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Long Term Pips

  • #61
  • Jan 10, 2011 3:47pm Jan 10, 2011 3:47pm
this looks nice to me

entry seems to fall on Dec 22, and taken at 5ema = short ~110.00
price has gone only as high as 110.23 since then
and now sits at 107.00

back-testing i know.............but got to start at the beginning
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  • #62
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:20pm Jan 10, 2011 4:20pm
Quoting brenzaj42
I will be posting trades as I take them. Hopefully nobody follows me blindly but rather learns how I do it. I use 2 ema's, 5 and 12 for direction and that is it. I try to keep it as simple as possible. . Also, I will use parallel and inverse analysis to confirm long term direction. I realize this sounds incredibly boring as some other people have all these rules and indicators but I like it plain. It works for me.
Boring = Low blood pressure, calm,confident & Profitable!!!
  • #63
  • Jan 10, 2011 5:27pm Jan 10, 2011 5:27pm
this is how i view the market tonight-

Still not a whole lot, there are only two pairs that have new fresh crosses with room to move, EUR/USD and EUR/GBP. I am not real confident in them after conducting parallel and inverse analysis. I know that EUR is weak across the board and that alone is enough to maybe take them down to the nearest resistance point but the dollar to me looks like it is weakening which will cause consolidation on the pair unless it can get there in the next day or so. Same thing for the GBP. It has been going up recently, refer to GBP/AUD, GBP/CHF, and GBP/JPY but they are all in long term downtrends so they will eventually stall and come back down which will cause EUR/GBP to consolidate so this pair has a day or two to hit resistance as well.

So to recap, I have only two trades planned for the main session tomorrow EUR/USD and EUR/GBP but I will really need to see them move because I think both might start to consolidate soon.

Hope that makes sense.
  • #64
  • Jan 10, 2011 5:29pm Jan 10, 2011 5:29pm
I trade any pair that is trending




Quoting REDgab
How do you pick the pairs you trade? do you go by spread? which trading broker or brokers do you use, and why? just curious, just a few more clues to the puzzle you are making!
  • #65
  • Jan 10, 2011 5:30pm Jan 10, 2011 5:30pm
I compare as many pairs as I can for both sides of the currency pair. The more the better.



Quoting paulwales
Hi Brenzaj42

Great thread, thanks for sharing your knowledge. I look forward to posting what I see develop and hearing your thoughts.

When you are studying parallel and inverse analysis. How many pairs do you look at for these signs. For example if the GBP is trending upwards, would you just look at the "Major Pairs" of GBP to analyse. ie you are looking for a long on GBP/USD so you look for correlation in GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF to be trending up and USD/JPY and USD/CHF to be trending down?

Sorry if this seems obvious but I am a relative...
  • #66
  • Jan 10, 2011 5:32pm Jan 10, 2011 5:32pm
Yes, I am hawking this pair to get back in myself




Quoting paulwales
This pair could be worth watching. Both weekly and daily trends are up. (Green T/L Weekly, Orange T/L Daily) Price is hovering around the daily blue S&R line and has had a look at 50% fib. In a few days time the MAs could cross upwards around the orange T/L.

Worth watching? What do you think Brenzaj42??


Regards
Paul
  • #67
  • Jan 10, 2011 5:33pm Jan 10, 2011 5:33pm
At the time, it was too close to resistance.




Quoting trzcinek
Hi Paul,

I'm already in since the 5th of January, but as far as I understood Brenzaj decided not to take this one.

I used retrace to S&R level of 1.31800 for entry.

Around 200 pips so far ... I hope the 1.30000 level will hold ;-)

Trzcinek

PS the red line on the last chart show the currency strength at the moment of the entry. Both EUR and USD was trending in the opposite way.

Brenzaj : Pls give us your comments :-) Was there a special reason you decided not to take this trade ?
  • #68
  • Jan 10, 2011 5:35pm Jan 10, 2011 5:35pm
Thanks for the help, you hit the nail on the head



Quoting Analda3
Please understand I am not trying to answer questions for Brenzaj, but as a person who wants to understand his method, I am paying a lot of attention to all posts in this thread. I think when students share ideas we can learn together faster.
When he said he didn't take that trade was on the fresh cross of last Thursday 1/6/2010. If you look at the bar on that day it very much closed at a previous support of 2 days (11/29 & 12/01). He says in his post # 21 (2nd page) "I require there to be at least 100 pips of room to move until the next resistance...
  • #69
  • Jan 10, 2011 5:39pm Jan 10, 2011 5:39pm
Nice, I am in this trade, its a beautiful things isn't it, low maintenance as well.




