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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #9,681
  • Dec 24, 2010 2:27am Dec 24, 2010 2:27am
Quoting Custos
haha, 99% win-rate? Yeah, this guy seems to be a total genius and found the holy grail, haha.
Oh man, you should know better that such a win rate is impossible to achieve, at least not consistently.

And trading without a stop, a definite no go. Not gonna risk 100 pips or more to make 30 like he does.

Be happy when you get a 50% hit-rate with a good R:R, then you are on the winning path.

LOL, Custos, this guy is an engineer and has been trading for about 7 years. all of them without stops. we are having an argument. and yes, this is not the first attempt of his. He has had probably hundred of them and last were this spring/ summer....
The argument is about stops
He is a nice guy but this he alsways develop strategies without stops and always has this high rate and high returns. Thanks God, he only deposited $600 this time...
  • #9,682
  • Dec 24, 2010 2:41am Dec 24, 2010 2:41am
Quoting shiko
LOL, Custos, this guy is an engineer and has been trading for about 7 years. all of them without stops. we are having an argument. and yes, this is not the first attempt of his. He has had probably hundred of them and last were this spring/ summer....
The argument is about stops
He is a nice guy but this he alsways develop strategies without stops and always has this high rate and high returns. Thanks God, he only deposited $600 this time...
yeah with 600$ I would also give it a shot, but can he trade 100,000$ with that strat knowing that a substantial amount is deeply in the red?

I don't think so, and I also wouldn't be able to handle that. So then what's his secret besides not using a stop?
  • #9,683
  • Dec 24, 2010 2:48am Dec 24, 2010 2:48am
Quoting Custos
yeah with 600$ I would also give it a shot, but can he trade 100,000$ with that strat knowing that a substantial amount is deeply in the red?

I don't think so, and I also wouldn't be able to handle that. So then what's his secret besides not using a stop?

Have no idea, but he always traded without stops. Some accounts had high returns with following huge DD.
Before he used to trade bigger amounts. He seems to look for perfection like no losers, but you can notic eone loser of 220 pips over there in the beginning. He did not use as much leverage then.if 20-30 pips is 2% 200 pips move agaist him gonna hurt. I notice too that very often after stop hit price comes back. but sometimes it doe snot. and this is the problem.
  • #9,684
  • Dec 24, 2010 2:51am Dec 24, 2010 2:51am
I think he and another one whom you might heard of and whose older nick is Zero trade without stops and use some formulas and coding to trade.
  • #9,685
  • Dec 24, 2010 2:52am Dec 24, 2010 2:52am
I am demo trading these days, to avoid Christmas rust
  • #9,686
  • Dec 24, 2010 2:53am Dec 24, 2010 2:53am
Quoting shiko
I think he and another one whom you might heard of and whose older nick is Zero trade without stops and use some formulas and coding to trade.
yeah, I would never trade without stop losses. I think over the long haul he won't be profitable. Wouldn't surprise me if he also uses some sort of martingaling, then he has a perfectly failing strat . Looks good for a while but in the end it will blow your account.
  • #9,687
  • Dec 24, 2010 2:56am Dec 24, 2010 2:56am
Quoting Custos
yeah, I would never trade without stop losses. I think over the long haul he won't be profitable. Wouldn't surprise me if he also uses some sort of martingaling, then he has a perfectly failing strat . Looks good for a while but in the end it will blow your account.

no doubt about it. I trade with same money I deposited about 2 years ago. These guys have to reload their accounts constantly.
Not a good sign for traders with 7 years experience.
1 month 100% return looks enticing but I remember his previous attempts including clients' money...
  • #9,688
  • Dec 24, 2010 3:04am Dec 24, 2010 3:04am
Quoting shiko
no doubt about it. I trade with same money I deposited about 2 years ago. These guys have to reload their accounts constantly.
Not a good sign for traders with 7 years experience.
1 month 100% return looks enticing but I remember his previous attempts including clients' money...
I would never entrust guys my money who trade without stops. But it's a good example of how difficult trading really is. Man, these guys are 7 years at it and still don't have a system that is working over the long haul. They probably got so frustrated with stop losses, that they are not using any now.
Trading surely is one of the most difficult professions there is.
  • #9,689
  • Dec 24, 2010 3:16am Dec 24, 2010 3:16am
Quoting Custos
I would never entrust guys my money who trade without stops. But it's a good example of how difficult trading really is. Man, these guys are 7 years at it and still don't have a system that is working over the long haul. They probably got so frustrated with stop losses, that they are not using any now.
Trading surely is one of the most difficult professions there is.

I think they never tried to really trade.
The point is to control downside while letting profit be bigger than losses or at least equal but with better than 50% hit rate. Plus timing. They seem are always in the market with open positions. Market tends to get mellow than suddenly burst into action and often just against their positions.
Trading is a hard occupation.
I guess it takes 3-5 years to get there if to follow proper path of trading with odds.
This is glorified gambling after all
  • #9,690
  • Dec 24, 2010 3:16am Dec 24, 2010 3:16am
BTW, Merry Christmas guys!
  • #9,691
  • Dec 24, 2010 3:57am Dec 24, 2010 3:57am
Quoting shiko
BTW, Merry Christmas guys!
you too, merry christmas!
  • #9,692
  • Edited 2:33pm Dec 24, 2010 2:13pm | Edited 2:33pm
Custos, NM, Shiko and all others here, just wanted to wish all of you guys a Merry Christmas.

