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Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

  • #3,581
  • Jan 2, 2011 5:17pm Jan 2, 2011 5:17pm
Quoting atman
to have a bearish garthley h4, so expect short signal
this is the C-J on H1 .. bearish is right .. going to try same with H4,

N.B. all my charts are overloaded like a Xmas tree .. gives me false sense of security.
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  • #3,582
  • Jan 2, 2011 5:27pm Jan 2, 2011 5:27pm
on the H4 .. tells a different story .. bullish all of a sudden .. or is that just my imagination?

anyway, why trade on Low-volume & directionless MACD?
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  • #3,583
  • Jan 2, 2011 6:01pm Jan 2, 2011 6:01pm
Quoting ShanB
Very nice chart XT. Big pippin you should take note!

I have a question regarding symmetry, measured moves, and the like. Forks have symmetry woven into them as a tool, on the other hand there is also symmetry that can be noted by measuring prior swings and applying to them to current swings(measured moves). At any one point in time there are multiple swings that could be in play, how do you determine what swing the market is matching?! Do you think it is a better idea to forget about trying to measure symmetry by projecting swings and use forks...
ShanB,

Some very good questions, I hope my answers are just a good. On any given chart you look at, one can find many cycles at play. The task as a trader is to find the heart beat of the time frame you are trading.

Use the eye test: open a chart and mark the swings your eyes naturally gravitate to...you will probably find, if you measure the pip movement that waves and counter waves will have an average pip movement to them on that time frame. Everything in between is noise.

Can noise be traded, yes it can. But, you are best learning to recognize the bigger waves before attempting to harvest numerous smaller waves. This is not to say the smaller waves can not be used to control risk, however.

As for using median lines instead of measured move, et al, I use them both. I owe much of that to my own mentor who made me project waves and price movements well into the future using these same tools. His accuracy is unparalleled and I am fortunate to have studied under him and picked up a few things along the way.

I would also remind you, too, that though median lines carry a time element with them, few understand how to use that element. Whereas, if you continue to use the study of symmetry, ie measured moves, you will see the timing element with much more focus.

Just my humble thoughts, Shan, hope it answers your question well enough.

xt
  • #3,584
  • Jan 2, 2011 7:25pm Jan 2, 2011 7:25pm
Quoting xtsunami
ShanB,

Some very good questions, I hope my answers are just a good. On any given chart you look at, one can find many cycles at play. The task as a trader is to find the heart beat of the time frame you are trading.

Use the eye test: open a chart and mark the swings your eyes naturally gravitate to...you will probably find, if you measure the pip movement that waves and counter waves will have an average pip movement to them on that time frame. Everything in between is noise.


xt
Thats the easy part. I can draw great forks and do great analysis, but taking the right trade is the hard part. Just because price breaks and closes above or below a major swing high or low, that doesnt necessarly mean that price is going to change direction.

Will price change direction or will it resume the trend that it was in?? well, if you look at it that way, you have a 50/50 shot of getting it right.

Most breakouts dont work, but sometimes they do....so therefor, there is no way of possibly knowing if it will work until after the fact.

this is why its hard. In hindsight, we're all master traders.
  • #3,585
  • Jan 2, 2011 7:28pm Jan 2, 2011 7:28pm
all of which brings me back to a question I have raised at various times .. all these rhythmic swings whatever you want to call them .. projections into the future, geometric waves & counterwaves .. are they really able to anticipate, to allow for the wild swings of the USDollar?

we have seen this any number of times: pending some announcement perhaps, the currency market goes into a state of suspended animation, only to then take off with a vengeance .. 200 pips in one direction or the other is not unusual .. the bestlaid charts of mice & men, what becomes of them then?
  • #3,586
  • Jan 2, 2011 7:46pm Jan 2, 2011 7:46pm
Quoting big_pipin
Thats the easy part. I can draw great forks and do great analysis, but taking the right trade is the hard part. Just because price breaks and closes above or below a major swing high or low, that doesnt necessarly mean that price is going to change direction.

Will price change direction or will it resume the trend that it was in?? well, if you look at it that way, you have a 50/50 shot of getting it right.

