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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #9,661
  • Dec 20, 2010 2:10am Dec 20, 2010 2:10am
Quoting Custos
no, my programming skills are also limited. For the things I can program, I use multicharts. The rest I do manually. Really, logging a couple of thousand trades just takes a couple of weeks.

Custos, how can I do it? what do you mean by logging in trades?
  • #9,662
  • Dec 20, 2010 2:23am Dec 20, 2010 2:23am
Quoting shiko
Custos, how can I do it? what do you mean by logging in trades?
you go back on mt4 to the first data you have and start looking for setups. In excel you start typing in all relevant info from the setups you found, like: entry date & time, entry price, exit date & time, exit price, stop loss price, Long & Short, day of the week, type of pattern, higher time-frame trend?, free traffic, did you put stop to b/e & other information you think is relevant.

Once you got a couple of trades logged into excel, you can start to look what your average profit vs. loss is, the average holding time of losers vs. winners, if time of the day is relevant, if day of the week is relevant, which pattern is the most profitable, is free traffic needed, does the higher time-frame trend have to be in line... hope you get the idea.

Be sure that during logging in your trades you don't change your criteria for entry and exit and so on. Otherwise there is not much use in that exercise.

Hope that helps.
  • #9,663
  • Dec 20, 2010 2:24am Dec 20, 2010 2:24am
Quoting Custos
you go back on mt4 to the first data you have and start looking for setups. In excel you start typing in all relevant info from the setups you found, like: entry date & time, entry price, exit date & time, exit price, stop loss price, Long & Short, day of the week, type of pattern, higher time-frame trend?, free traffic, did you put stop to b/e & other information you think is relevant.

Once you got a couple of trades logged into excel, you can start to look what your average profit vs. loss is, the average holding time of losers vs. winners, if...

Custos, thanks. I will show your message to my wife. She is good with excel.
  • #9,664
  • Dec 20, 2010 3:26am Dec 20, 2010 3:26am
Quoting Custos
When you let your trades run, you will have a straight, linear equity curve (hopefully up )
When you take profits, you are kind of using a compound effect. Cause you can increase your position size each time.
I am still in the midst of testing, but I think a middle way is the best.
Taking profits but only when very high R:R's are achieved. Currently that is around R:R 10:1 or higher.
Thing is the higher the win-loss, normally the lower the R:R is. Accuracy is high, but profitability not that much. The higher the R:R, the lower the win-loss will...

Custos, are you compounding after each successful trade or monthly?
I am going to try it monthly.
  • #9,665
  • Dec 20, 2010 3:27am Dec 20, 2010 3:27am
Quoting shiko
Custos, are you compounding after each successful trade or monthly?
I am going to try it monthly.
I am going with weekly for the time being.
  • #9,666
  • Dec 20, 2010 3:50am Dec 20, 2010 3:50am
Quoting Custos
I am going with weekly for the time being.
Compounding can be very lucrative if used properly. I risk 1% of the balance now. so, if balance increased 4% like this month, my size also increases 4%, but it also depends on stop size. every trade stop is different.
generally speaking, to double the money within 1 year we need to make 6% monthly with appropriate compounding. When thinking 100% annually it might look like a hard task but with steady 6% monthly it looks like pretty achievable.
  • #9,667
  • Dec 20, 2010 5:06am Dec 20, 2010 5:06am
Quoting shiko
Compounding can be very lucrative if used properly. I risk 1% of the balance now. so, if balance increased 4% like this month, my size also increases 4%, but it also depends on stop size. every trade stop is different.
generally speaking, to double the money within 1 year we need to make 6% monthly with appropriate compounding. When thinking 100% annually it might look like a hard task but with steady 6% monthly it looks like pretty achievable.
yeah, but as I said, taking profits too early is also not the way to do it. So the middle way is the best. Shooting for high R:R's and keep taking profits at those high R:R's.
If you do the calculation further it gets interesting, after around 3 years you would have a 1000% on your initial money.
  • #9,668
  • Dec 20, 2010 6:02am Dec 20, 2010 6:02am
Quoting Custos
yeah, but as I said, taking profits too early is also not the way to do it. So the middle way is the best. Shooting for high R:R's and keep taking profits at those high R:R's.
If you do the calculation further it gets interesting, after around 3 years you would have a 1000% on your initial money.

Not taking at all is even worse, just watch my November
Damn, I never had such a big winners and I lost.
  • #9,669
  • Dec 20, 2010 7:09am Dec 20, 2010 7:09am
Quoting shiko
Not taking at all is even worse, just watch my November
Damn, I never had such a big winners and I lost.
haha, sorry to hear that, well you for sure gonna do better in the upcoming months.
  • #9,670
  • Dec 20, 2010 8:07am Dec 20, 2010 8:07am
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  • #9,671
  • Dec 20, 2010 8:35am Dec 20, 2010 8:35am
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  • #9,672
  • Dec 20, 2010 8:53am Dec 20, 2010 8:53am
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  • #9,673
  • Dec 20, 2010 5:02pm Dec 20, 2010 5:02pm
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  • #9,674
  • Dec 20, 2010 5:21pm Dec 20, 2010 5:21pm
[quote=Custos;4254596]haha, sorry to hear that, well you for sure gonna do better in the upcoming months

Custos, thanks for encouraging words
I have made a big progress this year but could have been much better.
I hope this coming 2011 will be my breakout year.
  • #9,675
  • Dec 21, 2010 4:04am Dec 21, 2010 4:04am
today is exactly one of those days why I don't buy into the myth that the time around christmas is bad for trading. Most of my trades have moved nicely into more profits. Hope that ny doesn't take it back down into less profits.

But we definitely have nice volatility today! Let's hope it favors us!
  • #9,676
  • Dec 21, 2010 5:48am Dec 21, 2010 5:48am
Well, I personally do not like to trade this time of the year. Probably because of all these important holidays and my own seasonal mood. I am on 2 weeks break and will resume on Monday January 3.
  • #9,677
  • Dec 21, 2010 9:01am Dec 21, 2010 9:01am
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  • #9,678
  • Dec 23, 2010 7:38am Dec 23, 2010 7:38am
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assuming prices drop from supply, tg subjective, will monitor PA
  • #9,679
  • Dec 23, 2010 7:23pm Dec 23, 2010 7:23pm
Guys, what is your opinion about this account?

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/CuongVC/foundit/70838

It is not me. What I notice is that trading goes without stops but hit rate looks great.
Generally, what do you think of trading without stops?
  • #9,680
  • Dec 24, 2010 2:13am Dec 24, 2010 2:13am
Quoting shiko
Guys, what is your opinion about this account?

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/CuongVC/foundit/70838

It is not me. What I notice is that trading goes without stops but hit rate looks great.
Generally, what do you think of trading without stops?
haha, 99% win-rate? Yeah, this guy seems to be a total genius and found the holy grail, haha.
Oh man, you should know better that such a win rate is impossible to achieve, at least not consistently.

And trading without a stop, a definite no go. Not gonna risk 100 pips or more to make 30 like he does.

Be happy when you get a 50% hit-rate with a good R:R, then you are on the winning path.
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