- #6,028
- Jan 12, 2011 9:00am Jan 12, 2011 9:00am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: living deliberately | 11,122 Posts
- #6,029
- Jan 12, 2011 9:10am Jan 12, 2011 9:10am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: living deliberately | 11,122 Posts
- #6,030
- Jan 12, 2011 9:22am Jan 12, 2011 9:22am
Thanks very much for your time in putting this information together. I am sure there are a few of us who are here to learn that will benefit if we can apply this into action. The only doubt I have is that there is a level of artistary to this method that has yet to be decoded into a formal model for us to learn from. Best Regards
1/ As stated above, always know what higher time frames are doing. Begin with weekly (zoom out as far as you can) to understand how the pair moves over time. When you understand where weekly will go in the next 6 months, move to daily. If you can't understand what's happening at D1/H4 level. Don't trade this pair. Your odds of success are better in a casino.
2/ Do not sell in oversold areas or buy in overbought areas. Identifying those areas in all this art is about. It's subjective. It's how you look at the chart. Others my look at this differently. Back to the original sample on GBP/CHF : I see it in overbought area. It's at 50% fib retracement of the last down wave. It's in D1 Murrey Math overbought. It's in H4 Murrey Math extremely overbought area. Putting this all together : all my triggers are strongly short. I would never enter a long now on this pair (regarding H4/H1, if you zoom to M5, you may see something different).
3/ Now that you know what you are looking for (short or long : see #1 and #2 above), you have to identify possible reversal areas. Wait for the price to get there. If you did a good job, you'll be right only 50-70% of the time. If you're right too often, it probably means you're piking risky areas and you'll get a lot of loosers.
4/ Use PA to confirm your guess and time your entry when the price reaches your area of choice. Do not enter too early. Beware of news. Etc. You already know all of that. Identifying PA moves is the hardest part. If not sure, stay out. This is also hard ! But you should not be afraid of missing a bad trade ...
All this constitues an art. I think that PA strategies (PA, MA, Fibs, MM based systems) are the only valid ones. They are quite easy to understand. But they require a lot of time to master. Anyway, your success will be in discipline, patience and humility. That's what makes trading an art. As I mentionned, I'm far from being 100% succesful myself. Overall, this is not because of my analysis. In fact, every (let's say 90% !) trade I enter proves at some point it could have been a winner. But, my lack of patience, bad timing for my entries, early or lately exists, too tight stops (maybe too large sometime) are killing my success for now. When I analyse my lost after the facts, I often find I didn't followed my plan : price was not in my initial area of choice (but I was afraid of missing my entry), I had no confirmation from PA when I jumped in, I didn't managed the trade correctly (ie when to bed with too large stops), etc. I feel I'm getting better day after day, but this requires time to learn.
I agree, it's an art
Don't just be a sheep : make your own idea of it.
- #6,032
- Jan 12, 2011 9:42am Jan 12, 2011 9:42am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: living deliberately | 11,122 Posts
pivot and drop - prices fell due to supply/sellers
now the same area has changed to a cluster - therefore there is more a balance between sellers and buyers @ that level - let it resolve - but because prices have already fallen from that level its likely to go a little higher or MUCH higher
- #6,035
- Jan 12, 2011 9:49am Jan 12, 2011 9:49am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: living deliberately | 11,122 Posts
- #6,036
- Jan 12, 2011 9:51am Jan 12, 2011 9:51am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: living deliberately | 11,122 Posts
- #6,038
- Jan 12, 2011 10:01am Jan 12, 2011 10:01am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: living deliberately | 11,122 Posts
sold the DAX
PA has not confirmed short but l am in, low risk as the supply zone is tight
- #6,039
- Jan 12, 2011 10:06am Jan 12, 2011 10:06am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: living deliberately | 11,122 Posts
+1. As I posted I'll watch to short below 1.3123. 1.3090 is my prefered level (H1 MM +1 level, near round number). The pair moved down sharply (75 pips in one hour) after the first test today. There's something interesting here. 1.3062/1.3092/1.3123 are key levels to wath for on H1 & H4. If broken upside target is 1.3184, which is between 50 & 61.8% fib retracement. Another nice level to short.
Need to watch PA and be cautious.
not taking any positions on eu - fcuking stacked levels,, traps
