Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

Saw it the first time when Xt mentioned it. Been thinking about it...seeing it this second time has brought some more clarity. It is about controlling risk (that I know), but the shift in thinking about having to be right to make money is a little different. Worth it for sure.

Thanks to you and Xt,

FX4Newbies

I was taught that the great hitters in baseball batted on average somewhere around .350 35% more or less, meaning they failed about 2/3's the time they stepped to the plate. Honored and adored they didn't even bat 50%.

I was told to figure out a way to be profitable when I only trade winners to losers 1:3

In the earlier scenario I laid out for Big Pippin, the case was made for a long trade like he had posted, a little different criteria but valid imho. I could have just as well made a case and framed a continuation trade short off the Fib reject and retest of the broken support now turned resistance.

Which one is right which one was wrong, doesn't matter. You do your homework and learn the tools of your trade, you put them to use, frame a trade and make a case for putting your hard earned money on the line.

Great! Now do you close your eyes and hope everything turns out like you planned? The markets are dynamic ever changing. Even though we look at the chart and determine there's a better chance that price will go here instead of there, the next failed follow through or price falling back and taking out some support/resistance level changes the read. So no matter how great the setup looks, price has to play it's part and follow the plan. When it stops following, you have decisions to make, and being married to your preconceived bias will only take you down to dark and scary places.

You enter a trade and get stopped out at break even, So What! Your wrong and it cost you nothing????? Please!

There's a lot of bad things that can happen to you when you're in a trade, minimizing and managing risk is paramount. Retraining my brain to think in terms of survival/risk management/profitability above ego - was the hardest nut to crack.

Forget all the profound rules of trading taught since time began, handed down by the masters. Just concentrate on trading only A setups, and put yourself into a positive, or at minimum break-even position as quickly as possible. Leave some to make the target if price will comply and cash in some for your milk money. Make that green and put it away, don't give it back because you know you're "right". Just take it over and over again, and quit cryin' when price stops your remainder out in profit.

If you want to tweak and optimize your trading for greater profitabily, that's great, but do it after you've hammered down the basics of just being profitable.

Trading is more an Art then a Science. I think that most traders are over-complicating it, (i am probably in this bunch.) Find proper pivot point, draw a pitchfork that is in tune with the chart, wait for resistance or support to hold, do your trade, with the lowest reasonable risk, head for a realistic target. Have sound money management. (This part is for me) That should be it! If your afraid to share your trade idea over here or you conjoint or your trading journal, that was probably a bad trade that shouldn't have been taken in the first place.

Pitchfork are a part of Harmonic Trading, I encourage everybody studying it to also study Fibonacci ratios, Elliot waves (Doesn't hurt) , and Harmonic patterns. The rest will come together over time.

The best possible tools are necessary. Having a good data feed is of the utmost importance, i realized that the hard way, i got negatively slipped for 16 pips today while trying to close a trade i tought at break-even on Alpari-uk. It pi..ed me off badly. And how can you draw good forks when your platform/broker is missing several hour on friday closing and sunday opening, it causes distortion to the chart.

Can any pro trader can refer what platform is the best for them, and not too expensive, or is there any MT4 feed that is acceptable? And at what time should the friday be closing and the sunday open in order too have proper sub daily chart? And daily chart, shall it have a sunday candle? If any pro forker can respond to that i would appreciate very much.

Thanks Auxesis for those gems so well put. The change in the read should have a corresponding, unhindered change in the original decision. This will be my self-mentoring exercise for January. "Retraining my brain to think in terms of survival/risk management/profitability above ego - was the hardest nut to crack." ...thanks for that and it seems to be a nut for sure...but that nut is not too hard to crack. That's the good news. I guess to compensate for these times, I have worked on having as sharp of an entry as possible so as to minimize the probability of losses. Even when I am wrong, the market seems to turn just where I got in. Sometimes, I am able to change the mind, but would like to see it become a more "natural" trading response: more second nature. "Turning the mind about.." as Andrews put it.

Will be working on this for sure. Gotta break through this "mental ceiling" so I can stand on it. It will then become the floor for the next level of trading. Looking forward to it .

Thanks again,

FX4Newbies

P.S. Profitability is there...I just want to eliminate some kinks. A little tweak can do wonders for an equity curve. The sky is not even the limit then.

good input from UML

ur data are little bit different than me. So confusing. But yet it is a nice down fork. I have a something similar but im still learning how to trade with pitchfork.

gbp have a decent stop but i was sleeping, the chf is just a short now. Lets see how market going to unfold. It used cash stop because i can afford to put stop above swing high. also JPY setting up for something

For what's it worth, price have hit my BIG downward U-MLH So i took a short.

I move my stop above yesterday high, and above the gartley pattern prz.

Aud/usd is the only pair on my screen that seems to have the best trend. Will probably go long soon and have a 100 pip stop.

Just a suggestion big p - if you can't find validation on one timeframe try going up in size.....

beeb

ps look at the kiwi daily from mar 09 lows on mod schiff for example....

Hi orbital look at this zone .Price is not able to cross.It would be intersting to watch EU in this quarter. Let us see how it will unfold.

Regards,
TAQ

Beeb, is that a weekly?..looks like it, but I cant seem to match yours. But here is what my 5yr looks like.

Eur 1h short term buying opp?

big p - as it says in the post - "kiwi daily"...btw it's cash fx not futures

beeb

240 - count still valid - excellant short on 20 minute

ah my bad.

Back from work... involuntarily closed trade for 77 pips @ 3305, Came up to 3434 during the day, 1 pip away from my stop!!! Got lucky on this one.

Good trade WT, let's celebrate! I love this fork.

Not disagreeing with you here, pitchfork bounce correlated with that zone... there is A LOT, and i mean a boatload of sellers in that zone, right now im trying to figure out which fund it is thats holding those positions tightly.

Im expecting it to fall another 200 pips to the designated support zone with the black box but it should crash through that aswell since the only real support in my oppinion is the green box.

Giving you a Vouch btw, so far your charts and analysis have always been superb. And im not being biased here because our forks and analysis agree usually

Chf 4hr chart. shorted