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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #9,701
  • Dec 25, 2010 7:23am Dec 25, 2010 7:23am
Here is another long term chart, the USDJPY Monthly has also formed a double bottom....just thought I would post the chart in case anyone has not seen it.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ-Monthly.png Size: 32 KB
  • #9,702
  • Dec 25, 2010 7:45am Dec 25, 2010 7:45am
Huge number of good set ups. especially Eur/Jpy and Gbp/Jpy. I am short E/J and if it moves further low I am looking to add to short position. Also G/J is looking good for short.
  • #9,703
  • Dec 25, 2010 7:48am Dec 25, 2010 7:48am
Quoting MktScape
NICE COLORS NM.

Well come back Buddy and Merry Christmas to you and your family!
  • #9,704
  • Dec 25, 2010 7:53am Dec 25, 2010 7:53am
Quoting shiko
Huge number of good set ups. especially Eur/Jpy and Gbp/Jpy. I am short E/J and if it moves further low I am looking to add to short position. Also G/J is looking good for short.
Yes it looks like there is a nu mber of good setups in the making right now. Some on the long term and some on the short term.

--NM
  • #9,705
  • Dec 25, 2010 7:59am Dec 25, 2010 7:59am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej daily.gif Size: 78 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej 4h.gif Size: 78 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj daily.gif Size: 79 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 4h.gif Size: 76 KB



I am thinking of moving my take profit further down a little bit and looking for new trade on same pair by using part of profit if I have any. Excellent set ups actually. It is both set ups according to NM and James16 on daily and 4H, so many signals say go short.
It is: 1. break of retracement lines according to NM, 2. Inside bars according to J16, 3. for GJ it is also identical lows on 4H with lower close on second bar.
  • #9,706
  • Dec 25, 2010 7:59am Dec 25, 2010 7:59am
Quoting shiko
Huge number of good set ups. especially Eur/Jpy and Gbp/Jpy. I am short E/J and if it moves further low I am looking to add to short position. Also G/J is looking good for short.
Right now I have no open trades, I closed them all down until after the 1st. Then I will be back in the game again.

--NM
  • #9,707
  • Dec 25, 2010 8:03am Dec 25, 2010 8:03am
I am only demo trading now. practicing till January 3. The only thing I am not sure how this will move during Holiday season. So far, E/J trade I am staying more than a day and it is barely moving. But I sense that some bigger move coming.

Check this old Russian Winny the Puh cartoon

Inserted Video


Winny is a wise guy despite not having real brain


I like when he says: "this buzz here is for a reason, and why to buzz if you are not a bee".

I also think that this slow move down is going to get much bigger.
  • #9,708
  • Dec 25, 2010 8:06am Dec 25, 2010 8:06am
Quoting NightMoves
Right now I have no open trades, I closed them all down until after the 1st. Then I will be back in the game again.

--NM

I agree with you on not having real money opened trade at this time. I am also out till January 3, but I am still demoing. lost short GJ and won long AU. now, I am looking for this EJ winner, cross fingers and GJ looks sweet, it can atleast test previous lows.
  • #9,709
  • Dec 25, 2010 8:11am Dec 25, 2010 8:11am
Guys you have been at this for much longer.
What I noticed it is really hard to make say 50% annual return. I would not say it is hard to make 5-6% monthly, but overall to make it 50%+ annual return there must be practically no losing months.
Say you make 5 months each month 6%, ok, nice, then lose one month say same 6%, not nice. It was =30% before losing month. now, one more month to bring account back, it is 7 months and still 30% up. now again 3 winning months +6%, we are 48% up, and then loser -6%. and then winner +6% and we have 12 months with all but 2 months winners and still we are short of the target. Time lost on trading back losses doe snot let to get higher without ioncreasing risk which is dangerous.
I wonder how many guys do not have losing months at all. Or another solution is to have oversized winning months from time to time.
  • #9,710
  • Dec 25, 2010 8:23am Dec 25, 2010 8:23am
Quoting shiko
Guys you have been at this for much longer.
What I noticed it is really hard to make say 50% annual return. I would not say it is hard to make 5-6% monthly, but overall to make it 50%+ annual return there must be practically no losing months.
Say you make 5 months each month 6%, ok, nice, then lose one month say same 6%, not nice. It was =30% before losing month. now, one more month to bring account back, it is 7 months and still 30% up. now again 3 winning months +6%, we are 48% up, and then loser -6%. and then winner +6% and we have 12...
Well to be honest, trading is difficult, I guess of it were easy everyone would be doing it, but the way to bringing your returns up and I know I have said this before, but here it goes again:

Create a trade plan using a method that is as solid as can be, follow only the rules of that game plan and dont make up the rules as you go.

