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  • #321
  • Feb 14, 2006 2:34pm Feb 14, 2006 2:34pm
Quoting lambrechtj
Welcome back...

327 posts you can always read those later, besides you will just get new ones anyway.

Does the current gbpusd look like an entry?

It has met all the conditons on the 1 hr except I dont see much on the daily to indicate a big reversal
The setup is looking better as time goes by ... imo. I believe all we need now is to apply 1 of the 3 entry critria and take the trade ... only time will tell. btw ... Welcome Vegas!

http://www.innoexe.com/gbpusd-vegas-01.jpg
If it is not broken, fix it until it is!
  • #322
  • Feb 14, 2006 2:56pm Feb 14, 2006 2:56pm
well I'm in at 1.7372 when it hit the 50% +5pips for the day.
although a reversal on the daily isn't looking that good right now ,had momentum up and down and crossed the 50 .Nearly at zero if it holds the course a bit longer.

as for the model for GBPJPY I use model 1 and 3 because the GBPUSD uses 1 and 3 and the JPY uses 1.
I wait for the 3rd fib.
still on the side lines on that one though.
  • #323
  • Feb 14, 2006 3:05pm Feb 14, 2006 3:05pm
Hello to all,

I am completely new to trading and I would like to thank everyone in this forum especially Vegas for his great work and for his generosity in sharing his knowledge to everyone.

I have just made my first trade using VWB today and it is doing well. I have a day job that prevents me from monitoring the market movement during European trading hours which I hope will not be a hindrance to me using Vegas' great model.

Thanks again Vegas and to all the members of this forum for all the great inputs.
  • #324
  • Feb 14, 2006 3:18pm Feb 14, 2006 3:18pm
When c2 sends you a text message on your cell phone does it actually tell you what was done or is it just a hit to let you know to check the web site for an update?

Thanks,
Shootist
Shootist - Have Pip Shooters Will Travel
  • #325
  • Feb 14, 2006 3:38pm Feb 14, 2006 3:38pm
Quoting zenophyte
well I'm in at 1.7372 when it hit the 50% +5pips for the day.
although a reversal on the daily isn't looking that good right now ,had momentum up and down and crossed the 50 .Nearly at zero if it holds the course a bit longer.
I took it right @ the fib 1.7367, this time I'm making sure I take half at the tunnel (if it goes that far). The last GBP trade, I was up almost 200 pip and got out with less than 25% of that number.
  • #326
  • Feb 14, 2006 3:38pm Feb 14, 2006 3:38pm
Hello Pipex,

Can you tell me what the indicator is showing that diversion, and what the settings are? I look for diversion all the time - use Stochastic RSI Oscillator(8,3) and MACD (8,12,9) and they are not showing this diversion

Thanks,
Jay
  • #327
  • Feb 14, 2006 3:55pm Feb 14, 2006 3:55pm
Quoting Pipex
The setup is looking better as time goes by ... imo. I believe all we need now is to apply 1 of the 3 entry critria and take the trade ... only time will tell. btw ... Welcome Vegas!
Just an observation;

It looks to me that your lower Indicator is based on The Close
And that you are comparing it to a Trendline drawn on the Low.

If I'm correct, is that the way you normally look for divergence using the Lower Indicator?
  • #328
  • Feb 14, 2006 4:05pm Feb 14, 2006 4:05pm
I took it right @ the fib 1.7367, this time I'm making sure I take half at the tunnel (if it goes that far). The last GBP trade, I was up almost 200 pip and got out with less than 25% of that number.

I take some off if I get into a good trade sell a unit at the fib or I have been thinking about tightening my stop as it crosses the fib!
  • #329
  • Feb 14, 2006 4:15pm Feb 14, 2006 4:15pm
Vegas I have 2 questions about your spreadsheet.

Column K (row 103) is the median of Column I which = 30

1. Now is this 30 where you get the 30 for Column L?

Column L (row 103) median = 47

2. Going with this theory is the 47 for Column M from the median of Colum L?

I might be way off base with all this, it just looks like too much chance for this not to be true.

P.S. I think that whoever enters your values missed the 84 in column I (row 93) that was suppose to be brought over to Columns L&M don't know if it changes anything but thought I would say something.
Shootist - Have Pip Shooters Will Travel
  • #330
  • Feb 14, 2006 5:07pm Feb 14, 2006 5:07pm
Quoting Bemac
Just an observation;

It looks to me that your lower Indicator is based on The Close
And that you are comparing it to a Trendline drawn on the Low.

If I'm correct, is that the way you normally look for divergence using the Lower Indicator?
I made a mistake .... normal for me.
If it is not broken, fix it until it is!
  • #331
  • Feb 14, 2006 5:30pm Feb 14, 2006 5:30pm
Quoting zenophyte
A reversal forming at the 3rd FIB if anyone else watches this one!!!
Entry at 204.00 for a 50% + 5 pips reversal!!!
Zenophyte, looks like you and I are on the same wave length, I took this trade @ 204.01, just one pip over the 50 fib. Strong move down, followed by momentum off the low, the wick is nice and long. The 1-hour formed a PIN bar as well off the SHI Channel and volume remained strong. Last but not least, 50% was touch and now surpassed.


Going to monitor this one close, since it's not part of the Vegas's recommended pairs.
  • #332
  • Feb 14, 2006 5:33pm Feb 14, 2006 5:33pm
Quoting Pipex
normal for me.
No Problem Pipex. I think that's a very common mistake. Bet you'll think of it next time tho.

May the Pips be with you.
  • #333
  • Feb 14, 2006 8:57pm Feb 14, 2006 8:57pm
I am closely watching 2 currency's right now: Cable and Swissy

Cable is migrating around the 1.7362 area which is the 50% rule. I am hesitant to enter now because it didn't have good speed going up. If we go higher then this, like by 30 pips, then I will enter long.

