7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy | Page 137 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Big Dog Trading Secret 272 replies

Moving Markets at 7am - 1pm PST? (3pm - 9pm GMT) 2 replies

Question about big dog strat... 2 replies

Trading The Big Dog Pack ..howllll 26 replies

Who are the champion DOG pickers??? 6 replies

Attachments: 7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy
Exit Attachments

7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #2,721
  • Dec 26, 2010 6:08am Dec 26, 2010 6:08am
hi all, first time I am sorry for my english I learn only 1 year :-p

Please can somebody tell me what you will do in situation on the screen ? if I have TP 30pips and market make only 20 pips do you keep market to go on full SL ? Or if you trailing I thing 15 pips is little can you give me some tip please ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: whatnowii.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #2,722
  • Dec 27, 2010 10:13am Dec 27, 2010 10:13am
Quoting slc12312
Yes I agree with that. Always try to place your trades with the direction of the trend. When I was using this system, I rarely ever placed a pending order on both ends of the box, many times at the end of the session you will have a price reversal that will retrace enough to stop out your original entry, triggering an entry on the other side of the box only to reverse and continue the trend. It wasn't any fun being stopped out on both ends.

good luck!

Hey SLC,

Hope you had a happy holiday. Quick question...What do you use to define a trend. Is there an indi that you like or just eyeball it?

I've been eyeballing it from the action of the London session with pretty good luck. The trick is not getting caught in the usual pullback when NY opens at 8am EST.

ScottyB
  • #2,723
  • Dec 27, 2010 1:11pm Dec 27, 2010 1:11pm
Quoting hooky
hi all, first time I am sorry for my english I learn only 1 year :-p

Please can somebody tell me what you will do in situation on the screen ? if I have TP 30pips and market make only 20 pips do you keep market to go on full SL ? Or if you trailing I thing 15 pips is little can you give me some tip please ?
Hooky I don't know what the time frame is on that chart you posted. However, it looks as if you are in an uptrend. If it were me, I would close out part of the order so that I would have some profit. the problem with this system is that you really should babysit the orders. Personally, I feel any pip is a good pip, so even if you didn't hit your target (and you might or might not depending on your risk tolerance and your stop level), like I said, I would close most of the position or definitley close it all and and enjoy the win.

I know it seems easy, but don't let greed get to you. Any pip won is so much better than any pip lost. With this system in that timeframe, you WILL see reversals, and more often than not, you will get stopped . . . unless you have a huge stoploss, and if you do, you probably aren't using good money management. Risk 1-3% and you will live to trade another day. Remember 10-20 pips a day trading full lots is $500-1,000 a week. I used to shoot for around 75 a week, on one pair only.

Long answer for a short question, sorry!

Scott
  • #2,724
  • Dec 27, 2010 1:15pm Dec 27, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting ibthescottyb
Hey SLC,

Hope you had a happy holiday. Quick question...What do you use to define a trend. Is there an indi that you like or just eyeball it?

I've been eyeballing it from the action of the London session with pretty good luck. The trick is not getting caught in the usual pullback when NY opens at 8am EST.

ScottyB
Yes, that pullback can get you, and most often does. That is why I usually will just close and order and be happy with what I got.

No I don't use an indi for the trend. I eyeball it, but do so from the top down starting at the weekly. I also look for points of S&R on the 1 and 4hr charts. My charts are fairly full of stuff, a lot of ema's that show the trend on each timeframe.

Thanks for the good wishes. good luck in the upcoming year.

Scott
  • #2,725
  • Jan 4, 2011 5:03pm Jan 4, 2011 5:03pm
Today on EUR/USD, the trend was up -- so I would only go long --however, it went broke short of the box -- I kept thinking it has to sooner or later reverse and go long with the trend -- but it kept going lower for 130 pips. So I thought about this and looked at support and resistance on the daily and 4h TF -- I should have seen that a strong resistance level was hit at the top of the box on the daily. What I am thinking now is that support and resistance plays a more important role than does the trend. So from now on I will look at support and resistance first -- then look at the trend. Btw, figuring out what the trend is --is not easy at all. One in the end only ends up guessing what they think it is. Different TF show different trends --so one has to look at each TF and then make an opinion -- one ends up guessing --no one really knows what the real trend is. Support and resistance is more straignt forward and accurate --hence more reliable. There is not so much guessing involved -- it either is s/r or it isn't.
  • #2,726
  • Jan 5, 2011 6:54am Jan 5, 2011 6:54am
What I have found helpful is to have a 2nd instance of MT4 running. On that instance, I have 5 charts running 5m, 15m, 1hr, 4hr and daily.