I look forward to start contributing again .... I'll be back with a couple of chart and my view on some pairs...lets share / compare our perspective and see how it works out next week. Learning by doing!

While i was out .... i worked a bit on the sidelines on some changes in my trade entries and also tried to strike some sort of balance with work, home and trading and get a better shot at entring trades even when i cant watch the market (which is exactly when the setup executes), and to be able to catch some overnight London breakouts without less chances of getting stopped out in the process.

I have increased my TF to H4 and started using (still in early testing) a trendline break trade entry assist tool it .... which i am applying only after seeing solid signs of reversals at the bottom of trend (accumulation phase) or during a pullback (to catch counter trend breakouts in direction of main trend). Overall no big change in system essentially S/R, RN, pivots, fibs, Candles patterns at these levels.

I have been mostly out of touch for the last few months therefore feeling rusty ....so just want to get back on track. I hope to stick around.

Edit: I would welcome some expert input on potentially better using the trade entry tool. I'll share the details of this tool in my later posts.
  • #9,693
  • Dec 24, 2010 3:18pm Dec 24, 2010 3:18pm
Quoting MktScape
Custos, NM, Shiko and all others here, just wanted to wish all of you guys a Merry Christmas.

I look forward to start contributing again .... I'll be back with a couple of chart and my view on some pairs...lets share / compare our perspective and see how it works out next week. Learning by doing!

While i was out .... i worked a bit on the sidelines on some changes in my trade entries and also tried to strike some sort of balance with work, home and trading and get a better shot at entring trades even when i cant watch the market (which is exactly...
Merry Christmas TO you and to ALL
--NM
  • #9,694
  • Dec 24, 2010 4:51pm Dec 24, 2010 4:51pm
Quoting NightMoves
Merry Christmas TO you and to ALL
--NM
NICE COLORS NM.
  • #9,695
  • Dec 24, 2010 5:21pm Dec 24, 2010 5:21pm
Here are two charts of this pair with my opinion. further discussion is welcome.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-wkly.PNG Size: 83 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-h4.PNG Size: 73 KB
  • #9,696
  • Dec 25, 2010 4:33am Dec 25, 2010 4:33am
Quoting MktScape
Custos, NM, Shiko and all others here, just wanted to wish all of you guys a Merry Christmas.

I look forward to start contributing again .... I'll be back with a couple of chart and my view on some pairs...lets share / compare our perspective and see how it works out next week. Learning by doing!

While i was out .... i worked a bit on the sidelines on some changes in my trade entries and also tried to strike some sort of balance with work, home and trading and get a better shot at entring trades even when i cant watch the market (which is exactly...
welcome back
  • #9,697
  • Dec 25, 2010 4:40am Dec 25, 2010 4:40am
Quoting MktScape
Here are two charts of this pair with my opinion. further discussion is welcome.
your eur/usd trendline doesn't make any sense to me. You just picked the most recent low. But how do you know that really is a low?
Attached is how I have drawn mine. We are already below the trendline and the bias is already down.
I am not even thinking about a long at this point. Has to go above my black rectangle before I am thinking about going long again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd w1 25.12.2010.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #9,698
  • Edited 6:29am Dec 25, 2010 6:11am | Edited 6:29am
Quoting Custos
your eur/usd trendline doesn't make any sense to me. You just picked the most recent low. But how do you know that really is a low?
Attached is how I have drawn mine. We are already below the trendline and the bias is already down.
I am not even thinking about a long at this point. Has to go above my black rectangle before I am thinking about going long again.
Here is how I see the EU on the weekly, right now it could be at an area of support as this area did act as resistance prior to this point, however the main trend is down on the weekly and it is really kind of mid range. On the long term thinking on this pair I dont think I would be looking to go long,I would be looking to go the other way.

You can see by the chart here where the areas of S/R located imo. But its just my opinion of course and it could either way, but always look for the highest probabilty on any trade, and I think if one is looking for the highest probabilty on this weekly TF then I would wait until one of those main trendlines is reached before taking a long term trade.

But there can be many smaller TF trades before any of those levels get reached.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-Weekly.png Size: 104 KB
  • #9,699
  • Dec 25, 2010 6:52am Dec 25, 2010 6:52am
Now here is a nice looking trend!

NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EA Daily.png Size: 27 KB
  • #9,700
  • Dec 25, 2010 7:04am Dec 25, 2010 7:04am
The GJ Pair PA is pressed for lower and lower highs as the bears keep pushing price down, but there seems to be some concern on just how low to push it, looks like it could be setting up for big break once eithe one of those lines gets broke....

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ-Weekly.png Size: 31 KB
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