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Dreamliners’ MPAS (Mechanical Price Action Strategy) System

  • #61
  • Dec 24, 2010 7:47pm Dec 24, 2010 7:47pm
Glad you see the benefit of it, thanks for the encouraging words.

Have a very merry Christmas!

Quoting brijon
realy great stuff mate it so happens it fits in perfect with my thread great work a dream

i understand why my question was so stupid but once isaw the video i understood looks a superb tool your idea is super cool

what you have descibed is a perfect fractal use using 10 pips

understanding best entry time of day will help i think

but great work with those negative idiots block them out

a very very merry xmas

thank you once again

from Brian
  • #62
  • Dec 24, 2010 10:36pm Dec 24, 2010 10:36pm
Quoting Dreamliner
I know Metatrader has a built in notification for certain price levels, however I have never been able to make it go to my cell-phone, not even on an email address I have set up on my cell phone (not to mention SMS which Metatrader does not seem to do). So I have looked all over the Internet for a price-level alerting system. For awhile I was using Alert FX but they are now out of business (though they have told me that they are going to be starting a subscription based service soon).

I have found a service that works very well; it connects...
Thanks dreamliner succes with the thread
  • #63
  • Dec 24, 2010 11:11pm Dec 24, 2010 11:11pm
I have been thinking about going to a 50 pip range bar and at the open of the new bar setting my alerts at 20 pips above and below the open. If triggered we would have a 20 pip stop and a 30 pip target.

The reason I am considering this is because it does not take much for GBP/USD to move 10 pips either way in a 30 pip range bar. But it takes quite a bit for it to move double that, and then back to the open, then another 30 pips the other way in a 50 pip range bar.

My plan is to do 20 live trades with the original method of 30 pip range bars (with 10 pip stop and 20 pip target), and then 20 live trades with 50 pip range bars (with 20 pip stop and 30 pip target) and compare the difference.

I'm sure there will be some tweaking that needs to happen beyond this even.
  • #64
  • Dec 24, 2010 11:22pm Dec 24, 2010 11:22pm
I think its a good investigation to try to find a suitable pip interval that each pair reacts.. like EU does to ~30 right now... I found using ATR H1 500 mimicks this with EU (gives you 29)... and gives about 27 for GU... you can double it to get 54 and would have a better reactive bar I think.
  • #65
  • Dec 24, 2010 11:27pm Dec 24, 2010 11:27pm
When you say "double it and still have the same effect" do you mean we could double from 34 to 68 and still have the same effect? If so that would make 50 pip range bars perfect.

Though 50 pip range bars (with 30 target and 20 stop) does not have quite as good of R:R as the 30 range bars do (with 20 target and 10 stop) I do believe the hit rate would be better. Would you agree?

Quoting sidhujag
I think its a good investigation to try to find a suitable pip interval that each pair reacts.. like EU does to 30 right now... I found using ATR H1 500 mimicks this with EU... and gives about 34 for GU... you can double it and still have the same effect.
  • #66
  • Dec 24, 2010 11:56pm Dec 24, 2010 11:56pm
Haha I edited my post... I was adding in spreadx2 to it but you probably shouldn't since price wouldn't react the same... Well I thought the idea was to trade with 1/3 bar SL and 2/3 TP... thats 2:1 but just needs to move more also has more room to move.. we just need to ensure that we find a bar range that "reacts" with the pair and not just random number (to increase expectancy)

This number can be always changing and so would SL/TP.. with 30 pip bars your SL was 10 pip (1/3 * 30) and TP was 20 (2/3 * 30).. you get out at the end of each bar. Which makes sense because it matches the profitable trades that you saw when you visually back-tested the range bar indi. Maybe 30 is the magic number... but I hate magic number I always want to find reason which is why I curve fitted the ATR to get 30 pips on EU (this is what Malcolm told me... 30 pips movement at a time on EU)

Jag
  • #67
  • Dec 25, 2010 12:01am Dec 25, 2010 12:01am
Hi Jag,

Thanks for your helpful comments. My only concern about the 30 pip range bar as opposed to the 50 pip range bar is the hit rate. Granted 30 range bar has a better R:R but the 50 would most assuredly have a better hit rate. I suppose it is a trade off both ways.