On these charts, I have Barry's S/R indi. A very helpful fractal based S/R indi.

Hope this helps,

ScottyB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Support and Resistance (Barry).mq4   2 KB | 652 downloads
File Type: ex4 Support and Resistance (Barry).ex4   2 KB | 440 downloads
  • #2,727
  • Jan 5, 2011 8:55am Jan 5, 2011 8:55am
Quoting hooky
hi all, first time I am sorry for my english I learn only 1 year :-p

Please can somebody tell me what you will do in situation on the screen ? if I have TP 30pips and market make only 20 pips do you keep market to go on full SL ? Or if you trailing I thing 15 pips is little can you give me some tip please ?
One thing that I do on my sets, is that I open 3 trades at one time. Through back testing I have found that a 10-15 pip take profit works about 80+% of the time. So order #1 has a TP of 15 pips. When it hits, I move orders 2 and 3 to breakeven +1 pip.

In your example, I would have made 17 pips on the north side and 17 pips on the south side.

Orders 2 and 3 I will also have either a 25 pip trailing stop or I will have the SL set at S/R points. Depending on price action of the past few hours.

Just my opinion, but it works for me.

ScottyB
  • #2,728
  • Jan 5, 2011 12:15pm Jan 5, 2011 12:15pm
Quoting pbw
Today on EUR/USD, the trend was up -- so I would only go long --however, it went broke short of the box -- I kept thinking it has to sooner or later reverse and go long with the trend -- but it kept going lower for 130 pips. So I thought about this and looked at support and resistance on the daily and 4h TF -- I should have seen that a strong resistance level was hit at the top of the box on the daily. What I am thinking now is that support and resistance plays a more important role than does the trend. So from now on I will look at support and...
Which ever way you do it will work because they play hand in hand. Longer term trends are more reliable than short term trends, unless you are trading really short term. Regardless of the trend in whatever TF you use, it will usually react to S&R levels, with the higher TF's dictating market flow. So if price was falling in an uptrend that is when I would start looking for a buy at either S&R or fibs, or both if you have overlaping indicators, putting my stop just below the S&R. I haven't look at the charts in a while, but if the trend was up, I would have only placed a pending buy on the upside...and if it didn't get hit, then I'd close it up and trade another day.

Scottyb has a good handle on this and seems to be doing just fine. Try his indicators and see it that helps. Fractals help too.
  • #2,729
  • Jan 7, 2011 11:11am Jan 7, 2011 11:11am
Timing is becoming more and more important in Forex. Thanks for sharing.
  • #2,730
  • Jan 11, 2011 12:33pm Jan 11, 2011 12:33pm
Quote
One thing that I do on my sets, is that I open 3 trades at one time. Through back testing I have found that a 10-15 pip take profit works about 80+% of the time. So order #1 has a TP of 15 pips. When it hits, I move orders 2 and 3 to breakeven +1 pip.

In your example, I would have made 17 pips on the north side and 17 pips on the south side.

Orders 2 and 3 I will also have either a 25 pip trailing stop or I will have the SL set at S/R points. Depending on price action of the past few hours.

Just my opinion, but it works for me.

ScottyB...

Very interesting. What is your stop loss for order #1 -- if the 10 - 15 pip target is not hit. And for order #2,#3 would it not be better to have a ten pip buffer if case there is a reverse.
  • #2,731
  • Jan 12, 2011 7:13am Jan 12, 2011 7:13am
Good morning,

SL for all 3 orders is the opposite side of the box or 50 Pips or S/R based on the indi I posted. I also look at the other time frames and PA of the last few hours to choose which I think is most reasonable.

Hope it helps,

ScottyB
  • #2,732
  • Edited 11:11am Jan 12, 2011 11:00am | Edited 11:11am
Your method sounds interesting but I am not really getting it. If you place three orders -- and your stop loss is the other side of the box for all three orders -- that would be a huge loss -- and does not make sense from a risk / reward perspective. So what am I not getting? Also what are your targets for order 2 and 3 -- cheers.
  • #2,733
  • Jan 12, 2011 11:20am Jan 12, 2011 11:20am
Quoting pbw
Your method sounds interesting but I am not really getting it. If you place three orders -- and your stop loss is the other side of the box for all three orders -- that would be a huge loss -- and does not make sense from a risk / reward perspective. So what am I not getting? Also what are your targets for order 2 and 3 -- cheers.

