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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #9,741
  • Edited 5:36pm Dec 26, 2010 5:13pm | Edited 5:36pm
Quoting MktScape
Definitely, this thing can cause seizures as well !! ...not for traders with epileptic tendencies .

oh and BTW the first word that came to my mind whe i saw this chart was Yikes! it hurts.
eyes and pocket
  • #9,742
  • Dec 26, 2010 9:28pm Dec 26, 2010 9:28pm
Quoting Custos
I completely agree with you, except for one point: "There is nothing wrong with closing a partial position to bank some profits."
Let's say we got a 50% win loss ratio and always a 1:1 R:R, then if I would close partials earlier, I would lose in the long-term.

I would add to the sentence, there is nothing wrong with closing a partial position, as long as your expectancy is still positive and doesn't turn the strategy into a loser!

cheers
I agree, but I have no problem closing a partial position once I have room, lets say for example I have used chart pattern target, once the price has moved to the target area, I may close a partial move my stop to BE or maybe a few pips positive of that, and then let it run.

--NM
  • #9,743
  • Dec 26, 2010 11:15pm Dec 26, 2010 11:15pm
This is definitely a pair to watch!
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  • #9,744
  • Dec 27, 2010 12:18pm Dec 27, 2010 12:18pm
eurcad daily looks nice for a break to the downside.
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  • #9,745
  • Dec 27, 2010 5:36pm Dec 27, 2010 5:36pm
Hi, this is more a sideways move, with some downward trendiness at present.
And not the greatest time of year to be trading. But let's just see.......sml lot size as i make tentative steps into the world of trend trading. Wish me luck!
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  • #9,746
  • Dec 28, 2010 2:32am Dec 28, 2010 2:32am
Quoting Jungles
Hi, this is more a sideways move, with some downward trendiness at present.
And not the greatest time of year to be trading. But let's just see.......sml lot size as i make tentative steps into the world of trend trading. Wish me luck!
honestly, usdcad is my least favorite in the moment. If you look at the weekly. We are in a huge congestion area. Any trade within that congestion area will be low probability.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad w1 28.12.2010.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #9,747
  • Dec 28, 2010 3:25am Dec 28, 2010 3:25am
yes, Custos, i agree, its not the highest probability trade, but it may just reach my TP 1.0016, ........so far so good

Quoting Custos
honestly, usdcad is my least favorite in the moment. If you look at the weekly. We are in a huge congestion area. Any trade within that congestion area will be low probability.
  • #9,748
  • Dec 28, 2010 4:32am Dec 28, 2010 4:32am
Quoting Jungles
yes, Custos, i agree, its not the highest probability trade, but it may just reach my TP 1.0016, ........so far so good
well, I said it in my previous posts already. One trade means nothing in the great realm of trading.
If you have backtested your trades, when the overall market is in congestion and still have a positive expectancy over several thousands of trades. Then go ahead.

Otherwise you are going down a very unprofitable root with "oh, but this trade is different", "maybe this one reaches my target"...

Find rules that work consistently over the long haul and stick by them. One of my rules is not to trade in congested areas, because expectancy is too low when price is in congestion.
  • #9,749
  • Dec 28, 2010 5:37am Dec 28, 2010 5:37am
no worries Custos

i'll keep putting them up in 2011 for all to scrutinize


Quoting Custos
well, I said it in my previous posts already. One trade means nothing in the great realm of trading.
If you have backtested your trades, when the overall market is in congestion and still have a positive expectancy over several thousands of trades. Then go ahead.

Otherwise you are going down a very unprofitable root with "oh, but this trade is different", "maybe this one reaches my target"...

Find rules that work consistently over the long haul and stick by them. One of my rules is not to trade in congested areas, because expectancy is too...
  • #9,750
  • Dec 28, 2010 10:10am Dec 28, 2010 10:10am
today was a nicely volatile day. Profited from eur/cad & eur/chf
  • #9,751
  • Edited 1:30pm Dec 28, 2010 1:12pm | Edited 1:30pm
Hi, lets see how we go. I want to see that lower low just to the left of current price break = confidence, otherwise i may not have the trend change i think i see!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,752
  • Dec 28, 2010 4:52pm Dec 28, 2010 4:52pm
Quoting Jungles
Hi, lets see how we go. I want to see that lower low just to the left of current price break = confidence, otherwise i may not have the trend change i think i see!
sorry for me always interrupting your thoughts. But are you now calling counter-trend setups? Cause all I see is an uptrend since october 2008.