By implenting the rules and keeping track of your trades you can look back on each trade and make a determination what went wrong, and 9 times out of 10 it will be because a person did not follow the rules of the plan.

The biggest error that shows up in my log was either entering too early or closing to quickly, over a course of time after I was able to coorelate all that data it was clear what the issue was.

It is really has nothing to do with winning more than losing it has to do with following the plan and only risking a certain amount and dont take trades that will not give you at least 1:5:1 reward ratio, I know everyone thinks they are following the plan and so did I until I starting logging my trades and charting progress, and charting errors what really opened my eyes as to what was wrong, it was not the method... it was not following the plan of the method.

--NM
  • #9,711
  • Dec 25, 2010 8:30am Dec 25, 2010 8:30am
Quoting Custos
your eur/usd trendline doesn't make any sense to me. You just picked the most recent low. But how do you know that really is a low?
Attached is how I have drawn mine. We are already below the trendline and the bias is already down.
I am not even thinking about a long at this point. Has to go above my black rectangle before I am thinking about going long again.

I would say it is good to stay away for now. It can go either way. Had pin bar up and now right eye has formed. still under trend line but also might have higher low. Who knows where it is going
  • #9,712
  • Dec 25, 2010 8:39am Dec 25, 2010 8:39am
Quoting NightMoves
Well to be honest, trading is difficult, I guess of it were easy everyone would be doing it, but the way to bringing your returns up and I know I have said this before, but here it goes again:

Create a trade plan using a method that is as solid as can be, follow only the rules of that game plan and dont make up the rules as you go.

By implenting the rules and keeping track of your trades you can look back on each trade and make a determination what went wrong, and 9 times out of 10 it will be because a person did not follow the rules of the...


NM, what R:R you mean? what is 1:1:5? You mean at least looking for say risking 1% to get at least 1.5%?

I am actually following the plan. But my confusion mostly lies in trade management. When to take profit. I usually set targets around some S/R round numbers areas.
  • #9,713
  • Dec 25, 2010 8:39am Dec 25, 2010 8:39am
I am also not very analytical type. I am more of pull the trigger type.
  • #9,714
  • Dec 25, 2010 8:55am Dec 25, 2010 8:55am
Quoting shiko
NM, what R:R you mean? what is 1:1:5? You mean at least looking for say risking 1% to get at least 1.5%?

I am actually following the plan. But my confusion mostly lies in trade management. When to take profit. I usually set targets around some S/R round numbers areas.
I try to look for trades that will yield at least 1.5% not in dollars but in pips, if the S/R levels look like they will not allow that I will pass on the trade, even though it could manage a few pips. The reason is I want to train myself to take only those trades that are in my opinion not a waste of time or money.

I am a very consrvative trader as you know, I mean the trend has to look a certain way it cant be spiking all different directions ....etc, and of course the reversal patterns have to be there at the key areas, sure I may miss a lot of trades but I am quite confident in the trades I do enter.

I limit my risk to 2% of my account at any given time, I never risk the whole 2% on one trade, although there is probabaly nothing wrong with that I just dont.

I try to trade the longer time frames although sometimes I will trade the shorter ones too if it looks good. But Money management is a big thing with me, I look at ratios and try to keep them in perspective.

I try to let the profits run and cut the losses short, meaning just that if the market is going your way and you are in profits, unlike many people they start adding to there position which is ok I guess if your comfortable with that, however if the market goes against you at that point your losses become larger as well, if you set targets there is a reason, its because you saw where the market could change directions or for any number of reasons I suppose.

The martingale system can make you alot of money ( adding to your position at different intervals) however it can damage what could have been a good trade if things start to go against you in a hurry.

But everyone has thier own way of MM, I do set targets I may not always close out entirely that those targets but rather start taking profits at those targets and then let the market do its thing some more and hopefully keep going in the right direction.

The main thing is really never move your stop unless it is in the direction of profits. There is nothing wrong with closing a partial position to bank some profits, its difficult to get rich on one trade it takes many trades, kind of like eating an elephant, take one bite at a time and sooner or later you will finish it.

