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G10 Major Pairs Discussion

  • #21
  • Dec 13, 2010 9:52am Dec 13, 2010 9:52am
Quoting Nene
.....did you catch that drop on GBP/CHF, Matt.....


Jim
nah bro missed it....i didnt get a solid signal that i like for initial entry. When i get a good signal from my system, they are winners nearly 100% of the time. Very high hit rate....only bad thing is that the system generates less trades based on 6h charts, but they yield large winners.

when i see the next trade ill post it, but right now it seems that risk is taking the cake atm.
  • #22
  • Edited 1:30pm Dec 13, 2010 1:16pm | Edited 1:30pm
if we close above 3421, im ST bullish....that would indicate a semi reversal with resistances nearing 3465-3509 stronger nearing 3671. Support comes in at 3353.

today is exactly why i pulled out for december ....i was laughed at on another thread for this. I wonder how many people got burnt today trying to short this? not me, these huge one sided moves will surely be seen throughout the rest of this month.
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  • #23
  • Dec 13, 2010 10:38pm Dec 13, 2010 10:38pm
....how some people treat you in this forum. And its usually the flash in the pan types who have that early success but really do not know what they are doing. One thing I can not understand is why people try to pick bottoms when they can scale in pullbacks and make so much more.


Jim

Quoting mfoste1
if we close above 3421, im ST bullish....that would indicate a semi reversal with resistances nearing 3465-3509 stronger nearing 3671. Support comes in at 3353.

today is exactly why i pulled out for december ....i was laughed at on another thread for this. I wonder how many people got burnt today trying to short this? not me, these huge one sided moves will surely be seen throughout the rest of this month.
  • #24
  • Dec 14, 2010 11:16pm Dec 14, 2010 11:16pm
If you look at most chf crosses, the market looks like its ready to take back the opposing currency. By the looks of things, Jpy and Usd are ready to be bought in the next day or two. Oil and gold have hit serious barriers nearing 90 and 1400, respectively. In addition to commodities, SP and Dow appear to be nearing some profit taking resistance with their current positioning. The only thing that could mess up the medium term Usd, Jpy strength, would be if treasury yields were to fall.

This is one trade that I like currently, along with a few others that I'll post during the early US session. Since the Chf has been heavily bid over the past few sessions, I like shorting it against the Usd and Jpy, the two currencies that I think will strengthen sharply over the next two weeks. I like entry near 87.50 on this pair with a reasonable stop(<100 pips) and an open target until I would see a reason to close the trade. My 6h system is giving very strong signals short over the next 12 hours.
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  • #25
  • Dec 15, 2010 10:38am Dec 15, 2010 10:38am
Quoting mfoste1
Pound is in a tough place right now between 100dma and this 50 fib level(1.0520-2.1160)....my ideal entry for short would be closer to this major 50fib level. Tuesday Gbp has Halifax and Thursday rate statement. 6h system shows nice agreement with this fib level.

This level I posted last week has proved to be a very strong resistance. Technically speaking, when a major moving average is acting as a resistance along with a major Fibonacci level and a weekly or monthly pivot resistance, it about as close to a sure trade as we can get as technical traders. We could see a bit more downside for the pound( I'm thinking somewhere less than 80 pips) before the market takes back some sterling. Other pound crosses, most notably Gbp/Chf, are getting ready to bounce in the next 18 hours. I like buying Gbp/Usd closer to 1.5500, with a stop below 1.5490, for a short term bounce preceding further downside.
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  • #26
  • Dec 15, 2010 10:56am Dec 15, 2010 10:56am
Quoting mfoste1
This level I posted last week has proved to be a very strong resistance. Technically speaking, when a major moving average is acting as a resistance along with a major Fibonacci level and a weekly or monthly pivot resistance, it about as close to a sure trade as we can get as technical traders. We could see a bit more downside for the pound( I'm thinking somewhere less than 80 pips) before the market takes back some sterling. Other pound crosses, most notably Gbp/Chf, are getting ready to bounce in the next 18 hours. I like buying Gbp/Usd closer...
Another trade that I like at the moment is selling Eur/Gbp on rallies. Recent pound weakness over the past two days has given this pair room to rally. I would sell rallies until .85941 is broken, at which point in time I would buy dips. Entry near .8550-70 with stops above .8594, 1st target would be .8430.
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  • #27
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:39pm Dec 15, 2010 12:39pm
Usd/Yen along with treasury yields is showing signs that Usd is going to strengthen very sharply in the short-medium term. Once 84.40 is breached next major resistance is 85.00 Psych level.

