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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #9,941
  • Dec 26, 2010 11:40am Dec 26, 2010 11:40am
Quoting bonus76
Hi Saxon. After ur post was reading about black box algorithms and seems very interesting. Can u recommend a system or someone that uses black box algorithms?
The only Algorithms that I have been exposed to were at Goldman. I am aware that some small HFs and Cap Management firms use them, but not sure which specific ones use them. They are very expensive and costly to keep up. Also, they are one of the reasons we are in this sweet recession and the crash in 2008. I wouldnt reccomend using them or buying one from a vendor. If you want, you can create your own based on some simple trade variables of your own, but you would need a programmer to do it for you. I am sure you can find one in FF. I know Hayseed is amazing at that stuff.
  • #9,942
  • Dec 26, 2010 11:42am Dec 26, 2010 11:42am
Quoting s2659
I wish Saxon, calderone, Marc, Amy and the rest of ya'll the very best over the holidays (and beyond)

I hope you're all enjoying all the good food, the family, and the vacation.

I haven't posted much here on FF for a long time, and should make it as a new years promise to be more active here in 2011!

I've been working hard to save up for a small capital to get my track record started, I should be ready in a month or two.

Everything is good here, going to 'distance' school after new years as well. I'm taking a few classes, to use the 'free'...
Happy holidays to you as well. Wish you all the best with your ventures! I am also getting back into posting as well and hope to post more frequently now
  • #9,943
  • Dec 26, 2010 12:22pm Dec 26, 2010 12:22pm
I enjoyed that GBP/JPY pdf info.

How about daily highs and lows

daily open

Weekly/Monthly 38, 50 and 61 fibs

Weekly/Monthly pivots & S1 S2 S3, R1 R2 R3

Do they hold importance for the banks and hedge funds too ?

Thanks for the PM. I was really encouraged for my trading. I still have so much to learn.

Merry Christmas & a Happy New Year

Ian
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp h4.jpg Size: 133 KB
  • #9,944
  • Dec 27, 2010 10:26am Dec 27, 2010 10:26am
If 153.62 is taken out. Then the S1 on Monthly 152.62 is looking interesting as a target along with the fib fans 61.8 level you posted in GU pdf at 152.75.

We have another trend line break on the H4, it will be interesting to see if it holds or not.

Im new to drawing fibs. I hope to learn well the structure of how you have made the charts in the pdfs. I do not know if this EURUSD chart is correct so far or not. Anyways I will pick it up soon enough.

My new trading desk has arrived. Its cool. 180cm long, enough for my three monitors I think.

Im working on a 1Hr trend line break at key confluence levels with an M1 entry. It came up today on GBPUSD/EURUSD two or three times.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp h4 trend line.jpg Size: 99 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd daily.jpg Size: 106 KB
  • #9,945
  • Dec 27, 2010 10:45am Dec 27, 2010 10:45am
here are some indis off my charts

These have all been very helpful for finding areas of confluence.

the WSS is price under or over the 200 ema on different timeframes.

mouteki is demark trendlines.

the ATR levels I set to 5.

Happs is a masterpiece revealing the historical levels. Scroll back as far as you can on the chart on the monthly and put in the high and low for the pair. Also select none for the last three color selections in the indicator.

Happs Trading System is the thread. It has 8 pages.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp h4 monthly s1.jpg Size: 105 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 TriangularMA centered abands alerts 2.mq4   9 KB | 351 downloads
File Type: mq4 ATR Levels.mq4   6 KB | 306 downloads
File Type: ex4 Happs_Phases_v4.ex4   9 KB | 340 downloads
File Type: ex4 WSS.ex4   6 KB | 290 downloads
File Type: ex4 D-Mouteki v3[1][1].32 personal.ex4   62 KB | 331 downloads
  • #9,946
  • Dec 27, 2010 8:34pm Dec 27, 2010 8:34pm
Something I made way earlier but couldn't post as I just got back from the desk.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf BOOKIE 12-27-2010.pdf   241 KB | 462 downloads
  • #9,947
  • Dec 28, 2010 12:47am Dec 28, 2010 12:47am
I made a happs daily up with all the fibs too.


Happs combines price levels derived from the Historical Open, High, and Low, of a given pair, with phase levels derived from Fib ratios.

Happs is different from any other phase type system in the sense that it requires no new adjustments from the month to month. Its levels are static, unless a new historical high or low has been made in a pair. In this case, it would need to be recalculated.

Happs also combines concepts of Supply and Demand with S/R pivot trading into one system.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: happs daily eurusd with fibs.jpg Size: 184 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl happs daily eurusd.tpl   40 KB | 242 downloads
File Type: mq4 Magnified Market Price.mq4   1 KB | 268 downloads
  • #9,948
  • Dec 28, 2010 4:35am Dec 28, 2010 4:35am
Amys call on the Aussie.. 1.0195.. looking VERY well.. Go u good thing..
  • #9,949
  • Dec 29, 2010 3:41am Dec 29, 2010 3:41am
This is my only open trade.

