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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #10,061
  • Jan 7, 2011 1:37pm Jan 7, 2011 1:37pm
Quoting redsword11
Attachment

Attachment

Attachment

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: kiwi.jpg Size: 75 KB



......added to slv stops @ 28.29
  • #10,062
  • Jan 7, 2011 1:45pm Jan 7, 2011 1:45pm
Quoting Custos
guys, you heard that geithner said that the US is at the brink of bankruptcy?


If that is true then the whole world will be in deep shit soon.
isn't it obvious. They have accumulated enormous debts. I blame others as well for letting them get on so much debt.
Soviet Union long gone, but USA has got military budget 2-3 times bigger in comparison to when she was competing against another super power. It is sign of madness. Bin Laden and Co should have been dealt by CIA and other special special forces with much lower budget. I will not go into cr*p papers , mortgages and overall over consumption on credit.
  • #10,063
  • Jan 7, 2011 1:52pm Jan 7, 2011 1:52pm
Hi,

I was treading the last few posts and wanted to chime in with my view.

I think it is incredibly pessimistic to take the attitude that everything goes to zero (even if it does take 100 years ;-D).

Yes trading can be difficult but I sincerely believe that the sorts of systems that you guys are following now (trend following) are profitable over the long run. The secret in my opinion is having a good risk reward ratio along with the knowledge of when to stay out of the market.

If your system is based off of price action this shouldn't be a problem, sure you will get caught in the beginning of ranging markets but once you have established what it is doing you can stay out until the rang breaks. Also making sure you profit more when you win than you lose when you lose is another factor. When the trends establish make sure you take full advantage.

Also diversification as Custos has quitely highlighted is key. Sure markets will consolidate, but something somewhere will trend so as long as you not relying soley on one instrument you should give yourself half a chance of making money.

Having said all of this, I am fully aware that trading is not an easy game and completely agree with Custos about testing a strategy over a long period of time (minimum a decade, best if you do more) and a multitude of different instruments. If you come out profitable with this then you have something that is relatively robust.

Anyway I just wanted to give you my take on the discussion, I hope that is ok.

Best

Micardo
  • #10,064
  • Jan 7, 2011 2:02pm Jan 7, 2011 2:02pm
Quoting Custos
Interesting, I read their last post on the site. What strikes me totally is that they only tested it on one instrument.
I mean, one instrument is far from enough. Okay they had several years of data, but if one wants to create a really robust strategy, you need several instruments. I typically use up to 50 instruments from all kinds of markets and test it at least on 10 years of data. If 90% of them perform, I use the system, otherwise it gets dropped.
I think that would have saved them, if they just included more instruments. Cause then you can...
You put it well Custos.
Manually it is impossible to back test so much data.
I am thinking of teaming up with some guy who is strong at coding to do this kind of stuff. My psychology is many degrees stronger. if I have statistically confirmed knowledge I will enter and stay in trades according to rules 100%.

BTW, by instruments you mean currencies, commodities, bonds, stocks, options and so forth or just different currencies?
  • #10,065
  • Jan 7, 2011 2:21pm Jan 7, 2011 2:21pm
WASHINGTON (By David Lawder and Glenn Somerville) - The United States may hit the legal limit on its ability to borrow by March 31 and faces serious consequences unless Congress acts by then to raise it, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Thursday. "Even a short-term or limited default would have catastrophic economic consequences that would last for decades," Geithner said in a letter to U.S. Senate Majority leader Harry Reid that was issued by Treasury.
Geithner said it was hard to pin down exactly when the current $14.3 trillion ceiling on the debt limit would be pierced but urged Congress to act before the end of the first quarter to avoid the risk of pushing the United States into default.
At a briefing later, a U.S. Treasury official urged lawmakers preparing for a new budget, and a likely fractious debate over spending, not to mix up the debt-limit issue with calls for greater restraint in government spending.
CONFIDENT CONGRESS TO ACT
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, expressed confidence that Congress will raise the debt limit if only because not doing so would have such a damaging impact.
"Our view is this needs to get done, it will get done," the official said.
  • #10,066
  • Jan 7, 2011 2:29pm Jan 7, 2011 2:29pm
Hi Micardo,

I agree with you here.

