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Joined Feb 2010
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Status: J16 Student
|902 Posts
i modified the APF to externalize the smbols, this will allow traders to check with other pairs if they want. buy is always 1st pair, sell is always first 2 pairs. this is fixed. also you cant buy 2 pairs and sell 1 pair.
selection of pairs has to ensure proper hedging. EA doesnt care what pairs you select. default values are as per APF so that existing traders dont need to change anything
i modified the APF to externalize the smbols, this will allow traders to check with other pairs if they want. buy is always 1st pair, sell is always first 2 pairs. this is fixed. also you cant buy 2 pairs and sell 1 pair.
selection of pairs has to ensure proper hedging. EA doesnt care what pairs you select. default values are as per APF so that existing traders dont need to change anything
Single pair phantom has been doing well in my demo.
I noticed that it places trades immediately after closure of one basket, if time interval between basket is given it would be good. It can be left to individual's choice to choose EA sleeping time.
I've posted this on a couple of other freds about the subject but havent had a reply as yet.
Being a very successful gambler with my own automated Betfair algorithms and a reasonably successful part-time FX news trader (which I'm about to take more seriously), I'm interested in the mathematics of this system.
I can't quite understand the logic behind 'buy the pair in greatest phantom profit on the hour'. I appreciate the fact that we're dealing with synthetic hedges but because I don't know the FX market as well as many on here, perhaps someone could outline the maths involved, or at least point me in the right direction.
I've read this thread and most of the other phantom-based threads but the logic behind the concept escapes me. I'm not necessarily the sharpest knife in the drawer but I generally can understand stuff once its explained.
My own view of the FX market has been that any analysis of historic data is generally meaningless when applied to predicting future movement and whilst I understand this current system is not attempting to predict future movement per se, it is using historic data to determine an action. And I'm wondering what the logic is that is driving that.
He was looking for the card so high and wild hed never need to deal another
i modified the APF to externalize the smbols, this will allow traders to check with other pairs if they want. buy is always 1st pair, sell is always first 2 pairs. this is fixed. also you cant buy 2 pairs and sell 1 pair.
selection of pairs has to ensure proper hedging. EA doesnt care what pairs you select. default values are as per APF so that existing traders dont need to change anything
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Good work roundrock (as always).. I will first test this ea for EU UC EC. Does it has CL TH PS options?
Right now I am testing Ph_AddSix_03bx_CL_TH_PS.mq4 and it is doing well.
It will be gr8 if we will have ea like Ph_AddSix_03bx_CL_TH_PS.mq4 for single pair.
I've posted this on a couple of other freds about the subject but havent had a reply as yet.
Being a very successful gambler with my own automated Betfair algorithms and a reasonably successful part-time FX news trader (which I'm about to take more seriously), I'm interested in the mathematics of this system.
I can't quite understand the logic behind 'buy the pair in greatest phantom profit on the hour'. I appreciate the fact that we're dealing with synthetic hedges but because I don't know the FX market as well as many on here, perhaps someone...
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Some interesting thought. I am also seaching for this answer. Mean while will you mind to share your automated Betfair algorithms?
hello Caillou,
this is my weekly report- I always read all the posting-
It is sometimes really funny
But you know I always sign up on Friday with the report-
all settings are as always in the name of the file-
have a very nice weekend and
best regards
vienna
hello Caillou,
this is my weekly report- I always read all the posting-
It is sometimes really funny
But you know I always sign up on Friday with the report-
all settings are as always in the name of the file-
have a very nice weekend and
best regards
vienna
Ph_AddSix_03bx_CL_TH_PS (on demo) Basket opened 15.12, 26 open trades, MaxDD -11.34%
Art_Phantom_Light (on demo) Basket opened 16.12, 18 open trades, MaxDD -3.66%
art_pahntom_full_qqe_dual (on demo) Basket opened 16.12, 11 open trades, MaxDD -1.89%
Art_Phantom_Full_TH_CL_PS (on demo) Basket opened 08.12, 24 open trades, MaxDD -41.49%
Art_Phantom_Full_TH_CL_PS (on live) Basket opened 09.12, 18 open trades, MaxDD -8.20%
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Thank you Dambuster
The more I think about it, the more convinced I am about the need of limiting the time to trade. Next week I will run the EA only at London Session and New York Session.
Let's see how it goes. Otherwise, if we let the EA 24/7, I'm sure a big DD will come, it's unavoidable.
The more I think about it, the more convinced I am about the need of limiting the time to trade. Next week I will run the EA only at London Session and New York Session.
