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AUD/USD

  • #26,741
  • Jan 6, 2011 10:34am Jan 6, 2011 10:34am
looks like a critical point to me
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Old Habits Die Hard.
  • #26,742
  • Edited Jan 7, 2011 4:34am Jan 6, 2011 10:38am | Edited Jan 7, 2011 4:34am
We go 1 step forward...I think by now everyone is ready to embark into a new chapter..trading on two pairs of currency instantly...worth a weeks' trade if u know how to..

EXPECT VOTALITY / BOTH PAIR ARE OF HIGH IMPACT FOR TODAY'S TRADES
-------------------------------------------------------------------
USD/CAD
-------
Jan 07 20:00 CAD Net Change in Employment (HI) / Previous 15.2k / If increase Sell UC
Jan 07 20:00 CAD Unemployment Rate (MI) / Previous 7.6% / If increase Buy UC


AUD/USD (All are USA Data)
-------
Jan 07 21:30 Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (LI) / Previous 1.6% / If increase Sell AU
Jan 07 21:30 Average Weekly Hours (LI) / Previous 34.3 / If increase or equal to..Sell AU
Jan 07 21:30 Nonfarm Payroll (HI) / Previous 39k / If increase Sell AU
Jan 07 21:30 Unemployment Rate (MI) / Previous 9.8k / If decrease Sell AU
Jan 07 22:30 Mr.B testifies (MI) ---------------Maybe this one is talking abt tht $600b / Revision of Earliest Data just released.

Legend
------
LI=Low Impact
MI=Medium Impact
HI=High Impact
  • #26,743
  • Edited Jan 7, 2011 1:50am Jan 6, 2011 10:54am | Edited Jan 7, 2011 1:50am
In this two trades, we'll be focusing on a SELL only... because rich men always sell... poor men always buy....

Now....study those two charts carefully...tq
  • #26,744
  • Jan 6, 2011 11:00am Jan 6, 2011 11:00am
Quoting bskwak1124
hmmm, very interesting... i did heard about this, but i am pretty sure not this quater, we need more bad news to trigger this little girl to fall hard... but i am sure not this quater.... There is recent news, saying ECB does know how to speed up the printing press.... so i am assuming not this quater.... maybe this june?

Many big players have been shouting re Aus$ over-valuation since it broke above 0.9000! Article below is just over 3 months ago, Aus$ was trading above 0.9400 THEN and NOW its WAY OVER- VALUED!!
Target 0.8600-0.8900 is easily achievable considering the hedge funds and Institutions have sold out on & above $1!



Aussie dollar '27pc overvalued'
By Michael Janda and staff

Updated Mon Sep 20, 2010 6:02pm AEST

Analysts say the Australian dollar is the world's most overvalued currency.

The dollar has climbed from about 81 US cents in June to close to 95 US cents this month, and Bloomberg says it is now overvalued by 27 per cent.

That means it is worth more when converted to other currencies and spent overseas than kept in Australian dollars and spent in Australia.

Westpac's global head of currency strategy, Robert Rennie, says investors are buying the Australian dollar because local interest rates are high compared to the rest of the world.

"The Australian dollar is very significant because it offers yields, high yields," he said.

"The RBA has been raising rates in a global world where central banks have been cutting rates and moving to quantitative easing."

Mr Rennie explains the concept called "purchasing power parity" is being used to show the Australian dollar is overvalued.

"I should be able to fly to the US ... and when I convert my Australian dollars into local currency I should be able to buy the same basket of goods for a similar price," he said.

"If I can't then that tells me that the Australian dollar might be over or undervalued depending on what that basket of goods cost me."

CommSec's chief economist Craig James says the finding is backed by his institution's iPod index.

"Both our iPod index and the Big Mac index are all suggesting, just like the Bloomberg study, that the Aussie dollar is overvalued," he said.

"Another way of looking at it though may be that the US dollar is too cheap."

Dollar to continue climb

Mr James sees potential for the Australian dollar to edge higher for the next couple of months before easing next year.

"I think the Aussie [dollar] is at risk of going higher in the short-term, particularly if this week the US Federal Reserve signifies that it wants to add more stimulus to the economy to get the US economy going," he said.

"I think the short-term risks are up on the upside. The longer that we go though and once, on our assumption, the US economic recovery consolidates, we get recoveries happening in US and Europe, European and US interest rates start to rise, that is remove some of the attraction, so 2011 we are looking for the Aussie dollar to soften."