I think it is the best one this week as I have entered on what Sam Seiden calls
a DROP BASED RALLY

HAPPS showed up a key area of confluence and I took the entry on the M15
where I have the red tick & entry label on the M15 chart.

Im holding this one up to the 1st fib fan on the daily if it goes there.

see how it goes. SL is just above break even now.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf daily.jpg Size: 107 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf happs 60 min.jpg Size: 134 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf 15 min entry.jpg Size: 96 KB
  • #9,950
  • Dec 29, 2010 4:15am Dec 29, 2010 4:15am
The blue 1hr trendline with the white trend line supporting underneath was also an important factor in taking this trade.

Also on the M1 I used TriangularMA centered abands from time frames M1 up to H4. They were very helpful to see the two extremes in price action.

Also notice the daily open line which is the white line about 15 pips up.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf 1 hr trendline entry.jpg Size: 116 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf m1 chat bands.jpg Size: 107 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 daily_open_line.ex4   2 KB | 266 downloads
  • #9,951
  • Dec 29, 2010 7:32am Dec 29, 2010 7:32am
Is this not an imbalance of buyers and sellers here on H4 ?

with the way price has moved away from this area strongly with these 4 hr bars off the 4 hr trendline.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf 4 hr.jpg Size: 101 KB
  • #9,952
  • Dec 29, 2010 11:21am Dec 29, 2010 11:21am
taking profits here on EURCHF.

GBPUSD & EURUSD had much better moves today.

Im moving on to USDCAD for longs.
  • #9,953
  • Dec 29, 2010 8:41pm Dec 29, 2010 8:41pm
Quoting danc
Amys call on the Aussie.. 1.0195.. looking VERY well.. Go u good thing..
MMMMMMM................................................I am out.. THANK you Amy..
  • #9,954
  • Dec 30, 2010 2:46am Dec 30, 2010 2:46am
I am holding my au longs, price has reached decembers level but it should go higher in the new year. I don't have any charts with me so cannot be accurate but I see 1.04?? as the next target higher. From here there could be a reversal of 140-160 pips first though.
  • #9,955
  • Dec 30, 2010 5:09am Dec 30, 2010 5:09am
here is a chart of AUDUSD.

awesome without your charts.

140-160 pips down lines up with 38 fib on H4.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 4 hr.jpg Size: 99 KB
  • #9,956
  • Dec 30, 2010 5:32am Dec 30, 2010 5:32am
USDCAD just needs to break this trendline on daily at 1.0010.

I got in yesterday a little early at 0.9999, but I think it is set to go.

.....................................................

EURUSD. Im waiting for a quick touch of this trend line on daily at 1.3272 but its struggling to get there.

Weekly R2 is at 1.3257 which may work out as a good short entry too.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad daily fibs.jpg Size: 112 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd daily fibs.jpg Size: 108 KB
  • #9,957
  • Dec 30, 2010 8:37am Dec 30, 2010 8:37am
Quoting amyc
I am holding my au longs, price has reached decembers level but it should go higher in the new year. I don't have any charts with me so cannot be accurate but I see 1.04?? as the next target higher. From here there could be a reversal of 140-160 pips first though.
HI amyc,
Nice calls on the Aussie. well done.
As for me I made 140 points on the way down and moved my SL to secure 100 pips which was hit. I haven't traded for the past week or so, waiting for the volumes to get back to normal.

Keep posting.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #9,958
  • Dec 30, 2010 10:04am Dec 30, 2010 10:04am
Sorry I made a mistake with the 4 hr 38 fib level on my post #9955.

Its 100 pips more down at 0.9944.

252 pips from the high level just reached of 1.0196
  • #9,959
  • Dec 30, 2010 3:58pm Dec 30, 2010 3:58pm
Quoting ianlikesgolf
Sorry I made a mistake with the 4 hr 38 fib level on my post #9955.

Its 100 pips more down at 0.9944.

252 pips from the high level just reached of 1.0196
Don't be sorry. Often my channel lines suck but the point is still conveyed. My crayons are broken and all over the floor.

You still make sense to me.
  • #9,960
  • Dec 30, 2010 9:57pm Dec 30, 2010 9:57pm
That is a cool picture you have there.

I was wondering if you were in the movies in your former life before forex. lol

been reading a few posts on your thread.

That daily trendline on EURUSD turned out to be a nice support line. -15 pips.

I missed the area of confluence by 45 pips.

USDCAD looks like its on holiday. Exited at break even for now and try again in the new year.

Saxon has it sorted . keep it simple stick to the majors.

I need to read the pdf another 10 times over.

EURUSD & GBPUSD both have had really nice moves off the daily 50 and 38 fibs in the last couple of days.
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