My "initial" targets for 2 and 3 are 200 pips each. But, as I monitor it throughout the day I will move SL along S/R lines to lock in profits as I go. Also, if the price gets near the the 200 pip target, I may remove the TP and just use S/R lines control my exit or may throw on a TS. I may close out order #2 and just let #3 run with a TS.

Every day is different. I don't believe there is a "one size, fits all" solution.

The first order is simply a safety. AS long as it hits, the next two trades are free because I move them to BE+1 pip.

If the price retraces and hits the BE and then goes back in the direction I was hoping for. Well, I have the option to re-enter or just take the profit and wait until tomorrow.

ScottyB
  • #2,734
  • Jan 12, 2011 11:26am Jan 12, 2011 11:26am
Quoting pbw
Your method sounds interesting but I am not really getting it. If you place three orders -- and your stop loss is the other side of the box for all three orders -- that would be a huge loss -- and does not make sense from a risk / reward perspective. So what am I not getting? Also what are your targets for order 2 and 3 -- cheers.
If I read right, the 3 orders total a stable risk %. For example, if one would normally go with risk of 3%, each order would be worth 1%.
  • #2,735
  • Jan 12, 2011 2:04pm Jan 12, 2011 2:04pm
Yes that is what I am not getting. Your stop loss method. If all three orders are entered and they reverse -which they often they do -- do you stop loss each order at the other end of the box? -- that would be if box size is 50 pips -- 3 x 50 = 150 pips -- that type of risk is irrational.

Also how do you target 200 pips --when most pairs only have an ATR of 150 on most days?

And which pairs do you trade -- cheers.
  • #2,736
  • Jan 12, 2011 5:15pm Jan 12, 2011 5:15pm
The size of the lots makes the risk alright.

1x50 at 1.0 lot equals 3x50 at .33 lot. You adjust risk with smaller lot sizes.
  • #2,737
  • Jan 12, 2011 5:51pm Jan 12, 2011 5:51pm
3 orders at 50 pips SL with proper money management works for me.

The total set of three orders if it were to lose represents 1.5% loss. Actually on my account it represents a .75% (less than one %) loss. I am about to increase lot size, but 1.5% is my max risk target for the three orders combined.

From a trading perspective,

Another way to look at it would be that you could open 1 order and if it goes in your favor, close a third at 10-15 pips, create a SL at BE, let the balance run, then close another third at some point, then close the final third at another point.

Instead of closing a partial position, I just have 3 orders at a third the size of one order. If that makes sense <shrug>.

For math purposes...

You could have ONE order at 1.0 lot with a SL of 50 pips.

or, you could have THREE .33 lot orders with a SL of 50 pips each.

The risk is the same.

EDIT - Hehe Mudder beat me to it LOL

I've attached a jpg for my trades today to demonstrate. This screen shot is from earlier today.

Took a 150 pip loss on EURJPY. EURUSD and GBPUSD are still in process.

These are the pairs I trade on this strategy. I chose them based on the history that they were the most consistant to breakout around the same time each day.

Currently both EU and GU still have 2 orders open on each with over 100 pips in profit locked in by SL. So I have made back the loss on EURJPY and will have a green (profitable) day.

Upon opening, my SL is based on 50 pips. I moved it up as the day goes on to each new support line. If the box is less than 50 pips, I will use the bottom of the box. If more than 50 pips and there is a S/R line in the box, I use the S/R line. If the box is greater than 50 pips and there is no S/R line in the box, I use 50 pips. I RARELY use a SL greater than 50 pips unless the charts oon other TF give reason to. But if I am not comfortable with the rules above...I just don't trade that day on that pair.

I choose a 50 pip SL and 200 pip TP simply as arbitrary numbers in the event of lost connection. I move my SL and TP based on s/r as a general rule.

I hope this cleared matters up and did not confuse them more. LOL.

The breakout indicator I use can be found at the thread "A simple london breakout" Good thread.

Have a great day all!

ScottyB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11211 trades.jpg Size: 217 KB
  • #2,738
  • Jan 12, 2011 8:28pm Jan 12, 2011 8:28pm
yes that clearified it --cheers
  • #2,739
  • Feb 2, 2011 9:15pm Feb 2, 2011 9:15pm
It looks like market condition have and are changing. The ATR for most pairs is down significantly. EUR/USD is about 120 pips now. This means break out for the big dog are going to be less. I am finding that the trends and break outs are recently much smaller and the pairs go into range. It seems most days it is best not to trade. How are others finding it?
  • #2,740
  • Feb 3, 2011 8:06pm Feb 3, 2011 8:06pm
Is there a PDF for this strategy floating around anywhere for people like me who just found this thread? Just wondering before I start reading LOL
5 traders viewing now