But Mr Rennie thinks the reverse is more likely, with the Australian dollar falling on some subdued economic data over the next couple of months.
  • #26,745
  • Jan 6, 2011 11:17am Jan 6, 2011 11:17am
Quoting ely
Many big players have been shouting re Aus$ over-valuation since it broke above 0.9000! Article below is just over 3 months ago, Aus$ was trading above 0.9400 THEN and NOW its WAY OVER- VALUED!!
Target 0.8600-0.8900 is easily achievable considering the hedge funds and Institutions have sold out on & above $1!



Aussie dollar '27pc overvalued'
By Michael Janda and staff

Updated Mon Sep 20, 2010 6:02pm AEST

Analysts say the Australian dollar is the world's most overvalued currency.

The dollar has climbed from about 81 US cents in June to...

indeed, they are over-priced. But even if they said that, trend always win, not to say your info is wrong. Sometimes, technical over powered the fundamentals... I do believe aussie will reach the level of 0.90 level, but we need some kick... I will be waiting news from euro area... Protugal.... and Spain....
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #26,746
  • Jan 6, 2011 11:33am Jan 6, 2011 11:33am
Back in end of September they state its over-valued by 27%..it was 0.9400 then.
Take out the 27% from the 0.9400...THAT MAKES IT 0.6862 fair value!
That is also on par with last weeks article onThe IMF's implied PPP conversion rate for $A Australian dollar/US dollar rate at US68c!

I think the "kick" is in the fact that the Hedgies, Insti's have left the party!..and that is fact, as its widely been reported in the press, and also those left holding are "Mr Joe Public" who are still interested in the carry trade!!


GARETH BERRY: currency strategist, UBS

BERRY: We expect (that) . . . the dollar will fall to US97c in a month, and continue its descent towards US93c in three months' time.

There's the 0.9300 in 3 months!
Target remains 0.8600-0.8900

http://twurl.nl/oz2bmj
  • #26,747
  • Jan 6, 2011 11:41am Jan 6, 2011 11:41am
Did i miss something impt? Where did all these bears spring up from? AUD gives me fantastic yields, that is good enough for me in the short term.

Quoting ely
Back in end of September they state its over-valued by 27%..it was 0.9400 then.
Take out the 27% from the 0.9400...THAT MAKES IT 0.6862 fair value!
That is also on par with last weeks article onThe IMF's implied PPP conversion rate for $A Australian dollar/US dollar rate at US68c!

I think the "kick" is in the fact that the Hedgies, Insti's have left the party!..and that is fact, as its widely been reported in the press, and also those left holding are "Mr Joe Public" who are still interested in the carry trade!!


GARETH BERRY: currency...
  • #26,748
  • Jan 6, 2011 12:12pm Jan 6, 2011 12:12pm
Quoting Amanda2
Did i miss something impt? Where did all these bears spring up from? AUD gives me fantastic yields, that is good enough for me in the short term.
Exactly my point, when you have a currency that’s treated by the world as a play on commodities and risk, then that’s hardly a platform for sustainable currency appreciation; rather, that’s speculation. Cycles turn and every dog has its day. The A$ is having its day MAINLY due to China. As goes China's monetary tightening... so will go the Aussie dollar...and China is doing it at a quicker pace then you will be able to press that "close position" button!

Either way, its an excellent short..which is why i have some parked up on the ready at 1.0030 & above...but something tells me, this may be the last time we see parity for a long while!!

Target remains 0.8600-0.8900
  • #26,749
  • Jan 6, 2011 12:33pm Jan 6, 2011 12:33pm
Aussie dollar is 31% overvalued: OECD
December 20, 2010

‘Not recommending’

“While the Australian dollar has good fundamentals in terms of interest rates, its valuation means we’re not recommending buying it at the moment,” said Bilal Hafeez, head of currency strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in London. “The same goes for the New Zealand dollar.”

The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate at 4.75 per cent at its meeting this month, while New Zealand’s central bank rate is at 3 per cent and Brazil’s 10.75 per cent. That compares with the Federal Reserve’s target rate for overnight loans between banks of zero to 0.25 per cent and the European Central Bank’s 1 per cent main refinancing rate.

“An increase in commodity prices is quite broadly expected, so it’s priced in for the commodity currencies,” said Paul Robinson, the head of European currency strategy at Barclays Plc in London, who predicts the Aussie will weaken to 92 cents by the end of 2011. “The Australian and New Zealand dollars are very expensive.”

http://twurl.nl/srio5c
  • #26,750
  • Jan 6, 2011 1:34pm Jan 6, 2011 1:34pm
Quoting ely
Aussie dollar is 31% overvalued: OECD
December 20, 2010

‘Not recommending’

“While the Australian dollar has good fundamentals in terms of interest rates, its valuation means we’re not recommending buying it at the moment,” said Bilal Hafeez, head of currency strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in London. “The same goes for the New Zealand dollar.”