Quoting sidhujag
Haha I edited my post... I was adding in spreadx2 to it but you probably shouldn't since price wouldn't react the same... Well I thought the idea was to trade with 1/3 bar SL and 2/3 TP... thats 2:1 but just needs to move more also has more room to move.. we just need to ensure that we find a bar range that "reacts" with the pair and not just random number (to increase expectancy)

This number can be always changing and so would SL/TP.. with 30 pip bars your SL was 10 pip (1/3 * 30) and TP was 20 (2/3 * 30).. you get out at the end of each bar....
  • #68
  • Dec 25, 2010 12:07am Dec 25, 2010 12:07am
Quoting Dreamliner
Hi Jag,

Thanks for your helpful comments. My only concern about the 30 pip range bar as opposed to the 50 pip range bar is the hit rate. Granted 30 range bar has a better R:R but the 50 would most assuredly have a better hit rate. I suppose it is a trade off both ways.
Yup you know what would be cool is if we can optimize this with range bars and SL/TP as inputs.. and whatever equity measuring stick as the output. You said Mt4 backtester wouldn't work right?

The R:R is the same with any sized range bars... expectancy might change though depends on how "good" the bar size is for that pair.
  • #69
  • Dec 25, 2010 12:18am Dec 25, 2010 12:18am
Now THAT would really be good! I do not know if MT4 backtester works or not, as I'm no good at using it. If anyone can figure out any way to backtest this it would help.

Quoting sidhujag
Yup you know what would be cool is if we can optimize this with range bars and SL/TP as inputs.. and whatever equity measuring stick as the output. You said Mt4 backtester wouldn't work right?

The R:R is the same with any sized range bars... expectancy might change though depends on how "good" the bar size is for that pair.
  • #70
  • Dec 25, 2010 12:19am Dec 25, 2010 12:19am
It is hard so on a range bar what going -- it hard to tell if price touch the entry and then went down back --- bit if you put up a 5mins regular chart you will see it clearly it did not touch the entry-- ( we see the buy is trigger now - because it reach below 10 pips from open waiting to go long - but price did not touch the open price yet since it went down to the trigger line

I hope this make sense and will help you to physically see what price is doing

I am speak about the last bar on the rangebar chart
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PROFITABLE TRADERS ARE NOT LUCKY BUT ARE WELL PREPARED
  • #71
  • Dec 25, 2010 12:24am Dec 25, 2010 12:24am
That's fine, I did not trade the last bar, I only traded one bar today, and that was profitable.

Quoting zamanib
It is hard so on a range bar what going -- it hard to tell if price touch the entry and then went down back --- bit if you put up a 5mins regular chart you will see it clearly it did not touch the entry-- ( we see the buy is trigger now - because it reach below 10 pips from open waiting to go long - but price did not touch the open price yet since it went down to the trigger line

I hope this make sense and will help you to physically see what price is doing

I am speak about the last bar on the rangebar chart
  • #72
  • Dec 25, 2010 1:53am Dec 25, 2010 1:53am
Quoting Dreamliner
Now THAT would really be good! I do not know if MT4 backtester works or not, as I'm no good at using it. If anyone can figure out any way to backtest this it would help.
- I use a custom-built simulator that deals with range bars just fine. I'll run some tests when I get a chance.

- If you set the TP to be the close of the current bar, the absolute best you can do is a 2:1 RR ratio (before spread). This would be a perfect trade where the price moved exactly 10 pips in one direction from the bar open, then immediately moved back in the opposite direction to the bar open to trigger your trade, and then continued in the same direction until bar end. That is 20 pips before spread. Your true RR ratio (after spread) in this perfect trade would differ depending on how you set your SL (using bid or ask) - something more like 1.7:1 or 1.8:1 for a pair like EURUSD. Again this is the perfect trade.

However, in most situations, the initial move will not go exactly 10 pips in one direction. It will go more than 10 pips. In fact, it could go up to another 19.9 pips and still reverse and trigger your trade at the bar open. In this case, if your TP is set at the close of the bar, your profit would be less than 20 (before spread) and could be as low as 0.1 pips (again, before spread).

My point is: to truly get a RR ratio of 2:1 with 30 pip range bars you would certainly need to set your TP past the close of the current bar, sometimes much further past.
  • #73
  • Dec 25, 2010 2:00am Dec 25, 2010 2:00am
Quoting zamanib
It is hard so on a range bar what going -- it hard to tell if price touch the entry and then went down back --- bit if you put up a 5mins regular chart you will see it clearly it did not touch the entry-- ( we see the buy is trigger now - because it reach below 10 pips from open waiting to go long - but price did not touch the open price yet since it went down to the trigger line

I hope this make sense and will help you to physically see what price is doing

I am speak about the last bar on the rangebar chart
Why do you think there should be a trade on that range bar?
At this very range bar price opened at 1.5457, went op for 2-3 pips and then dropped down.
There isn't any way I can see a price movement to trade the Short or the Long.