Most breakouts dont work, but sometimes they do....so therefor, there is no way of possibly knowing if it will work until after the fact....
Where did that come from? and Breakouts? Good grief....................

Forks or any tool for that matter are just a way to frame a trade, a decision process to assist the trader. You want a psychic magnifying glass to hold up to the screen and show you in advance what trades are winners and what trades are losers.... doesn't exist.

There's risk everytime you put on a trade, as a matter of fact that's about the only thing you can control in the whole gambit of trading... your risk.

Xt said it a while back, but I'd say few took note.

Quoting Xtsunami
"the focus of a professional trader is to make a profit irregardless of their interpretation of buy or sell, north or south, up or down....managing your risk is more important then being right about direction. You can be right on direction, but still unprofitable and vis a vie"
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3532

Geometry, R:R, Timing, Time of Day in relation to market events, ect ect. to adnausium..... you look to get as many or as much going in your favor, the more the better, better chances and still your, primo A+++ setups can fail.

Put your focus on making money, you don't have to be "right" to do so.
  • #3,587
  • Jan 2, 2011 8:18pm Jan 2, 2011 8:18pm
big pippin,

I wish you well with your trading. As for me, I can not possibly add anything to someones trading journey who exults themselves as drawing great forks and doing such great analysis.
  • #3,588
  • Jan 2, 2011 8:24pm Jan 2, 2011 8:24pm
Let's see what happens.

Minimum target is the sliding parallel or median line of downfork (whichever price makes it to first).
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"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #3,589
  • Jan 2, 2011 9:10pm Jan 2, 2011 9:10pm
Quoting xtsunami
big pippin,

I wish you well with your trading. As for me, I can not possibly add anything to someones trading journey who exults themselves as drawing great forks and doing such great analysis.
Not sure I understand your intention with that statement...

All im saying is that analysis of price and trading are rather different. There are many people that can draw lines like a master, but like me, they struggle on the PnL statement.
  • #3,590
  • Jan 2, 2011 9:16pm Jan 2, 2011 9:16pm
Also 1st Bearish Gartley Patern TP hit.
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Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #3,591
  • Jan 2, 2011 11:04pm Jan 2, 2011 11:04pm
Quoting xtsunami
ShanB,

Some very good questions, I hope my answers are just a good. On any given chart you look at, one can find many cycles at play. The task as a trader is to find the heart beat of the time frame you are trading.

Use the eye test: open a chart and mark the swings your eyes naturally gravitate to...you will probably find, if you measure the pip movement that waves and...
Thanks for the great response, I truly appreciate it . I think I will continue to augment my meidan lines etc with the symmetry concept, but I have to learn how to use the Andrew's tools in live trading before I move onto other tools! I will try your tips when I look at my charts as well, thanks.
  • #3,592
  • Jan 2, 2011 11:08pm Jan 2, 2011 11:08pm
Quoting big_pipin
Thats the easy part. I can draw great forks and do great analysis, but taking the right trade is the hard part. Just because price breaks and closes above or below a major swing high or low, that doesnt necessarly mean that price is going to change direction.

Will price change direction or will it resume the trend that it was in?? well, if you look at it that way, you have a 50/50 shot of getting it right.

Most breakouts dont work, but sometimes they do....so therefor, there is no way of possibly knowing if it will work until after the fact....
XT is a veteran and a master trader in his own right. If you looked up his sig and saw his history, you would know this!

You may think you have good analysis, but you have shown us that you cannot draw a proper fork! I would examine your lack of knowledge of these tools, rather than attack the tools themselves!
  • #3,593
  • Jan 2, 2011 11:27pm Jan 2, 2011 11:27pm
Ok. fair enough, if you can show me a fork that I've drawn that doesnt follow the HLH, or LHL format.
  • #3,594
  • Jan 3, 2011 12:12am Jan 3, 2011 12:12am
Quoting GreatYves
Also 1st Bearish Gartley Patern TP hit.
Attachment

Hi GY nice one. I am also betting on this down-move in EU.
IN EJ also I add some more shorts @ quartile .