The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate at 4.75 per cent at its meeting this month, while New Zealand’s central bank rate is at 3 per cent and Brazil’s 10.75 per cent. That compares with the Federal...

Nice post. So the high rate caused a possitive inflation over the past months and now the currency is too strong. And now they are forced to lower the rate or leave it the way it is.. The end of expansion and begin of a contraction/recession if it continues.. Is this right? I'm still learning this part of forex don't shoot me
Old Habits Die Hard.
  • #26,751
  • Jan 6, 2011 1:50pm Jan 6, 2011 1:50pm
A/U retail now stands @ 1.49 shorts for every 1 long. This has been a dramatic fall over the last 3 days from a high of 4.29 shorts for every one long. Today has been slow, as expected with shorts taking profits and closing. If we can get enough traders to flip long, such that postioning becomes net long, we can get this party started. If we get net long, traders will start buying into declines, giving fuel for more southbound action. Price will collide with big daily uptrend line somewhere near 9910. We'll see what happens there.

Regards,
  • #26,752
  • Jan 6, 2011 2:09pm Jan 6, 2011 2:09pm
Quoting FX-Petra
A/U retail now stands @ 1.49 shorts for every 1 long.
Retail traders tend to be sheep, this data is often behind the curve and not reliable.

AUD has merely corrected to a more solid level after being pumped for the high yield during low liquidity season of Christmas/New Year (not to mention market having a temporary puppy love crush on the USD.)

Both the AUD and Kiwi are presently sitting on the 200 ema 4H charts. 200 ema = either gorilla or trampoline, we'll see how it plays out.
  • #26,753
  • Jan 6, 2011 2:15pm Jan 6, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting Jade Gate
Retail traders tend to be sheep, this data is often behind the curve and not reliable.

AUD has merely corrected to a more solid level after being pumped for the high yield during low liquidity season of Christmas/New Year (not to mention market having a temporary puppy love crush on the USD.)

Both the AUD and Kiwi are presently sitting on the 200 ema 4H charts. 200 ema = either gorilla or trampoline, we'll see how it plays out.
not reliable at all for scalping. However, for long term swing trading, I have found it useful. Not perfect, of course, but useful.

Regards,
  • #26,754
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:35pm Jan 6, 2011 3:35pm
bought @ 0.99457 stops @ 0.99111
  • #26,755
  • Jan 6, 2011 4:13pm Jan 6, 2011 4:13pm
My first post so please don't shoot me for my projection

Soon we will have a more synergistic global growth amongst the major continents and as such the demand for commodities will continue to outpace supply. Even if China slows growth, demand will still outweigh the supply. I believe we are at the cusp for a number of things now.

Buy AUS/USD now - target 2011 - 1.0500-1.0900
Buy Oil - target 2011/2012 - 100.00-140.00
Buy Gold - target 2011 - 1600-1700

Everyone is waiting to see these markets push down and substantially at that. I couldn't disagree more but thats only my analysis.

Nice to be here.

Cheers
  • #26,756
  • Jan 6, 2011 4:39pm Jan 6, 2011 4:39pm
Quoting SpartanTrade
My first post so please don't shoot me for my projection

Soon we will have a more synergistic global growth amongst the major continents and as such the demand for commodities will continue to outpace supply. Even if China slows growth, demand will still outweigh the supply. I believe we are at the cusp for a number of things now.

Buy AUS/USD now - target 2011 -...
Hi SpartanTrade,
same view apart from gold, I see gold at least as a temporary bubble, agricultural's my favorite
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,757
  • Jan 6, 2011 4:54pm Jan 6, 2011 4:54pm
Bought AUS again at 99.32. First target 1.02 and a nice carry trade in the meantime
  • #26,758
  • Jan 6, 2011 5:10pm Jan 6, 2011 5:10pm
Looks like all forex in stand by. No real direction yet. Almost all pairs in vibration around key levels. Every move in a direction find opposite réaction. That was The first week of The year. Maybe avorter week like this could happen. Which pair Will lead The move? The biggest one or The smallers Will give The first earthquake for The whole forex? Since my last trade in aussie, i entered and could get only very few opportunities with small profits, Then i prefer to wait until forex gives the start signal for The year.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #26,759
  • Jan 6, 2011 9:21pm Jan 6, 2011 9:21pm
Interest cost in this pair is outrageous....I really wanna be on the buy side only...I'll go long if .9919 supported again
  • #26,760
  • Jan 6, 2011 9:50pm Jan 6, 2011 9:50pm
I can't wait ... bought 2 lots avg .9931
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