So, you think the trend since 2008 will change just from a couple of hours or days of going lower?

Just trying to provoke your thought processes.
  • #9,753
  • Dec 28, 2010 5:01pm Dec 28, 2010 5:01pm
here how I am messing with Demo
I would say that long G/U hurt my overall performance., I had R:R 2:1 but goal was 3:1 with take profit at 1.5550 and I did not move stop. was about 3% up at the top of the trade but lost more than 1%.
Generally the point of this exercise is to see how bigger than stop loss take profit influences overall performance even with many substandard entries.
Sometimes I had 5 trades opened same time. Never tried that before.

http://img839.imageshack.us/img839/5...singaround.png
  • #9,754
  • Dec 28, 2010 5:29pm Dec 28, 2010 5:29pm
Custos, i think our difference might be due to how i define "trend"

i am using pivots to define what i think the trend is right now

in the case of AUDCAD240, the chart attached to this post shows HHs and HLs = uptrend (blue)

followed by dbl tops and LLs (red) = possible trend change to the downside

* although i do not like the way price is drifting sideways here, this dimishes favourable probabilities; i would prefer price just get on with the job.........downwards

also, if i sqeeze up AUDCAD on the weekly TF, one might have a case for a downtrend; ie., we can easily change the perspective via switching TF, compressing charts etc, to suit our own bias.

for this reason, and for the time being, i am preferring to use pivots as they are right now, to define my trend

having said all that, my trend trading startegy is a work in progress


PS., my posts are delayed, so i cant answer in real time


Quoting Custos
sorry for me always interrupting your thoughts. But are you now calling counter-trend setups? Cause all I see is an uptrend since october 2008.

So, you think the trend since 2008 will change just from a couple of hours or days of going lower?

Just trying to provoke your thought processes.
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  • #9,755
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:37pm Dec 28, 2010 11:37pm
i'm interpreting cad crosses on 240 as leaning down at present, which supports my downward bias on this pair (chart below)

a little added risk trading this time of year i think, but smaller lot size offsets the added risk

* i've also got my eye on USDJPY240 which may set up for a short in time
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  • #9,756
  • Dec 29, 2010 2:08am Dec 29, 2010 2:08am
Quoting shiko
here how I am messing with Demo
I would say that long G/U hurt my overall performance., I had R:R 2:1 but goal was 3:1 with take profit at 1.5550 and I did not move stop. was about 3% up at the top of the trade but lost more than 1%.
Generally the point of this exercise is to see how bigger than stop loss take profit influences overall performance even with many substandard entries.
Sometimes I had 5 trades opened same time. Never tried that before.
interesting experiment. So in this exercise you try increasing your stop loss as well as take profit?
  • #9,757
  • Dec 29, 2010 2:15am Dec 29, 2010 2:15am
Quoting Jungles
also, if i sqeeze up AUDCAD on the weekly TF, one might have a case for a downtrend; ie., we can easily change the perspective via switching TF, compressing charts etc, to suit our own bias.
hm, okay, pivots are also a way of defining a trend.

What I am disagreeing with is the sentence above, which I marked in bold.

You should not compress charts or whatever to "suit" your bias. You should use multiple time-frames to "suit" reality. Not what you wish, but what is very likely. Now if the weekly is in an uptrend all the way down to the h4 or h1, then you have a really high probability that the uptrend will continue and you just need to find a good entry.
  • #9,758
  • Dec 29, 2010 2:19am Dec 29, 2010 2:19am
Quoting Jungles
i'm interpreting cad crosses on 240 as leaning down at present, which supports my downward bias on this pair (chart below)

a little added risk trading this time of year i think, but smaller lot size offsets the added risk

* i've also got my eye on USDJPY240 which may set up for a short in time
hm, from what I can see, the cad crosses are not correlated in the moment. You can see that on my attached picture.
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  • #9,759
  • Dec 29, 2010 2:21am Dec 29, 2010 2:21am
Quoting Jungles
* i've also got my eye on USDJPY240 which may set up for a short in time
hope you are seeing the support on monthly which usdjpy is banging against for the moment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy m1 29.12.2010.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #9,760
  • Dec 29, 2010 2:31am Dec 29, 2010 2:31am
yes i do MTF analysis with my core strategy, but am keen to test the viability of using only 240m to make my trend trade decisions

some would disagree with this, we'll see, and am happy to be wrong


Quoting Custos
Now if the weekly is in an uptrend all the way down to the h4 or h1, then you have a really high probability that the uptrend will continue and you just need to find a good entry.
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