DislikedThis I think is the biggest lie out there.. I wish we could find the source of this comment.
really so only 10% of traders are making money?
maybe they ment 90% of new traders.. but how far do you consider a trader new for..
but if there is any relation to why a majority of traders lose money its because they are all trading the same concepts like trend is your friend and when this SMA crosses you buy.. so thats why I think an outside the box idea or one that goes against the main trading rules is needed to beat the heard mindsetIgnored
- #104
- Dec 5, 2010 6:57pm Dec 5, 2010 6:57pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Pips... or GTFO! | 1,023 Posts
I think this idea is very outside the box..
almost everyone focuses way to much on the entires.. I think most traders would profit much more if they simply enter almost anywhere without a specific setup and simply focus there entire strategy on exits
exiting is the point where you either make money or lose money.. your entrys only net you unrealized profits and losses
I suspect focusing on how your going to exit and learning clear exits will lead you in a better direction for finding the best entry points to complement your exits
almost everyone focuses way to much on the entires.. I think most traders would profit much more if they simply enter almost anywhere without a specific setup and simply focus there entire strategy on exits
exiting is the point where you either make money or lose money.. your entrys only net you unrealized profits and losses
I suspect focusing on how your going to exit and learning clear exits will lead you in a better direction for finding the best entry points to complement your exits
- #106
- Edited 6:28am Dec 9, 2010 5:07am | Edited 6:28am
- | Commercial User | Joined Sep 2010 | 1,472 Posts
Newyear, thank you for making this thread and especially to the pros that contributed 
. I've been wrapping my mind around these various discussions since its inception and can now say I'm a much better trader because of it.
I recently realized that we were just running circles inside the box walls. Random ideas just led me into a dark corner where I couldn't see the inside walls. Learning about the foreign exchange market and how it really works has helped me immensely.
"You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts." -Richard Feynman
. I've been wrapping my mind around these various discussions since its inception and can now say I'm a much better trader because of it.I recently realized that we were just running circles inside the box walls. Random ideas just led me into a dark corner where I couldn't see the inside walls. Learning about the foreign exchange market and how it really works has helped me immensely.
"You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts." -Richard Feynman
I think this idea is very outside the box..
almost everyone focuses way to much on the entires.. I think most traders would profit much more if they simply enter almost anywhere without a specific setup and simply focus there entire strategy on exits
exiting is the point where you either make money or lose money.. your entrys only net you unrealized profits and losses
I suspect focusing on how your going to exit and learning clear exits will lead you in a better direction for finding the best entry points to complement your exits
This is a key question which requires a focus on both the entry and the exit. Yes, the exit is obviously critical and is oftentimes the side of the (otherwise good) trade where things are screwed up, but I would hesitate to suggest that the entry criteria is not important. A good entry criteria may give a higher probability of success or it may at least give a consistent reference point from which to make your later exit decisions. You will not be a successful trader unless you understand the capability of your method, and in order to do this, you need to have your entry and exit criteria very well sorted as well as the environmental factors that may lead you to manage trades differently based on the circumstances of the day - this latter point is likely an entire thread unto itself, and is often neglected within a completely 'mechanical' system to the detriment of trading outcomes.
We are still inside the box here, but is important stuff for the developing trader nevertheless.
- #109
- Edited 9:33pm Dec 9, 2010 7:55pm | Edited 9:33pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Sep 2010 | 1,472 Posts
I think this idea is very outside the box..
almost everyone focuses way to much on the entires.. I think most traders would profit much more if they simply enter almost anywhere without a specific setup and simply focus there entire strategy on exits
exiting is the point where you either make money or lose money.. your entrys only net you unrealized profits and losses
I suspect focusing on how your going to exit and learning clear exits will lead you in a better direction for finding the best entry points to complement your exits
- #113
- Dec 14, 2010 8:25pm Dec 14, 2010 8:25pm
- | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: IF YOU SEE SMOKE, RUN! | 1,206 Posts
- #116
- Dec 19, 2010 9:36am Dec 19, 2010 9:36am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Pips... or GTFO! | 1,023 Posts
I think market never changes, at least the essence, only form change. Of course, it change its direction, sometimes it ranges, sometimes it trending, sometimes price act hysterical just like people does 
, sometimes has no direction and so on. But the essence what drives price up-down never change - market is a live. It's a graphical view of human emotions, and human emotions are predictable at some point (if you slap someone you know you gonna make him angry and if you know that person very well you can even predict how he's gonna react, is he gonna start to cry or slap you back = if market comes first time to strong daily resistance you know it's gonna bounce from it 'cause many tend to take profit on that level as they don't believe price can break it (atleast not right away) - they think better be safe then sorry and due fear that they gonna lose piece of they unrealized profit they take what they earn which makes price to bounce). And Technical analyse is self-fulfilling prophecy that's why confluence is very important, different people use different methods of analysis, some use fibos, some S&R, some trendlines, and so on, if you spot so many things on one place the bigger the probability, 'cause you collect more people to act on certain way, so i don't think you have to be very different from others, you have to look through the eyes of the mass, the more people spot some pattern, let's say h&s it has more chance to become true.
