Domino's Price and order flow trading | Page 63 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Price-Structure-Order flow 449 replies

Supply demand trading and order flow 46 replies

How to flow with the order flow? 26 replies

Trading Strategies Using Price Action & Order Flow 187 replies

Order Flow Trading with ICCE Channels 3 replies

Attachments: Domino's Price and order flow trading
Exit Attachments

Domino's Price and order flow trading

  • #1,241
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:27pm Dec 16, 2010 4:27pm
this is were they take your lunch
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.gif Size: 51 KB
  • #1,242
  • Dec 16, 2010 8:48pm Dec 16, 2010 8:48pm
Quoting domino
I dont know of anyone that uses this other than us... Its in our training manuals for new traders.. Ive used it for trading for a long time now using it as a major long term trend indicator.. when the inflation rate differential starts to spread generally its followed by price rallies and interest rate differential change.. We plot the inflation data in excels to see the differentials and we relate them to the Interest rate differential .. if the inflation data starts to widen and the Interest rate data was narrowing .. we have divergence in data.....
Where do you get your inflation rate data from? I couldn't seem to find a good source. Any recommendations? Or is this super sekret prop stuff too
  • #1,243
  • Dec 16, 2010 11:49pm Dec 16, 2010 11:49pm
Quoting erikte279
Where is this manual?

Thanks
You funny, you want him to give you the manual,he his kind enough to share the idea,dont ask for too much, lets work on what he has shared.

Thank you domino for sharing.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #1,244
  • Dec 19, 2010 6:08am Dec 19, 2010 6:08am
When he said new traders I thought he was referencing new traders to this thread in which case the "manual" would be located in this thread which I looked for and failed to find. I had no idea he worked for a trading firm.


Quoting lordgbengs
You funny, you want him to give you the manual,he his kind enough to share the idea,dont ask for too much, lets work on what he has shared.

Thank you domino for sharing.
Annoying Precision
  • #1,245
  • Dec 19, 2010 10:53am Dec 19, 2010 10:53am
Quoting erikte279
When he said new traders I thought he was referencing new traders to this thread in which case the "manual" would be located in this thread which I looked for and failed to find. I had no idea he worked for a trading firm.
He actually owns one Reading most of his posted material will turn a few lightbulbs on, they did for me!
  • #1,246
  • Dec 23, 2010 10:38am Dec 23, 2010 10:38am
I get CPI and assortment of other fundamental numbers from the OECD statistics website:
http://stats.oecd.org/mei/default.asp?lang=e&subject=8

I played with this stuff a couple of years ago with the general conclusion that the fundamental models kinda do work on long time scale, but are susceptible to external variables ('black swans'), politics and structural regulations.

Here's a related interesting example of an fx model based on money supply:
http://mises.org/daily/1767
  • #1,247
  • Dec 23, 2010 12:18pm Dec 23, 2010 12:18pm
Quoting kareem
this is were they take your lunch
its not a good idea to trade in this short term the main base of the market isnt participating.. so the price isnt showing its true value..
  • #1,248
  • Dec 23, 2010 12:18pm Dec 23, 2010 12:18pm
Quoting Benevolent
Where do you get your inflation rate data from? I couldn't seem to find a good source. Any recommendations? Or is this super sekret prop stuff too
search treasury data information banks
  • #1,249
  • Dec 23, 2010 12:37pm Dec 23, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting antoine
I get CPI and assortment of other fundamental numbers from the OECD statistics website:
http://stats.oecd.org/mei/default.asp?lang=e&subject=8

I played with this stuff a couple of years ago with the general conclusion that the fundamental models kinda do work on long time scale, but are susceptible to external variables ('black swans'), politics and structural regulations.

Here's a related interesting example of an fx model based on money supply:
http://mises.org/daily/1767
please note its the actual spread in the inflationary rates making a differential in inflation.. as they widen what it is showing is imbalance in the market between the pairs. This then gives us a trade when price becomes bullish as inflation widens we wait for price action to confirm the fundamentals.. we are not purely buying into fundamentals.. trading is the application of all known data to make the best decisions and apply risk mitigation to them.

We are taking about microstructure in the trading as well this includes the regulations/build design/ and political influences in the market place. This then only gives us a base direction to trade.. All things build up and crash thats the structure of things the way our market works is unsustainable but it does provide us with great opportunities to make money when all things are lined up.
  • #1,250
  • Edited 9:19pm Dec 23, 2010 9:06pm | Edited 9:19pm
For nostalgia's sake here are plots of my old experiments. Back then they were inspired by models from Stephen Leeb's books on predicting inflation, S&P, and crude oil.

First one combines shorterm & longterm interest rates differences to predict eurusd. Second one uses inflation adjusted interest rates difference. I think this just discounts interest rates with cpi.

Quoting domino
please note its the actual spread in the inflationary rates making a differential in inflation
I never tried to predict actual interest rates (or exchange rate) with cpi (and differential), which looks like a good idea. Shouldn't inflation actually depreciate a currency (according to economics textbooks) ? - I suppose this doesn't account for expectations of central bank eventually increasing interest rate in response.

