james16 Chart Thread | Page 4220 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

Attachments: james16 Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

james16 Chart Thread

  • #84,381
  • Jan 3, 2011 7:51pm Jan 3, 2011 7:51pm
Hi Guys,

I started to read this great thread. Can you guys guide me if my analysis is correct.
This is daily Eur/Usd chart and I am looking some short setup confirmation at this resistance level.

Thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 22eurusddaily.GIF Size: 15 KB
  • #84,382
  • Jan 3, 2011 7:57pm Jan 3, 2011 7:57pm
Quoting 786 trading
Hi Guys,

I started to read this great thread. Can you guys guide me if my analysis is correct.
This is daily Eur/Usd chart and I am looking some short setup confirmation at this resistance level.

Thanks.
Welcome 786

For your first chart I love the simplicity.

Yes that type PPZ line would be a great area to watch for potential further information. Now having a target of the bottom of the box could be a good starting place, but just because we get some Price bar up there doesn't mean it will go to the bottom of the box. Since we are stuck in a range(the box) that is going to make price tend to move more choppy and could make reaching the bottom smoothly more difficult. For me it would be the greater the quality the PA at an area like this the greater the probability to get to that bottom of the box.

Now this box gives us further options. A break to the upside this area is likely to turn into support. A break to the down side the bottom is likely to turn into resistance.

Nice first chart

Mike
  • #84,383
  • Jan 3, 2011 8:43pm Jan 3, 2011 8:43pm
Quoting mbqb11
Welcome 786

For your first chart I love the simplicity.

Yes that type PPZ line would be a great area to watch for potential further information....
Thanks Mike for your kind reply.
Can you please explain in details, there is some confusion. Like you said 'Now having a target of the bottom of the box could be a good starting place, but just because we get some Price bar up there doesn't mean it will go to the bottom of the box. Since we are stuck in a range(the box)' what it means.

and you said 'Now this box gives us further options. A break to the upside this area is likely to turn into support. A break to the down side the bottom is likely to turn into resistance.' what it means?
Thanks again.
  • #84,384
  • Jan 3, 2011 9:23pm Jan 3, 2011 9:23pm
Based on current price action, the purple line is the first area price could reverse and re-test the top of the range. See the price flip at 1.3250?

I cannot show you what Mike is referring to in his second paragraph visually, so I will let him respond to that. I really should find software that allows me to draw on charts easily.

Scott

Quoting 786 trading
Thanks Mike for your kind reply.
Can you please explain in details, there is some confusion. Like you said 'Now having a target of the bottom of the box could be a good starting place, but just because we get some Price bar up there doesn't mean it will go to the bottom of the box. Since we are stuck in a range(the box)' what it means.

and you said 'Now this box gives us further options. A break to the upside this area is likely to turn into support. A break to the down side the bottom is likely to turn into resistance.' what it means?
Thanks...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd daily 1-3-2011.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #84,385
  • Jan 3, 2011 9:34pm Jan 3, 2011 9:34pm
Quoting 786 trading
Thanks Mike for your kind reply.
Can you please explain in details, there is some confusion. Like you said 'Now having a target of the bottom of the box could be a good starting place, but just because we get some Price bar up there doesn't mean it will go to the bottom of the box. Since we are stuck in a range(the box)' what it means.

and you said 'Now this box gives us further options. A break to the upside this area is likely to turn into support. A break to the down side the bottom is likely to turn into resistance.' what it means?
Thanks again....
Hey 786

What I was referring to is that we still want to analyze the trade potential once it forms. We will likely find other trouble areas in the way along the way. So depending on the trader/style one may think taking the bar to the bottom of the box is a bit optimistic(or not). My point was that this is the beginning of an analysis(potential areas) then we want to take the next step of where price is likely to go and how we the trader will react(if something meets our criteria).

As for my other part I drew an example of how price 'could' act if it breaks out. The orange line being a potential for how price may act if it can break outside of its "box"

Let me know if this makes sense
Mike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a2.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #84,386
  • Jan 3, 2011 9:35pm Jan 3, 2011 9:35pm
Quoting phpscott
Based on current price action, the purple line is the first area price could reverse and re-test the top of the range. See the price flip at 1.3250?

