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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #23,821
  • Jan 10, 2011 11:31am Jan 10, 2011 11:31am
Maybe a possible long towards the 365 on GBP...
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  • #23,822
  • Jan 10, 2011 11:48am Jan 10, 2011 11:48am
Quoting Borism
Maybe a possible long towards the 365 on GBP...
Hmmm....not so good...
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  • #23,823
  • Jan 10, 2011 12:02pm Jan 10, 2011 12:02pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
Hmmm....not so good...

Yes, you were right. It is funny, how signals from candles can be misleading before they close.
  • #23,824
  • Edited 8:04pm Jan 10, 2011 7:35pm | Edited 8:04pm
Quoting Borism
I agree with orangeRANGE, i think that the market is very unpredictable now. At the moment I am watching on AUDUSD, waiting for a divergence and a possible entry long towards 21... will see....
For those trading the AU, there are trade balance, employment and home loans releases out this week which will affect volatility.

There are BOE and ECB rate decisions on Thursday.
  • #23,825
  • Jan 10, 2011 9:10pm Jan 10, 2011 9:10pm
I am still watching this 2 pairs closely atm. Their monthly charts showing macd divergence (bias to the upside move) against PA.

Should be a very good move if I can enter a long term trade in the early wave. It is only a matter of time when I should make the entry @ H4.
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  • #23,826
  • Jan 11, 2011 3:57am Jan 11, 2011 3:57am
Quoting orangeRANGE
I am still watching this 2 pairs closely atm. .
Orange,
What is atm as in your post above?
Thank you.
  • #23,827
  • Jan 11, 2011 5:57am Jan 11, 2011 5:57am
ATM......at the moment.

orange thanks for the charts and the heads up.......i tend to concentrate on the 4hr chart and often miss whats happening on the others....thanks
  • #23,828
  • Jan 11, 2011 6:11am Jan 11, 2011 6:11am
Quoting kraven
ATM......at the moment.

orange thanks for the charts and the heads up.......i tend to concentrate on the 4hr chart and often miss whats happening on the others....thanks
Yeah...atm = at the moment...

Well...different traders trade using different TF. That's why sometime you need to watch over the weekly & monthly. I think these TFs are belong to BIG BOYS. Just guessing...
  • #23,829
  • Jan 11, 2011 6:27am Jan 11, 2011 6:27am
For those who are watching this pair...please take note that there is some change in momentum atm. Just look at the MACD against PA per H4.

Daily candles in the last few days also "running out of steam". Could be a retracement move.
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  • #23,830
  • Jan 11, 2011 6:39am Jan 11, 2011 6:39am
Their channel this way? We'll find out by this week...
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  • #23,831
  • Jan 11, 2011 7:56am Jan 11, 2011 7:56am
I didn't trade this one, glad I didn't.
although interpreted as bounce off 21/8ema zone, rsi showed bounce, macd had turned red ....
but my feeling was against this entry so I kept out.
has anyone a technical explanation for my feeling?
thanks
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  • #23,832
  • Jan 11, 2011 9:05am Jan 11, 2011 9:05am
Quoting ashes
I didn't trade this one, glad I didn't.
although interpreted as bounce off 21/8ema zone, rsi showed bounce, macd had turned red ....
but my feeling was against this entry so I kept out.
has anyone a technical explanation for my feeling?
thanks
I think you are using too much indi. Although rsi is as popular as macd, you should stick to the main method (which is 4hour rhythm & rules, PA & macd as confirmation) taught by Phillip.

Right...previously price has been away too much from 21ema & it tends to pullback towards this MA before TC. If it fail to make a LL (supported @ the last low or even worse making a HL), chances of trend reversal or consolidation period is quite high.

That's why Phillip don't like to trade off the 8ema. He want us to manage our trade with r:r=1. Also, do not over analysis. Stick with your original plan & execute if it is in your favour or if it is not, stay away from the market / look for other major pairs.

Hope this helps.
  • #23,833
  • Jan 11, 2011 11:09am Jan 11, 2011 11:09am
Entry @ 83.39 with 50p SL/TP. Let's see what will happened later on.
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  • #23,834
  • Jan 11, 2011 11:38am Jan 11, 2011 11:38am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Entry @ 83.39 with 50p SL/TP. Let's see what will happened later on.
Hi, can you explain, why do you think that the price won't fall through 200 like before...
  • #23,835
  • Jan 11, 2011 6:36pm Jan 11, 2011 6:36pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
...previously price has been away too much from 21ema & it tends to pullback towards this MA before TC....
thank you
  • #23,836
  • Jan 11, 2011 10:55pm Jan 11, 2011 10:55pm
Thinking of going short with nzdusd. reasons:
1. All MA averages are very close together
2. The last 2 candles closed belove 89
3. On 1h chart price went below 0 on macd
4. SL 25 pips, TP: 40 pips(200 ema) risk =OK

Any comments?
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  • #23,837
  • Jan 11, 2011 11:49pm Jan 11, 2011 11:49pm
Quoting Borism
Thinking of going short with nzdusd. reasons:
1. All MA averages are very close together
2. The last 2 candles closed belove 89
3. On 1h chart price went below 0 on macd
4. SL 25 pips, TP: 40 pips(200 ema) risk =OK

Any comments?
Can you share and explain your strategy ..?
  • #23,838
  • Jan 12, 2011 1:38am Jan 12, 2011 1:38am
Quoting karan
Can you share and explain your strategy ..?
I see now it was wise that I stayed out of the trade. Minutes after posting, the price reversed. If the candle closed under previous low, it would be a clear TC signal. Now we will have to wait and see how it develops...
  • #23,839
  • Jan 12, 2011 4:23am Jan 12, 2011 4:23am
Quoting Borism
Hi, can you explain, why do you think that the price won't fall through 200 like before...
TBH with you, no one knows whether the price will get support/resistance @ a certain level. That's for sure. This kind of emotion occurs to all of us, most of the time.

But, technically I see the previous candles (a few) of H4 resisted @ 200sma. Once it break above it yesterday, 200sma become the new support for it. That's the only reason for me to take the trade. If my SL hit, then I will look for another set up or revise my trading plan.

I have increase my SL/TP to 60pips as thing doesn't look so good atm & this is my limit for this trade.

Hope this helps.
  • #23,840
  • Jan 12, 2011 5:58am Jan 12, 2011 5:58am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Entry @ 83.39 with 50p SL/TP. Let's see what will happened later on.
Re-enter another lot @ 83.27 with 65 SL/TP. Adjusting my first entry's SL/TP according to this 2nd entry.

Reason is simple. PA is in H&S formation (see triangle). I hope this trade doing well now.
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