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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #15,101
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:49pm Jan 10, 2011 4:49pm
I take that as a yes?
" I can read the left side of the chart, the right side's a Bitch!
  • #15,102
  • Jan 10, 2011 11:39pm Jan 10, 2011 11:39pm
Quoting patrick25
First position closed, last two @ BE.
Hi patrick25,
Good trade,
I saw Jan4 BEEB on my chart but I didn't take this trade because I have weekly support at 0.8440.
  • #15,103
  • Jan 11, 2011 4:15am Jan 11, 2011 4:15am
Quoting poncho1
I take that as a yes?
Move to 50 ema a while ago
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #15,104
  • Jan 11, 2011 7:09am Jan 11, 2011 7:09am
Posted on www.stratsforextrading.com

Post subject: STRAT LIVE TRADE!
http://www.stratsforextrading.com/ph...ost_target.gifPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:53 am

Order just placed (8:48 EST) to buy USDJPY at 83.19 SL 82.87

Target is 84.43 or reverse PA
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,105
  • Jan 11, 2011 8:01am Jan 11, 2011 8:01am
Quoting strat
Posted on www.stratsforextrading.com

Post subject: STRAT LIVE TRADE!
http://www.stratsforextrading.com/ph...ost_target.gifPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:53 am

Order just placed (8:48 EST) to buy USDJPY at 83.19 SL 82.87

Target is 84.43 or reverse PA
Thank you for the live trade Strat. Oh no you have taken away nay sayers right. What are they gona say now?
  • #15,106
  • Jan 11, 2011 10:29am Jan 11, 2011 10:29am
Quoting glasso
Hi patrick25,
Good trade,
I saw Jan4 BEEB on my chart but I didn't take this trade because I have weekly support at 0.8440.
Thanks Glasso, the reasons I took the trade because the Boss retraced through 20&50 and came back right below 20&50 as resistance. Worker's 20&50 just crossed and failed to make HH after the cross. Jan 4 candle was the ticket for the ride. My aha moments came after seeing Strat's "hindsight" charts that when you open a chart and don't look at if it is month, or weekly, or daily, you will notice price actions around 20&50 are the same. Take that knowlege and apply it in these order Big Boss tells the Boss what to do, then the Boss tells Worker what to do, Worker tells us what to do with PASR. I am trailing my second position just in case.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp-01-11-11.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #15,107
  • Jan 11, 2011 10:38am Jan 11, 2011 10:38am
My second position closed at support. Last position is still at breakeven to see if it will turn to a new trend. The Boss is currently forming a M pattern so will see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcad-01-11-11.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #15,108
  • Jan 11, 2011 11:38am Jan 11, 2011 11:38am
Quoting patrick25
Thank you for the live trade Strat. Oh no you have taken away nay sayers right. What are they gona say now?
ha ha!
They are gonna say :

" This is a trick! Strat must be in cahoots with the brokers? and is trying to strip our accounts?... maybe, we better go short!!"
  • #15,109
  • Jan 11, 2011 12:47pm Jan 11, 2011 12:47pm
Quoting patrick25
Thank you for the live trade Strat. Oh no you have taken away nay sayers right. What are they gona say now?
They'll find something don't worry
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #15,110
  • Jan 11, 2011 2:09pm Jan 11, 2011 2:09pm
Quoting Spinner
Move to 50 ema a while ago
Thanks Spinner,

I read everyday but I missed that!

Poncho
" I can read the left side of the chart, the right side's a Bitch!
  • #15,111
  • Jan 11, 2011 2:34pm Jan 11, 2011 2:34pm
Quoting strat
Posted on www.stratsforextrading.com

Post subject: STRAT LIVE TRADE!
http://www.stratsforextrading.com/ph...ost_target.gifPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:53 am

Order just placed (8:48 EST) to buy USDJPY at 83.19 SL 82.87

Target is 84.43 or reverse PA

Two thumbs up for this one Strat.
It is the first time ever done here by the man himself?
<Strat's fanatics correct me if Im wrong>

OPGHM
  • #15,112
  • Jan 11, 2011 2:56pm Jan 11, 2011 2:56pm
Well, since everyone's sharing..

