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AUD/USD

  • #26,821
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:07pm Jan 7, 2011 3:07pm
Quoting VennD
usd/cad
-------
15.2k ---> 22.0k - Sell
7.6% ---> 7.6% - Sell

aud/usd
--------
1.6% ---> 1.8% - Sell
34.3 ---> 34.3 - Sell
71.0k ---> 103.0k - Sell
9.8% ---> 9.4% - Sell

Added
------
Consumers Credit (MI) Previous $3.4k / If decrease Buy AU. ($1.35b)

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bought it
  • #26,822
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:14pm Jan 7, 2011 3:14pm
Quoting stock
Everybody is waiting for the news, especially the Non-Farm Employment Change
, if it is higher than expected then we might see a strong downtrend on Aussie, but especially on Eur.
If it is lower than expected... well, all hell will break loose! And I will be selling the USD/JPY, which is the best barometer for this news. Last year, when the news came out worst, the USD/JPY dropped more than 100 pips.
Data are strong to the south but don't u see just now ? As if she is lousy...lazy...and many more zy zy....

I guess she is pregnant by the buyers
  • #26,823
  • Edited 3:38pm Jan 7, 2011 3:24pm | Edited 3:38pm
Quoting redsword11
Attachment


bought it
That's ok bro !.... Myself disagree if she go straight down because the rule in forex is every upmoves and downmoves must have retracement..Need to bring her up for retracement next week. I guess..But if she refuse...How ? Place yr tight SL ?? Hope she doesn't suddenly jump down when market opens like before.....coz data are more heavy to the south...esp the Nonfarm Payroll (HIGH IMPACT) . 200-300pips is very easy for her..thts her style-too greedy as to wht she hs done during the upmoves..k...tc..hv a nice weekend...
  • #26,824
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:27pm Jan 7, 2011 3:27pm
Quoting VennD
That's ok bro !.... Myself disagree if she go straight down because the rule in forex is every upmoves and downmoves must have retracement..Need to bring her up for retracement next week. I guess..But if she refuse...How ? Place yr tight SL ?? Hope she doesn't suddenly jump down when market open like before..

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pole is south - retracement is north, will monitor PA, could be just a scalp
  • #26,825
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:39pm Jan 7, 2011 3:39pm
sold @ 0.99677 stops @ 0.99827
  • #26,826
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:45pm Jan 7, 2011 3:45pm
Quoting redsword11
Attachment


pole is south - retracement is north, will monitor PA, could be just a scalp

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closed most - free trade
  • #26,827
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:55pm Jan 7, 2011 3:55pm
Quoting redsword11
sold @ 0.99677 stops @ 0.99827

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  • #26,828
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:56pm Jan 7, 2011 3:56pm
A couple of days ago, I saw divergence on the AUDUSD hourly where the prices were reach higher highs but the MACD and RSI were making lower highs. The same thing happened on USDCHF except the price showed lower lows and the MACD and RSI showed higher lows. I knew I should have shorted AUDUSD and bought USDCHF but I didn't. Now I regret staying on the sidelines.
  • #26,829
  • Jan 7, 2011 4:04pm Jan 7, 2011 4:04pm
Quoting redsword11
Attachment

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out, and scalped cable
  • #26,830
  • Edited 10:19am Jan 8, 2011 8:12am | Edited 10:19am
Please, help with AUDUSD, below 4H and 30min charts...

In my count, we are drawing a big expanded (or running?) flat to complete a wave 4 (3-3-5).

The big wave B up has finished with an a-b-c, where b exceeds minor wave V (within C of B). I label them as a-b-c because 'a' was 5 waves down and 'b' was only 3 waves up -> see second chart. Then, the big drop is the 'c'.

However, the big fall from the top should be a wave 1 down, not a 'c' within an a-b-c structure...

Am I missing something?


Also, can you see any bullish alternative count?


Thanks,
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Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #26,831
  • Jan 8, 2011 2:50pm Jan 8, 2011 2:50pm
Quoting mrbandwidth
Am I missing something?
Yes, don't concentrate your analysis on the waves only, since this pair is one of the most difficult pair to trade in forex seen many elements drive it and in addition it has its own personality.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #26,832
  • Jan 8, 2011 3:08pm Jan 8, 2011 3:08pm
Quoting Alki
Yes, don't concentrate your analysis on the waves only, since this pair is one of the most difficult pair to trade in forex seen many elements drive it and in addition it has its own personality.

Thanks, but I don't use waves only. Nevertheless, I have this doubt from a theorical point of view...

BTW, congratulations again: you said some days ago we were to parity again and here we are. I'm very impressed.

Do you have any prediction for the days coming? Back to 1.0180 to retest resistance and former top?

