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'Vegas Wealth Builder Part II'

  • #301
  • Feb 13, 2006 1:36pm Feb 13, 2006 1:36pm
Quoting Jure
Hi all!

The VWB2 document inspired me to play a bit with statistics ...

So, for starters, I made an indicator showing price distribution around the daily EMA. The picture shows a closing price distribution around EMA-24 on the daily chart.

Well, it's interesting, and I'm not really sure how to interpret it, other than: price tends to stay away from the EMA (?). Also, the distribution pattern is very much the same across different pairs. The dip in the pattern is probably caused by the subtraction of moving average from the price. Any ideas/comments?

p.s.: I hope this isn't too off-topic ...

Hello Jure: Great Indicator you have created, is this indicador for M4? do you mind sharing it with the group? Thanls a lot.
GS
  • #302
  • Feb 13, 2006 2:57pm Feb 13, 2006 2:57pm
diallist: A great analogy, thanks!

Mx_Power: Sure, just let me clean it up a bit . And, yes, it's for MT4.
  • #303
  • Feb 13, 2006 9:46pm Feb 13, 2006 9:46pm
Hi Jure... Nice Picture !
I'm not sure that I agree with your thesis.
If you made each step the same (eg 40 pips wide) then the results would be very interesting. I for one would like to see that distribution.
Well done, anyway.
rjb
  • #304
  • Feb 14, 2006 7:52am Feb 14, 2006 7:52am
Where has Mr Vegas been lately?

I am standing by and watching for entry on the GBPUSD. May happen within the next 48 hours. Its at the 3 fib again.
  • #305
  • Feb 14, 2006 9:11am Feb 14, 2006 9:11am
165 pip run in 8 hrs, that looks like momentum.
from 1.7445 to 1.7290 since Asian open looks like rules 1 and 2 of VWB II have been met so I am waiting with a buystop at the 50%(plus 5 pips) retacement of
1.7368.
I know there is a 75% chance since it has passed 47 pips it won't return but,I would hate to miss the entry cause I am not at the computer.
  • #306
  • Feb 14, 2006 10:26am Feb 14, 2006 10:26am
Quoting rjb1024
Hi Jure... Nice Picture !
I'm not sure that I agree with your thesis.
If you made each step the same (eg 40 pips wide) then the results would be very interesting. I for one would like to see that distribution.
Well done, anyway.
rjb
You're right ! The bars are more likely to close inside ranges that are wider. That's the reason for the dip in the the distribution if fib levels are used. Here's a picture with even ranges (50 pips apart):
Attached Image
  • #307
  • Feb 14, 2006 10:29am Feb 14, 2006 10:29am
Quoting xspowerx
Where has Mr Vegas been lately?

I am standing by and watching for entry on the GBPUSD. May happen within the next 48 hours. Its at the 3 fib again.
Patience, patience my friend...and you'll be rewarded.
I'm also watching swissy..
  • #308
  • Feb 14, 2006 10:39am Feb 14, 2006 10:39am
we are all most at the entry 3rd rule is forming right now.
  • #309
  • Feb 14, 2006 10:41am Feb 14, 2006 10:41am
A reversal forming at the 3rd FIB if anyone else watches this one!!!
Entry at 204.00 for a 50% + 5 pips reversal!!!
  • #310
  • Feb 14, 2006 10:54am Feb 14, 2006 10:54am
Quoting zenophyte
A reversal forming at the 3rd FIB if anyone else watches this one!!!
Entry at 204.00 for a 50% + 5 pips reversal!!!
Watching too GBP/USD GBP/JPY.

Can you post when you jump
  • #311
  • Feb 14, 2006 11:09am Feb 14, 2006 11:09am
to Jure
Hi, you would to lay out the indicator for MT
  • #312
  • Feb 14, 2006 11:20am Feb 14, 2006 11:20am
Quoting zenophyte
A reversal forming at the 3rd FIB if anyone else watches this one!!!
Entry at 204.00 for a 50% + 5 pips reversal!!!
I do. This pair is very volatile. It might hit 202 or lower before reversal, so be careful with your entry.
  • #313
  • Feb 14, 2006 12:21pm Feb 14, 2006 12:21pm
Quoting zenophyte
A reversal forming at the 3rd FIB if anyone else watches this one!!!
Entry at 204.00 for a 50% + 5 pips reversal!!!
I'm just wondering what model you are using for this pair?
If it is not broken, fix it until it is!
  • #314
  • Edited 12:38pm Feb 14, 2006 12:36pm | Edited 12:38pm
Hi all,

I followed the instructions in VWBII and downloaded the StrategyBuilder version of MT4. However, The S&P500 chart (as well as the other futures charts) are no where to be found. I just have the Forex charts. Am I missing something? Do I need to download a plugin of some sort?

