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Long Term Pips

  • #41
  • Jan 10, 2011 9:36am Jan 10, 2011 9:36am
Great to see this thread developing so fast ! I would have a few questions regarding some details of your method :

1.I understand that you don’t really enter on the fresh cross of the EMAs but rather wait for the retracement to the faster of two EMAs and then wait for the market to go the way you want in the main session (move confirmed by the P&I analysis). Is this correct ?

2.Most of the pairs are behaving its own way. Some are trending very often some are mostly ranging (a killer for every MA based method). Do you have some pairs selected for trading or you trade all of them? Are there any pairs you wouldn’t trade at all?

3.Are you babysitting your open trades or is it rather shot & forget method, where the next step after your entry is watching for re-crossing of EMAs in the opposite way to exit the trade ?

I hope the questions are clear. Thanks in advance for all answers !

Good luck, Trzcinek
"A goal without a plan is just a wish" - Antoine de Saint-Exupery
  • #42
  • Jan 10, 2011 9:54am Jan 10, 2011 9:54am
Everything you said is spot on, and I have been trading this all the way down since March 09. My thought is -I will ride her till she bucks me. Eventually, perhaps it will turn against me. I don't care when it does, until then I will collect the pips. I don't pretend to know where the market will go but I will keep taking my trades because for all I know, this could keep dropping for another year. Right now, I am up pretty big on that pair. When you consider a 100 pip stop VS the potential of each trade, I really do not worry about it being overextended, there is no need in my mind.



Quoting Analda3
Brenzaj42: Accordingly to your method you probably entered (or better yet re-entered) a short trade on the EURAUD somewhere close to 1.39 around 11/05/2010 or so (pips more pips less and/or a few days after or before). If that is so, would you have any considerations whatsoever to the fact that the trend started somewhere in March 2009 and at around 1.91 and therefore its a very old and overextended trend and it could be time for a pull back???
  • #43
  • Jan 10, 2011 10:01am Jan 10, 2011 10:01am
1.Well, the cross on the daily is the retracement on the weekly so that is my pullback then I wait to enter in main session.

2.Pairs range all the time that is why I continue to say parallel and inverse analysis is the foundation for confirming my trend. If done correctly, a person should be able to extract what both currencies are doing on the sides of the pair. Obviously a trending pair in the forex market can be described as weak VS strong or other way around. If both are weak or strong, it will go sideways. So that is what I am looking for when conducting P and I.

3. After I enter, I am done for the day, I will come back later at 6pm and check to see where things are at repeat my steps.

Hope that helps




Quoting trzcinek
Great to see this thread developing so fast ! I would have a few questions regarding some details of your method :

1.I understand that you don’t really enter on the fresh cross of the EMAs but rather wait for the retracement to the faster of two EMAs and then wait for the market to go the way you want in the main session (move confirmed by the P&I analysis). Is this correct ?

2.Most of the pairs are behaving its own way. Some are trending very often some are mostly ranging (a killer for every MA based method). Do you have some pairs selected...
  • #44
  • Jan 10, 2011 10:13am Jan 10, 2011 10:13am
Quoting brenzaj42
Everything you said is spot on, and I have been trading this all the way down since March 09. My thought is -I will ride her till she bucks me. Eventually, perhaps it will turn against me. I don't care when it does, until then I will collect the pips. I don't pretend to know where the market will go but I will keep taking my trades because for all I know, this could keep dropping for another year. Right now, I am up pretty big on that pair. When you consider a 100 pip stop VS the potential of each trade, I really do not worry about it being overextended,...
brenzaj42: Thanks for your prompt response. I can see how this makes a lot of sense and works like a champ in a trendy market. Now, when the market is choppy or ranging in a more narrow area (say 400 - 500 pips range), do you ever go down in the time frames looking for opportunities or just don't trade at all??? My questions goes to say that even though you are looking at all available pairs, there might be times when you don't trade at all because there is no clear and defined trends in the longer time frames??
  • #45
  • Jan 10, 2011 10:18am Jan 10, 2011 10:18am
You can go down to smaller time frames to pickup oscillations and I do that on occasion but I normally just stick to my method. I trade 28 pairs and at least so far in my career, there are always a couple pairs that are trending. That is why I scan so many pairs every night. I think the fewest I have ever been in is 2 and at times I have been in over 20 trades. Hope that helps, I am off to the dog park, Ill be back in a couple hours.



