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Price is everything

Quoting redsword11
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scalped
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Hi red and all.

A nice example of how being impatient made miss out on a nice trade.

I should have waited to see how the cluster resolved instead of guessing.

Cheers.
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Quoting kassec
GBP/AUD : may worth a short ... If it plays nice, hold it. Targets : 1.5150/1.49/1.4650.

USD/CHF : look for possible short. May want to test 0.9760 before falling. Or not ... If it breaks 0.93 to the south, the target may be around 0.9020 (to be confirmed).

GBP/USD : Below 1.5625, it's short only. H4 is showing some compression. May fall hard later this week. May test 1.5625 again before. That would then be a very nice place to short ...

AUD/USD : look for long opportunities. Either around 0.9820/0.9840, or on a breakout/pullback of 0.9888...
Quick update :
GBP/AUD : I'm short from 1.5865. Willing to hold.
USD/CHF : I missed it but you should be short from .9766 rejection. Maybe an opportunity to enter now (pullback to 0.9720). Watch PA.
GBP/USD : I've been stopped out on this one. Went to MM+2 before falling. Targets are south now : 1.55 and more.
AUD/USD : Watch PA ... I'm long only above 0.9827.
GBP/CHF : Plan is going on the right way. Watch PA to see if 1.5137 breaks to the south and hold shorts from 1.5260 for a long ride if it does.
AUD/CAD : 0.97 was a nice long opportunity. 0.9766 must hold now for longs. Above 0.9644, I'm long, but one should be very cautious and tightly following this.
Don't just be a sheep : make your own idea of it.
price approaching demand zone.

A question for you guys. Do you all consider the blue boxed area the origin of the demand? Or would you consider the area right above it as the demand zone which directly 'led' to the huge upward move in price?
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Quoting melvin87
price approaching demand zone.

A question for you guys. Do you all consider the blue boxed area the origin of the demand? Or would you consider the area right above it as the demand zone which directly 'led' to the huge upward move in price?
It depends what are you looking for. This level is a successful retest of previous resistance (look 36 hours before). It may have consumed most of the buy orders there. A bounce from this area is possible. For 2 pips ? 50 ? 100 ? I would not bet too much on it.

Now, look at D1 and H4, where do you see the source of the move ? You are looking for highly probable bounces. For me this is a possible area, but not with a high probability of success. 1.44 would be better suited. Next : open your charts at D1 and W1, what do you see ? If price begins to fall, it means it is back in the "main"/"strongest" trend. For better odds, you should not be looking to trade against the trend.

My $.02.
Don't just be a sheep : make your own idea of it.
Quoting kassec
[...]My $.02.
Sorry for the double post, I want to share more thoughts on this one because I think it is very interesting question and I've lost a lot of trade until I understood the following.

1/ Market is moved by big money players. They almost never use a chart below H4 for their analysis. What you are looking for is to see the same thing as they do. And trade the same way. This is your only chance of not being a loser. So you do the same : find your areas of trading at H4/D1 level. and enter with lower tf : M1/M15/H1. Whatever suits you. But only trade the plan you established using H4/D1.

2/ When you see a down trend as strong as the one on this pair (look at W1 : it's straight 10 500 pips down with just one retracement of only 3 000 pips), you should be very careful on choosing your conter-trend entries ...

3/ Patience. Patience. Patience. There's enough pairs to take several trades a day without willing to force the odds on a bad entry.

4/ Look at the attached chart : support at 1.4390 has not been properly retested. You see the failed re-test (1.4438) of the support ? This implies very high level of demand at the support level. You have very good chances of success trying to trade a bounce there (although it would be counter trade). I would say almost the same from 1.4855 support area. It not as strong but odds there will be some bounce there are quite good.


Now, be carefull and trade well. Following those guidelines without taking too much risk and having patience you should be near 95% of winning trades. It's not easy, I even fail to achieve that myself. But I know why : it's even a lack of patience or a too risky entry. Each time. Self control is the key. And is the hardest part of the job.


Trade well.
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Don't just be a sheep : make your own idea of it.
Quoting kassec
Sorry for the double post, I want to share more thoughts on this one because I think it is very interesting question and I've lost a lot of trade until I understood the following.

1/ Market is moved by big money players. They almost never use a chart below H4 for their analysis. What you are looking for is to see the same thing as they do. And trade the same way. This is your only chance of not being a loser. So you do the same : find your areas of trading at H4/D1 level. and enter with lower tf : M1/M15/H1. Whatever suits you. [b]But only trade...


Thanks very much for your time in putting this information together. I am sure there are a few of us who are here to learn that will benefit if we can apply this into action. The only doubt I have is that there is a level of artistary to this method that has yet to be decoded into a formal model for us to learn from. Best Regards
Quoting redsword11
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closed
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Quoting Decimal
Thanks very much for your time in putting this information together. I am sure there are a few of us who are here to learn that will benefit if we can apply this into action. The only doubt I have is that there is a level of artistary to this method that has yet to be decoded into a formal model for us to learn from. Best Regards
For sure, trading is an art, not a science. Following a few very simple rules can help :

1/ As stated above, always know what higher time frames are doing. Begin with weekly (zoom out as far as you can) to understand how the pair moves over time. When you understand where weekly will go in the next 6 months, move to daily. If you can't understand what's happening at D1/H4 level. Don't trade this pair. Your odds of success are better in a casino.