--NM
  • #9,715
  • Dec 25, 2010 9:04am Dec 25, 2010 9:04am
Quoting shiko
I am also not very analytical type. I am more of pull the trigger type.
Well really you think you are not the analytical type, but really what are doing when to take a trade? You looked at what happened in the past, you look for S/R areas, you are essentially analyzing the market to base your trade on. SO really you have more analytical stuff going on than you realize, see now you learned something about yourself...you are the analytical type you just did not know it...

--NM
  • #9,716
  • Dec 25, 2010 9:30am Dec 25, 2010 9:30am
Quoting NightMoves
I try to look for trades that will yield at least 1.5% not in dollars but in pips, if the S/R levels look like they will not allow that I will pass on the trade, even though it could manage a few pips. The reason is I want to train myself to take only those trades that are in my opinion not a waste of time or money....

Yes, I got it. On demo I am taking trades with risk reward also no less than 1.5% in pips obviously. targets are 1:1.5 to 1:2. so far it is going up. Now let's see where EJ goes, my profit target is around 10.8.00 it will consitutute something 1.75:1 r;r.
  • #9,717
  • Dec 25, 2010 9:31am Dec 25, 2010 9:31am
Quoting NightMoves
Well really you think you are not the analytical type, but really what are doing when to take a trade? You looked at what happened in the past, you look for S/R areas, you are essentially analyzing the market to base your trade on. SO really you have more analytical stuff going on than you realize, see now you learned something about yourself...you are the analytical type you just did not know it...

--NM
I guess you are right, still, I never heistate and happy to pull trigger. I simply leave limit/ stop orders running during London session and go to work. come back home to see some stops hit, some profit taken and some still in trade. I usually close those . It is funny how profit are taken as I would have closed those trades earlier.
  • #9,718
  • Dec 25, 2010 12:37pm Dec 25, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting Custos
your eur/usd trendline doesn't make any sense to me. You just picked the most recent low. But how do you know that really is a low?
Attached is how I have drawn mine. We are already below the trendline and the bias is already down.
I am not even thinking about a long at this point. Has to go above my black rectangle before I am thinking about going long again.
Custos,
The TL touching the low of the hammer .... wouldn't that low can alsonqualify as a swing low as there are two higher lows on either side of it?. The TL you have drawn is defnintely the main counter TL.

With respect to going long .... i mean it is still wait and see at this point as there will be bottoming out formation (1-2-3 type or rounded bottom) before it actually reverses. Also the current test of the pinbar low could fail as well and price could continue downward movement further.

As of now it appears that selling pressure is subsiding due to the narrow range and above average vol activity stuffed into this NR. however it could just be due to low trading volume due to holidays and may pickup again.

Cheers
  • #9,719
  • Dec 25, 2010 1:03pm Dec 25, 2010 1:03pm
Quoting NightMoves
Here is another long term chart, the USDJPY Monthly has also formed a double bottom....just thought I would post the chart in case anyone has not seen it.

--NM
Hi NM,
Here are my additional comments on how i am reading the market as of now. Lets see if our analysis / perspective come close.

I would welcome further dicussion how other see this as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYWeekly.jpg Size: 133 KB
  • #9,720
  • Edited 2:23pm Dec 25, 2010 2:05pm | Edited 2:23pm
Quoting shiko
Guys you have been at this for much longer.
What I noticed it is really hard to make say 50% annual return. I would not say it is hard to make 5-6% monthly, but overall to make it 50%+ annual return there must be practically no losing months.
Say you make 5 months each month 6%, ok, nice, then lose one month say same 6%, not nice. It was =30% before losing month. now, one more month to bring account back, it is 7 months and still 30% up. now again 3 winning months +6%, we are 48% up, and then loser -6%....
Yeah, that is a major problem. What you have to do is to sit tight when markets are not performing as they are supposed to, meaning: if they are not clearly trending: do not trade, if they just reached a S/R level against the trend: do not trade, if it doesn't have a good R:R: do not trade...
That is how we can at least decrease our losses. It won't amplify the winners, but just cut the losses. And I think that is even more important than increasing winners. Cause if you can cut the losses, you will still have enough position size left, when the winning months start again.

Also your calculation is not totally correct.
If you lose 6% one month for example: 100-(100*0.06) =94 and win 6% next month, which is then 94+(94*0.06)= 99.64 , you won't be at the 100 you started at. So, if you have a losing month, it's even harder to get back where you were.
Thus it is important to avoid the losing months.
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