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NZD/USD

  • #141
  • Dec 22, 2010 6:10pm Dec 22, 2010 6:10pm
Bad GDP numbers this morning just adding to the ordinary fundamentals coming out of New Zealand, the clocks ticking on this pair its only a matter of time before the 69 handle will be on the radar again my estimate middle of Q1 2011.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #142
  • Edited 9:18pm Dec 22, 2010 9:02pm | Edited 9:18pm
Quoting sweetaction
Bad GDP numbers this morning just adding to the ordinary fundamentals coming out of New Zealand, the clocks ticking on this pair its only a matter of time before the 69 handle will be on the radar again my estimate middle of Q1 2011.

Simon
Today I just convinced that Kiwi is going down.I'll be bearish at least for 25 to 32 weeks.

69 is in sight as long as Euro case persists(which seems to be) and stocks heading to south plus gold weakening due to dollar strength.

I think all ducks are lined up and it is going to be like that.
  • #143
  • Dec 23, 2010 1:42am Dec 23, 2010 1:42am
Quoting sweetaction
Bad GDP numbers this morning just adding to the ordinary fundamentals coming out of New Zealand, the clocks ticking on this pair its only a matter of time before the 69 handle will be on the radar again my estimate middle of Q1 2011.

Simon
If euro is bottoming out than those bad numbers will be forgotten,I am afraid that my short position will be destroyed,but technicals are still bearish.
  • #144
  • Dec 27, 2010 1:23am Dec 27, 2010 1:23am
Quoting pangro
Good morning

I am short with 1/2 position at 0,74500 during asian session.Falling 200 ma on hourly chart indicates that sellers are temporarily in control.A bit skeptical about this position because eurusd is quite oversold,but was bid up strong during asian session usually bad sign for euro.
Good morning all

Took another 1/2 position at 0,74900.Do not feel good about this position because aud is completely different story,not to mention tired bears on eurusd.
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  • #145
  • Dec 27, 2010 3:57pm Dec 27, 2010 3:57pm
Quoting pangro
If euro is bottoming out than those bad numbers will be forgotten,I am afraid that my short position will be destroyed,but technicals are still bearish.
Euro is bouncing up cause of no liquidity in my opinion when the big dogs return from holidays, overstretched banks, countries etc etc will be just another reason to keep selling. For me its not about selling euro its about finding a reason to buy it.

Anyway back to NZD, its not just one bad GDP number if like me you follow the data and trade long term according to the data and the technicals you would know that for the past few months good news and New Zealand haven't exactly been good friends, I said a few posts back that this thing would bounce to 7450/7500 and so far this is prooving correct, could it overshoot while we bask in illiquid markets absolutely it could. I cant see anything positive for the NZD, the bull run is over until the data and the market suggests it isnt.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #146
  • Dec 27, 2010 4:21pm Dec 27, 2010 4:21pm
we just had another big aftershock in christchurch which has affected a lot of retailers as shops have had to shut up in the peak season which wont help q4 retail sales and gdp, however on the flip side there has been a bit of media coverage about food prices going through the roof which will prop up exporters.. the kiwi wont fall too far untill the Aussie falls out of favor with investors imo
  • #147
  • Edited 5:20pm Dec 27, 2010 4:33pm | Edited 5:20pm
Quoting sweetaction
Euro is bouncing up cause of no liquidity in my opinion when the big dogs return from holidays, overstretched banks, countries etc etc will be just another reason to keep selling. For me its not about selling euro its about finding a reason to buy it.

Anyway back to NZD, its not just one bad GDP number if like me you follow the data and trade long term according to the data and the technicals you would know that for the past few months good news and New Zealand haven't exactly been good friends, I said a few posts back that this thing would bounce...
Simon is right! in my opinion kiwi is gathering momentum for another round of downward move.GDP was really beyond market expectations thought it already priced for a bullish run but as it turned out totally is going to disappoints investors.They are yet to come, big players are off now just some serious moves expected in second week of Jan.2011.

Retail sales data was terrible even rigidity appears on boxing also day down almost 7% comparing last year.consumer index down just squeezing GDP more and I think negativity are yet to pileup next quarter too.

I would also expect a bit downward pressure on export data due to currency appreciation versus USD throughout last quarter which could cap export value to other major trade partners apart Australia like China either.

Government been also demonstrate some sign of budget cautious which means they are going to cut off deficit so government spending expected to be down in next year thought.

to short the long story, I lost my faith on NZD vs USD at least because:

 

  1. GDP likely to continue shrinking still room to go down all the way around -1.00 I guess.
  2. Interest rates(OCR) looks like to be on pause for a while
  3. Consumer expectations looks negative in mid term


Plus external factors which seems headwinds kiwi prevents pushing up:

 

  1. Euro debt crisis still need time to settle
  2. China interest rate hike looks another round of three still remains upon specially first half of 2011. this will have indirect impact on kiwi through its major partner (Aussie) and obviously direct hit as a multiple effect.
  3. State's GDP expanding likely put US dollar on spotlight for a while.


