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  • #341
  • Edited 4:36am Feb 15, 2006 4:21am | Edited 4:36am
Current open is @ 1.7356. Current price is @ 1.7345.

To buy GBP prices would need to be above current open by at least 30 pips -- 1.7386 -- for a 50% probability that they would not come back.

Price would need to be at least 40 pips above current open -- 1.7396 -- for a better than 65% probability that they would not come back.

Current median range is 116 pips.
Current range is 46 pips.

There is a 46.7% probability that the current range will not meet the median range, and there is a 53.3% probability that the current range will meet the median range.

There is currently no momentum or speed.

The 50% retracement rule does not apply since the current range is less than 60 pips.

In conclusion, there is nothing to do now according to the Vegas rules while prices are between 1.7327 & 1.7385.

This is my first attempt to interpret this. If anyone else has a different view please correct me.
  • #342
  • Feb 15, 2006 4:23am Feb 15, 2006 4:23am
Quoting lambrechtj
Looks like everything was there and ready for a good trade, based on the Vegas rules. Its just the momemtum died off right at or after the 50%, kaput! boat engine died now just floating around, need a pair of and Oars. Perhaps the dealers now know the Vegas method, just joking.

It would be nice if some of the more experienced traders could put some insight in, it aint going anywhere anyway for now, perhaps the london open will kick start it. We have a new day so we have to take new measurerments for the 30 pip move from the open anyway, the stuff for the good trade was based on yesterdays open. I'm going to get some shut eye have to get up for work tommorow. I'm not in at this time.
Ok ... I went back and read the doc again. Looks to me you guys are correct. The candle is touching the 3rd ... a new low was made .... the price then pulled away from the new low (Concept 2) ... now we just have to see what marble was selected. I stand corrected once again ....
If it is not broken, fix it until it is!
  • #343
  • Feb 15, 2006 6:14am Feb 15, 2006 6:14am
Quoting Anpar
Zenophyte, looks like you and I are on the same wave length, I took this trade @ 204.01, just one pip over the 50 fib. Strong move down, followed by momentum off the low, the wick is nice and long. The 1-hour formed a PIN bar as well off the SHI Channel and volume remained strong. Last but not least, 50% was touch and now surpassed.


Going to monitor this one close, since it's not part of the Vegas's recommended pairs.
In case anyone was wondering, I was referring to the GBP/JPY pair.

Thanks,
  • #344
  • Feb 15, 2006 6:24am Feb 15, 2006 6:24am
Quoting lambrechtj
Looks like everything was there and ready for a good trade, based on the Vegas rules. Its just the momemtum died off right at or after the 50%, kaput! boat engine died now just floating around, need a pair of and Oars. Perhaps the dealers now know the Vegas method, just joking.
Lambrechtj, I'm no expert, but I think the key here is that momemtum did occur at the bounce, regardless if it stalled at the 50%. All three rules were met and IMHO the trade should have been taken.

We have to keep in mind these are not day trades. If we think back to Vegas's first GBP/USD trade he demostrated here at FF he remained in that trade for well over a week. As Dialist said, you need to reach in that bag and grab that marble.
  • #345
  • Feb 15, 2006 7:26am Feb 15, 2006 7:26am
Quoting johannbok
First of all I want to thank vegas for everything he has offered to the forum, but I have a question to everyone. Why enter the trade right now when bernake is going to talk tomorrow morning us time. What he says will move the market one way or the other, probably 100 pips or so. So I am going to wait for his speech tomorrow, which I believe will be bullish for the $ which would make both the swiss trade and the pound trade a bad move at this time. I just want to know what everyone's thought on this is.

Lately it seems the news has moved the market more than anything else, then the market seems to rebound from it which has made it hard to do tech analysis in my humble opinion. Again I would like anyones thoughts and strategies during these times.

Also, since the beginning of the year bad news seems to effect the $ more than good news does, from my point of view anyway.
I didnt realize this. However, I just went long on cable.
  • #346
  • Feb 15, 2006 7:28am Feb 15, 2006 7:28am
Quoting Neilg36
Gm everyone,

With reference to going long on cable at the mo..Vegas says that if the 50% retracement area is taken out violently then there is a better chance of there being a reversal day.

Would you say that this happened in this case? The 50% area was 'nudged' but not taken out with any follow through/conviction.

Not trying to sound the the expert LOL..just my 2 cents. Would obviously welcome others comments on this.
I agree. Thas why I held off going long on cable for a while. Just entered it now.
  • #347
  • Feb 15, 2006 8:26am Feb 15, 2006 8:26am
Everyone,

All of you who trade VWB should now be long Cable from much lower leverls. Stops should be moved up to make this a breakeven trade at worst.