Let's see how it goes. Otherwise, if we let the EA 24/7, I'm sure a big DD will come, it's unavoidable.
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I can live with the DD but what gets to me with this system is that if the basket doesn't close quickly it will get into a long, drawn out trade that can last for days, even weeks. And at the end of it you either get a 1% equity profit that is probably all eaten up by swap or you get margined out.
It just does not seem to be a long term profitable strategy without some way of avoiding these tedious week long trades for negligable profit
Some interesting thought. I am also seaching for this answer. Mean while will you mind to share your automated Betfair algorithms?
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Hahha. One of the reasons I'm looking into other possibilities is that the edge I have enjoyed for about 3 to 4 years on Betfair is slowly evapourating. This is happening because as time moves on, any marketplace will become more efficient and also in the current climate of falling liquidity, I can see a bleak future for my alogos.
Sadly they work best in marginal markets which are not very efficient but also are the first to be affected by falling liquidity.
One clue I can give however is to think how some markets are linked together, like in football. You'll often find one of those markets is more efficient than the others......q.e.d......
I enjoy maths and like to understand exactly why something works. These Phantom systems do seem to have a lot of positive trading data from users, so it seems that there is something going on. But I dont quite understand what the process is that is driving it. I'd like to know that if possible and will spend a little time digging around.....Any help would be appreciated from those better equiped than me.
He was looking for the card so high and wild hed never need to deal another
Hahha. One of the reasons I'm looking into other possibilities is that the edge I have enjoyed for about 3 to 4 years on Betfair is slowly evapourating. This is happening because as time moves on, any marketplace will become more efficient and also in the current climate of falling liquidity, I can see a bleak future for my alogos.
Sadly they work best in marginal markets which are not very efficient but also are the first to be affected by falling liquidity.
One clue I can give however is to think how some markets are linked together, like in...
Single pair phantom has been doing well in my demo.
I noticed that it places trades immediately after closure of one basket, if time interval between basket is given it would be good. It can be left to individual's choice to choose EA sleeping time.
Thanks.
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hi navk. good to know its working out well for you. during my backtesting it gave around 70% profit this year with CLM 3 and CLM Cap 15. this is without TH, PS. when i added TH for this, it came down to 50%. on H1. May be with TH, we should reduce it to M30. Somebody has to do all these combinations on backtesting...
regarding your mod, i dont see any advantage in that. can you eloborate on why you need that ? lot of times the momentum of the market at basket closure will help the next basket ...... in any case it opens the next basket at 00, 30 min. but if the basket closes close these times, then next basket starts immediately. i can add this mod, but lets hear from others too
Good work roundrock (as always).. I will first test this ea for EU UC EC. Does it has CL TH PS options?
Right now I am testing Ph_AddSix_03bx_CL_TH_PS.mq4 and it is doing well.
It will be gr8 if we will have ea like Ph_AddSix_03bx_CL_TH_PS.mq4 for single pair.
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it has all the options, pl see the input variables...
can you explain wha do you mean by having single pair ea similar to addsix_03bx.....
No, not arbitrage, although I've done that too. I've also done bookmaker/bookmaker/Betfair arbitrage and that did well for me for a while but the bookies soon restrict your bets and it becomes a waste of time quite quickly.
He was looking for the card so high and wild hed never need to deal another
No, not arbitrage, although I've done that too. I've also done bookmaker/bookmaker/Betfair arbitrage and that did well for me for a while but the bookies soon restrict your bets and it becomes a waste of time quite quickly.
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thats the problem is a crooked game forex isntt much different
I agree. MT4 was built specifically for brokers to steal money from their clients. One day a good book will be written about the FX con. But that's not to say the tables can't be turned, at least temporarily....
He was looking for the card so high and wild hed never need to deal another
hi navk. good to know its working out well for you. during my backtesting it gave around 70% profit this year with CLM 3 and CLM Cap 15. this is without TH, PS. when i added TH for this, it came down to 50%. on H1. May be with TH, we should reduce it to M30. Somebody has to do all these combinations on backtesting...
regarding your mod, i dont see any advantage in that. can you eloborate on why you need that ? lot of times the momentum of the market at basket closure will help the next basket ...... in any case it opens the next basket at...
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I noticed that after closure of basket it places the first trade immediately for the next basket in the opposite direction of the trend. For example the previous basket closed due to more sell trades, the next basket opens with a buy trade. By the time it places another sell trade ( in the direction of the tend ) , the buy trade looses a lot. See the attached chart with trades open, you can get what i wanted to say.