CADJPY long since 83.83
SL 82,86


OPGHM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: live trade CADJPY.JPG Size: 168 KB
  • #15,113
  • Edited 4:24pm Jan 11, 2011 3:34pm | Edited 4:24pm
Quoting strat
Posted on www.stratsforextrading.com

Post subject: STRAT LIVE TRADE!
http://www.stratsforextrading.com/ph...ost_target.gifPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:53 am

Order just placed (8:48 EST) to buy USDJPY at 83.19 SL 82.87

Target is 84.43 or reverse PA
Maybe we can have some analysis on this "free call"?
Serious students of this thread will all know that the "Why and How" behind this trade are far more important than receiving the free signal (If Strat gets hit by a bus tomorrow,then you are going to need to know HOW to recognise your own trades).
Maybe Strat might be kind enough to give his analysis behind the trade?

In the meantime, I will make my own attempt:

First a long term look-back shows the (current)all-time low in appril 1995 at just below 80. Every man (including the "deaf, dumb, blind one-legged man with asthma) and his dog will/have been watching the 80 level
Attached Image


On this chart I have drawn horizontal lines through the all-time low and the monthly close/open when this low occurred.
But how do these historic levels relate to our current charts? The next chart shows action on the monthly over the recent past:
Attached Image

Also on the recent monthly I have drawn what I believe was the DSR line that was valid from the start of the current down-leg starting in July 2007 through to Jan 2010. This DSR was breached by the March 2010 Bull candle but note the action around the line subsequent to 2010 (arrows).
Note also that we have a BUEB for Nov 2010 [but also note the previous monthly BUEB (green ellipses) have had little or no follow through to the upside] The November BUEB again closes above the old DSR line. December's bear bar is a retracement and fails to take out the low of the November bar.

Now let's go to the weekly chart
Attached Image

Remember that the horizontal line through approx 84.30 is Drawn off the open close way back at the historic low in 1995. Note how price interacts with this level on a recent time line (22 Nov 2009, most of Sept 2010 before breaking to downside and approaching BRN80 again and then going back up to this level late Nov and Dec). The week beginning 2Jan also gives us our BUEB.

Now moving to the daily - and remembering that our line through approx 84.30 dates all the way back to 1995 - have a look at how that line capped the high from 29 Nov through to 16 December before retracing all the way back to near the old DSR line. Pretty isn't it?
Attached Image


So why is Strat calling long now? And why is the stop around the 82.85 ?(my charts close at midnight GMT, I think his close at a different time, so expect a few pips difference)
Looking at the daily, we have seen a turn above that old DSR but 82.85 has been in play since 15 September in the daily (see the green rectangle). I beleive that his reasoning is to wait for the bull bar to break this level and then to retrace back close to it for entry, giving a reasonably tight stop and a good R:R to first target with the possibility of a trend change and potentially big pips. The daily bar that closed above 82.85 occurred on 5 Jan and retracement to 82.85 occurred on 10 jan. On 11 jan the daily broke through the high of the 10 jan bar (83.26 on my charts) and the long trade was initiated.
Yes, I took Strat's call (thanks Strat) but admit to already being long from 3 Jan and the re-test of the old DSR.

Just one word of caution: I would again remind everyone that every trader on the planet is watching 80 - AND THE BIG BOYS KNOW WE ARE!!. I would like to know how many bets are already on for this (BRN80) being the bottom - Will it really hold?
  • #15,114
  • Jan 11, 2011 4:24pm Jan 11, 2011 4:24pm
Quoting trogger
Maybe we can have some analysis on this "free call"?
Serious students of this thread will all know that the "Why and How" behind this trade are far more important than receiving the free signal (If Strat gets hit by a bus tomorrow,then you are going to need to know HOW to recognise your own trades).
Maybe Strat might be kind enough to give his analysis behind the trade?

In the meantime, I will make my own attempt:

First a long term look-back shows the (current)all-time low in appril 1995 at just below 80. Every man (including the "deaf,...
Trogger, you are good, very good - I'm impressed!

Sorry I can't divulge on here the reasoning behind the trade which is fully explained on www.startsforextrading.com as that would do injustice to those subscribers.

This is my 3rd add on to my initial trade also on Jan 3rd, 2011.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,115
  • Jan 11, 2011 4:42pm Jan 11, 2011 4:42pm
Quoting trogger
Maybe we can have some analysis on this "free call"?
Serious students of this thread will all know that the "Why and How" behind this trade are far more important than receiving the free signal (If Strat gets hit by a bus tomorrow,then you are going to need to know HOW to recognise your own trades).
Maybe Strat might be kind enough to give his analysis behind the trade?