I will be back later with my thoughts and comments regarding this trade.
vegas
  • #348
  • Feb 15, 2006 8:28am Feb 15, 2006 8:28am
Quoting Playmaker
Hello johannbok, I understand your thoughts exactly and you may be right in the end. Been there done that. But your answer is in the bag of marbles, we don't care about all that we can't control or what everyone says, does or where price goes we can only go by our method and the trade set ups that says the probabilities of the method is in our favor in the long run. Maybe not this trade maybe not the next but in the long run I will win. The bag is weighted in my favor. This post drove it home for me.
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...&postcount=279


Thanks,



Matt
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon14.gif
It looks like it was the correct marble that came out of the bag. But it was all news driven both with the weaker tics data and also a bullish bank of england forecast that came out at 3:30 Mountain time. So I wonder if the Vegas system can predict news events based on the technical analysis theory, or is it just like you say a probabilities theory. Now if the news would have been bad for the pound it would have moved the opposite way.

So should we use the Vegas tools for an entry point and wait for the news, then enter if it confirms so we can really have a high probability for the right color marble or don't enter if the news denies the Vegas theory.

To me we should use every tool at our disposal, but am I over thinking things?

Thanks,
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...cons/icon6.gif
Jace
  • #349
  • Feb 15, 2006 8:36am Feb 15, 2006 8:36am
Quoting johannbok
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon14.gif
It looks like it was the correct marble that came out of the bag. But it was all news driven both with the weaker tics data and also a bullish bank of england forecast that came out at 3:30 Mountain time. So I wonder if the Vegas system can predict news events based on the technical analysis theory, or is it just like you say a probabilities theory. Now if the news would have been bad for the pound it would have moved the opposite way.

So should we use the Vegas tools for an entry point and wait for the news, then enter if it confirms so we can really have a high probability for the right color marble or don't enter if the news denies the Vegas theory.

To me we should use every tool at our disposal, but am I over thinking things?

Thanks,
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...cons/icon6.gif
Jace
Jace,
Your comments remind me of all the locals who used to stand next to me in the pits and who expressed the exact same thing as you. Their argument was what I call the "What if ..." theory.

What if the low had been taken out? What if the news had been bad? What if the news had been really bad? What if, what if what if?

I learned very early on, that price action takes care of everything.
vegas
  • #350
  • Feb 15, 2006 8:47am Feb 15, 2006 8:47am
Quoting vegas
Jace,
Your comments remind me of all the locals who used to stand next to me in the pits and who expressed the exact same thing as you. Their argument was what I call the "What if ..." theory.

What if the low had been taken out? What if the news had been bad? What if the news had been really bad? What if, what if what if?

I learned very early on, that price action takes care of everything.
Vegas you are a great teacher and I appreciate your comments, they are very humbling at times but have learned a ton from you.

Again thanks for everything and your comment hit home. My mom always said I was a what if kid so you brought back some fond memories with that statement

Jace
  • #351
  • Feb 15, 2006 8:55am Feb 15, 2006 8:55am
Quoting johannbok
First of all I want to thank vegas for everything he has offered to the forum, but I have a question to everyone. Why enter the trade right now when bernake is going to talk tomorrow morning us time. What he says will move the market one way or the other, probably 100 pips or so. So I am going to wait for his speech tomorrow, which I believe will be bullish for the $ which would make both the swiss trade and the pound trade a bad move at this time. I just want to know what everyone's thought on this is.
This is a great point; I guess from my standpoint, it's a matter of learning the rules of the system as best I can, without any outside influences. The last three VWB trades, the GBP/USD Jan 25th short trade, I think the Feb 8 usd/jpy short trade and the Feb 9/10 GPB/USD long trade were all effected by the news or strange market conditions.

The first GPB/USD trade, reversed by over 115 pips and some people got stopped out because they moved their stops to BE, but those who were patient quickly saw how fast the market ate the news and prices quickly rebounded and went on a almost 500 - 600 pip move in 9 days.

The USD/JPY trade is now at the tunnel, but one probably could have taken half of his/her position off on the 10th for a good 200 pips.

Last but not least the famous, I don't know what the hell just happened GPB/USD Feb 9/10th trade again all three rules were met, we entered the trade, it quickly went to the tunnel, some of people took half of their position off near the tunnel, which again resulted in almost 200 pips, with the other half in most cases being stopped out at breakeven.

As you can see with three trades in a matter of 2 weeks one could have made close to 900 pips or at worst, walked away at breakeven.

