Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line) | Page 178 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Better Andrews Pitchfork and MT4 15 replies

Andrews Pitchfork 120 replies

Andrews Pitchfork video 22 replies

median line Bollinger band cross 3 replies

Attachments: Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)
Exit Attachments

Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

  • #3,541
  • Edited 12:01pm Dec 31, 2010 11:37am | Edited 12:01pm
Quoting big_pipin
Where you marked your buy entry..was that at the open of the bar or the close....

If it was the open, that just seemed like a really risky trade. You had no idea the market was going to go higher, why not go long after the market closed and broke those highs, then place your stop under the bottom fork line?..that would seem like a much higher probability trade.
Hi Big Pipin,

The entry would have been as close to the green L-MLH as possible on the green candle. Included a pivot count. P5 fell in an area of support. Blue oval shows bullish sentiment. Lots there to show things are changing. Not as risky as it might first appear.

Hope that helps,

FX4Newbies

P.S. Added a second chart with a similar count.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-gbp12-31-10-2.jpg Size: 133 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-gbp12-31-10-3.jpg Size: 132 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #3,542
  • Dec 31, 2010 12:05pm Dec 31, 2010 12:05pm
The new year could bring more momentum to the downside for this pair.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UC.GIF Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UC 2.GIF Size: 38 KB
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #3,543
  • Dec 31, 2010 12:08pm Dec 31, 2010 12:08pm
Hi Kapital,

Your Usd-Cad charts look good. Would want to see it break red L-MLH (with a throwback). Showing support at the moment. Will try to keep an eye.

FX4Newbies
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd-cad12-31-10 h4-2.jpg Size: 98 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #3,544
  • Dec 31, 2010 1:03pm Dec 31, 2010 1:03pm
If you look at the slightly bigger picture I think the trends are clearer

Happy New Year

Beeb
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eg.jpg Size: 83 KB
  • #3,545
  • Dec 31, 2010 1:38pm Dec 31, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting beeb
If you look at the slightly bigger picture I think the trends are clearer

Happy New Year

Beeb
There MT4 indicator that you draw and levels of 25% and 75% that in your chart? Happy New Year to you and all
  • #3,546
  • Dec 31, 2010 2:04pm Dec 31, 2010 2:04pm
sorry Atman I don't know what you mean

Chart is Ensign software with Esignal feed....


beeb
  • #3,547
  • Dec 31, 2010 2:43pm Dec 31, 2010 2:43pm
Quoting beeb
sorry Atman I don't know what you mean

Chart is Ensign software with Esignal feed....


beeb
thanks
  • #3,548
  • Dec 31, 2010 3:43pm Dec 31, 2010 3:43pm
Quoting beeb
If you look at the slightly bigger picture I think the trends are clearer

Happy New Year

Beeb
The bigger picture?..according to who? lol. Why not we all just cut the crap and trade off monthly charts
  • #3,549
  • Dec 31, 2010 4:05pm Dec 31, 2010 4:05pm
Quoting xtsunami
BigPippin,

I opened up a euro chart and tried to walk through my first thoughts on a blank chart. Not sure if it will help you or hinder you and it is by no means complete. Just some things I look at when beginning to mark up a chart.
Very nice chart XT. Big pippin you should take note!

I have a question regarding symmetry, measured moves, and the like. Forks have symmetry woven into them as a tool, on the other hand there is also symmetry that can be noted by measuring prior swings and applying to them to current swings(measured moves). At any one point in time there are multiple swings that could be in play, how do you determine what swing the market is matching?! Do you think it is a better idea to forget about trying to measure symmetry by projecting swings and use forks because they have the geometry implicit in them.

Im asking this because there is always so many cycles in the market at any time and it is difficult to see which one is in play! I have attached a chart of euro, as you can see there were measured moves that ultimately played out but there were also other possibilities that didn't!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_symmetry.JPG Size: 87 KB
  • #3,550
  • Dec 31, 2010 4:15pm Dec 31, 2010 4:15pm
Now the Euro with the major forks in play! The Geometry is implicit in them as you can see. Almost every swing has some relation in proportion to a previous one! That is why there are bounces off of quartiles, ML, MLH'S
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_forks.JPG Size: 101 KB
  • #3,551
  • Dec 31, 2010 5:30pm Dec 31, 2010 5:30pm
If a fork truely projects the probable path of price, and has an 80% chance of hitting its median line, then either I'm a very very unlucky trader, or just dumb. I trade in the direction of the forks, but get stopped out almost 100% of the time.

I've been trading for more years than I'd like to admit (and no, my profile isnt up to date). I understand the whole concept of "if this high/low breaks, price could change direction"

I GET that, but acting on it, is proving near impossible.

Here is a theoretical example of something that I would have done, and my analysis of it.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-step1.jpg Size: 155 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-step2.jpg Size: 135 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-step3.jpg Size: 139 KB
  • #3,552
  • Edited Jan 1, 2011 7:01am Dec 31, 2010 6:23pm | Edited Jan 1, 2011 7:01am
Quoting big_pipin
If a fork truely projects the probable path of price, and has an 80% chance of hitting its median line, then either I'm a very very unlucky trader, or just dumb. I trade in the direction of the forks, but get stopped out almost 100% of the time.

I've been trading for more years than I'd like to admit (and no, my profile isnt up to date). I understand the whole concept of "if this high/low breaks, price could change direction"

I GET that, but acting on it, is proving near impossible.