Thanks again,
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #26,833
  • Jan 8, 2011 3:16pm Jan 8, 2011 3:16pm
Keep it simple. Earnings start next week. AU likes to follow the S&P. S&P futures have already broken through heavy resistance at the 61.8 fib (i.e. we're going up)

AU has good support at .9900. Target 1.0300

When all else fails (like driving yourself crazy with EW lines and other deep n meaningless TA *apologies to EW fans*) just plot a simple horizontal line on support and resistance points and only trade those.

Manage your risk wisely.
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  • #26,834
  • Jan 8, 2011 4:14pm Jan 8, 2011 4:14pm
Quoting mrbandwidth
Thanks, but I don't use waves only. Nevertheless, I have this doubt from a theorical point of view...

BTW, congratulations again: you said some days ago we were to parity again and here we are. I'm very impressed.

Do you have any prediction for the days coming? Back to 1.0180 to retest resistance and former top?

Thanks again,
Thanks for the congratulations lol.

Frankly, i'm flat, since i observed correlation between NZD/USD and AUD/USD and waiting for the 0.7500 level for NZD/USD what's going on with, to see the whole market how it will move for the next year. If you see my two charts of the EUR/USD posted on the beginning of december, i mentioned also that this pair could finish at aroud a level that i show it in. I indicated also to where it could fall. That was from one month ago. Please, have a look at closing price of the year, you'll see if i saw right or not and have a look at that pair where it is now and you'll see if i saw right or not. I'm saying that to drive in front of all that story, the importance to see what direction forex could take next week and that's why i'm waiting.

To answer more clear to your question, i have my own idea, but since i have no signal from the market, i have to wait. Waiting means not loosing money, means winnning my losses lol. My normal trades are very aggressive with tight stop loss, that's why i have to wait.

Someone said: take care of you losses, your profits will take care for themselves.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #26,835
  • Jan 9, 2011 2:49am Jan 9, 2011 2:49am
If I may weigh into the possible direction discussion. As per my post last week on my bullish outlook for this pair and my long position which was taken at arount 9925ish.

I had 9910 as the bottom for this pair earlier last week and thus placed my stop just below which was not taken out, not yet anyway. Yes I have taken1/2 trade off in profit just in case but I still see this pair moving back up to 1.03 and to 1.05-1.08 by years end.

I'll be trying to build a position in light of this view. As was previously stated there are many other factors that drive this pair so its not very easy.

Cheers
  • #26,836
  • Jan 9, 2011 5:40am Jan 9, 2011 5:40am
Aud/Usd Target 0.8600/0.8900

Australian dollar faces mounting risks
By Neil Mellor
Investors should be cautious about viewing the Australian dollar's weakening as a buying opportunity, says Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.
He points out that the currency was one of 2010s star performers, hitting a 28-year high against the US dollar on the back of attractive interest rates and an accommodative global environment for commodities.
As such, Mr Mellor says, the greatest risks to the Aussie in 2011 would appear to stem from tighter Chinese monetary policy and more signs of economic improvement in the US. But he also warns that developments closer to home pose a more immediate risk of further weakening.
He points to fears that the recent floods in Queensland could have a significant direct impact on industry, and exports in particular. Moreover, he says, the Aussie's strength has hit non-commodity exporters – and he warns there is little sign of a marked improvement in domestic demand.
"Higher mortgage rates in 2010 have imposed an increasing strain on household finances, so the fear is that growth might yet stall," he says.
  • #26,837
  • Jan 9, 2011 6:02am Jan 9, 2011 6:02am
Quoting grashid
here u go........
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=26794

0.996/0.998 is the gate for this...i am waiting to add my short if she touch as per above link/previous post....

remember.... overall trend confirmed = down and this is just small retracement....

scalping should be good next week until Thursday..then only we able to see a real movement...

good luck

g
  • #26,838
  • Jan 9, 2011 6:26am Jan 9, 2011 6:26am
Quoting grashid
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=26794

0.996/0.998 is the gate for this...i am waiting to add my short if she touch as per above link/previous post....

remember.... overall trend confirmed = down and this is just small retracement....

scalping should be good next week until Thursday..then only we able to see a real movement...

good luck

g

I'm confused: you said 1.0266 -1.0530, and now shorts?

Could you clarify, please?

Thanks,
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #26,839
  • Jan 9, 2011 6:36am Jan 9, 2011 6:36am
Hi


new in the club however i would like to offer my huble personal opinion ... the Aud is going down. However i would either wait to see it around 1,0020 and south again before i short it or breaking the 0.99. I dont use t/p only trailing stops since i am terrible in taking profits on my own ;-)
  • #26,840
  • Jan 9, 2011 7:21am Jan 9, 2011 7:21am
Quoting mrbandwidth
I'm confused: you said 1.0266 -1.0530, and now shorts?

Could you clarify, please?

Thanks,
mate...go and read carefully the number that i am posting as well as what i did told....do u know retracement? and do you know an overall trend? if not then go to www.babypips.com n learn....


one more things i did mentioned 1.002 and not 1.02...read carefully...

good luck

g
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