Quoting Analda3
brenzaj42: Thanks for your prompt response. I can see how this makes a lot of sense and works like a champ in a trendy market. Now, when the market is choppy or ranging in a more narrow area (say 400 - 500 pips range), do you ever go down in the time frames looking for opportunities or just don't trade at all??? My questions goes to say that even though you are looking at all available pairs, there might be times when you don't trade at all because there is no clear and defined trends in the longer time frames??
  • #46
  • Jan 10, 2011 10:28am Jan 10, 2011 10:28am
Quoting brenzaj42
You can go down to smaller time frames to pickup oscillations and I do that on occasion but I normally just stick to my method. I trade 28 pairs and at least so far in my career, there are always a couple pairs that are trending. That is why I scan so many pairs every night. I think the fewest I have ever been in is 2 and at times I have been in over 20 trades. Hope that helps, I am off to the dog park, Ill be back in a couple hours.
Thanks again.

One of the things i like about your method is that you make it sound very simple, and i see how it can be really that simple. I think i have it in mind that it has to be much more complicated and look for stupid reasons why taking or not taking a trade. And almost always end up making mistakes due to a lack of set rules like the ones you present in your method.

Looking forward to follow your great thread.

THANKS
  • #47
  • Jan 10, 2011 10:30am Jan 10, 2011 10:30am
How do you pick the pairs you trade? do you go by spread? which trading broker or brokers do you use, and why? just curious, just a few more clues to the puzzle you are making!
  • #48
  • Jan 10, 2011 11:11am Jan 10, 2011 11:11am
Hi Brenzaj42

Great thread, thanks for sharing your knowledge. I look forward to posting what I see develop and hearing your thoughts.

When you are studying parallel and inverse analysis. How many pairs do you look at for these signs. For example if the GBP is trending upwards, would you just look at the "Major Pairs" of GBP to analyse. ie you are looking for a long on GBP/USD so you look for correlation in GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF to be trending up and USD/JPY and USD/CHF to be trending down?

Sorry if this seems obvious but I am a relative newbie and firmly believe longer TF trading is the way to go.

Kind regards
Paul
  • #49
  • Jan 10, 2011 12:04pm Jan 10, 2011 12:04pm
Looking at this pair. The weekly and daily trends are down (Green T/L Weekly, Orange T/L Daily) There was a fresh cross down the middle of last week. Price has broken through a daily Support over the last two days and the MAs are angled down and apart.

Should we be waiting to enter or am I missing something?

Your thoughts are very much appreciated.

Kind regards
Paul
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Daily.png Size: 39 KB
  • #50
  • Jan 10, 2011 12:24pm Jan 10, 2011 12:24pm
This pair could be worth watching. Both weekly and daily trends are up. (Green T/L Weekly, Orange T/L Daily) Price is hovering around the daily blue S&R line and has had a look at 50% fib. In a few days time the MAs could cross upwards around the orange T/L.

Worth watching? What do you think Brenzaj42??


Regards
Paul
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Daily.png Size: 36 KB
  • #51
  • Jan 10, 2011 12:31pm Jan 10, 2011 12:31pm
Hi Paul,

I'm already in since the 5th of January, but as far as I understood Brenzaj decided not to take this one.

I used retrace to S&R level of 1.31800 for entry.

Around 200 pips so far ... I hope the 1.30000 level will hold ;-)

Trzcinek

PS the red line on the last chart show the currency strength at the moment of the entry. Both EUR and USD was trending in the opposite way.

Brenzaj : Pls give us your comments :-) Was there a special reason you decided not to take this trade ?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 05jan2011 eurusd.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 05jan2011 eurusd - weekly.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur vs usd strength.gif Size: 16 KB
"A goal without a plan is just a wish" - Antoine de Saint-Exupery
  • #52
  • Jan 10, 2011 12:51pm Jan 10, 2011 12:51pm
Quoting trzcinek
Hi Paul,

I'm already in since the 5th of January, but as far as I understood Brenzaj decided not to take this one.

I used retrace to S&R level of 1.31800 for entry.

Around 200 pips so far ... I hope the 1.30000 level will hold ;-)

Trzcinek

PS the red line on the last chart show the currency strength at the moment of the entry. Both EUR and USD was trending in the opposite way.

Brenzaj : Pls give us your comments :-) Was there a special reason you decided not to take this trade ?
Hi Trzcinek.

