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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #83,461
  • Dec 22, 2010 3:13pm Dec 22, 2010 3:13pm
Quoting Adilius07
I am here for 5 months. I feel I learned a lot, and feel like I can really do it.
However my performance keeps on telling me the opposite.

Only about 10% win, huge demo losses. I don't know what's wrong.
And is not that I'm not trying. I am. I am here daily reading, testing, thinking...

Just came back from Guest section of the Website finished reading all those Testimonials again, looks like everyone is getting it and doing just fine...

I can't be the only one that dumb...

Where is the problem... Why...
Hey Adi,

I'm not getting it as quickly as I'd like to but that's OK because I know that in time I will and it will be my full time business.

The fact that you're demoing is enough to show that you can follow a plan and stick to rules. The rest will fall into place with time and work and dedication which you have in bundles.

I've been here almost a year now and only just learnt what a pin bar is today..

1 year is just the start from what I can see - slow and steady.. slowly but surely..marathon not a sprint...
Anything can happen.
  • #83,462
  • Dec 22, 2010 3:28pm Dec 22, 2010 3:28pm
Quoting torontobboy2
I'm observing these bar patterns referenced in this thread and noticed that they perform well during lodon session, and are at their best in the first half session of US session. That is 4am-11am easter time.

from 5pm-3am Eastern time (london+US market closed) are hours not to trade, and any pattern developement should not be taken that seriously.

I know in the books its adviced to trade only when there is liquidity but what is your observation guys?
I have found the same thing to be true toronto. Things tend to dry up between 4pm est and 2am est with the exception of the tokyo open (8pm est).

But it only applies to you if you trade intraday. For the most part trading dailies/weeklies/monthlies will help you avoid these illiquid periods and concentrate on the price action.

Hope this helps,

-- Danny
  • #83,463
  • Dec 22, 2010 4:00pm Dec 22, 2010 4:00pm
Quoting Adilius07
Yes. Maybe. I will not give up anyway I enjoy this a lot, and don't see my life without it, it is a game I play daily... just want it to become a business not game...
Hi Adi, I think you are doing great. I think your enthusiasm is contagious and a great asset to this forum.

I can tell you my personal J16 story if it helps you (or anyone else) in any way. I started demoing using price action this time last year. My attempt from day one was to follow James' rules to treat trading as a business. So I demoed... and I demoed... and I demoed.

In what seems like an eternity (12 months), I can say 100% that I have turned the corner. I have found a method that works for me without the psychological setbacks of using real money. I use basic J16 teachings, no indicators (just look at my charts).

Listen to Mike and the other seniors when they tell you if you can't do it on demo, you can't do it on a real account. There were many times I was tempted to open up a real account with dollar signs in my eyes. I stopped myself. There were even times when I made money consistently for 3 months and was tempted to open up a real account. I stopped myself.

I knew that there was something about my trading that didn't feel right. I didn't feel 3 months was enough to prove consistency. So I kept demoing. I kept reminding myself that it's not how fast you finish the race... just that I can enjoy what I do and treat this as a business.

You all know how hard that is with this forum and all the winners you see posted. I asked myself sometimes, "Why can't I get this?", "It seems so easy to some of these guys?". But I continued to demo. I even took time out from the forum because I knew it was the best thing for me. I went to a quiet place every day and stared at the charts... and continued to demo.

Well, it's been about 12 months since I started demoing. My results today have blown me away... but the most important thing is that I'm consistent. I'm ready to battle the next monster that is trading a real account. It may take another year of battling or many years. But I'll do whatever it takes because, now, I know I can.

Adi, I wanted to post this to hopefully show you that your way is around the corner if you keep demoing. The results may not show right now, but trust me, the gears in your brain are absorbing this stuff. You will get it... if you focus and persist.

I'm nowhere near where I want to be, but I am much further along than I ever imagined because of James16, Mike, and many of the great people in this thread. Enjoy the ride Adi.

