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Thinking Outside the Box!?!

  • #121
  • Dec 19, 2010 2:45pm Dec 19, 2010 2:45pm
Quoting jag1966
Learn how to identify true support and resistance then add trend analysis and a good reversal pattern and own it, find a timeframe that works best for you then you cannot go wrong.
Yea, S&R are the most precious thing and they offer good R:R, combined with divergence and reversal patterns for confirmation, or any other confluence.
The most interesting thing for me to watch is how price acts around S&R.
  • #122
  • Dec 19, 2010 4:28pm Dec 19, 2010 4:28pm
Thinking out of the box is the only way to win in this market.
I got this idea of thinking outside the box about a year ago and did some serious research and eventually found what I was looking for.
A perfect strategy does exist, you just have to look for it.
The best way to go about doing this is to look at the market in very simple terms. Understand that forecasting price cannot be done with 100% accuracy and depends on too many factors for it to be an efficient strategy for you to try and do. So with that being said, start to look to other options and aspects of the market. Ask yourself what are the things that you for CERTAIN the market will do every day (or week, month, or year). Once you do this, you will be on the right track to finding the answer to this market.
  • #123
  • Dec 19, 2010 10:39pm Dec 19, 2010 10:39pm
Quoting fx111
Yea, S&R are the most precious thing and they offer good R:R, combined with divergence and reversal patterns for confirmation, or any other confluence.
The most interesting thing for me to watch is how price acts around S&R.
Yes I find that your right.. looking at SR really does factor out a lot of crap.. but confluence is the key with SR

I'm also working on my EA and making general observations and what I'm saying as well is proving to be right.. there are always a million ways to look at the market I suppose.. trendlines, SR, bollingerbands, Waves.. I say this in many posts but its true.. thats why I believe what I was saying before opens the doors to this holographic universe, like the world we live in is just your recreation and interpretation, so is the market which is why I believe trading it for what it is and not its recreation might take things to a new level.. so many see it as a chart with candlesticks

Looking forward
  • #124
  • Dec 19, 2010 10:55pm Dec 19, 2010 10:55pm
Also please don't confuse me of making claims that static is bad.. no KISS is great.. it gets you making money faster.. but what I'm on a pursuit now in my trading experience is to top my KISS methods and what I am finding is those same concepts gone dynamic increase there probabilities and statistics substantially many little tweakings having a huge butterfly effect and compounding over the long term
  • #125
  • Dec 20, 2010 6:20am Dec 20, 2010 6:20am
"In a famous 1951 experiment led by Swarthmore's Solomon Asch, 76% of people conformed at least once to what they heard other people arguing was the correct length of a line on a scale right in front of their face, even though it was plainly wrong. The people arguing for the incorrect measurement were all plants, but overall, 33% of participants went along with the group, even though they were spouting nonsense. A follow-up study in a 1955 Journal of Abnormal Psychology report found even under anonymous conditions, about 23% of people preferred to believe what people were saying about the line rather than the evidence in front of their own eyes."

Why is this so then?

Thinking outside the box or just having a different opinion will trigger exactly the same feelings as if you were wrong. There is no difference.

(It's no coincidence that some of the greatest thinkers in time was depressed loonies, they felt terrible at the time because of the different ideas they had.)

/LV
  • #126
  • Dec 20, 2010 10:00am Dec 20, 2010 10:00am
Quoting LastViking
"In a famous 1951 experiment led by Swarthmore's Solomon Asch, 76% of...

Great insights, I feel this way not necessarily in this thread but a few others I find myself going against the grain while others keep joining in and agreeing with the group.. I've gotten over the "depressed stage" lol I now find a lot of insight from there point of views

but what you said looks sound when you compare CNN keeping people doing exactly what the "experts" are advising as the economy tank and they lose there 401K and jobs which seems to be the story I hear people around me saying during the middle of every recession.. I also here them saying its the beginning of the recession.. but no matter how many times I try to explain job cuts/loses usually occur during middle to end of recessions they think I'm an idiot.
  • #127
  • Dec 20, 2010 7:19pm Dec 20, 2010 7:19pm
Quoting LastViking
Why is this so then?

Thinking outside the box or just having a different opinion will trigger exactly the same feelings as if you were wrong. There is no difference.

/LV

It's pack mentality or the need to feel accepted, is the only conclusion I can come to. I can understand the need to belong because trading in and of itself is isolation magnified.

But are you trading to belong to a group? Or are you trading to make money? Many times in life you are given choices and in order to make the choice you have to give something up to get to where you want to be. It's no different than a job promotion at a rat-race job (it) requires longer hours and more time at the office etc.

