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Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

  • #3,661
  • Jan 7, 2011 4:46pm Jan 7, 2011 4:46pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Thanks. Well you've got the vouch now. Congrats!

FX4

P.S. Would be nice to be next .
The vouching system here is completely meaningless. There's folks here with enough vouches to fill a page that can't trade their way out of a paper sack, and there's some really good traders I know here with hardly any vouches let alone barely a post.

You know a trader by the content of their postings.
  • #3,662
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:02pm Jan 7, 2011 5:02pm
Quoting GreatYves
Thank you Auxesis!
Your welcome!
  • #3,663
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:21pm Jan 7, 2011 5:21pm
it would be great to see the vouch system based solely upon trade history

i dont know how it could work, but it would more closely represent skill compared to the present system, which is accessible, regardless of trading skill, if you are prepared to network and self-promote

it is my ambition to be one of the best traders at FF with no vouches
.........so far so good, on the vouches that is

Quoting auxesis
The vouching system here is completely meaningless. There's folks here with enough vouches to fill a page that can't trade their way out of a paper sack, and there's some really good traders I know here with hardly any vouches let alone barely a post.

You know a trader by the content of their postings.
  • #3,664
  • Edited 6:04pm Jan 7, 2011 5:41pm | Edited 6:04pm
Quoting auxesis
The vouching system here is completely meaningless. There's folks here with enough vouches to fill a page that can't trade their way out of a paper sack, and there's some really good traders I know here with hardly any vouches let alone barely a post.

You know a trader by the content of their postings.
You're probably right. Though the vouch may be meaningless in terms of establishing the credibility of a trader, it does afford some privileges. Also, for new traders who don't know... it should be a guidepost to help them as they try to sift through the posts etc. Hopefully they are able to make their way to the good traders you spoke of...and many of them post here on a regular basis (IMHO).

Have a good weekend,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #3,665
  • Jan 7, 2011 6:07pm Jan 7, 2011 6:07pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Thanks. Well you've got the vouch now. Congrats!

FX4

P.S. Would be nice to be next .
Didn't expect to be next, but I am very grateful for it. Thanks Auxesis. Sent you a Thank You PM as well. I guess now my New Year in trading can begin .

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #3,666
  • Jan 7, 2011 6:29pm Jan 7, 2011 6:29pm
Quoting PeterE
it would be great to see the vouch system based solely upon trade history

i dont know how it could work, but it would more closely represent skill compared to the present system, which is accessible, regardless of trading skill, if you are prepared to network and self-promote

it is my ambition to be one of the best traders at FF with no vouches
.........so far so good, on the vouches that is
Trouble being, while there are some notable names that peruse these forums, most don't spend a lot of time here, as it's not meaningful to their bottom line. Unless your trying to gain the attention of some head hunters by showing your stuff on a public forum, or sad to say some here with dubious intentions, most would be better off by concentrating on their screens with earnest study, rather than hitting the refresh every few seconds reading the next post.

Tis boring and lonely trading from the Casa, the forums are a place for entertainment and sharing ideas.

Time for some football, great weekend everyone

regards,
  • #3,667
  • Jan 7, 2011 7:41pm Jan 7, 2011 7:41pm
Quoting Wave Trader
TAQ

I should have been more clear. I did not have a position - I liked your count and S-R work.

I should have included my 20 minute chart along with the 240.

My 240 - shows end of wave 5 - possibly

My M20 - shows resistance at LML and a bounce for a retest.

I am looking for a new high above 1.5665 - Unless something dramatically
changes.

I went long after the news and after the retest held and exited at the
SR line and the Black Line which is the ATR for an upside move for the day -if the low is in place.

Taq - thanks...
Nice trade WT.
  • #3,668
  • Jan 7, 2011 10:17pm Jan 7, 2011 10:17pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Hey Big Pipin,

Don't beat yourself up. It doesn't help. I have not had a good start this week. Did better in my live "demo" account with target trading practice than in my performance account LOL. Not worried, I know it is just about getting in the swing. You have more than enough info. on how to proceed to improve on what you have been doing. Your "terrible bad luck" and "terrible ability to trade forks" as you put it can be fixed. It is all tied to having the right information, in the right context of understanding and the right approach....
Thanks . Is it just me, but the last couple forks I've drawn held up for a few days, then they get broken, and I have to re-do my analysis. Maybe its because I was trading off 1hr charts, and not 240min like Taq and others.

As of today, I've switched over all my 1hr charts to 4hr charts to help filter out this chop.

----

Gbp/chf is one of my setups im lookin at for next week. I've done like Taq and others and have switched to bars for this example. It is kind of easier on the eyes i suppose.