, sometimes has no direction and so on. But the essence what drives price up-down never change - market is a live. It's a graphical view of human emotions, and human emotions are predictable at some point (if you slap someone you know you gonna make him angry and if you know that person very well you can even predict how he's gonna react, is he gonna start to cry or slap you back = if market comes first time to strong daily resistance you know it's gonna bounce from it 'cause many tend to take profit on that level as they don't believe price can break it (atleast not right away) - they think better be safe then sorry and due fear that they gonna lose piece of they unrealized profit they take what they earn which makes price to bounce). And Technical analyse is self-fulfilling prophecy that's why confluence is very important, different people use different methods of analysis, some use fibos, some S&R, some trendlines, and so on, if you spot so many things on one place the bigger the probability, 'cause you collect more people to act on certain way, so i don't think you have to be very different from others, you have to look through the eyes of the mass, the more people spot some pattern, let's say h&s it has more chance to become true.
- #118
- Edited 1:00pm Dec 19, 2010 12:50pm | Edited 1:00pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Pips... or GTFO! | 1,023 Posts
I think market never changes, at least the essence, only form change. Of course, it change its direction, sometimes it ranges, sometimes it trending, sometimes price act hysterical just like people does
My post was touching a bit in a different area.. Although everything you mentioned is true or atleast I agree with.. I was talking more to scenarios where lets say today and tomorrow are going to both be up trends.. they can both but uptrends but be completely different in the way they vibrate.. I have always seen this to be the case to some degree.. every day of trading is different even if they are both up or downtrends etc... usually I find myself viewing the most recent actions of the day to get a feel for how the market fluctuates at that given time
I see most systems don't account for the subtle changes that happen overtime and I suspect some correlation to that.. for example a system that is trend based may fail in a range setting.. but if you can map out the subtle changes in vibrations and rhythm your system could always be following the trend in a longer aspect while the range remains a shorter aspect..
I'm going to be testing my theory in the future with some EA's which will adapt to the variables I feel are needed to map out the dynamics..
ofcourse there are ways to overcome all of this and your methods that you mentioned are good because they do in a way incorporate suspended time.. or a method that ignores time to a degree and focuses on the resistances in pure price.. so theres always a million ways to trade...
a better example would be to look at system which have a 10 period moving average.. its like setting yourself up for failure when the average or 10 periods becomes useless to the markets change in vibrations and rhythm.. so instead you adapt that moving average to a dynamic one that changes to the rhythm
and I suspect while you may never fully map out the market perfectly you could be following with a higher accuracy rate compared to static variables. Which become useless during any time the market fluctuates at a higher and slower rate due to all dynamics involved in trading, which can never be truly predicted unless you believe golden ratios can foresee all events in the future such as the next Hitler and terrorist bombings, and I don't have much interest in pursuing that route so I will just adapt to these unforeseen scenarios as they come rather than remain non-evolving / static.
So of course you are right the essence don't change much.. there are certainly those key aspects which must be focused on but its my observation that the subtle changes are extremely important as well, especially because they seem to compound and in the future it really adds up.
Again my testing is still un-concluded with all due respect.
- #120
- Edited 2:05pm Dec 19, 2010 1:52pm | Edited 2:05pm
I think market never changes, at least the essence, only form change. Of course, it change its direction, sometimes it ranges, sometimes it trending, sometimes price act hysterical just like people does
I was shown a method over four years ago that worked with 70 - 80% reliability back then, it works with exactly the same reliability now and I have no doubt it will in four years time.
Admittedly it has taken me three years since then to master my own personal fear and greed gremlins, but just knowing a very simple trend trading and support and resistance method has historical performance gave me the will and drive to suceed.
I know this isn't out of the box thinking but I feel it is important to remember just keep it simple. There are many very good threads here that can prove trend and price action work exactly the same way on the m5 chart as it does on the daily chart. Vantage, trade price, strat, lawgirl21 and james 16 are just a handful of many good simple price action trading threads here at FF.
Learn how to identify true support and resistance then add trend analysis and a good reversal pattern and own it, find a timeframe that works best for you then you cannot go wrong.