I have entered a short on the swissy. It exceeded the 50% rule by 30 pips. Lets see what this does.
  • #334
  • Feb 14, 2006 11:12pm Feb 14, 2006 11:12pm
Quoting xspowerx
I am closely watching 2 currency's right now: Cable and Swissy

Cable is migrating around the 1.7362 area which is the 50% rule. I am hesitant to enter now because it didn't have good speed going up. If we go higher then this, like by 30 pips, then I will enter long.

I have entered a short on the swissy. It exceeded the 50% rule by 30 pips. Lets see what this does.
First of all I want to thank vegas for everything he has offered to the forum, but I have a question to everyone. Why enter the trade right now when bernake is going to talk tomorrow morning us time. What he says will move the market one way or the other, probably 100 pips or so. So I am going to wait for his speech tomorrow, which I believe will be bullish for the $ which would make both the swiss trade and the pound trade a bad move at this time. I just want to know what everyone's thought on this is.

Lately it seems the news has moved the market more than anything else, then the market seems to rebound from it which has made it hard to do tech analysis in my humble opinion. Again I would like anyones thoughts and strategies during these times.

Also, since the beginning of the year bad news seems to effect the $ more than good news does, from my point of view anyway.
  • #335
  • Feb 14, 2006 11:40pm Feb 14, 2006 11:40pm
I entered cable long at 7362 which I thought was 50% retrace. I thought I saw all 3 concepts before jumping in.

Did I pick the correct 50% point? I took the high and low for the day and divided by 2.

Am I correct that all 3 concepts were there? If so then it may be just bad luck that price did not get any farther than 50%. If it's bad luck what do I do? Do I exit or do I wait for something to happen either good or bad?
Attached Image
  • #336
  • Feb 15, 2006 12:02am Feb 15, 2006 12:02am
Gm everyone,

With reference to going long on cable at the mo..Vegas says that if the 50% retracement area is taken out violently then there is a better chance of there being a reversal day.

Would you say that this happened in this case? The 50% area was 'nudged' but not taken out with any follow through/conviction.

Not trying to sound the the expert LOL..just my 2 cents. Would obviously welcome others comments on this.
  • #337
  • Feb 15, 2006 12:12am Feb 15, 2006 12:12am
Quoting johannbok
First of all I want to thank vegas for everything he has offered to the forum, but I have a question to everyone. Why enter the trade right now when bernake is going to talk tomorrow morning us time. What he says will move the market one way or the other, probably 100 pips or so. So I am going to wait for his speech tomorrow, which I believe will be bullish for the $ which would make both the swiss trade and the pound trade a bad move at this time. I just want to know what everyone's thought on this is.

Lately it seems the news has moved the market more than anything else, then the market seems to rebound from it which has made it hard to do tech analysis in my humble opinion. Again I would like anyones thoughts and strategies during these times.

Also, since the beginning of the year bad news seems to effect the $ more than good news does, from my point of view anyway.
Hello johannbok, I understand your thoughts exactly and you may be right in the end. Been there done that. But your answer is in the bag of marbles, we don't care about all that we can't control or what everyone says, does or where price goes we can only go by our method and the trade set ups that says the probabilities of the method is in our favor in the long run. Maybe not this trade maybe not the next but in the long run I will win. The bag is weighted in my favor. This post drove it home for me.
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...&postcount=279


Thanks,



Matt
  • #338
  • Feb 15, 2006 1:19am Feb 15, 2006 1:19am
Quoting volan
I entered cable long at 7362 which I thought was 50% retrace. I thought I saw all 3 concepts before jumping in.

Did I pick the correct 50% point? I took the high and low for the day and divided by 2.

Am I correct that all 3 concepts were there? If so then it may be just bad luck that price did not get any farther than 50%. If it's bad luck what do I do? Do I exit or do I wait for something to happen either good or bad?
Looks like everything was there and ready for a good trade, based on the Vegas rules. Its just the momemtum died off right at or after the 50%, kaput! boat engine died now just floating around, need a pair of and Oars. Perhaps the dealers now know the Vegas method, just joking.

It would be nice if some of the more experienced traders could put some insight in, it aint going anywhere anyway for now, perhaps the london open will kick start it. We have a new day so we have to take new measurerments for the 30 pip move from the open anyway, the stuff for the good trade was based on yesterdays open. I'm going to get some shut eye have to get up for work tommorow. I'm not in at this time.
  • #339
  • Feb 15, 2006 2:37am Feb 15, 2006 2:37am
Quoting lambrechtj
Looks like everything was there and ready for a good trade, based on the Vegas rules. Its just the momemtum died off right at or after the 50%, kaput! boat engine died now just floating around, need a pair of and Oars. Perhaps the dealers now know the Vegas method, just joking.

It would be nice if some of the more experienced traders could put some insight in, it aint going anywhere anyway for now, perhaps the london open will kick start it. We have a new day so we have to take new measurerments for the 30 pip move from the open anyway, the stuff for the good trade was based on yesterdays open. I'm going to get some shut eye have to get up for work tommorow. I'm not in at this time.
I'll give my 2 cent worth. I thought we were to look for the reversal candle first and then wait the next day and apply 1 of the 3 concepts in order to take the trade. I could be wrong .... it woundn't be the first time. Also i agree with Neilg36 ... neither the move south or north moved with any conviction to look like a change in direction ... imo. Vegas will soon guide us in the right direction ... for now I'm flat on this trade unless I see something. More comments are welcome .... later.
If it is not broken, fix it until it is!
  • #340
  • Feb 15, 2006 3:34am Feb 15, 2006 3:34am
Vegas has pulled a marble out of the bag. He is following the method. The only thing we need to know is that.....


The Marble IS!
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