I like selling all pairs against Usd, but most notably Gbp/Usd, Eur/Usd, Aud/Usd, Usd/Nok, Usd/Cad into and through next week.
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  • #28
  • Dec 15, 2010 2:06pm Dec 15, 2010 2:06pm
heavy buyers of Usd/Nok today....If today closes above 5.97581, it warrants continued Usd strength.
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  • #29
  • Dec 16, 2010 10:04am Dec 16, 2010 10:04am
Quoting mfoste1
If you look at most chf crosses, the market looks like its ready to take back the opposing currency. By the looks of things, Jpy and Usd are ready to be bought in the next day or two. Oil and gold have hit serious barriers nearing 90 and 1400, respectively. In addition to commodities, SP and Dow appear to be nearing some profit taking resistance with their current positioning. The only thing that could mess up the medium term Usd, Jpy strength, would be if treasury yields were to fall.

This is one trade that I like currently, along with a few...
Usd strength seems to be playing out well as I pointed out yesterday. All trades I posted over the past couple days have been winners for nice gains so far. 4 insider trading arrests have been made today which might add more fuel to risk aversion.

One pair that I do like selling is Aud/Nzd. As risk aversion picks up, this pair should fall, and given how sharp this rally has been, the correction will be sharp. I like entry near 1.3500 with a modest stop above 1.3550
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  • #30
  • Dec 17, 2010 9:51am Dec 17, 2010 9:51am
Quoting mfoste1
Another trade that I like at the moment is selling Eur/Gbp on rallies. Recent pound weakness over the past two days has given this pair room to rally. I would sell rallies until .85941 is broken, at which point in time I would buy dips. Entry near .8550-70 with stops above .8594, 1st target would be .8430.

didnt get the orders hit....will sell on rallies though, it doesnt seem this pair wants to go above .8500 all rallies >.8500 have been rejected. That tells me the market does not want to risk holding euros above that level. Once I see a good entry I will post it. Quad witching today, anything goes and this pair might get volatile shortly here. Usd strength playing out nice.
  • #31
  • Dec 20, 2010 9:36am Dec 20, 2010 9:36am
Gbp/Jpy looks to be ready for shorts to cover shortly here....I like long near 129.50 with a stop below 129.00.
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  • #32
  • Dec 20, 2010 7:52pm Dec 20, 2010 7:52pm
Quoting mfoste1
Usd strength seems to be playing out well as I pointed out yesterday. All trades I posted over the past couple days have been winners for nice gains so far. 4 insider trading arrests have been made today which might add more fuel to risk aversion.

One pair that I do like selling is Aud/Nzd. As risk aversion picks up, this pair should fall, and given how sharp this rally has been, the correction will be sharp. I like entry near 1.3500 with a modest stop above 1.3550

Aud is showing hidden signs of weakness all across the board, but most notably Aud/Nzd. I'm not quite sure it will make it to 1.35, there will probably be some options related selling interest if it approaches that level. I like it short at 1.3540 with an 80 pip stop.

Aud/Cad is also showing signs weakness, I'll be short at 1.0150 with 60 pip stop. Great RR in both of these trades.
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  • #33
  • Dec 21, 2010 1:21pm Dec 21, 2010 1:21pm
Quoting mfoste1
Aud is showing hidden signs of weakness all across the board, but most notably Aud/Nzd. I'm not quite sure it will make it to 1.35, there will probably be some options related selling interest if it approaches that level. I like it short at 1.3540 with an 80 pip stop.

Aud/Cad is also showing signs weakness, I'll be short at 1.0150 with 60 pip stop. Great RR in both of these trades.