Let us see how it will unfold.

Regards,
TAQ
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  • #3,595
  • Jan 3, 2011 1:59am Jan 3, 2011 1:59am
Quoting taq
Hi GY nice one. I am also betting on this down-move in EU.
IN EJ also I add some more shorts @ quartile .

Let us see how it will unfold.

Regards,
TAQ
Very nice charts Taq...I have something very similar in my analysis, good trading!
  • #3,596
  • Jan 3, 2011 4:10am Jan 3, 2011 4:10am
I am not going to trade today, but I have posted two screen shots of what I am watching.
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  • #3,597
  • Jan 3, 2011 8:38am Jan 3, 2011 8:38am
Quoting big_pipin
If a fork truely projects the probable path of price, and has an 80% chance of hitting its median line, then either I'm a very very unlucky trader, or just dumb. I trade in the direction of the forks, but get stopped out almost 100% of the time.

I've been trading for more years than I'd like to admit (and no, my profile isnt up to date). I understand the whole concept of "if this high/low breaks, price could change direction"

I GET that, but acting on it, is proving near impossible.

Here is a theoretical example of something that I...
Jmho take on the time you were looking.

Price had possibly made and broken the p4 line, indicating a possible change in direction.

IMHO, the new up fork should have anchored the bottom median off the end of the correction, not necessarily the range low as you have shown. when off the end of the range (taking into account the time taken in range) the resulting up spike in my opinion is close enough to be seen as hitting the center median target, however the small undershoot should be accounted for in marking the slider or adjustment of the forks angle.

Special note needs to be made that the up spike ends (possible new p4) in a rejection of 2 prime Fib levels drawn from the prior swing p2,p3 and overall p0,p3.........meaning possible continuation of south move.

The up spike when breaking the range never looked back to afford an opportunity to enter off a median retest.

Since we are now making new highs, current up spike above prior possible p4 a retest of the bottom median is a place to look for new longs.

Price bases several times off the bottom medians or adjustments, but never breaks the support now turned resistance seen in price action. If your cautious waiting for the south resisting trendline to be broken gives you yet another test to long. It was evident that there were some buyers in that area.

Each of those median line base and small upward moves would have given you enough room to cover your position and make money but when price fails to break the overhead resistance you have to be ready to get out quick or take advantage by reversing.

Again, don't be consumed by the lines and what you expect price to stay inside and adhere to them. Instead focus on your position and whats going on around you.

As you can see price mutated into a ugly range that lasted the rest of December as most traders were absent.

fwiw
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  • #3,598
  • Jan 3, 2011 8:43am Jan 3, 2011 8:43am
Quoting taq
Hi GY nice one. I am also betting on this down-move in EU.
IN EJ also I add some more shorts @ quartile .

Let us see how it will unfold.

Regards,
TAQ
On the EURUSD Daily,

that supply/demand zone in the middle is kind of worthless in my oppinion.

The 4 Hour supply/demand (red line) was spot on, i had that one marked aswell and shorted at the retest of it although in my oppinion i should have taken the top most one for a short.

Very good charts as usual, excellent
  • #3,599
  • Jan 3, 2011 9:41am Jan 3, 2011 9:41am
So far this PF has been working well for the EURUSD.
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  • #3,600
  • Jan 3, 2011 12:17pm Jan 3, 2011 12:17pm
Quoting kapital
Let's see what happens.

Minimum target is the sliding parallel or median line of downfork (whichever price makes it to first).
Although the upfork (which is a catalin by the way)showed early signs of life, it eventually failed. The lower hagopian line was the last saving grace for the upfork to be of any significance at this time.

This type of setup goes back to big_pippin's disappointment with price not reaching the median line of a fork. Sometimes, when you are uncertain about a forks validity or there hasn't been enough confirmation, staying out of the trade or lowering your expectations for a price target would be in order. Applying the latter to this setup, the lower parallel of the downfork would have been the ideal target. I admit to the need of putting this into practice more myself and not become "blinded" by the "juicier" targets.
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"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
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