strategy. can you trade standard lots using the ea as well?
Instructions are in a word file included in post one on page one. You can trade any lot size you want as long as you have the account balance for it. You need to be able to survive at least 10,000 pips drawdown. If you have a large account balance I would go for even more.

This may be different when you use the 6.0/6.1 rules but I am not up to speed with those, maybe someone else can comment.

I am still with 5.3 and I am still happy with it's performance.
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