There is no trade on every new bar.
In this bar there is no trade.
  • #74
  • Dec 25, 2010 2:30am Dec 25, 2010 2:30am
Quoting smilee89
Why do you think there should be a trade on that range bar?
At this very range bar price opened at 1.5457, went op for 2-3 pips and then dropped down.
There isn't any way I can see a price movement to trade the Short or the Long.

There is no trade on every new bar.
In this bar there is no trade.
Look at the charts i posted -- open pice is 15447 it went below 10 pips (15437) but did not retrace up back to 15447 to open buy
PROFITABLE TRADERS ARE NOT LUCKY BUT ARE WELL PREPARED
  • #75
  • Dec 25, 2010 3:39am Dec 25, 2010 3:39am
Quoting zamanib
Look at the charts i posted -- open pice is 15447 it went below 10 pips (15437) but did not retrace up back to 15447 to open buy
Right.
The same for the other side.
Price dropped down and did not retrace back to Open price.
As long as you did not enter a loosing trade (not to mention entered wrongly) - it's ok.

Not every range bar is a trade bar.
This bar is not a trade bar.
  • #76
  • Dec 25, 2010 4:35am Dec 25, 2010 4:35am
I just did a few days in in decemeber 1st--3rd

not all bars are tradeable -

this is the condition i work with from open price -- price must move above or below minimum 20 pips and not exceed 35 pips

the blue arrow with (blue w) met the above conditoin-
the blue arrow with (yellow w) fall short a 1 -3 ppips to met the minimum 20 pips below or above open price.

If this what i am seeing we have a great thing going here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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PROFITABLE TRADERS ARE NOT LUCKY BUT ARE WELL PREPARED
  • #77
  • Dec 25, 2010 4:37am Dec 25, 2010 4:37am
Quoting zznbrm
- I use a custom-built simulator that deals with range bars just fine. I'll run some tests when I get a chance.

- If you set the TP to be the close of the current bar, the absolute best you can do is a 2:1 RR ratio (before spread). This would be a perfect trade where the price moved exactly 10 pips in one direction from the bar open, then immediately moved back in the opposite direction to the bar open to trigger your trade, and then continued in the same direction until bar end. That is 20 pips before spread. Your true RR ratio (after spread)...

Yes this is why I said to take both trades so if it goes in any direction it will get you 10 tips. A zigzag within the bar will cause you to lose 20 pips... so at worsed you are 1:2 and at best you are 1:1.. if you can get 65-75% win rate then it will be ok... but anything less would be a loser.

We have to test to see what strategy gives the best win rate first.

Jag
  • #78
  • Dec 25, 2010 4:37am Dec 25, 2010 4:37am
I will continue to back test december-- or if someone can helping out by making a simulator then it will be eaiser to back test- the condition is --easy
PROFITABLE TRADERS ARE NOT LUCKY BUT ARE WELL PREPARED
  • #79
  • Dec 25, 2010 4:42am Dec 25, 2010 4:42am
Quoting zamanib
I just did a few days in in decemeber 1st--3rd

not all bars are tradeable -

this is the condition i work with from open price -- price must move above or below minimum 20 pips and not exceed 35 pips

the blue arrow with (blue w) met the above conditoin-
the blue arrow with (yellow w) fall short a 1 -3 ppips to met the minimum 20 pips below or above open price.

If this what i am seeing we have a great thing going here
Hi Zamanib,

with a 50 pip bar you would set an alert for 16.6 pips since that is 1/3 of the bar. Your SL would be 16.6 pips and TP would be double. Try that.

Jag
  • #80
  • Dec 25, 2010 4:55am Dec 25, 2010 4:55am
Quoting sidhujag
hi zamanib,

with a 50 pip bar you would set an alert for 16.6 pips since that is 1/3 of the bar. Your sl would be 16.6 pips and tp would be double. Try that.

Jag
i will do 20 for now easy on the eyes and brians to compute (lol) also when we have simulator we can change range size tp size buy sell trigger value

ok be we still need to look at 5mins regular chart on the back test then our result will be accurate--

i did one example to show the 1st bar on december 1st look the chart on 5mins regular cahrt -- this confirm the accuracy

it will be a pian -- to do this manunally -- even if we have simulator for rangebars we will still need to manually confirm on 5min regular chart just for 100 + trades
why -- we need 5min chart to see-- because the the 1st bar in december took 1:15 mins to complete and price could have move up down many times it is hard to tell on a rangebar where it went but it is clear on 5min regular chart
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PROFITABLE TRADERS ARE NOT LUCKY BUT ARE WELL PREPARED
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