Hope this helps,

-- Danny
  • #83,464
  • Dec 22, 2010 4:04pm Dec 22, 2010 4:04pm
Good evening my j16 brothers.

Just thought I would quit lurking momentarily and post this chart. Could catching a 10000 pip move be this simple?

http://imgur.com/7orBA.png

Thank you once again to the seniors for your honest efforts day in and day out. Wishing everyone a successful 2011 calendar year.
Price is beautiful. A repetitive method is a competitive method.
  • #83,465
  • Edited 6:38pm Dec 22, 2010 4:32pm | Edited 6:38pm
Quoting Adilius07
I am here for 5 months. I feel I learned a lot, and feel like I can really do it.
However my performance keeps on telling me the opposite.

Only about 10% win, huge demo losses. I don't know what's wrong.
And is not that I'm not trying. I am. I am here daily reading, testing, thinking...

Just came back from Guest section of the Website finished reading all those Testimonials again, looks like everyone is getting it and doing just fine...

I can't be the only one that dumb...

Where is the problem... Why...
Adi,

I also wanted to add my piece of story here. I am just like you - demoing probably for the last 6 months. - Starting Demo capital - 10k. Risk - 1%

First 3 months: (By the count of PIPS)
Aug-2010: Total trades: 7 Wins:4 BE: 1 Loss = 2 - Net pips: -37
JuLY-2010: Total trades: 5 Wins:3 BE: 0 Loss = 2 - Net pips: -18
June-2010: Total trades: 8 Wins:5 BE: 1 . Loss = 2(Expected) - Net pips: + 246

Not good... neither consistent nor profitable for first 3 months.

Next 1.5 Months: By % gain/loss on the capital:
Oct 2010: (First two weeks)
FXDD - Gain - 23.85
Sep-2010 :
FXDD - Lost - 348.00 - 3.5% of the balance

Again not good.

Next 2.5 months - Changed strategy little bit. (see the table below - Oct (Last two weeks),Nov & Dec)


Geting little better .. but still not on the track.

My goal still is to be consistently be profitable for 3 consecutive months in Demo. Until that time, I will not trade with the real account.

Hence my intention here is to let you know - you are doing great.. and just be there.
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  • #83,466
  • Dec 22, 2010 5:14pm Dec 22, 2010 5:14pm
Quoting mbqb11
Just stay with it it has nothing to do with being dumb or not dumb. We always use the cliche but this is a business. It takes lawyers/doctors/etc other professionals 4+ years why should trading be any different? In fact I would argue it is much more difficult.
As always, Mike is right.

The other part that people overlook, though, is that this really is more difficult in some ways.

When I was at school, you get your homework and you are right or wrong. If you are wrong, you have that immediate feedback, can work out where you went wrong and then reattempt the problem until you get it right. It's very structured, both in the way you learn individual topics and the progression through an area of knowledge - one week will build on what you learnt in the previous week, and so on. Then you move onto the next area of learning, repeat the process... and eventually, after 13 years of school, 5 years of uni and another 2 years of postgrad... you get a job you hate

Trading, on the other hand, is very different. You dont have that structured progression that you get in a school environment. But even more importantly, you arent dealing with right/wrong answers. There are a range of possible results. For any given trade, there is a random distribution of outcomes that you cant see beforehand. You can do everything perfectly, and then GS comes out with a bad number and you get stopped out for a 1R loss. Or you can take a terrible, shitty entry and get lucky enough to piggyback on some SNB OMO and get a huge runner.

In either of those cases, the results you see dont correspond with whether you did the 'right' or 'wrong' thing.

So how do we overcome this? Well, there are two main ways.
1) In the long run, our results will approach their expected value. To put it simply, and without using the word variance again (even though it is the correct term), all the 'noise' will even out. Not really an ideal solution for most people (and this is where short timeframes have an advantage), since you dont want to wait years to find out you suck at trading.