Is there a possibility I may lose all 89 pips on this current GPB/USD trade because of news, yes there is, but at the end of the day, it's still only one marble.
  • #352
  • Feb 15, 2006 9:15am Feb 15, 2006 9:15am
Quoting vegas
Jace,
Your comments remind me of all the locals who used to stand next to me in the pits and who expressed the exact same thing as you. Their argument was what I call the "What if ..." theory.

What if the low had been taken out? What if the news had been bad? What if the news had been really bad? What if, what if what if?

I learned very early on, that price action takes care of everything.
Sorry folks

I can't let this pass.

As my old father used to say to me....

"IF, your aunt had balls, she'd be your uncle"

Quinn
I started out with nothing, and I've got most of it left!
  • #353
  • Feb 15, 2006 9:23am Feb 15, 2006 9:23am
Quoting quinn
Sorry folks

I can't let this pass.

As my old father used to say to me....

"IF, your aunt had balls, she'd be your uncle"

Quinn
That is a great line, and Anpar thanks for your great response this is what I love about this forum, people helping people without attacks but with respect and kindness, Thank you all

Jace
  • #354
  • Feb 15, 2006 10:25am Feb 15, 2006 10:25am
Quoting Playmaker
Hello johannbok, I understand your thoughts exactly and you may be right in the end. Been there done that. But your answer is in the bag of marbles, we don't care about all that we can't control or what everyone says, does or where price goes we can only go by our method and the trade set ups that says the probabilities of the method is in our favor in the long run. Maybe not this trade maybe not the next but in the long run I will win. The bag is weighted in my favor. This post drove it home for me.
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...&postcount=279


Thanks,



Matt
What does make you think that the bag (Vegas' VWB) is weighted on your favor? It might be weighted on HIS favor because he has been mastering the system for a long time and his results might have been positive, but until YOU get the same positive results on the long run, your bag is hardly weighted at all for the time being.
  • #355
  • Feb 15, 2006 11:03am Feb 15, 2006 11:03am
Quoting WTB
What does make you think that the bag (Vegas' VWB) is weighted on your favor? It might be weighted on HIS favor because he has been mastering the system for a long time and his results might have been positive, but until YOU get the same positive results on the long run, your bag is hardly weighted at all for the time being.
You are correct sorry for the verbage error. Should have said his method is weighted in our favor. But the point I was making is sticking to the method and not to base the trades off of outside the method information.
Thanks WTB,

later,
matt
  • #356
  • Feb 15, 2006 11:25am Feb 15, 2006 11:25am
Vegas, one question regarding this last GBP long trade:

I dont quite see any candle reversal formation on my daily chart. In a previous post, you said that reaching the 3rd fib band and fulfilling the "3 concepts" wasnt enough: you were also required to see a reversal candle formation on the daily chart.

What did I miss?
  • #357
  • Feb 15, 2006 11:47am Feb 15, 2006 11:47am
Quoting vegas
Jace,
Your comments remind me of all the locals who used to stand next to me in the pits and who expressed the exact same thing as you. Their argument was what I call the "What if ..." theory.

What if the low had been taken out? What if the news had been bad? What if the news had been really bad? What if, what if what if?

I learned very early on, that price action takes care of everything.
Too good Vegas!!


Everyone,
Print the image below in reverse.
Glue it to your forehead.
Look in mirror frequently.


Dial

- All marbles are the right marble. -
Attached Image
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #358
  • Feb 15, 2006 11:56am Feb 15, 2006 11:56am
Hi Vegas, my Q is hopefully in context to the VWB model though it pertains to the 55 moving average that are employed while looking at the 4hr method since i read that often times you reference the 4 hr candles while entering/exiting a trade. You have chosen an EXPONENTIAL MA at CLOSE, as part of the "Tunnel" on the Daily, and I am wondering if you have thought of using the same settings EMA on CLOSE on the 55ma on 4hr chart instead of the default settings of SMA on HL/2(Median) ?? A quick cursory look back several months seems to show there are many more "tags" of the currency when using the EMA on the 55 (Close or Median).

Your time and insights, as always, are greaty appreciated.
Thom
  • #359
  • Feb 15, 2006 12:33pm Feb 15, 2006 12:33pm
Quoting vegas
Everyone,

All of you who trade VWB should now be long Cable from much lower leverls. Stops should be moved up to make this a breakeven trade at worst.

I will be back later with my thoughts and comments regarding this trade.
were you up at 2 a/m watching this? May I ask what price you entered at?

I wish sleeping at that time so missed the initial break.
  • #360
  • Feb 15, 2006 1:21pm Feb 15, 2006 1:21pm
ouch
Tightened my stop before going to bed for the night and lost out on a 76 pip gain(trailing stop I set) by getting stoped 2 pips below my stoop before it reversed.
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