2/ Do not sell in oversold areas or buy in overbought areas. Identifying those areas in all this art is about. It's subjective. It's how you look at the chart. Others my look at this differently. Back to the original sample on GBP/CHF : I see it in overbought area. It's at 50% fib retracement of the last down wave. It's in D1 Murrey Math overbought. It's in H4 Murrey Math extremely overbought area. Putting this all together : all my triggers are strongly short. I would never enter a long now on this pair (regarding H4/H1, if you zoom to M5, you may see something different).

3/ Now that you know what you are looking for (short or long : see #1 and #2 above), you have to identify possible reversal areas. Wait for the price to get there. If you did a good job, you'll be right only 50-70% of the time. If you're right too often, it probably means you're piking risky areas and you'll get a lot of loosers.

4/ Use PA to confirm your guess and time your entry when the price reaches your area of choice. Do not enter too early. Beware of news. Etc. You already know all of that. Identifying PA moves is the hardest part. If not sure, stay out. This is also hard ! But you should not be afraid of missing a bad trade ...

All this constitues an art. I think that PA strategies (PA, MA, Fibs, MM based systems) are the only valid ones. They are quite easy to understand. But they require a lot of time to master. Anyway, your success will be in discipline, patience and humility. That's what makes trading an art. As I mentionned, I'm far from being 100% succesful myself. Overall, this is not because of my analysis. In fact, every (let's say 90% !) trade I enter proves at some point it could have been a winner. But, my lack of patience, bad timing for my entries, early or lately exists, too tight stops (maybe too large sometime) are killing my success for now. When I analyse my lost after the facts, I often find I didn't followed my plan : price was not in my initial area of choice (but I was afraid of missing my entry), I had no confirmation from PA when I jumped in, I didn't managed the trade correctly (ie when to bed with too large stops), etc. I feel I'm getting better day after day, but this requires time to learn.

I agree, it's an art
Don't just be a sheep : make your own idea of it.
Looking to short between 1.3060 and 1.3123.
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Don't just be a sheep : make your own idea of it.
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pivot and drop - prices fell due to supply/sellers


now the same area has changed to a cluster - therefore there is more a balance between sellers and buyers @ that level - let it resolve - but because prices have already fallen from that level its likely to go a little higher or MUCH higher
Quoting redsword11
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pivot and drop - prices fell due to supply/sellers


now the same area has changed to a cluster - therefore there is more a balance between sellers and buyers @ that level - let it resolve - but because prices have already fallen from that level its likely to go a little higher or MUCH higher
Now I see where I went wrong on my GU short posted this morning cheers red.
Quoting kassec
For sure, trading is an art, not a science. Following a few very simple rules can help :

1/ As stated above, always know what higher time frames are doing. Begin with weekly (zoom out as far as you can) to understand how the pair moves over time. When you understand where weekly will go in the next 6 months, move to daily. If you can't understand what's happening at D1/H4 level. Don't trade this pair. Your odds of success are better in a casino.

2/ Do not sell in oversold areas or buy in overbought areas. Identifying those areas in all this art...
Thanks kassec nice post.
Quoting reflex
Now I see where I went wrong on my GU short this morning cheers red.

been a while, nice to see you
sold the DAX
Quoting redsword11
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pivot and drop - prices fell due to supply/sellers


now the same area has changed to a cluster - therefore there is more a balance between sellers and buyers @ that level - let it resolve - but because prices have already fallen from that level its likely to go a little higher or MUCH higher
+1. As I posted I'll watch to short below 1.3123. 1.3090 is my prefered level (H1 MM +1 level, near round number). The pair moved down sharply (75 pips in one hour) after the first test today. There's something interesting here. 1.3062/1.3092/1.3123 are key levels to wath for on H1 & H4. If broken upside target is 1.3184, which is between 50 & 61.8% fib retracement. Another nice level to short.

Need to watch PA and be cautious.
Don't just be a sheep : make your own idea of it.
Quoting redsword11
sold the DAX

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PA has not confirmed short but l am in, low risk as the supply zone is tight
Quoting kassec
+1. As I posted I'll watch to short below 1.3123. 1.3090 is my prefered level (H1 MM +1 level, near round number). The pair moved down sharply (75 pips in one hour) after the first test today. There's something interesting here. 1.3062/1.3092/1.3123 are key levels to wath for on H1 & H4. If broken upside target is 1.3184, which is between 50 & 61.8% fib retracement. Another nice level to short.

Need to watch PA and be cautious.

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not taking any positions on eu - fcuking stacked levels,, traps
Quoting kassec
For sure, trading is an art, not a science. Following a few very simple rules can help :

1/ As stated above, always know what higher time frames are doing. Begin with weekly (zoom out as far as you can) to understand how the pair moves over time. When you understand where weekly will go in the next 6 months, move to daily. If you can't understand what's happening at D1/H4 level. Don't trade this pair. Your odds of success are better in a casino.

2/ Do not sell in oversold areas or buy in overbought areas. Identifying those areas in all this...
Hey Kassec,

Thanks for putting in the effort to write such a helpful post. Will definitely take note of the points in there.

I have a couple of questions which i hope Red or yourself could answer:

1) On currency pairs like the AUDUSD currently where price has hit all time highs, how do we determine whether the trend will reverse given that we usually have an objective supply level from the past to indicate the area of reversal?

2) For the AUDUSD chart posted below, am i right to say that the right shaded area is actually a pretty good demand level to look for a long (assuming the AUDUSD is still in a long-term uptrend). Although price was at that same shaded level on the left, price subsequently pierced through it (11 Jan) which represents diminished demand. And now that price has rejected off that area again, it shows 'fresh' demand in this area?
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