2) Ignore your results, and focus on what you did and whether you did it properly. Focusing only on the outcome of the trade, as discussed, is problematic and misleading because the results can be completely divorced from the quality of our actions. Poker players, who face a similar dilemna, call this 'results oriented thinking'. So, regardless of the outcome of a trade, go back and re-examine your entry and your exit, and determine what you did right and what you did wrong.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #83,467
  • Dec 22, 2010 5:55pm Dec 22, 2010 5:55pm
Quoting joelcf
As always, Mike is right.

The other part that people overlook, though, is that this really is more difficult in some ways.

[b]When I was at school, you get your homework and you are right or wrong. If you are wrong, you have that immediate feedback, can work out where you went wrong and then reattempt the problem until you get it right. It's very structured, both in the way you learn individual topics and the progression through an area of knowledge - one week will build on what you learnt in the previous week, and so on. Then you move...
Not many wannabe traders take a step back and really think things through from this perspective...but it is so true and when you do realise how different trading is to the stuctured life you've lead up until this point it's then you'll begin to realise what is needed in order to give yourself the best chance to succeed.

In trading you make your own rules, create your own discpline and the results have an instanct affect on you personally and thus the ability to trigger emotions you wouldnt normally associate with everyday life in education or a job.

In education and a 'standard' job (where you work for a company etc.) the rules, structure and environment are created for you and thus all you are required to do is to conform to this environment and follow the rules.

As you said in both education and a job there is a standard learning process...usualy finite in nature with explicit right and wrong answers and typically there is 1 or at most 2-3 paths to follow to produce the correct answer, whereas in trading there is no structured, standard learning process that has been developed for you...it is not finite in nature ( as some will never achieve success) and there is a huge amount of potential paths one can take to get the 'correct answer' (i.e. to become a consistently profitable trader).

I know for me personally, it was only when I started to think along these lines as to what trading actually is and how it differs from the environment that was everyday life which had preceded that point in time that things really start to fall into place.
  • #83,468
  • Dec 22, 2010 6:48pm Dec 22, 2010 6:48pm
Quoting Adilius07
This is interesting Pinbar. Was this a touch trade? I'm still too chicken to do those, and I don't think I will ever grow to execute them, just looks too scary for me those touch trades....

Sort of but with a small IB as confirmation on H1.
  • #83,469
  • Dec 22, 2010 7:07pm Dec 22, 2010 7:07pm
Quoting Adilius07
I am here for 5 months. I feel I learned a lot, and feel like I can really do it.
However my performance keeps on telling me the opposite.

Only about 10% win, huge demo losses. I don't know what's wrong.
And is not that I'm not trying. I am. I am here daily reading, testing, thinking...

Just came back from Guest section of the Website finished reading all those Testimonials again, looks like everyone is getting it and doing just fine...

I can't be the only one that dumb...

Where is the problem... Why...
Hey Adi..

It's just the way it is.

Some people pick it up in weeks, some people claim to have done so, some people it may take years. I am probably the latter.

I really think you have done exceptionally well, and studied hard to get where you are. Maybe, it is just that you still have to think hard about a trade before taking it, and it is not yet instinctive as Ghous mentioned a while ago saying "at some stage, it will take you 30 seconds to decide if it is a good trade or a pass".

You will get there man, you are paying the dues in full.
  • #83,470
  • Dec 22, 2010 7:10pm Dec 22, 2010 7:10pm
Quoting nwo-trader
Good evening my j16 brothers.

Just thought I would quit lurking momentarily and post this chart. Could catching a 10000 pip move be this simple?
no it's not that simple lol.... most of the i4b's don't turn out this easy/good. best to shut em down at FTA, or STA....

Edit: I've had some I4Bs where I took profit at the FTA less than 50 pips out and after my exit, the trade reversed completely and would have crushed me for a full loss had I tried to hang on....
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #83,471
  • Dec 22, 2010 7:25pm Dec 22, 2010 7:25pm
GBP/NZD

I guess the next port of call is going to be the 61.8.

As SC mentioned the 2.0800 ish area is looking pretty strong, right now.

