I think I would have to agree with lenoxer. Just new to the thread.. I trade the middle (last 5 or 6 years) out so I am curious on the thread. In trend trading you have a lower win rate (20-30%) but higher rewards if you can milk the run appropriately. In reversal trading, like this; there is a higher win rate but bigger draw down. No one, can predict with much more than 80% accuracy but the other 20% kill ya as the market keeps going. I think that there is no magic entry point at 100% accuracy. I think what is missing is somewhat the obvious. One that is, is to wait for the long run to get over with...looking for that cycle bottom--ie that weird higher low in the bigger chart so you can get busy choppin wood for a few weeks in a consolidation period. maybe use the Adx of 8 on the daily or 4 hour or a a stochastic pop setup to see money making coming...... All markets extend and range at some point so no indicator works. I mean, if you look at the market right now today. They, just got done extending. On the euro for example, if you throw a moving average of 80, you will see that the average is flat and just starting to turn up but the market popped up which means everyone is caught by suprise; therefore a short would be in order. If you throw the adx of 8 on it; it will show a pop. Add this to your current entry and maybe you can reduce some of those unnecessary drawdowns. I mean, if everything is down, down down, why would you want to reverse unless the market tells you something. I would be more apt to short on a third push up.
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