Quoting Jungles
this looks nice to me

entry seems to fall on Dec 22, and taken at 5ema = short ~110.00
price has gone only as high as 110.23 since then
and now sits at 107.00

back-testing i know.............but got to start at the beginning
  • #70
  • Jan 10, 2011 5:42pm Jan 10, 2011 5:42pm
Hope this helps, i am off to watch NCAA championship, I might check in before bed but I will definately be back in the main session to check on trades.
  • #71
  • Jan 10, 2011 5:46pm Jan 10, 2011 5:46pm
very simple and interesting
  • #72
  • Jan 10, 2011 9:58pm Jan 10, 2011 9:58pm
I created the attached excel file which helps me see easily if a currency is strong or weak. It is based on all the pairs i can trade at my broker. It is based on the weekly charts and it would be very easy to maintain because the weekly trends don't change that often. By looking at columns E or F, I can easily see if the currencies of a pair are strong, weak or mixed across the board.
Brenzaj42: Please tell me if you think this might have some value to help those of us not experienced with your method to make the process simpler.
What I am planning to do is to check the weekly charts every night first to confirm that the information i have in the excel file is still valid; if not I would make the required changes. Then I will follow the nightly list of tasks as described by brenzaj42.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls TrendTradingMethod.xls   14 KB | 401 downloads
  • #73
  • Jan 11, 2011 3:42am Jan 11, 2011 3:42am
Hello

Brenzaj, why do you not trail your stops? to trail the SL as you know, is the popular view

if you begin with a SL of 100, and you are up say +150, why not reduce it, ie., hide it behind a pivot?

i have been considering leaving my stops alone,
i have lost count the number of times i move them in,
only to see them get hit, then price turn in my favour
  • #74
  • Jan 11, 2011 4:01am Jan 11, 2011 4:01am
this isnt technically a cross, more of a scrape, not sure if that matters!?

and GBPCAD, USDCAD heading down

any thoughts?
Attached Images
  • #75
  • Jan 11, 2011 4:01am Jan 11, 2011 4:01am
Well, I think you said it best, your stops will get hit and then run in your favor. I want to give it room to breathe. A lot of the way I trade is being comfortable with being in trades for a long period of time. I just exit when the method tells me.



Quoting Jungles
Hello

Brenzaj, why do you not trail your stops? to trail the SL as you know, is the popular view

if you begin with a SL of 100, and you are up say +150, why not reduce it, ie., hide it behind a pivot?

i have been considering leaving my stops alone,
i have lost count the number of times i move them in,
only to see them get hit, then price turn in my favour
  • #76
  • Jan 11, 2011 5:04am Jan 11, 2011 5:04am
Brenzaj.

Thanks for your market views. Very interesting.

One to watch is the GBP/CHF. Weekly and Daily downtrend as shown by the green (weekly) and Orange (Daily) trendlines.

If price retraces back to 50% fib and daily resistance at around 1.5200, should we look for a MA cross down to enter?

Regards
Paul
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  • #77
  • Jan 11, 2011 5:23am Jan 11, 2011 5:23am
I am looking for all the gbp pairs to come back down but I don't use fib's. In my opinion, they are too subjective.



Quoting paulwales
Brenzaj.

Thanks for your market views. Very interesting.

One to watch is the GBP/CHF. Weekly and Daily downtrend as shown by the green (weekly) and Orange (Daily) trendlines.

If price retraces back to 50% fib and daily resistance at around 1.5200, should we look for a MA cross down to enter?

Regards
Paul
  • #78
  • Jan 11, 2011 5:24am Jan 11, 2011 5:24am
I am already in this trade but you could look to enter if it moves in the main session.



Quoting Jungles
this isnt technically a cross, more of a scrape, not sure if that matters!?

and GBPCAD, USDCAD heading down

any thoughts?
  • #79
  • Jan 11, 2011 5:39am Jan 11, 2011 5:39am
Quoting brenzaj42
I am looking for all the gbp pairs to come back down but I don't use fib's. In my opinion, they are too subjective.
Yes, sorry Brenzaj.I shouldn't be using Fibs either as it's your thread and we should stick to your original method.
Old habits I'm afraid.

Regards
Paul.
  • #80
  • Jan 11, 2011 5:55am Jan 11, 2011 5:55am
You can use whatever you like, I just don't use them. For me, I have all the tools I need. To me, its addition by subtraction.




Quoting paulwales
Yes, sorry Brenzaj.I shouldn't be using Fibs either as it's your thread and we should stick to your original method.
Old habits I'm afraid.

Regards
Paul.
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