I cannot show you what Mike is referring to in his second paragraph visually, so I will let him respond to that. I really should find software that allows me to draw on charts easily.

Scott
Thanks Scott exactly!

Mike
  • #84,387
  • Jan 3, 2011 9:41pm Jan 3, 2011 9:41pm
Quoting joelcf
Just so we are clear - this pair has dropped a thousand pips in the last ten days, in a very low volume period, with no actual reason to reverse... and you want to go long.

With an arbitary tight stop to give a 'good' r:R.
I personally would not play this with such a tight stop, but it does look like a decent set up. My feed shows 4 days in a row with a close just over the BRN. Tells me this area showing some respect. I don't think its a trend changer but has a good shot at reaching his FTA.
  • #84,388
  • Jan 3, 2011 9:48pm Jan 3, 2011 9:48pm
do you think this one is in too much traffic?
Attached Image
  • #84,389
  • Jan 3, 2011 9:55pm Jan 3, 2011 9:55pm
Yes. In fact, the FTA is 1.3300.

Scott

Quoting spookie94
do you think this one is in too much traffic?
  • #84,390
  • Jan 3, 2011 10:06pm Jan 3, 2011 10:06pm
Quoting phpscott
Yes. In fact, the FTA is 1.3300.

Scott
Yes, 1.3300 looks like a better FTA. Thanks for the quick response.
  • #84,391
  • Jan 3, 2011 10:23pm Jan 3, 2011 10:23pm
Quoting spookie94
Yes, 1.3300 looks like a better FTA. Thanks for the quick response.
another reason not to take it, forgot this was a Sunday bar
Attached Image
  • #84,392
  • Jan 3, 2011 10:45pm Jan 3, 2011 10:45pm
Thanks all for your kind reply.
One general question:

Which metatrader platform should I use for charts analysis, I see IBFX is candles are different then others. I am using MB-trading and FXDD. Should I use Alpari?

I am always confused that if charts are different then they can change the priceaction analysis and can produce different decesion.
How you guys solve this problem?

Thanks.
  • #84,393
  • Jan 3, 2011 10:47pm Jan 3, 2011 10:47pm
Quoting 786 trading
Thanks all for your kind reply.
One general question:

Which metatrader platform should I use for charts analysis, I see IBFX is candles are different then others. I am using MB-trading and FXDD. Should I use Alpari?

I am always confused that if charts are different then they can change the priceaction analysis and can produce different decesion.
How you guys solve this problem?

Thanks.
Here is something I wrote up awhile ago

Q: How come my chart looks different then yours? I don't have that pinbar/Oustide Bar etc on my chart.

A: Since forex is NOT a centralized market, there is no set open and close within the market. Also the forex market is a 24 hour market. So what does this mean? Well a lot of brokers are located in certain timezones and simply decide to run their charts from that time zone.

This causes a discrepancy b/w when certain bars close. For example one broker may have a daily close at 5pm est, and the next broker will have a daily close at 6pm est. This will give the bars a different look. Price still does the SAME exact thing, but on the chart will have a different look. So on one broker chartiing you might have a Pinbar, and on the next you won't.

So what do we do about this? Well the general rule we go about around here is simply play things as you see them. If you have a pinbar, then play the pinbar, if you don't then don't. Some people choose to look at multiple broker feeds in order to get a better "view" on what price has done. Our broker is simply the box through which we view price. Price has done the same thing on every broker, it is simply how price is aggregated that we see the "price action" differently.



Mike



summary? Use whatever you are most comfortable with. I prefer a 5pm est close for my daily bars, but I also use 4 different brokers to get a different view for each 4hr. Almost none of my charting are the brokers I trade off and simply transfer my trading to my broker(since price is price)
  • #84,394
  • Edited Jan 4, 2011 12:26am Jan 3, 2011 11:43pm | Edited Jan 4, 2011 12:26am
I don't know why, but this month has been pretty amazing. the fact I only risked 0.5% on the irresistible trades makes me feel ok about the trades I have taken.