Here is a theoretical example of something that I...
Hello Big Pipin,

Will try to navigate my way through your questions and charts as systematically as I can :

First of all, the 80% probability of price hitting the median line applies to forks that are applied to immediate swings. The red arrows indicate the swings omitted...so that probability does not apply. That does not mean that price will never reach the ML under this condition as you have drawn it. It just means that the probability may be less.

Secondly, per your drawing, the price failed to hit the ML at the red X (and another rule comes into play: Hagopian), which indicates weakness: first warning. Price goes below the green L-MLH: second warning. Price goes below the Sliding Parallel (not Warning Line as you have called it): third warning. Three consistent messages of weakness; i.e. sell. Trade what the market shows, as it shows it to you.

On your second chart, you are going long after price has told you, "I'm losing steam." This "new" information should be considered in light of what you expected from Analysis Step 1: "Break out from significant resistance. Price should retrace and GO HIGHER." Be flexible with how price wants to move. It will always tell you.

Many traders see the fork being applied and think it is just a matter of finding 3 pivots and putting up the "magic fork" not realizing that there are underlying principles of understanding and interpretation associated with it. I think a foundational approach might help.

Take care,

FX4Newbies
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd12-31-10 h1.jpg Size: 103 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #3,553
  • Dec 31, 2010 6:25pm Dec 31, 2010 6:25pm
Very good discussions and points. Thank you all for the nice charts, points and explanations.
Where did the Forex Traders learnt to give back so much to others, assist others, discus and grow together…very nice to see. Thank you all for this “Momentum and Action”.
All of you have a Great 2011.
Regards
Vatsan
  • #3,554
  • Dec 31, 2010 6:29pm Dec 31, 2010 6:29pm
Quoting fxvatsan
Very good discussions and points. Thank you all for the nice charts, points and explanations.
Where did the Forex Traders learnt to give back so much to others, assist others, discus and grow together…very nice to see. Thank you all for this “Momentum and Action”.
All of you have a Great 2011.
Regards
Vatsan
Same to you Vatsan. All the best .


FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #3,555
  • Edited 7:41pm Dec 31, 2010 6:59pm | Edited 7:41pm
Quoting ShanB
Very nice chart XT. Big pippin you should take note!

I have a question regarding symmetry, measured moves, and the like. Forks have symmetry woven into them as a tool, on the other hand there is also symmetry that can be noted by measuring prior swings and applying to them to current swings(measured moves). At any one point in time there are multiple swings that could be in play, how do you determine what swing the market is matching?! Do you think it is a better idea to forget about trying to measure symmetry by projecting swings and use forks...
Hello ShanB,

Just wanted to say in reference to your question on measuring swings, symmetry etc...I generally don't look for them simply because it takes my focus off of how I trade. You are right, there are so many cycles, and swings within swings. Make what is most obvious and reliable to you your main approach and flavour it with these side items if you think they will improve what you are already doing...my 2 cents.

Happy New Year to you,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #3,556
  • Dec 31, 2010 7:17pm Dec 31, 2010 7:17pm
Thanks FX! I suspect that this is the correct advice!

And to pippin...i think it is obvious that you need foundational material! Andrews used these tools on hand drawn charts with EOD data. He made millions for himself and for the Kennedys. He was a master in his own right! Do the tools some justice and learn Andrews foundational material!

Happy new year to everyone!
  • #3,557
  • Dec 31, 2010 7:58pm Dec 31, 2010 7:58pm
Looks like im just going to have to bite the bullet and buy that fork trading course from that old man. I don't want to pay the 500 dollars or whatever it is because that means im going to need to sell some stocks that are doing well, but if it helps, which I hope it does then the price is a small cost.

Forks apparently arnt as easy as they are advertised to be, but I don't mind he challange.

Honestly, after three years of trading I thought id be full time by now. That was several years ago.
  • #3,558
  • Edited Jan 1, 2011 7:03am Dec 31, 2010 8:03pm | Edited Jan 1, 2011 7:03am
Quoting big_pipin
Looks like im just going to have to bite the bullet and buy that fork trading course from that old man. I don't want to pay the 500 dollars or whatever it is because that means im going to need to sell some stocks that are doing well, but if it helps, which I hope it does then the price is a small cost.

Forks apparently arnt as easy as they are advertised to be, but I don't mind he challange.

Honestly, after three years of trading I thought id be full time by now. That was several years ago.
I think it would be well worth it to get some foundational understanding. Once you get those nuts and bolts, then you have to apply them to the live market (which is always my preferred learning/teaching style). The dynamic environment adds another dimension.

Glad you have taken the challenge. It will do wonders for your seeing. Forks are easy if you understand price action and Market Structure: an utter nightmare if you ignore them (and that goes for trading period ). The greater challenge then is becoming the trader...dealing with the psychology etc. That is a continuous process...daily following the rules, being objective etc.

All the best,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #3,559
  • Dec 31, 2010 8:51pm Dec 31, 2010 8:51pm
Quoting beeb
If you look at the slightly bigger picture I think the trends are clearer

Happy New Year

Beeb
That is true Beeb...the trends are always clearer on the larger time-frame. It is just a matter of what the trader needs to see to trade the time-frame they are working with. Keeping an eye on the overall picture though couldn't hurt.

Happy New Year,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #3,560
  • Dec 31, 2010 9:29pm Dec 31, 2010 9:29pm
Wish every body a very happy and prosperous NEW YEAR.

Regards,
TAQ
7 traders viewing now