Anyway, it's times like these I get confused, when price is giving conflicting information about its future direction. We broke above a major resistace level at 1.4880.. ok so thats bullish.

We also have major resistance not far away at 1.51. I doubt price is going to come down to the lower median line (of green fork) any time soon, and if anything, from looking at this big run up, it will probably retrace maybe 30-50% at most then go higher, but will it break the 1.51?... imposible to know.

The bear in me, says to short this, dispite the major run, because its still just a retracement on the overall bearish trend.

How do you guys deal with forks when price zooms through the median line with no retracement back to it? The rules of forks state that you can only take a trade when price is bouncing off one of the lines, right?. Ultra bullish/bearish moves dont seem to offer the chance of taking a trade if there is no retrace back to the fork...

Is that green fork I have pointless, at least at the moment?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,669
  • Jan 7, 2011 10:32pm Jan 7, 2011 10:32pm
Also, what about "old" forks. When should a fork be moved to a new pivot? is there a rule for this?

Here is an older chart of cad/jpy that I have not yet updated, but it seems to hold up price well.

I drew a fork with the new lower swing (where I marked on the chart "p3?" ) but it didnt look good.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,670
  • Edited 3:32am Jan 8, 2011 3:06am | Edited 3:32am
Quoting big_pipin
Also, what about "old" forks. When should a fork be moved to a new pivot? is there a rule for this?

Here is an older chart of cad/jpy that I have not yet updated, but it seems to hold up price well.

I drew a fork with the new lower swing (where I marked on the chart "p3?" ) but it didnt look good.
Hello Big Pipin,

About "old forks"...if they are still working, keep them. Your selection of P3...chart attached. Getting the basics would help there too . Get lucky...its for the taking. Arrows show touches. Your fork got some good touches...just to my eye there seemed to be another possibility that could gel some more. Nothing in stone, just another view.

FX4Newbies

P.S. I think what it is about your fork that bothers me is the fact that you have not considered the entire swing that would be responsible for the next move. Your fork chops it off, so it just doesn't seem credible: it looks a little jerry-rigged.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpyh4 1-7-11.jpg Size: 111 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpyh4 1-7-11-2.jpg Size: 95 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #3,671
  • Edited 4:18am Jan 8, 2011 3:50am | Edited 4:18am
Quoting big_pipin
Thanks . Is it just me, but the last couple forks I've drawn held up for a few days, then they get broken, and I have to re-do my analysis. Maybe its because I was trading off 1hr charts, and not 240min like Taq and others.

As of today, I've switched over all my 1hr charts to 4hr charts to help filter out this chop....
A fork on a 1-hour chart that holds up for days is pretty good to me .

As I was reading this, I heard so much about "your thoughts" on what price might do. When I look at your chart, I see that price has made a strong bullish move but has not yet cleared the downward fork. I don't want to think anything more than what it shows.

Now, I can say, "If price does this, then....". But until it does, I don't think it is wise to flood your mind with ideas...don't plan for price: "I doubt price is going to come down.." and "from looking at this big run up, it will probably retrace maybe 30-50% at most then go higher...". How do you know this: ...."because its still just a retracement on the overall bearish trend".

Seems like you are building a case for price in your mind. We don't have to think for price. It has a mind of its own. If it does exactly the opposite of what you expect, you won't even "see" it much less believe it if you do see it...so you'll be trapped by your own thoughts. Couple that with some of your forks and you have a double whammy to deal with.

Hope I was able to explain clearly my train of thought here.

All the best,

FX4Newbies

P.S. Bite the bullet: Get lucky! That will take care of all of the other specific questions you have asked about trading with forks.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #3,672
  • Jan 8, 2011 4:43am Jan 8, 2011 4:43am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Didn't expect to be next, but I am very grateful for it. Thanks Auxesis. Sent you a Thank You PM as well. I guess now my New Year in trading can begin .

FX4Newbies
And now you have 2 Vouches I gave you one because your charts are concise and give good insight to newbie traders.

And as to the matter of the vouching system:

Yes it is broken, i try to stick to the guidelines thus ive only given 2 vouches so far, both to traders in this Thread because quite frankly this is one of Five (to me) good threads that i actually bother reading.