In being a trader we give something up all the time whether you want to admit it or not.

This is why there is a difference between successful traders and unsuccessful traders.

"A successful trader will do things an unsuccessful trader can't and won't do."

Your experience may vary....
  • #128
  • Dec 21, 2010 6:21am Dec 21, 2010 6:21am
Quoting newyear498
Also please don't confuse me of making claims that static is bad.. no KISS is great.. it gets you making money faster.. but what I'm on a pursuit now in my trading experience is to top my KISS methods and what I am finding is those same concepts gone dynamic increase there probabilities and statistics substantially many little tweakings having a huge butterfly effect and compounding over the long term
Yep I agree, but I think for inexperienced traders you have to build a solid foundation from tried and tested methods.

This is what will enable them to overcome the phsychological gremlins, THEN you can afford to start thinking outside the box ( unless of course they are exceptional natural traders ) .

All too often we see KISS trading strategies turned into nightmares by newbs adding indis cos they are "thinking outside the box", they aren't of course. I am guilty of this too, it just took me a few years to realise and go full circle.

Like the previous poster said, it is all about making money. The moment I vere away from my plan I make mistakes.

My recent out of the box changes have been to trade tests of SR once broken, a retracement on a H1 trend can be a "with trend" trade on m5 and can be traded safely, there is no such thing as "contra trend" really.
  • #129
  • Edited 7:51pm Dec 22, 2010 7:26pm | Edited 7:51pm
finish my dynamic EA today

backtests show from 2000-2005

a 10,000 account grew to 500 million trading the 5M.. only risked 1% of account per trade...

looks like I'm onto something

here is results...
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip StrategyTester.zip   1.5 MB | 430 downloads
  • #130
  • Dec 22, 2010 8:58pm Dec 22, 2010 8:58pm
Quoting newyear498
finish my dynamic EA today

backtests show from 2000-2005

a 10,000 account grew to 500 million trading the 5M.. only risked 1% of account per trade...

looks like I'm onto something

here is results...
run it a few more times. then reboot your entire computer and run it another bunch of times.

i've written ea's that in backtesting maxed out the lotsize allowed to be sent in MT4 and gave me more money than exists in the world... but it was always just a glitch until a reboot fixed it.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #131
  • Dec 22, 2010 9:23pm Dec 22, 2010 9:23pm
Quoting newyear498
finish my dynamic EA today

backtests show from 2000-2005

a 10,000 account grew to 500 million trading the 5M.. only risked 1% of account per trade...

looks like I'm onto something

here is results...
So the last order is a 4 pip scalp for $900 mil. Obviously, you can fill that amount with zero slippage. No sweat at all.

Please keep us posted.
  • #132
  • Dec 22, 2010 10:11pm Dec 22, 2010 10:11pm
Quoting Adal
So the last order is a 4 pip scalp for $900 mil. Obviously, you can fill that amount with zero slippage. No sweat at all.

Please keep us posted.
Oh really you cant do that?

oh thank you so much for the insight.. gee.. I had no fucking idea that a backtest would not be 100% accurate and need forward testing..

I was sure I was gonna make 900 million and keep on trucking forward in the market for a billion because I'm greedy

I better not keep my future test to myself because by sharing my results I would just get so much fucking insight into how things work from people so smart such as yourself
  • #133
  • Dec 22, 2010 10:21pm Dec 22, 2010 10:21pm
What happens for the $900 mil order also happens for the $10K order

And here's another insight - the MetaTrader Strategy Tester is totally broken, as can be seen from this test. It's broken in a thousand way. But that won't stop you from using it. Because worse is better as we all know.

Out of the box thinking would be dumping MetaTrader which is as boxy as you can get.

But you are fucking smart and don't need no word from losers which obviously are not profitable.
  • #134
  • Dec 22, 2010 10:26pm Dec 22, 2010 10:26pm
Quoting Adal
What happens for the $900 mil order also happens for the $10K order

And here's another insight - the MetaTrader Strategy Tester is totally broken, as can be seen from this test. It's broken in a thousand way. But that won't stop you from using it. Because worse is better as we all know.

Out of the box thinking would be dumping MetaTrader which is as boxy as you can get.