Just something to keep on a back burner, till it decided where it wants to go and shows us the hint.
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  • #83,472
  • Dec 22, 2010 7:42pm Dec 22, 2010 7:42pm
Quoting forex0908
Hi Dan,

Can you please explain the reasoning behind this trade?
Yes, but Mike has also made a great explanation: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=79253



see attached pic. I generally had the same thought process, except that mike was not concerned about the old '07-'08 price action when finding targets.


I also forgot to mention on the attached pic that the 0.75 was out of the way when placing my trade; more room to move
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Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #83,473
  • Dec 22, 2010 7:52pm Dec 22, 2010 7:52pm
Just thinking about using trade simulator to practice over the Xmas holidays, after I have made my Beef Wellington on the 25th, of course. My wife is Chinese and doesn't take to Turkey too much.

Anyway, anyone know of a trade simulator that also allows us to change the TF on the chart we are using while in simulation mode?
  • #83,474
  • Dec 22, 2010 8:12pm Dec 22, 2010 8:12pm
Quoting Pinbar
My wife is Chinese and doesn't take to Turkey too much.
LOL, then,,, after 1 month later ,you will have to eat dumplings for the chinese new year .
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #83,475
  • Dec 22, 2010 8:19pm Dec 22, 2010 8:19pm
this trade seems not good ,however , i will not lose too much .
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #83,476
  • Dec 22, 2010 8:38pm Dec 22, 2010 8:38pm
Quoting geniusztc
LOL, then,,, after 1 month later ,you will have to eat dumplings for the chinese new year .

Yes, JauZu...We eat them a lot anyway as my wife has lots of Chinese friends.
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  • #83,477
  • Dec 22, 2010 8:41pm Dec 22, 2010 8:41pm
Quoting Pinbar
Anyway, anyone know of a trade simulator that also allows us to change the TF on the chart we are using while in simulation mode?
Hey PB,

I've used ForexTester which has been pretty good. They have their annual 25% discount around this time of year.

-- Danny
  • #83,478
  • Dec 22, 2010 8:43pm Dec 22, 2010 8:43pm
if the current bar closes under 1.31 would it be considered double bar matching low with a lower close?

and secondly, how much weight should i put on to that big support line thats just below? Please reference the support line ignoring a) its near a round number and 2) i know 1.30 is phycologically SR for many...my question is more in terms of just looking at this SR in terms of how far back it is showing up..should i even look at an SR that does not reflect the most recent PA..etc etc...


thanks for the help
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  • #83,479
  • Dec 22, 2010 8:52pm Dec 22, 2010 8:52pm
[quote=james16;4257630]To My Liberal Friends:

Sorry Jim,

I just had to copy and send to my mailing list as if I wrote it!

Same to you and yours,

Poncho
" I can read the left side of the chart, the right side's a Bitch!
  • #83,480
  • Dec 22, 2010 9:11pm Dec 22, 2010 9:11pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Alan

I like all that confluence for the BEOB on the 4hr(I am guessing that is what you took up near 1.55). We are now approaching a former area of supply/demand multiple lows here so price may react here. If it can cut through this it could act as resistance on the way down lower. I think the most important thing is you protected yourself. We are nearing the end of the year so that would be a factor in my decision if I was in it(to lock in profits).

Congrats on your nice trade
Mike
Hi Mike, thanks for that. Yeah it's pretty much my thinking, and I am trying to make sure that I lose as few times and as little as is possible whilst still trading, I figure a few good wins is all you need when you don't lose much! Reality and my dreams might not conform but we'll see

I have come back recently to this trade to find where I was in profit by 100 pips I am now about 40 .. Not sure what lesson to take from it, either "you were too greedy, bring TPs in a bit" or perhaps it will head down again and I just have not given it the time it needs .. I played a few trades recently where I had cautious TPs and watched it shoot off for another XX pips, and this time I leave a long TP and it's going the other way .. Drives ya nuts!
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