I quit the EURUSD thread because quite frankly the muppetry in there has become insane, people with 10+V's in there really don't understand the basic concepts of trading and are probably still sitting on a demo account. It is truly sad. Everyone claims to be some kind of fucking wizard with a magic crystal ball and a rainbow pooping unicorn and the people with the V's are usually posting such bad advice and when things dont turn their way they have these magical Break even Stop losses appearing all over the place with phrases such as:

"Moved to BE+1" <-- Posting chart right as a wave down/up comes
"Took 20 pip Profits and im out" <-- 5 minutes after they posted their chart
"Exited and reversed position at the bottom" <-- Even though they were preaching a 80 pip drop and were dead sure

So yeah, Kudos to people in this thread keep the good work going and im happy to see that its not spam flooded by a bunch of idiots, and its amazing to see how people in here are actually nice to eachother and being helpful with their analysis of forks.

I do post charts in here from time to time but im more focused on S/R analysis right now because Forks are acting dodgy and to be honest only the D1 and 4H forks are truly working right now and its kind of pointless to repost a chart thats already been posted by 5 other traders in here

But back to the topic of vouches, i stopped caring about them to be honest, i had 4 vouches, then i decided to rant about the tools and the wannabe traders with 10+V's then i lost 2 vouches now i have 5 for some weird reason, probably because someone actually looked at my post history and saw my charts and analysis.
So it would be great to see if the admins decided to reevaluate the vouching system.

Either way, enjoy your vouch from me, have a nice weekend to everyone and see you on sunday

I need to get rid of my massive hangover now ^^
  • #3,673
  • Jan 8, 2011 7:53am Jan 8, 2011 7:53am
The modified schiff in the first chart (blue) describes the "path" of price very well.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UC 2.GIF Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UC.GIF Size: 37 KB
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #3,674
  • Jan 8, 2011 8:01am Jan 8, 2011 8:01am
Closeup of lower forks
(I added a trendline and a lower warning line to modified schiff)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UC 3.GIF Size: 40 KB
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #3,675
  • Edited 2:15pm Jan 8, 2011 8:17am | Edited 2:15pm
Quoting Orbital
And now you have 2 Vouches I gave you one because your charts are concise and give good insight to newbie traders.
Thanks Orbital. Glad to hear you are of that opinion. I try to be as clear as possible because it is difficult once traders start off on the wrong foot, to help them get back on track with trading: primarily because of the emotional hurdles. I feel that if I can help them from the very beginning, they will not lose as much time in getting to where they would like to be. I think many believe if they just get the information, they can do it. So they go from site to site, grabbing from here and there: they get all these pieces and don't realize that information has to be utilized in a certain framework and understanding and even in a certain sequence. Otherwise, trading can be your worst nightmare. It's like buying an item to assemble: you have all these parts with no instructions and not even sure what it is going to look like. Will be posting another article on the blog soon entitled Strength Training For Traders to give some "emotional" trading guidelines.

Enjoy your weekend as well and thanks again,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #3,676
  • Jan 8, 2011 8:55am Jan 8, 2011 8:55am
Quoting big_pipin
Thanks . Is it just me, but the last couple forks I've drawn held up for a few days, then they get broken, and I have to re-do my analysis. Maybe its because I was trading off 1hr charts, and not 240min like Taq and others.

As of today, I've switched over all my 1hr charts to 4hr charts to help filter out this chop....
Hi Big! My 2 cents on the gbpchf setup. First of all, i don't believe in exotic pairs. They are not respecting S&R in anyway, each of these exotic pair are mainly reacting against most of all the USD, and in a lesser manner against the JPY. So in order to maximize my analysis, i limit myself to USD pairs. USD pair can hardly be trade on 1hr chart because of spreads getting very wild at time of news so i prefer trading on a 4hr chart, or at least consider a wider stop loss because of the news effect.

This being said, Fibonacci analysis of gbpchf. Major trend is down. Weekly down to 1.2000, Daily up to 1.5200-5390, but bearish under 5100. Anyway to me, gbpchf is a chaotic pair. Flip a coin.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchfh4.gif Size: 18 KB
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #3,677
  • Jan 8, 2011 1:48pm Jan 8, 2011 1:48pm
nice chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.jpg Size: 89 KB
  • #3,678
  • Jan 8, 2011 5:01pm Jan 8, 2011 5:01pm
EU240

i think this is worth keeping an eye on for a 'lazy' short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-01-09_0857.png Size: 39 KB
  • #3,679
  • Jan 8, 2011 7:44pm Jan 8, 2011 7:44pm
...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GC.GIF Size: 34 KB
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #3,680
  • Jan 8, 2011 10:55pm Jan 8, 2011 10:55pm
I like to dig deeper into a chart than what is readily seen. On the chart below, the pitchfork does a very good job at describing the path of price. However, there is a force occurring within the ellipses which is causing price to behave in a similar way. Does anyone care to illustrate what is causing this to occur?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.GIF Size: 20 KB
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
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