But you are fucking smart and don't need no word from losers which obviously are not profitable.
Inserted Video


lol. nicely put.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #135
  • Dec 22, 2010 10:36pm Dec 22, 2010 10:36pm


I know I know, it needs a lot of forward testing ofcourse... but I just use backtests to get a extremely rough view because I see no point forward testing and jumping in with 90% draw down back tests

I also do the backtests with max bars and such to get a better backtest model but it still sucks but at same time as good as back tests come

I will be happy to explore different ways to backtest if you know of any better


Thanks
  • #136
  • Dec 22, 2010 10:57pm Dec 22, 2010 10:57pm
Quoting Adal
What happens for the $900 mil order also happens for the $10K order

And here's another insight - the MetaTrader Strategy Tester is totally broken, as can be seen from this test. It's broken in a thousand way. But that won't stop you from using it. Because worse is better as we all know.

Out of the box thinking would be dumping MetaTrader which is as boxy as you can get.

But you are fucking smart and don't need no word from losers which obviously are not profitable.
the EA is programed to handle slippage.. so.. it wont except anymore slippage than I allow for.. (but I have to note slippage wont account for in backtest which is why forward testing is needed.. had to cover that real quick because I know your waiting for 1 little thing I don't mention.. one thing I leave out you will start your whole post ambushing me for not mentioning something I feel is obvious)

Hmm so maybe you can stop thinking everyone around you is so dumb for 1 moment.. comprehend others have the ability to understand backtests are a first glance into shit.. but thats not going to happen is it.. your on a fucking roll belittling me everytime I encounter you...

I don't understand why the hell you come around hinting that I find you not to be a profitable trader.. when I really don't give a fuck what you are.. you continuously attempt to belittle me in every post.. are you trying to establish some dominance that your better than me at trading? fine your the best trader there has ever been.. can you stop being such an asshole now.. this is the second thread of mine your decided to treat me like a fucking idiot am I wrong to throw back the same level of respect you give me?

go fuck yourself already
  • #137
  • Dec 22, 2010 11:54pm Dec 22, 2010 11:54pm
Its really a losing battle to talk with people in this forum who even cant draw a correct trend line, so I suggest not wasting your energy in this flame thread
  • #138
  • Edited 6:56am Dec 23, 2010 5:44am | Edited 6:56am
Quoting newyear498
the EA is programed to handle slippage.. so.. it wont except anymore slippage than I allow for.. (but I have to note slippage wont account for in backtest which is why forward testing is needed.. had to cover that real quick because I know your waiting for 1 little thing I don't mention.. one thing I leave out you will start your whole post ambushing me for not mentioning something I feel is obvious)

Hmm so maybe you can stop thinking everyone around you is so dumb for 1 moment.. comprehend others have the ability to understand backtests are a...
Your can prevent anyone you want from posting in your thread.
If you were to put me for example on your ignore list from my profile, I can no longer post in your thread.
  • #139
  • Dec 23, 2010 8:11am Dec 23, 2010 8:11am
Quoting Adal
And here's another insight - the MetaTrader Strategy Tester is totally broken, as can be seen from this test. It's broken in a thousand way. But that won't stop you from using it. Because worse is better as we all know.

Out of the box thinking would be dumping MetaTrader which is as boxy as you can get.

But you are fucking smart and don't need no word from losers which obviously are not profitable.
lol

Great advice right there.
  • #140
  • Dec 23, 2010 8:57am Dec 23, 2010 8:57am
The back tests have given consistent results on 4 different currencies.. like I said I have max bars, downloaded historical data.. and 90% mock up accuracy

hook this bad boy up on another computer to forward test.. woke up this morning and its up 2%

ofcourse backtests are ridiculous returns.. I imagine its just a good sign to pursue and more forward testing is needed

but why is everyone crying about the backtests.. you really think there a waste of time?

I don't see why my backtests are "broken" unless you can clearly define what aspects are broken then you clearly are just making jealous statements because you have no insight into whats broken or suggestions on how to get better results.. pointless negativity

unless you are confusing broken for not 100% accurate.. in that case congratulations your a little late to this fact


I have watched this trade with visual mode and everything functions perfectly without a flaw.. the concepts are extremely sound and it simply adapts to the current market conditions

actually it only adapts to one condition.. I had a few others I plan to include in the future but the main concept is what its focused around.. trade with no indicators of any sort.. just price actions stuff

every other EA i have download from FF has negative backtest results except 2 which are decent.. and then mine which is just ridiculous

would be happy to hear some suggestions rather than "haha's", "it must be broken because you got good results", and "backtests don't give accurate results (hehe I think I'm smart because I know this..)"

Thanks.. and I'll take the initiative and say "sorry for being such an asshole in a few posts.. I know no one here is an idiot.. feels like some think I am

Thanks again
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