Nice trade, I wish you well with the 1.30000 holding for further downtrend and more pips.
Could you tell me why you chose to enter at the cross instead of waiting for the MAs to seperate and strengthen the trend, or was it just a gut instinct?
If I entered now (once 1.30000 has held) I would have missed lots of pips, but saying that, there could still be plenty (maybe 300/400) to gain.

Your comments would be very welcome

Regards
Paul.
  • #53
  • Jan 10, 2011 1:18pm Jan 10, 2011 1:18pm
Thanks! My entry was based on the 1.31800 S&R, which I considered strong enough to hold. I'm using a lot of PA and S&R in my trading which certainly influenced my entry here.

But I don't think this is the way Brenzaj is entering his trades, so I'm really interested in his opinion on this.

If 1.30000 holds there will certainly be some more pips to be taken ;-)

Take care, Trzcinek


Quoting paulwales
Hi Trzcinek.

Nice trade, I wish you well with the 1.30000 holding for further downtrend and more pips.
Could you tell me why you chose to enter at the cross instead of waiting for the MAs to seperate and strengthen the trend, or was it just a gut instinct?
If I entered now (once 1.30000 has held) I would have missed lots of pips, but saying that, there could still be plenty (maybe 300/400) to gain.

Your comments would be very welcome

Regards
Paul.
"A goal without a plan is just a wish" - Antoine de Saint-Exupery
  • #54
  • Jan 10, 2011 1:35pm Jan 10, 2011 1:35pm
And what about this one ? EMAs crossed... WE trend down... Nice separation... Nice S&R level at 0.83400, which seems to be holding... GBP is getting stronger when EUR weakens ...

What do you think ? Not to late to enter ?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10jan2011 eurgbp.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur vs gbp strength.gif Size: 10 KB
"A goal without a plan is just a wish" - Antoine de Saint-Exupery
  • #55
  • Jan 10, 2011 1:47pm Jan 10, 2011 1:47pm
Hi Brenzaj

is my analysis correct?
plus we have Es trending down (EG, EN, EC etc) = parallel anlysis

if so, where to enter?

thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-01-11_0543.png Size: 27 KB
Attached Images
  • #56
  • Jan 10, 2011 2:03pm Jan 10, 2011 2:03pm
same sort of thing on EURGBP
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-01-11_0600.png Size: 17 KB
Attached Images
  • #57
  • Jan 10, 2011 2:12pm Jan 10, 2011 2:12pm
Quoting Jungles
Hi Brenzaj

is my analysis correct?
plus we have Es trending down (EG, EN, EC etc) = parallel anlysis

if so, where to enter?

thanks
Hi Jungles.


That's my dilema too, where to enter. Looks a perfect setup but as Trzcinek mentioned, Brenzaj chose not to enter so it will be interesting to see what he says.

Regards
Paul
  • #58
  • Jan 10, 2011 2:56pm Jan 10, 2011 2:56pm
I had no idea all of this was going on, I just got back to my computer. I don't have time to answer questions now however I will be back at 6pm est, about 2 hours to analyse the market. i will try to answer all the questions then but I will explain my analysis every night which should help as well.
  • #59
  • Jan 10, 2011 2:57pm Jan 10, 2011 2:57pm
Quoting paulwales
Hi Jungles.


That's my dilema too, where to enter. Looks a perfect setup but as Trzcinek mentioned, Brenzaj chose not to enter so it will be interesting to see what he says.

Regards
Paul
Please understand I am not trying to answer questions for Brenzaj, but as a person who wants to understand his method, I am paying a lot of attention to all posts in this thread. I think when students share ideas we can learn together faster.
When he said he didn't take that trade was on the fresh cross of last Thursday 1/6/2010. If you look at the bar on that day it very much closed at a previous support of 2 days (11/29 & 12/01). He says in his post # 21 (2nd page) "I require there to be at least 100 pips of room to move until the next resistance point", well there was only a few pips to the previous support level (which i described before). My wild guess is that at this point he might considering entering this trade because it already broke that previous support and the next support level is around 1.2640 which is about 300 pips away from the current level. As far as parallel and Inverse analysis goes, the EUR is on a strong downtrend all across the board and the USD is showing some strength in most pairs in the last few days but there are a couple of pairs in which it is still showing a weakness (USDCAD,GBPUSD). I am also very curious as to see what his take is on this one.
Regards
JLC
  • #60
  • Jan 10, 2011 2:57pm Jan 10, 2011 2:57pm
the 5ema might be as good an entry as any!?

Quoting paulwales
Hi Jungles.
That's my dilema too, where to enter.
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