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Dreamliners’ MPAS (Mechanical Price Action Strategy) System

  • #301
  • Dec 28, 2010 9:27am Dec 28, 2010 9:27am
Hi Crodzilla,

Yes, I am convinced it will work on any/all pairs. And we can even keep the range the same on all pairs, believe it or not due to the fact that we really have no edge here (at least that I can see).

I'm sticking with GBP/USD and EUR/USD for simplicity sake, but am planning on going to EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY and AUD/USD as soon as I can.

Quoting crodzilla
I like it... a small test on a live account (IBFX).

Worked like a charm on the AUDUSD 30pip range bars.
  • #302
  • Dec 28, 2010 9:59am Dec 28, 2010 9:59am
I have an EA that I built for constant range bars, using a similar strategy. But, if I remember correctly, I didn't define how far beyond the previous bar price had to go, and I opened a new trade at the open of a new bar, instead of opening a stop order for the open of the previous bar. It was barely profitable, not really enough to put any more time into. And, it didn't really have good MM.

So, your strategy seems very well thought out, and would seem to catch the reversal early.
  • #303
  • Dec 28, 2010 10:06am Dec 28, 2010 10:06am
Excellent thoughts, thank you very for your comments.

Quoting crodzilla
I have an EA that I built for constant range bars, using a similar strategy. But, if I remember correctly, I didn't define how far beyond the previous bar price had to go, and I opened a new trade at the open of a new bar, instead of opening a stop order for the open of the previous bar. It was barely profitable, not really enough to put any more time into. And, it didn't really have good MM.

So, your strategy seems very well thought out, and would seem to catch the reversal early.
  • #304
  • Dec 28, 2010 10:10am Dec 28, 2010 10:10am
I just did my first live trade on GBP/USD and was a loss for 27 pips including spread. Interesting to have 9 winners in a row in backtesting and the first live trade a loss. Continuing on...
  • #305
  • Dec 28, 2010 10:11am Dec 28, 2010 10:11am
got range bar to work and placed a sell stop it hit then hit tp 20 pips in a few minutes
timing is everything LOL
  • #306
  • Dec 28, 2010 10:13am Dec 28, 2010 10:13am
Good for you! I'll have to learn from you!

Quoting dryclean
got range bar to work and placed a sell stop it hit then hit tp 20 pips in a few minutes
timing is everything LOL
  • #307
  • Dec 28, 2010 10:13am Dec 28, 2010 10:13am
EUR/USD hit 27 pip target (middle chart)
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  • #308
  • Dec 28, 2010 10:18am Dec 28, 2010 10:18am
Quoting Dreamliner
Good for you! I'll have to learn from you!
even a blind squril finds the nut

I wonder if there is a script file that can place a buy and sell stop 10 pips from market with the TP 20 and Sl 10 in it
I'll look in my bag of tricks for it not sure I have it
  • #309
  • Dec 28, 2010 10:23am Dec 28, 2010 10:23am
Just gave it all back on a buy stop LOL

see I told ya don't follow my lead
  • #310
  • Edited 5:51pm Dec 28, 2010 10:43am | Edited 5:51pm
This time going for the reversal

Update Stopped Out - 19 pips
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  • #311
  • Dec 28, 2010 10:57am Dec 28, 2010 10:57am
3 winners today -- I was off the pc for a few hrs my last trade hit tp -- I am looking at the current bar -- to trade ok sell trigger activate 15468 look so sell at 15648
PROFITABLE TRADERS ARE NOT LUCKY BUT ARE WELL PREPARED
  • #312
  • Dec 28, 2010 12:00pm Dec 28, 2010 12:00pm
my rules is a little different than DL

I posted before anyways ---
here you go

from open price 20 above or below is trigger line not exceed 30 pips

sl is 30 pips plus spread no trade if exceed 30 pips

tp on the closing of the bar
PROFITABLE TRADERS ARE NOT LUCKY BUT ARE WELL PREPARED
  • #313
  • Dec 28, 2010 12:01pm Dec 28, 2010 12:01pm
last bar not trade - exceed 30 pips
PROFITABLE TRADERS ARE NOT LUCKY BUT ARE WELL PREPARED
  • #314
  • Dec 28, 2010 1:17pm Dec 28, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting zamanib
the last 3 bars - 2 of them winners -- the other no trade
the current bar may be a possible trade sell tigger happen already now waiting to go shot one price come to 15459

yes i set my sl 30 pips plus 4 for spread -- i try to enter on the exact price -- if i set pending to enter to buy -- then i will add the spread
Hi Zamanib...