Systems per say i imagine can break eventually if based on anything but price itself.

Over time i imagine price can change its "attitude" but the underlying factors of price will always be there.

As long as there is inneficiencies in the markets there will always be movements and volatility.... trends.

I watched that video called broke by covel (trend following book). Interesting stuff.

The most important take away for me was that trend traders dont predict, they simply follow the action.

Yes, we may not get tops and bottoms, but we surely arent exposed to huge disasters by following the trend and this way avoiding falling knifes as such.

As long as supply and demand exists the markets will always breakout and trend.

As long as this happens, im happy lol.

Quoting Micardo
Hi,

I was treading the last few posts and wanted to chime in with my view.

I think it is incredibly pessimistic to take the attitude that everything goes to zero (even if it does take 100 years ;-D).

Yes trading can be difficult but I sincerely believe that the sorts of systems that you guys are following now (trend following) are profitable over the long run. The secret in my opinion is having a good risk reward ratio along with the knowledge of when to stay out of the market.

If your system is based off of price action...
  • #10,067
  • Jan 7, 2011 2:30pm Jan 7, 2011 2:30pm
Quoting Micardo
Hi,

I was treading the last few posts and wanted to chime in with my view.

I think it is incredibly pessimistic to take the attitude that everything goes to zero (even if it does take 100 years ;-D).

Yes trading can be difficult but I sincerely believe that the sorts of systems that you guys are following now (trend following) are profitable over the long run. The secret in my opinion is having a good risk reward ratio along with the knowledge of when to stay out of the market.

If your system is based off of price action this shouldn't be a...
It is an academic exercise, MICARDO. Nothing more or less.

I like your thread by the way

Please, do stop by more often.

p.s. Are you familiar with DANuK
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=143593
AND
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=255112
  • #10,068
  • Jan 7, 2011 2:31pm Jan 7, 2011 2:31pm
Quoting redsword11
Attachment


......added to slv stops @ 28.29

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: kiwi.jpg Size: 69 KB




as suggested by price structure
  • #10,069
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:21pm Jan 7, 2011 3:21pm
Quoting shiko
I only can add, that no strategy will perform in years like 2008-2009 based on back testing. There must be wisdom. when to stay flat and when to trade. 2008/2009 was momentum trader's heaven.
BTW, I personally watched the very moment when the market started tanking from the very 2008 tip. It was scary moves. 40-50 pips in seconds and down down . I started trading then in the end of September 2008.
Trader must be able to change quickly in such circumstances....
agreed
  • #10,070
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:23pm Jan 7, 2011 3:23pm
Quoting shiko
isn't it obvious. They have accumulated enormous debts. I blame others as well for letting them get on so much debt.
Soviet Union long gone, but USA has got military budget 2-3 times bigger in comparison to when she was competing against another super power. It is sign of madness. Bin Laden and Co should have been dealt by CIA and other special special forces with much lower budget. I will not go into cr*p papers , mortgages and overall over consumption on credit.
yeah, it's just crazy. But I am afraid that it might affect us here in europe as well, if the US really goes bankrupt.
  • #10,071
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:28pm Jan 7, 2011 3:28pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: loony.jpg Size: 55 KB
  • #10,072
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:28pm Jan 7, 2011 3:28pm
Quoting Micardo
Hi,

I was treading the last few posts and wanted to chime in with my view.

I think it is incredibly pessimistic to take the attitude that everything goes to zero (even if it does take 100 years ;-D).

Yes trading can be difficult but I sincerely believe that the sorts of systems that you guys are following now (trend following) are profitable over the long run. The secret in my opinion is having a good risk reward ratio along with the knowledge of when to stay out of the market.

