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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #9,881
  • Jan 2, 2011 2:10pm Jan 2, 2011 2:10pm
Quoting Custos
oh, I am just curious, cause I am interested in your stats. But from what you told me, the stats are unfavorable.

As you said, it is just impossible to be 100% right. And apparently with your strat, if you make one mistake you are back at 0.
hm, and even a 90%+ winrate is very hard to achieve. I am not sure if S/R level trading, no matter how many tools you add will ever achieve such a high winrate.
One might have to tighten up the stop loss to see if we can get a positive expectancy.
But I agree, trends definitely help.
The interesting thing is that it was an approach that worked for me with stocks. Penny stocks to be more exact. I had a time stop: 2 to 5 days; I made some nice, very high 5 figures with penny stocks. But it was too time consuming. They were very volatile, mercurial, fast, very fast. SUPER DUPER STRESSFUL. Then, i used to visit IHUB, meet some interesting shady, scammy, pumper characters like "shakerzandmoverz", "stocklobster", "lucifer","kingofpennies" etc.
Then, i started running into the limit of liquidity with penny stocks; there were very, very few, rare penny stocks you can swing between $60,000 and $100,000 at a clip and manage to still get out witth liquidity. It just wasnt happening. and i need something faster than regular stocks, i started ttrying forex.

That is how i got into forex anyhow.
  • #9,882
  • Jan 2, 2011 2:12pm Jan 2, 2011 2:12pm
Quoting shiko
Custos, you know what's funny? I did not read about pyramiding anywhere... I got into it myself. it says how similar most of humans think and how proper trading habits go against human nature.
by piramiding I mean additing to losing position increasing each additional position while price moves against you. i had the whole system of doing so
well, I am not sure if that is the real definition of pyramiding.

The definition of pyramiding as I understand it: You enter a position in the market, the market moves into your favor, you enter some more, moves again in your favor and you enter some more. So you are adding to winners.

I think what you did is actually called averaging in, the opposite of pyramiding.

I totally agree that averaging in is doomed to fail. At least I think 99% of people will not be able to make this profitable.

But pyramiding (adding to winners), can be very profitable in my opinion.
  • #9,883
  • Jan 2, 2011 2:13pm Jan 2, 2011 2:13pm
Quoting shiko
Custos, you know what's funny? I did not read about pyramiding anywhere... I got into it myself. it says how similar most of humans think and how proper trading habits go against human nature.
by piramiding I mean additing to losing position increasing each additional position while price moves against you. i had the whole system of doing so

Adding to winning position: pyramiding
Adding to losing position: martingale, double down.


(yeah, i know martingale is a sort of pyramiding).
  • #9,884
  • Jan 2, 2011 2:22pm Jan 2, 2011 2:22pm
Quoting dddd
Adding to winning position: pyramiding
Adding to losing position: martingale, double down.


(yeah, i know martingale is a sort of pyramiding).
I guess pyramiding can be also dangerous unless profit is locked somehow.
  • #9,885
  • Jan 2, 2011 2:31pm Jan 2, 2011 2:31pm
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watching these pairs
  • #9,886
  • Jan 2, 2011 2:39pm Jan 2, 2011 2:39pm
I noticed a lot of bank holidays tomorrow. I wonder does it worth trading? GB bank holiday.
  • #9,887
  • Jan 2, 2011 2:41pm Jan 2, 2011 2:41pm
Quoting shiko
I noticed a lot of bank holidays tomorrow. I wonder does it worth trading? GB bank holiday.
it's always worth trading, at least for me
  • #9,888
  • Jan 2, 2011 2:46pm Jan 2, 2011 2:46pm
Quoting Custos
it's always worth trading, at least for me

yeah, but I am worried I wonder, if banks are closed, who is trading ?
  • #9,889
  • Jan 2, 2011 2:55pm Jan 2, 2011 2:55pm
Quoting shiko
yeah, but I am worried I wonder, if banks are closed, who is trading ?
well, since I am trading the high time-frames, I don't worry about a day.
  • #9,890
  • Jan 2, 2011 3:17pm Jan 2, 2011 3:17pm
Quoting Custos
well, since I am trading the high time-frames, I don't worry about a day.

