james16 Chart Thread

Hey Spook

Be careful here for a bar to be a BUOB it must have a lower low then the previous bar

Best
Mike

I meant the one where you first arrow is at July 26th.

For those interested I have gone ahead and closed this trade first of the year

A nice start!

Its off a nice area.

Red dashed is the exit? OMG!

Thank you telling me sir , I missed it.

Reading this thread though, I don`t trade with original j16 method.I mean ,what I ve learnt here became my backbone for my trading though, I don`t use 365EMA or entry at PA Breakout,,etc. I added a little twist（my thought) to original j16 method so I think I`d better keep it from here public forum.

It`s not much but, I m happy if I can share about my little experience ,with someone, which is what I struggled with when I was a newcomer in this thread.

when I learnt about PA in the thread for the beginning , what I struggled with was that ` whao! a lots of PAs! ... but ,which one should I take ?` 　

what should I check when I find PA?
location ? size of PA? TL,divergence,what indicators shows us? ...etc.
It wasn`t easy to choose good PA for the newbie like me.

so I made my rules (after too many bitter experiences)and things got better little by little (at least I don`t need much time to judge which one(PA) is good(confortable) for me now)

one of my rules is this.
・keep myself from Couter Trade.

I dont take counter PA.
so how do I difine Counter PA?
How do I difine a trend?
I use EMAs to difine trend.
and for me Counter PA is that PA which against EMAs(Trend)
It doesnt have to be EMA , I use EMAs because I feel confortable with it ,that`s all.
I think whatever you like is fine(EMA,MA,TL..etc), what important is whether you are confotable or not with it.

so,,chart. here is my examples.
2011.11.22(FXDD)
Dailychart
EURUSD, EURJPY,NZDUSD,USDTRY
Blue line=10EMA
Yellow line=25EMA
and I use those 2EMAs to judge trend.

all chart spot on the day 2011,11,22
on the day I found 4 daily PA in 15 pairs which I m monitoring.

In this case I will take 2PAs as a trading sign, EU and UT.
The reason I choose those 2 pairs is that,,,
rejection from 25EMA(yellow) &Close below EMAs.
I think size of those 2PAs are rather smaller(than EJ&NU pair) but I like those EU&UT more with the reasons above and, in addtion to it , EMAs angle is good(EURUSD)
so I will use those 2PAs(EU&UT) as a trading sign.

and then EJ&NU.
imo ,about size of PA ,EJ&NU PAs are rather better than EU&UT PA.
but I will pass it because its PAs are against EMAs.
EJ=BEOB/size,location are not bad (I think) but its close is above 10/25EMA
NU=BEOB/this pair also not bad(its size maybe rather good) ..but its close are rejected by 25EMA(yellow)
so,, I will pass those 2 pairs PA.

///

For me what most important is that `stick to my rule book!!`
I swear myself that I never take Counter Trade anymore.
and I difine a trend by 10-25EMAs(for examples, it would be whatever you like), so how good size or location of PA is but if its against EMAs , I judge it as a counter trade and don`t take it as a sign.
with this way, I sometimes miss good setup but sometimes I can save myself out from losing trade.and of course I lose sometimes.
by sticking to the rules ,I win sometime lose sometimes it`doesnt change though, things become clearer(simple) than before. that is more important for me.

One more thing,I m always trying to judge quality of PA within 5~10 second. If I can`t do it within 10 second , then simply I pass that pair.
Imo,if PA is great(size,location,trend,with many confluence) ,,(almost) everyone can see it at once. It doesnt take much time to pick up a PA like that .
so ,Imo,10 second is enoughhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...im/winking.gif If I try to take only great(clear) sign(which everyone can see) , chance will increase.

Those are 4hPA.

PAs are 2010.12.31 16:00(FXDD)
4hchart
EURUSD,USDCAD,EURCAD
Blue line=10EMA
Yellow line=25EMA
Light Steel Blue Line=50EMA
and I use those 3EMAs to judge trend(Using it as I wrote in the previous post)

EURUSD=Pinbar, I think size of the Pinbar is fine , are located at swing High(reject from 1.34),no consolidation. everything looks fine to me.

USDCAD=BEOB, its size is ok to me , off from EMAs ,but not swing High.

EURCAD=BEOB, size is ok, location is also nice(at Swing High, Close below 1,33)

I think EURUSD and EURCAD`s PA looks better than USDCAD`s PA, especially about its locations.

But if I met the situation like this, I`d choose USDCAD`s BEOB as my trading sign,, or might pass all 3 PAs.

Because of that one of my rules.
The rule is that I do never take Counter PA.
what counter PA for me is as I explainedin the previous post.

Pinbar of EURUSD is, imo , +A setup , but clearly being counter setup against 3EMAs . as I follow my rule , I won`t trade it.

For me EURCAD`s BEOB looks good too. but PA is above EMAs. because of that reason ,I regard this BEOB counter PA. so, I will pass it.