In the meantime, I will make my own attempt:

First a long term look-back shows the (current)all-time low in appril 1995 at just below 80. Every man (including the "deaf,...
Thanks for the detail analysis. Simply put, Strat is positioning himself for early entry for turnaround. Take a look at the Boss, she is making HL with 20 flat. On Worker price bounced off Strat shadow.
  • #15,116
  • Jan 11, 2011 4:46pm Jan 11, 2011 4:46pm
Quoting patrick25
Thanks for the detail analysis. Simply put, Strat is positioning himself for early entry for turnaround. Take a look at the Boss, she is making HL with 20 flat. On Worker price bounced off Strat shadow.
Simply put, Strat is positioning himself for early entry for turnaround.

Are you spying on me, young Mr. Patrick?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,117
  • Jan 11, 2011 5:00pm Jan 11, 2011 5:00pm
Quoting strat
Simply put, Strat is positioning himself for early entry for turnaround.

Are you spying on me, young Mr. Patrick?
You have left too many clues behind that all.
  • #15,118
  • Edited 6:14pm Jan 11, 2011 5:52pm | Edited 6:14pm
Quoting trogger
ha ha!
They are gonna say :

" This is a trick! Strat must be in cahoots with the brokers? and is trying to strip our accounts?... maybe, we better go short!!"
Thanks STRAT for the tip, and TROGGER for the detailed analysis. However I’ll watch UJ from the ringside for now, seeing how I was fooled into taking long positions by a similar setup in Apr/May 2010, with strong break of down-trendline [A] and subsequent re-test/held of the trendline and the Strat shadow as support. It was a false break of the long trendline then....the BEEB on May-5 2010, and the free-fall the next day wiped out all the longs. This week a similar price action appears to be playing out with the shorter down-trendline [b], so I’ll pass.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc USDJPY DAILY JAN12.doc   191 KB | 270 downloads

Here's the weekly chart - strong USDJPY downtrend intact.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc USDJPY WEEK2 JAN.doc   194 KB | 283 downloads
.
  • #15,119
  • Jan 11, 2011 6:58pm Jan 11, 2011 6:58pm
Quoting jegwele
[size=3][font=Calibri]Thanks STRAT for the tip, and TROGGER for the detailed analysis. However I’ll watch UJ from the ringside for now, seeing how I was fooled into taking long positions by a similar setup in Apr/May 2010, with strong break of down-trendline [A] and subsequent re-test/held of the trendline and the Strat shadow as support. It was a false break of the long trendline then....the BEEB on May-5 2010, and the free-fall the next day wiped out all the longs. This week a similar price action appears to be playing out with the shorter...
Yes Jegwele, I can appreciate your concerns. And you are right to be concerned - after all, Rule no 1 rule is .....?? I too was bitten on that one back in May! But stops are there to limit losses. You WILL have losses - the cost of doing business!


Now, for Strat (and myself) this is an add-on to trades initiated on 3 jan, so assuming the stop for all positions is around/just beneath the 82.85 area (that Strat posted with his FF thread call) for all of the entries taken - ie profit locked in on the first position(s)) then he (Strat) won't be losing any capital if this does go against the call. (he has two positions already in profit.

I am not advocationg anyone initiating now, I was merely posting my thoughts on why Strat may have been posting his call.
For anyone initiating a first position now, clearly position size must be addressed to keep any (potential)losses within one's rules.

I did point out that 3 previous BUEBs on the monthly had all had little or no follow through to the upside and that every player and his dog out there will be watching for a major bottom - meaning will the Big Boys run it down first?

Has anyone studied the COT reports?
  • #15,120
  • Jan 11, 2011 7:19pm Jan 11, 2011 7:19pm
Quoting jegwele
[size=3][font=Calibri]Thanks STRAT for the tip, and TROGGER for the detailed analysis. However I’ll watch UJ from the ringside for now, seeing how I was fooled into taking long positions by a similar setup in Apr/May 2010, with strong break of down-trendline [A] and subsequent re-test/held of the trendline and the Strat shadow as support. It was a false break of the long trendline then....the BEEB on May-5 2010, and the free-fall the next day wiped out all the longs. This week a similar price action appears to be playing out with the shorter down-trendline...
You are a FOOl if you think every PASR trade is a winner! There is NO method, NO system, NO black box, NO robot that produces 100% winners - the ONLY 100% winner is PRICE and the Market.

Losses are just OUR cost of doing business in OUR $multi million trading company.

Manage your losses and the wins will take care of themselves
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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