You have the point. I also trade high time frame but I am not going to stay in trade as long as you are, so I am worried
I have had a thought. I guess in this case is the best to use limit orders at such fib retracements levels + s/r area so that stop loss is a minimal and let for bigger take profit. if price does not get there so be it. But if yes, even few well placed trades with good R;R can more than make up for those trades that were not taken due to price not reaching limit order.
  • #9,891
  • Jan 2, 2011 3:33pm Jan 2, 2011 3:33pm
I want to keep stop as small as possible ideally up to 60 pips.
  • #9,892
  • Jan 2, 2011 3:34pm Jan 2, 2011 3:34pm
Quoting shiko
You have the point. I also trade high time frame but I am not going to stay in trade as long as you are, so I am worried
I have had a thought. I guess in this case is the best to use limit orders at such fib retracements levels + s/r area so that stop loss is a minimal and let for bigger take profit. if price does not get there so be it. But if yes, even few well placed trades with good R;R can more than make up for those trades that were not taken due to price not reaching limit order.
hm, yes, if you have a high win-loss strat, then this will work. But if you are shooting for high R:R and low win-loss, then this might not work. So you have to consider what strategy you have at hand.
  • #9,893
  • Jan 2, 2011 3:44pm Jan 2, 2011 3:44pm
Quoting Custos
hm, yes, if you have a high win-loss strat, then this will work. But if you are shooting for high R:R and low win-loss, then this might not work. So you have to consider what strategy you have at hand.
I am looking for better than 50% hit rate and R:R 1:1.5 to 1:3. R:R very much depends upon my stop loss and where the price is in relation to previous high/ low and daily ATR/ range. always along the trend.
  • #9,894
  • Jan 2, 2011 5:38pm Jan 2, 2011 5:38pm
Quoting shiko
I am looking for better than 50% hit rate and R:R 1:1.5 to 1:3. R:R very much depends upon my stop loss and where the price is in relation to previous high/ low and daily ATR/ range. always along the trend.
NM method will give this. I think the hit rate of NM method is 60% to 70%. And general R/R is 1:2 to 1:4. If you trade H4 and above.

DanUk 2009 method is around 60% to 70% too. and 1:2 to1:3 r/r
  • #9,895
  • Jan 2, 2011 5:41pm Jan 2, 2011 5:41pm
Quoting dddd
NM method will give this. I think the hit rate of NM method is 60% to 70%. And general R/R is 1:2 to 1:4. If you trade H4 and above.

DanUk 2009 method is around 60% to 70% too. and 1:2 to1:3 r/r

I actually prefer NM method. It is more structured and james16. DanUK is just not for me.
  • #9,896
  • Jan 2, 2011 5:45pm Jan 2, 2011 5:45pm
right now I see set ups according to NM, but I am watching on MT4 and trading on Oanda and there is gap on MT4, I cannot be sure I see everything. This Friday to Monday gap is confusing.
  • #9,897
  • Jan 3, 2011 1:25am Jan 3, 2011 1:25am
Quoting shiko
yeah, but I am worried I wonder, if banks are closed, who is trading ?

what I meant is who is moving the market if banks are closed. who is providing liquidity?
  • #9,898
  • Jan 3, 2011 1:38am Jan 3, 2011 1:38am
Happy New yearrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!!!!....

Guys,
This is a setup that might work out.... head and shoulder setup with a pin bar formation.
Whats up opinioun guys?......

Thanks
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  • #9,899
  • Jan 3, 2011 2:21am Jan 3, 2011 2:21am
Quoting shiko
what I meant is who is moving the market if banks are closed. who is providing liquidity?
the market still can move. From what I understand it's just a balancing act between orders.

On a normal day there are maybe a million orders on both sell and buy side moving the market.
On a day like today there are maybe only 10,000 orders on both sell and buy side.
Today it needs less orders on one side to move the market as opposed to a normal day.

But it's just my assumption, if anybody has a better explanation, please post.
  • #9,900
  • Jan 3, 2011 2:22am Jan 3, 2011 2:22am
Quoting mayorowo
Happy New yearrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!!!!....

Guys,
This is a setup that might work out.... head and shoulder setup with a pin bar formation.
Whats up opinioun guys?......

Thanks
All I see is a massive downtrend sind early 2009. Nobody could make me trade against that trend.
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