The second trade if you took the trade with the current bar low as the SL you would have hit SL.. but with the LOW - a few pips buffer for SL it would be a W ... your 30 pip SL here came through.

I'm thinking of taking TP such that I get 2:1 R:R ratio... so don't close at bar end but when your 2:1 ratio plays out. Win % might take a hit but you don't even need 50% win rate to be positive here.

Dreamliner... was this the trade you got hit with SL? I bet your SL was hunt down lol
  • #315
  • Dec 28, 2010 1:30pm Dec 28, 2010 1:30pm
Quoting sidhujag
Hi Zamanib...

The second trade if you took the trade with the current bar low as the SL you would have hit SL.. but with the LOW - a few pips buffer for SL it would be a W ... your 30 pip SL here came through.

I'm thinking of taking TP such that I get 2:1 R:R ratio... so don't close at bar end but when your 2:1 ratio plays out. Win % might take a hit but you don't even need 50% win rate to be positive here.

Dreamliner... was this the trade you got hit with SL? I bet your SL was hunt down lol
I will not do anymore - back test and will only trade live -- this will be my foward testing - I am convince with the few back test I did .
this a profitable system more win than loss -- I dont care about win loss ratio on one single bar -- my sl is 30 plus sprd pips my tp to from 20 --30 pips depend on the high or low
PROFITABLE TRADERS ARE NOT LUCKY BUT ARE WELL PREPARED
  • #316
  • Dec 28, 2010 2:31pm Dec 28, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting zamanib
I will not do anymore - back test and will only trade live -- this will be my foward testing - I am convince with the few back test I did .
this a profitable system more win than loss -- I dont care about win loss ratio on one single bar -- my sl is 30 plus sprd pips my tp to from 20 --30 pips depend on the high or low
What do you mean win loss on a single bar? You have to average this over time.

With your set up I think you would need 75% win rate to be profitable.

Your SL is say 31 pips and TP is say 19-29 pips. Best case is 31/29 you need about 57% win rate to BE.. worsed case is 31/19 (need 88% win rate to BE).. average 72.5% just to BE...

If you don't look at this you will be wasting time.

I think its a good idea to find a way to test the system and optimize based on strategy and input parameters.
  • #317
  • Dec 28, 2010 2:38pm Dec 28, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting zamanib
my rules is a little different than DL

I posted before anyways ---
here you go

from open price 20 above or below is trigger line not exceed 30 pips

sl is 30 pips plus spread no trade if exceed 30 pips

tp on the closing of the bar
So you are looking for candles that will end up having a wick of between 20-30 pips but no more than 30 correct?
  • #318
  • Dec 28, 2010 3:02pm Dec 28, 2010 3:02pm
So current bar on EU 50 Pip Range would be a Trade Bar presuming the low of this bar does not go down more?
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  • #319
  • Dec 28, 2010 3:42pm Dec 28, 2010 3:42pm
Musashi, I can't see any numbers on that chart so it is hard to tell just by eyeballing it. If it has dropped between 20-30 you would set a buy stop at the open.

Zam do you use a flat 30 pips stop loss on all trades, or do you adjust based upon how many pips to entry that you got in the trade at?

Quoting Musashi
So current bar on EU 50 Pip Range would be a Trade Bar presuming the low of this bar does not go down more?
  • #320
  • Dec 28, 2010 3:51pm Dec 28, 2010 3:51pm
Quoting Dreamliner
Musashi, I can't see any numbers on that chart so it is hard to tell just by eyeballing it. If it has dropped between 20-30 you would set a buy stop at the open.

Zam do you use a flat 30 pips stop loss on all trades, or do you adjust based upon how many pips to entry that you got in the trade at?
Yes it has the bottom indicator is the Wick Measuring Indicator which has horizontal lines on it at ranges of 20 to 30 and -20 to -30

Doing a quick visual backtest it appears that there's potential for a winning system here. However it is difficult to know what the price action is in each of those bars to really determine profitability.

However just looking at those particular bars it appears most of them are winning trades.

However I see quite a few bars where the pip range of the wick is bigger than 30 Pips and it's difficult to know if price gets you into a trade then reverses past your stop and then closes in the direction of the initial trade.
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