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AUD/USD

  • #26,621
  • Jan 5, 2011 6:44am Jan 5, 2011 6:44am
K.I.S.S = Keep It Simple Stupid

Path of least resistance is the path to 0.8600-0.8900
Pure & simple technical criteria evaluated on a daily time-frame showing a clear path to 0.9200, then 0.8900 to 0.8600.
  • #26,622
  • Jan 5, 2011 6:44am Jan 5, 2011 6:44am
Quoting Alki
Thank you. That was my first real win trade in AUD/USD for a total of 480 pips in 3 lots and with a drawdown of a total of 38 pips for the all 3 lots. I have to say that i entered that trade for more learning than searching for profit.

Hope i answered you question.
So it was just luck? I just noticed the pair was at the top of the channel where the hourly spike finished and so was a good place to short, counter trend. Not my kind of trade, but that doen't mean anything. . I have to say, you are honest.
Gone to a better place
  • #26,623
  • Jan 5, 2011 6:45am Jan 5, 2011 6:45am
Quoting VennD
...Sell AU.
Venn, I notice this pair is at parity. Are we expecting a bounce here or should we just sell?
Gone to a better place
  • #26,624
  • Edited 7:02am Jan 5, 2011 6:48am | Edited 7:02am
9984 could be the bottom for this drop?...

Reasons:
-wave 4 within wave 3 ended here, and we are in a wave 4 or A of higher degree which usually touches the 4th wave of minor degree,
-38.2% fibo retracement of the big rise since Nov 1,
-channel joining bottoms of Dec 8 and Dec 16 passes here.

Another possible levels could be 9965 or 9938 IMHO...

Also, if we go below 9965 (top of possible wave 1), this would mean that this is not a wave 4 but an A or a 1 down, and then, the top is in...

Comments ultra-welcome.
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #26,625
  • Jan 5, 2011 6:50am Jan 5, 2011 6:50am
This pair still owes at least 3-4 drops in excess of 300 pips.

With that in mind, even if we get 3 drops of over 200 pips...that takes us closer to the initial target of 0.9200, before the drops to 0.8900-0.8600

Hedgies have left, Insti's have left...matter of time before Mr Joe Public notices what is happening!
  • #26,626
  • Jan 5, 2011 6:54am Jan 5, 2011 6:54am
Quoting smikester
So it was just luck? I just noticed the pair was at the top of the channel where the hourly spike finished and so was a good place to short, counter trend. Not my kind of trade, but that doen't mean anything. . I have to say, you are honest.
Who said it was luck? No chance in forex. Who believes on chance in forex means that he has a big lack of knowledge of technical analysis. I invite you to read the entire post. I explained with many details all my plan and how to catch a turning point of a trend with reasons of every step.

Please feel free to ask if some points are not clear, since we are here to discuss trading.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #26,627
  • Jan 5, 2011 6:58am Jan 5, 2011 6:58am
20m from now....ADP Employment change / Medium Impact / Current 93k / Forecast 100k

2hrs from now....ISM Non-Manufacturing / Medium Impact / Current 55.0 / Forecast 55.6

2hrs from now .....EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change / Low Impact / -1,3M / Forecast Not Available
  • #26,628
  • Jan 5, 2011 7:01am Jan 5, 2011 7:01am
won't break 9980 i think..
Old Habits Die Hard.
  • #26,629
  • Jan 5, 2011 7:03am Jan 5, 2011 7:03am
Quoting mrbandwidth
9984 could be the bottom for this drop?...

Reasons:
-wave 4 within wave 3 ended here, and we are in a wave 4 or A of higher degree which usually touches the 4th wave of minor degree,
-38.2% fibo retracement of the big rise since Nov 1,
-channel joining bottoms of Dec 8 and Dec 16 passes here.

Another possible levels could be 9965 or 9938 IMHO...

Also, if we go below 9965 (top of possible wave 1), this would mean that this is not a wave 4 but an A or a 1 down, and then, the top is in...

Comments ultra-welcome.
This is a great post - for those looking to manage any open positions this type of analysis is well worth looking at. It may not happen but it's worth noting the fantastic analysis completed by the poster.
  • #26,630
  • Jan 5, 2011 7:10am Jan 5, 2011 7:10am
Quoting smikester
Venn, I notice this pair is at parity. Are we expecting a bounce here or should we just sell?
sorry late reply...so far fundamentals override technicals ...my humble opinion..
  • #26,631
  • Jan 5, 2011 7:19am Jan 5, 2011 7:19am
Just closed my short.... will be side-seeing this pair....
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #26,632
  • Jan 5, 2011 7:22am Jan 5, 2011 7:22am
Quoting bskwak1124
Just closed my short.... will be side-seeing this pair....
Job numbers out and a huge increase in ADP data Total Private up nearly 300K.
That should be good news for US economy - which should mean increase in US $$. Or it could mean good for US equities which means increase in AUD $$, as risk is in play.
I love FX Trading!!
  • #26,633
  • Jan 5, 2011 7:27am Jan 5, 2011 7:27am
ADP Employment Change ...93k -----> Actual 297k


SELL !!
  • #26,634
  • Jan 5, 2011 7:37am Jan 5, 2011 7:37am
i'm long again, let's see what 16h brings us next
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.jpg Size: 97 KB
Old Habits Die Hard.
  • #26,635
  • Jan 5, 2011 7:38am Jan 5, 2011 7:38am
don't be afraid abt tht double / triple supports/trendlines,etc... they're useless when countering the fundamentals.

it may slow down the moves.... waitn 4 potential buyers 2b slaughtered. let them be.
  • #26,636
  • Jan 5, 2011 7:50am Jan 5, 2011 7:50am
Now only 1.79 shorts for every 1 long. Short postioning no longer extreme. I guess many have been stopped out. Likely to still see further declinces, but slower and less pronounced. As ratio nears 1 to 1 we will proabably see range trading conditions. Good trades to all....


Regards,
  • #26,637
  • Jan 5, 2011 7:53am Jan 5, 2011 7:53am
just pointin at the 61 fibo at 9970
Old Habits Die Hard.
  • #26,638
  • Jan 5, 2011 7:53am Jan 5, 2011 7:53am
Quoting FX-Petra
Now only 1.79 shorts for every 1 long. Short postioning no longer extreme. I guess many have been stopped out. Likely to still see further declinces, but slower and less pronounced. As ratio nears 1 to 1 we will proabably see range trading conditions. Good trades to all....


Regards,
Thank you for the updates, Fx-Petra. Thank u once again..regards !
  • #26,639
  • Jan 5, 2011 8:04am Jan 5, 2011 8:04am
i still remember...when she was unstoppable on the upmoves....well !...can she also do the same on the dwnmoves ? u believe no bcoz there're...bla...bla...this...and bla...bla...that ?

dont u think in those days when she goes up.... all those bla...bla....was not present ?
  • #26,640
  • Jan 5, 2011 8:05am Jan 5, 2011 8:05am
Quoting Shaggy_rock
i'm long again, let's see what 16h brings us next

Think you might have your fibs upside down there cobber?
Gone to a better place
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