Thanks!
  • #315
  • Feb 14, 2006 12:49pm Feb 14, 2006 12:49pm
Hello erikcw,

If you open the 'Market watch' side panel, place your curser inside the panel and then right click, select 'show all' the other instuments should be displayed. Hope this helps.

Oh..and while I'm writing my first post here..Thank you Vegas, what can I say. Enlightening stuff.
  • #316
  • Feb 14, 2006 12:51pm Feb 14, 2006 12:51pm
Im keeping a strong eye on the swissy and GBP right now. Inless we see strong spikes in opposite directions I'm gonna sit on the sidelines.

Or.. if I see the cross of the 50 and a reveral signal on the daily.
  • #317
  • Feb 14, 2006 12:57pm Feb 14, 2006 12:57pm
Quoting Neilg36
Hello erikcw,

If you open the 'Market watch' side panel, place your curser inside the panel and then right click, select 'show all' the other instuments should be displayed. Hope this helps.

Oh..and while I'm writing my first post here..Thank you Vegas, what can I say. Enlightening stuff.
That did the trick! Thanks!
  • #318
  • Feb 14, 2006 1:52pm Feb 14, 2006 1:52pm
Everyone,
I'm gone for the weekend and then Monday, back today, and I got 327 new posts. Whoa!!

Wow, you guys were busy in the last 48 hours. I see there is a new thread. I will wade through it this evening and check it out.

While I was gone, I got an interesting email from someone who asked why I wasn't daytrading and scalping anymore. After all, I spent many years on the floor and why stop doing something that made a ton of money. "Are you nuts"? he asked.

Here is my response.

The currency markets aren't what they were 20 years ago. You don't get the intraday volatility you used to get. Every once in a while, of course, you do but it's not something you see on a regular daily basis. If you get caught on the wrong side of a daytrade now, volatility will not bail you out on your trade, giving you the ability to flip your position and make money. More than likely, it's a one-way street with no retracements. When the retracement comes, you don't want the trade.

You have to adapt or you will be forced out of the game. The game has changed totally in the years since trading currencies started. Strategies that once worked in the short-term are no longer applicable if you want to make consistent money. It's like black-jack in Las Vegas. You can't play single-deck and think by counting the cards you will win.
vegas
  • #319
  • Feb 14, 2006 2:12pm Feb 14, 2006 2:12pm
Quoting vegas
Everyone,
I'm gone for the weekend and then Monday, back today, and I got 327 new posts. Whoa!!

Wow, you guys were busy in the last 48 hours. I see there is a new thread. I will wade through it this evening and check it out.

While I was gone, I got an interesting email from someone who asked why I wasn't daytrading and scalping anymore. After all, I spent many years on the floor and why stop doing something that made a ton of money. "Are you nuts"? he asked.

Here is my response.

The currency markets aren't what they were 20 years ago. You don't get the intraday volatility you used to get. Every once in a while, of course, you do but it's not something you see on a regular daily basis. If you get caught on the wrong side of a daytrade now, volatility will not bail you out on your trade, giving you the ability to flip your position and make money. More than likely, it's a one-way street with no retracements. When the retracement comes, you don't want the trade.

You have to adapt or you will be forced out of the game. The game has changed totally in the years since trading currencies started. Strategies that once worked in the short-term are no longer applicable if you want to make consistent money. It's like black-jack in Las Vegas. You can't play single-deck and think by counting the cards you will win.
Welcome back...

327 posts you can always read those later, besides you will just get new ones anyway.

Does the current gbpusd look like an entry?

It has met all the conditons on the 1 hr except I dont see much on the daily to indicate a big reversal
  • #320
  • Feb 14, 2006 2:18pm Feb 14, 2006 2:18pm
Quoting lambrechtj
Welcome back...

327 posts you can always read those later, besides you will just get new ones anyway.

Does the current gbpusd look like an entry?

It has met all the conditons on the 1 hr except I dont see much on the daily to indicate a big reversal
lambrecht,
I can't comment on specific trades because it's not fair to all the people who subscribe through C2. I may comment after a trade has taken place, or after a position is closed.
vegas
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