So much good PA in great areas, easy to read S&R....

keep it up everyone. I really hope you all have success in 2011, and if this is your first year in this thread, BELIEVE ME, it gets so much easier if you just keep at it for a little while I swear. You will have a solid amount of losing trades before you start to see, but the treasure of success is buried in failure
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #84,395
  • Jan 4, 2011 12:14am Jan 4, 2011 12:14am
nice breakout on daily gs. could run further now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gs.gif Size: 22 KB
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #84,396
  • Edited 12:39am Jan 4, 2011 12:26am | Edited 12:39am
1. How much data should I be looking at when drawing DAILY ppz, 3/4/6 months?
2. still waiting for book recommendations (please see my previous post)
  • #84,397
  • Jan 4, 2011 12:40am Jan 4, 2011 12:40am
Quoting joelcf
Just so we are clear - this pair has dropped a thousand pips in the last ten days, in a very low volume period, with no actual reason to reverse... and you want to go long.
With an arbitary tight stop to give a 'good' r:R.
I am very glad to have your opinion on my post.
Yes, I want to go long, because I trade what i see and what i believe. I created a set of rules for myself based on what is taught in this great PA thread.

The PB is at swing low - what was the reason to get there i don't care because i don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money (I adopted this belief from Mark Douglas books).

VBRN is the only confluence for PA we have here - thats why i want tight stop. It either gets momentum on break or i am out fast. Maybe i am wrong or right who knows The worst case scenario is covered by my Position Sizing algorithm.

For me the mistake means not following my rules. Bull PB at swing low is a rule, VBRN is in the rule, no more confluence means tight stop. I give my rules a time and number of trades before i change any of them.

Just trying to plan a trade and trade a plan

Happy new Decade !!!
Anything can happen - You never know
  • #84,398
  • Jan 4, 2011 12:51am Jan 4, 2011 12:51am
Good reply. This one I would never trade but that is based on my criteria and experience. I see the first resistance being at 2.0150 instead of 2.0300 -- wanted to point that out.

Scott

Quoting kwikwis
I am very glad to have your opinion on my post.
Yes, I want to go long, because I trade what i see and what i believe. I created a set of rules for myself based on what is taught in this great PA thread.

The PB is at swing low - what was the reason to get there i don't care because i don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money (I adopted this belief from Mark Douglas books).

VBRN is the only confluence for PA we have here - thats why i want tight stop. It either gets momentum on break or i am out fast. Maybe i am...
  • #84,399
  • Jan 4, 2011 1:08am Jan 4, 2011 1:08am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey 786

What I was referring to is that we still want to analyze the trade potential once it forms....
It makes sense to me, while waiting for break out action, I am also looking for some PA between 3400 and 3100 area in the weekly chart. Thanks for the chart. It makes me feel good.

Leelar
  • #84,400
  • Edited 1:19am Jan 4, 2011 1:08am | Edited 1:19am
Quoting kwikwis
The PB is at swing low - what was the reason to get there i don't care because i don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money (I adopted this belief from Mark Douglas books).
Without launching into an essay on my feelings about Mark Douglas and his simplistic, vague, hokey advice - what price has done and will do are absolutely part of the picture. If price has been dropping through the floor, I cant really see how you can possibly not consider it. If it has dumped off a thousand pips in two weeks, I am sure as hell going to take that into account before trying to shoot for a countertrend scalp.

You cant know the actual outcome of any one trade. But you should have an idea of the different possible outcomes and the rough distribution they are going to fall on.

Quoting kwikwis
VBRN is the only confluence for PA we have here - thats why i want tight stop. It either gets momentum on break or i am out fast. Maybe i am wrong or right who knows The worst case scenario is covered by my Position Sizing algorithm.
You cant have a confluence of one factor

Looking at the chart, price has hit your round number, come back, hit it again, come back, hit it again, come back... that doesnt exactly look like rejection, especially when we are talking about a period with very little volume.

If anything, you could say price has gone into a trading range at the round number and is now sitting around. Which means you are trying to enter at the top of said range, which is rarely ideal. Especially when each bar is making new lows.

There is momentum there, but it isnt bullish.

Quoting kwikwis
For me the mistake means not following my rules. Bull PB at swing low is a rule, VBRN is in the rule, no more confluence means tight stop. I give my rules a time and number of trades before i change any of them.
Having rules is fine, but I daresay you are a more capable information processor than something that could be whipped into a five minute EA.

Quoting kwikwis
Happy new Decade !!!
That's awesome, I never even thought of it like that
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
304 traders viewing now