I think USDCAD`s BEOB has pro&con(imo, qualities of this PA are not better than EURUSD,EURCAD`s PA)
Pro/off from EMA & broke out Double Bottom
con/ location is not good for BEOB(not a Swing High)

I think , percentage whether I take this PA(USDCAD) or not are 50;50(%)
honestly speaking , that depends on my feeling.
but I can sure that I never take EURUSD`s Pinbar &EURCAD`s BEOB.

most important thing for me is that [Stick to my rules]
I think ,,whether the rules are right or wrong is not a big problem now, I keep learning in the thread, and time pass , soon I can find the rules which suited for me.
some of my rules are,,,
・never trade lower time frame(personally I don`t use PAs under 4hTF. I admit that I can`t cope with lower time frame)
・Do not take counter trade(I can`t deal with counter trade. too big work to do for me, I know that)
・judge the PA(whether I take or not) within 5~10second.
,,,and so on.

To Stick to the Rules sometimes might makes me feel I am in a bird cage (and I sometimes feel that I want to fly free~~♪)
But from my (little)experience, I think that binding myself by rules make my eyes open too , giving to me a clear view on the market(I became to look at the market simpler than before)
and more importantly , ,being binded by many rules which I made by myself, it makes me feel that I can control(graspe) myself more firmly in the market ,not afraid of losing balance.

I think , I do trade on my own belief ,, belief that I can not trade in Lower time frames , that I can not do good on counter trading..etc.
so I made my rules to keep myself from things I can`t do.. and then PA and PPZ , things like that will come later.
if I can feel the firm ground under my feet , then I will be able to jump without hesitation.

that`s my thought .hope this will help someone even a little and thanks for everyone reading all my bad bad English to the end.

Ken.

thats why I used if

Thanks Pinbar,
Here is what I was looking at when I posted my initial questions. These are Weekly, daily &4HR charts of the British Pound Futures. Keeping in mind that every time I think I see PPZ's like you do I realize I still don't, here is what I see:

- Weekly: Makes good sense why we bounced off the 5350 area today as it has been an S/R flip zone a few times in the past.

- Daily: Same picture. But seems we are now trading up into a smaller PPZ in the 5640 area.

- 4 HR: That smaller PPZ on the Daily at the 5640area aligns with a bearish TL coming from the November highs. Here on this TF you can also really see that since November we have been making LL's & LH's.

So I am looking at a short scenario at the 5640 area. Any feedback from you or other J16 members would be so much appreciated. Also, my questions from the first post were:
1. How much does it matter if the PPZ is not a big round Number?
2. Am I looking for PA to support a short trade off this level? I think Pinbar answered this really good with a great chart demonstration.

Thank You Kindly and in advance Wish you Guys a Great Weekend!

Mike, may I ask. I see it is off 1.7500 BRN with good space too.
But it is right before 1.7400 BRN

I thought maybe for this pair you don't count every 100 pips but 500?
How to know to which pair which BRN interval is more significant?

I many times change to 500 or even 1000 because 100 pip look like too many BRN's on the chart...

Hey Adi

BRN is something I termed in here as every 500 pips on all pairs Somewhere along the massive posts people use it for every 100 pips. To me every 100 pips are just round numbers. Now BRNs are important so are Large round numbers. But it depends on each scenario

Best
Mike

Ok, thanks this makes sence. So I will put 500 as my BRN lines.
And will pay attention to 100 RN
ahhh and VBRN is every 1000 then!

I think I understand this now. Thanks!

It's funny you say this because I have always thought the same thing. I still believe that at times, you have some price action prior to the NFP friday indicating what it will be. I know I have traded some CAD price action in the past that was the day before a big release, and surprise surprise, the PA was correct to how the market responded to the news release....

Oh, just thought this.
What do you think if I will set BRN being 500 for Daily and 100 for 4H.
Will that make sense?

Hey Adi


If it makes sense to YOU

Ok the new years a bit old now

Bit of a wild start to the year PA wise... I have not liked very much of the last few days had a few trades that got eaten up like kfc

however following on from previous comments (BRN). This one stuck out (at me) and i took it, very simple break down... continuation through BRN..

Looks good on my charts. These lines are about where I want them to be.
I will try this way.

Touch Trade entered at 1.5550 for reasons:

1. Two preceeding BEOVB
2. Round Number
3. 150 EMA just above
4. Daily - Last two bars had double low with lower close. Third bar expected to go down.
5. 4 hour declining trend line
6. Overall bearish trend
7. PA suggested BEOVB-weekly to break due to 4H BEOVB
8. SL was just above the 4H BEOVB so risk/reward was pretty good.

The trade went to BRN 1.54
Initially my Target was 1.5410 but then I moved it to 1.5250 in anticipation of BEOVB-Weekly to break. Placed my stop loss at 1.5510

It did break the 4H trend line but not very strongly as that 4H bar did not close near to its low. I was still anticpiating further down move.

I did open a new position at the retest but closed it with 5+ pip as I did not see Europe make a move, and bacause it started range bounding I decided to close my second position. I still made +40 although I could have closed it at +150...Its okay for now.

1- What do you think of the analysis, anything to improve?
2- I cant seem to find anything in PA that suggested this strong up move except a) BEOVB-Weekly bottom acted as support b) 1H I saw a PB that bounced off BRN 1.54 but it did not close above the close of the previous candle + above trend line + above 1.5450 I ignored it.

Thanks for review.

if you look at that zone you will notice the small but yet a bearish otside bar in one Hourly which leads to that little pin on 4 hourly pin ( some feed no pin etc)...

This is why i like looking at the small time frames for a lower risk entries ?

cheers V