In my opinion we should watch out kiwi's GDP once it began to show some sings of tendency to northern territory (expansion) as long as US reached to its limits again in the future then again I could say kiwi has some appetite to be treated around 0.8 cents level.

P.S: You might want to take look at some these analysis which gives you better imagine about what I say at least about short term:

 

  1. Speculators trim dollar shorts in latest week -CFTC
  2. TREASURIES-Debt rallies after strong two-year auction
  3. Euro edges higher, but downtrend set to resume

  • #148
  • Dec 28, 2010 5:59am Dec 28, 2010 5:59am
Hi all

Yes, this week could be fakeout to the upside but for now i am getting hammered with my short position.
  • #149
  • Jan 1, 2011 2:37pm Jan 1, 2011 2:37pm
Just my thoughts.
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Never underestimate an idiot.
  • #150
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:13pm Jan 5, 2011 4:13pm
Quoting pangro
Good morning all

Took another 1/2 position at 0,74900.Do not feel good about this position because aud is completely different story,not to mention tired bears on eurusd.
Hi all

I have decided to close this position ,market gave me a chance to get away without huge loss.Nzdusd in the support area i am thinking to switch to the long side.
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  • #151
  • Jan 5, 2011 5:47pm Jan 5, 2011 5:47pm
Kiwi may be a good buy around here. May benefit either way whether the Aussie data is good or bad.
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  • #152
  • Jan 6, 2011 1:32am Jan 6, 2011 1:32am
Quoting pangro
Hi all

I have decided to close this position ,market gave me a chance to get away without huge loss.Nzdusd in the support area i am thinking to switch to the long side.
Kiwi reversed but this won't last long I think it hasn't bottomed yet.this short live bulish run probably ends around 7630 and would turn around again heading for the bottom which is above 7500 area more specifically between 7530 to 7500.
  • #153
  • Jan 6, 2011 1:50am Jan 6, 2011 1:50am
Quoting Jade Gate
Kiwi may be a good buy around here. May benefit either way whether the Aussie data is good or bad.
i'm looking for 7500 area to jump in a long, if there are no big movement reasons i think we can expect a nice retrace from there on.

good luck
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consistency wins
  • #154
  • Jan 6, 2011 1:50am Jan 6, 2011 1:50am
Quoting eximir
Kiwi reversed but this won't last long I think it hasn't bottomed yet.this short live bulish run probably ends around 7630 and would turn around again heading for the bottom which is above 7500 area more specifically between 7530 to 7500.
I think so too.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #155
  • Jan 6, 2011 2:26am Jan 6, 2011 2:26am
Morning all,

Pending long order 0.7487 SL 0.7463 TP 0.777 level. If so, long also on aussie. USD/CAD could present an opportunity.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #156
  • Jan 7, 2011 12:05am Jan 7, 2011 12:05am
Quoting eximir
Kiwi reversed but this won't last long I think it hasn't bottomed yet.this short live bulish run probably ends around 7630 and would turn around again heading for the bottom which is above 7500 area more specifically between 7530 to 7500.
I should elevate bullish rebound targets from 7630 to 7690 it seems we are going to have a surprising London session following that NY too.

I really don't think USD index could hold current level in short term like next week.
  • #157
  • Jan 10, 2011 11:38am Jan 10, 2011 11:38am
Long (.75911).....closed @ (.76337).....42.6 pips


  • #158
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:59pm Jan 10, 2011 4:59pm
Tomorrow(Jan.11) Kiwi along with all growth linked counterparts will blow up.
I'm expecting a short break in Tokyo session but party is going to be started right after PIIGS bond auction.

China already promised buy some so surely auction will be successful.
Market cheer up to be expected mid London session and through out the New York session too.

Target range as I said earlier: 7690-7707 then again bears are going to steer till end of January.
  • #159
  • Jan 13, 2011 12:56pm Jan 13, 2011 12:56pm
Quoting eximir
Tomorrow(Jan.11) Kiwi along with all growth linked counterparts will blow up.
I'm expecting a short break in Tokyo session but party is going to be started right after PIIGS bond auction.

China already promised buy some so surely auction will be successful.
Market cheer up to be expected mid London session and through out the New York session too.

Target range as I said earlier: 7690-7707 then again bears are going to steer till end of January.
OK now we are getting ready for another downside throughout next week all the way down to 7470-60.this is good opportunity to short Kiwi.
  • #160
  • Feb 2, 2011 1:51pm Feb 2, 2011 1:51pm
anyone trading around unemployment numbers in 2 hours?
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