Aud still showing signs of weakness. Many times risk trades will be reduced the last week in the year due to profit taking. It is certainly looking like this will be the case into the new year.
  • #34
  • Dec 22, 2010 6:31pm Dec 22, 2010 6:31pm
Quoting mfoste1
Aud is showing hidden signs of weakness all across the board, but most notably Aud/Nzd. I'm not quite sure it will make it to 1.35, there will probably be some options related selling interest if it approaches that level. I like it short at 1.3540 with an 80 pip stop.

Aud/Cad is also showing signs weakness, I'll be short at 1.0150 with 60 pip stop. Great RR in both of these trades.

Aud/Nzd short was triggered, I got a little shallower entry(1.3509) than expected(1.3540). Risk on the trade has been adjusted to 0%.

I'm also holding a short in Aud/Cad from yesterday at 1.0141 with risk at <1%.
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  • #35
  • Dec 22, 2010 10:46pm Dec 22, 2010 10:46pm
I'm preparing to short Aud/Usd. My ideal entry would be at 1.0050 with a stop above 1.01.

Like I said earlier, there will most likely be profit taking on risk during these last few days. Its pretty obvious the market has or is close to finish profit taking on risk Chf pairs. That is why we've seen the drastic slide in Chf crosses over the past few days. Now the market will take their Usd back. This is how the market takes profits in waves of risk structuring and de-leveraging positions. Usd will get very strong in the last week of trading this year. I feel Aud/Usd will be the best short.
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  • #36
  • Dec 25, 2010 10:45am Dec 25, 2010 10:45am
Quoting mfoste1
Aud/Nzd short was triggered, I got a little shallower entry(1.3509) than expected(1.3540). Risk on the trade has been adjusted to 0%.

I'm also holding a short in Aud/Cad from yesterday at 1.0141 with risk at <1%.

I guess this is why Aud was so well bid last week. This will be very negative for the Aud. I pointed out the hidden weakness I saw in Aud last week multiple times shown in the chart.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...inflation.html
  • #37
  • Edited 1:09pm Dec 25, 2010 12:26pm | Edited 1:09pm
Quoting mfoste1
I guess this is why Aud was so well bid last week. This will be very negative for the Aud. I pointed out the hidden weakness I saw in Aud last week multiple times shown in the chart.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...inflation.html

Good thread mfoste1.
whatever they say about but see from chart it to further & may be very big up next , yes some pullback may be due limited to 0.9786 should be enough if not 0.9378 by chance . anyway still should up except the pullback possible recent days fron price now to higher at 1.0127 & breakout below parity 0.9981approximately towards 0.9851 to 0.9786 but this last leg down of a bull set up is most unreliable , can start bull at any level of the stops.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #38
  • Jan 3, 2011 3:43pm Jan 3, 2011 3:43pm
I hope everyone had a nice holiday season. Traders should be coming back to work this week to bring in more volume to get some trends started. From glance at my charts today, I would have to say that a move is setting up and it looks to be in favor of the dollar. It was very very odd to see the stock markets gain nearly 1-1.5% today on no volume. I've heard 4 people(complete average joe investors with very little cash in equities) today saying how they are going to start investing in stocks and bonds. This certainly raises alarm in my mind to the validity of further sustained rallies in equities markets. When you hear talk like this from average household investors, the rally has usually come to the end and smart money is selling. For the rest of this week, I will be in Philadelphia, however I will continue my analysis up to speed on this page during all hours of the trading day.
  • #39
  • Jan 3, 2011 10:08pm Jan 3, 2011 10:08pm
I just got a great signal short for Chf/Jpy. Stops above 88 look to be a safe area, great RR on this trade.
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  • #40
  • Jan 4, 2011 10:12am Jan 4, 2011 10:12am
Quoting mfoste1
I just got a great signal short for Chf/Jpy. Stops above 88 look to be a safe area, great RR on this trade.

Chf/Jpy short was indeed a good trade, and by the looks of things I will continue to hold on a break of 86.
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