Btw, just read somewhere a dude named Tim Wood claiming the fed discount rate cycles predictable with 3mTbill (fed simply lags the market), though I haven't tested this myself. ok, here is the article http://www.financialsense.com/contri...d-and-equities

Quoting domino
... trading is the application of all known data to make the best decisions and apply risk mitigation to them.
...
when all things are lined up.
- sounds like a pretty comprehensive plan.


edit: obviously my models miserably failed out of sample
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: irateDiffPredictor.JPG Size: 164 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: InflAdjIrateDiffPredictor.JPG Size: 245 KB
  • #1,251
  • Dec 29, 2010 10:55pm Dec 29, 2010 10:55pm
SZ10H-Swapped non compressed yet.. looks like still gap in the initial orderflow so may take time to build but could be a good new years long

if no developed pa around zone next zone to watch is 82.20
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy.jpg Size: 131 KB
  • #1,252
  • Dec 29, 2010 11:01pm Dec 29, 2010 11:01pm
RZ12C-Swapped Compressed and Broken

Rechallanging break .. this is neat PA bearish with IRD..

Looks like well see mild continuence into 2011
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdmxn.jpg Size: 127 KB
  • #1,253
  • Jan 1, 2011 4:58am Jan 1, 2011 4:58am
Quoting domino
RZ12C-Swapped Compressed and Broken

Rechallanging break .. this is neat PA bearish with IRD..

Looks like well see mild continuence into 2011

Hi Domino

Out of interest where would you short, break at point 1 or would you try to enter earlier?
Attached Image
Never said I was Batman,all I'm saying is you'll never see us together.
  • #1,254
  • Jan 3, 2011 10:27am Jan 3, 2011 10:27am
Quoting headfake
Hi Domino

Out of interest where would you short, break at point 1 or would you try to enter earlier?
hey head I short at 3 that inital break will tell you everything you need to know about the setup.. a break that extends past the break point on good volume tells you everything you need to know even if that break point is is touched again as new resistance. so you can short at 3 and if you want to position build again at 4..

p.s. ive taken positions in these two trades.. small sizing of course like always
  • #1,255
  • Jan 3, 2011 10:47am Jan 3, 2011 10:47am
Quoting antoine

I never tried to predict actual interest rates (or exchange rate) with cpi (and differential), which looks like a good idea. Shouldn't inflation actually depreciate a currency (according to economics textbooks) ? - I suppose this doesn't account for expectations of central bank eventually increasing interest rate in response.
yeah economic textbooks are garbage
Quote
Btw, just read somewhere a dude named Tim Wood claiming the fed discount rate cycles predictable with 3mTbill (fed simply lags the market), though I haven't tested this myself. ok, here is the article http://www.financialsense.com/contri...d-and-equities
yeah its true look at the actual cycles and you can see they are actually pretty smooth.. consistant raises or consistant drops.. divergences in bond yield rates long term v short term give great estimates of contractuary cycles and expansion cycles well in advance figure 3-5 months..
Quote
- sounds like a pretty comprehensive plan.


edit: obviously my models miserably failed out of sample

things often fail out of sample.. because periods just cant be lumped together.. through that time many many many underlying struture changes took place in the market.. like when glass-steagall act was implemented the market moved different.. when they changed tax structure it changed movement.. people then preferred long term leveraged income stream for the discounted taxes.. when they put no-short on financials couple of years back temporary it changed structure and price movement..
  • #1,256
  • Jan 3, 2011 10:31pm Jan 3, 2011 10:31pm
Quoting domino
hey head I short at 3 that inital break will tell you everything you need to know about the setup.. a break that extends past the break point on good volume tells you everything you need to know even if that break point is is touched again as new resistance. so you can short at 3 and if you want to position build again at 4..

p.s. ive taken positions in these two trades.. small sizing of course like always
cheers domino,great info... I can spot the setups pretty good in intraday trading, just struggling on daily and bigger tfs to get into the 'flow', it will come am sure.. I like using volume but ive always struggled to find decent sources in forex, who do you use ? all the best for new year btw.
Never said I was Batman,all I'm saying is you'll never see us together.
  • #1,257
  • Jan 4, 2011 7:55pm Jan 4, 2011 7:55pm
Look at the huge pin forming on the usdmxn daily from 11:00 -11:00 .. im out here both trades ill be waiting to see whats up.. locking in about .8% on these trades

there isnt a bigger sign to GTFO than now.
  • #1,258
  • Jan 5, 2011 3:56pm Jan 5, 2011 3:56pm
lookin at the pa surrounding 9950 on the a/u resumption on usdmxn and a/j scaling in
  • #1,259
  • Jan 10, 2011 9:38pm Jan 10, 2011 9:38pm
Quoting domino
lookin at the pa surrounding 9950 on the a/u resumption on usdmxn and a/j scaling in
actually took small hit on this levels broke we are looking for lower buys.. this maybe systemic watchout it feel systemic

took on new shorts in narrow spread IRD currencies eur/usd is one sell sell sell we got a ways to go.. 1.20 in the making again lets see

usdmxn should still be in play tho.. with the eur collapsing again usd should rally I took profit because of the changing enviroment again..
  • #1,260
  • Edited Jan 16, 2011 10:17am Jan 15, 2011 11:30pm | Edited Jan 16, 2011 10:17am
hi domino, are you using margin on your equity trades to achieve your 5% a month goal?

would you buy a "normal" stock like PG or KO during times when they track with the IRD? or do you look for other lesser known equities to play with?

do you have any data showing the approximate win rate on entering with the IRD on the first break (even though pyramiding is where we make our money)?
0 traders viewing now