If your system is based off of price action this shouldn't be a...
yeah, completely agree. hm, I think, and have kind of confirmed it through my many backtests, that there are definitely systems that "should" never fail. Of course who knows what comes next decade, but I am quite confident in my systems I now have. But it is key that one understands market behavior, or behavior of participants, in order to come up with consistently profitable systems, which perform "most of the time".
And most of the time is definitely enough to make money long-term.
  • #10,073
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:31pm Jan 7, 2011 3:31pm
Quoting shiko
You put it well Custos.
Manually it is impossible to back test so much data.
I am thinking of teaming up with some guy who is strong at coding to do this kind of stuff. My psychology is many degrees stronger. if I have statistically confirmed knowledge I will enter and stay in trades according to rules 100%.

BTW, by instruments you mean currencies, commodities, bonds, stocks, options and so forth or just different currencies?
Exactly, that's also another point why backtests are in my opinion so important. If you've seen equity curves of many instruments that all just go up over several years, the psychological factor becomes more and more irrelevant. Cause you KNOW that you have an edge. There is a big difference between believing and knowing. And knowing helps get psychology out of the way.

Yes, I mean currencies, commodities, bonds,... But since I mostly trade currencies, around half are anyways currencies and the rest is a mix of other financial instruments.
  • #10,074
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:32pm Jan 7, 2011 3:32pm
Quoting shiko
WASHINGTON (By David Lawder and Glenn Somerville) - The United States may hit the legal limit on its ability to borrow by March 31 and faces serious consequences unless Congress acts by then to raise it, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Thursday....
haha, crazy
  • #10,075
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:33pm Jan 7, 2011 3:33pm
Quoting Pipalicious
Hi Micardo,

I agree with you here.

Systems per say i imagine can break eventually if based on anything but price itself.

Over time i imagine price can change its "attitude" but the underlying factors of price will always be there.

As long as there is inneficiencies in the markets there will always be movements and volatility.... trends.

I watched that video called broke by covel (trend following book). Interesting stuff.

The most important take away for me was that trend traders dont predict, they simply follow the action.

Yes, we may not...

good conclusions. I've reached similar conclusions.
  • #10,076
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:53pm Jan 7, 2011 3:53pm
Quoting Custos
haha, crazy
Interesting point is that he is not talking about cutting some expenses and rising taxes on rich. US elite has failed and as I know from history what happen to elites that fail France and old Russia come to mind.
  • #10,077
  • Jan 7, 2011 11:57pm Jan 7, 2011 11:57pm
Damn! I am impressed with MICARDO. I have been reading his thread. Look at the charts he posted here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=105

He nailed the reversal point of every SINGLE ONE(i mean, every single one) of them when you do a followup. DanUk, eat your heart out! hahaha.

(just kidding there, i respect danuk too.)

I like the way micardo mix fundamentals into it.
  • #10,078
  • Jan 8, 2011 1:28am Jan 8, 2011 1:28am
Quoting Pipalicious
Hi Micardo,

I agree with you here.

Systems per say i imagine can break eventually if based on anything but price itself.

Over time i imagine price can change its "attitude" but the underlying factors of price will always be there.

As long as there is inneficiencies in the markets there will always be movements and volatility.... trends.

I watched that video called broke by covel (trend following book). Interesting stuff.

The most important take away for me was that trend traders dont predict, they simply follow the action.

Yes, we may not...
i like that,
it's a very simple idea, good,,
only an analysis, and I'm always wrong, don't follow me,
  • #10,079
  • Jan 8, 2011 7:56am Jan 8, 2011 7:56am
I started back testing NM strategy . I trade it but never backtested. started beginning of 2008. I can go as far as 2000, but not on 1H chart which is a trigger, set ups are 4H. so far it looks like very robust strategy.
  • #10,080
  • Jan 8, 2011 8:24am Jan 8, 2011 8:24am
I noticed one peculiar behavior of this strategy. sometimes it gives signal after breaking retracement trend line and pbc, then hits stop. in this case I believe retracement trend line should be moved to accommodate new situation.
Then watching if price is capable to break previous high/low of retracement if it fails and goes for retracement trend line again with pbc and often even without it is is a good bet that second trade is a really good one.
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