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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #9,641
  • Dec 19, 2010 2:16pm Dec 19, 2010 2:16pm
Quoting NightMoves
You can set them any way you want them to show up. Go to your Fibo properties and you can set them up pretty much any which you like.

--NM
Yes i see that, but why did the choose 175?
  • #9,642
  • Dec 19, 2010 2:21pm Dec 19, 2010 2:21pm
Quoting PipRiderFX
Hi NightMoves,

Thank you for your response.

If you would be so kind could you please just answer one more question?

Regarding the SMA's how significant are they to your trading? As in would you be as successful in your trades if you completely disregarded the SMA's and only traded the the trends as defined by higher highs and lows or the opposite in a down trend? So maybe not trading such established trends or do you think the SMA'S give you a genuine edge?

Thanks
PipRider,
I really only use those SMA lines as quick visual as how the strong the trend is, and I use them to let me know whether or not the trend may be running out of gas by watching how deep the retracements are getting, they might be swinging nicely say off the 30 SMA for several nice bounces, then pretty soon the price starts digging at the 50, and the soon its playing with the 100, so it is kind of a gauge for me to tell how much strength the trend has, I do not use them to set entries, only to let me know that we have a good strong trend, and to let me know if it might be running out of gas, that make sense?

--NM
  • #9,643
  • Dec 19, 2010 2:22pm Dec 19, 2010 2:22pm
Munal - about FCI indicator one quick question - anybodi knows where i could find this indicator pls?
  • #9,644
  • Dec 19, 2010 2:28pm Dec 19, 2010 2:28pm
Quoting Andy_G
Yes i see that, but why did the choose 175?
When I am trading longer term trends I use the 75% sometimes to let me know its time to get out of the trade, although not always. But I will follw a trend for a long time and base my exits off a retracement off the last impulse and sometimes use the 75% as marker that this trend is retracing too deep, somewhere in a earllier post I posted the method, its a pretty good method as it keeps you in trend longer than you might have been in if you did not have any system inplace for when to let you know its time to get out.

But other than that it is the only time I use the 75% fibs, I may or may not use it as a target for an in impulse its really just arbitrary any fib extension is good.


--NM
  • #9,645
  • Dec 19, 2010 2:30pm Dec 19, 2010 2:30pm
Quoting 21vs7
Munal - about FCI indicator one quick question - anybodi knows where i could find this indicator pls?
You get it with Hectors new course, i'll post the link when i find it.
  • #9,646
  • Dec 19, 2010 2:38pm Dec 19, 2010 2:38pm
Andy,

Check your Messages....

--NM
  • #9,647
  • Dec 19, 2010 2:40pm Dec 19, 2010 2:40pm
Quoting NightMoves
When I am trading longer term trends I use the 75% sometimes to let me know its time to get out of the trade, although not always. But I will follw a trend for a long time and base my exits off a retracement off the last impulse and sometimes use the 75% as marker that this trend is retracing too deep, somewhere in a earllier post I posted the method, its a pretty good method as it keeps you in trend longer than you might have been in if you did not have any system inplace for when to let you know its time to get out.

But other than that it...
ok i understand now.

I too only follow the longer tf's now mainly daily/4h with some success. As soon as i drop down to 1h or lower the 3sma system stops working for me, not sure why as both yourself and hector have used these lower tf's.

Andy

thanks
Andy
  • #9,648
  • Dec 19, 2010 2:43pm Dec 19, 2010 2:43pm
Quoting Andy_G
ok i understand now.

I too only follow the longer tf's now mainly daily/4h with some success. As soon as i drop down to 1h or lower the 3sma system stops working for me, not sure why as both yourself and hector have used these lower tf's.

Andy

thanks
Andy
When using the lower time frames there is a lot of noise, and the targets have to be set much smaller which is one of the reasons I use the larger time frames, I like the top down approach, look at the weekly, the daily, then use the 4H as a setup and watch PA and look for an entry, I have used the 30 minute time frame and had good success with it but the longer time frames are more stable and the PA follows them better than the shorter ones.

--NM
  • #9,649
  • Dec 19, 2010 2:44pm Dec 19, 2010 2:44pm
Quoting Andy_G
You get it with Hectors new course, i'll post the link when i find it.
ok, thanks mate
  • #9,650
  • Dec 19, 2010 2:44pm Dec 19, 2010 2:44pm
Quoting NightMoves
PipRider,
I really only use those SMA lines as quick visual as how the strong the trend is, and I use them to let me know whether or not the trend may be running out of gas by watching how deep the retracements are getting, they might be swinging nicely say off the 30 SMA for several nice bounces, then pretty soon the price starts digging at the 50, and the soon its playing with the 100, so it is kind of a gauge for me to tell how much strength the trend has, I do not use them to set entries, only to let me know that we have a good strong trend,...
Hi NightMoves,

yes I believe I understand what you are saying. So do they have to be in order for you to take the trade though? Should they be a good distance apart and pointing in the direction of the trend or does that not really matter?

Thanks again
  • #9,651
  • Dec 19, 2010 2:50pm Dec 19, 2010 2:50pm
Quoting PipRiderFX
Hi NightMoves,

yes I believe I understand what you are saying. So do they have to be in order for you to take the trade though? Should they be a good distance apart and pointing in the direction of the trend or does that not really matter?

Thanks again
I like to see them in order on the time frame I am trading, but I dont always do that, the thing to do is look at different time frames and see which time frame the trend looks the best on, and more times than not the SMA's will be in order on the best looking TF and from there you can determine whether or not its a healthy trend or a wild trend, I do not trade it if it is a wild trend, I try to keep the probabilities high by trading nice looking trends if its bouncing like crazy all over the but still going in the direction of the main trend then I will search time frames and see where it looks the best and trade from there or at least determine if I want to trade it.

--NM
  • #9,652
  • Dec 19, 2010 4:01pm Dec 19, 2010 4:01pm
Quoting NightMoves
Yep you nailed it, and like I say having a system with an edge like most trend trading methods have, you have the market on your side and the big money on your side, so basically all trend trading methods have an edgoe in one form or another the key is too follow the plan and use good money management, you can actually have a higher percentage of losing trades and still be making money with good MM skills, that is keep your R:R on every trade where it should be, and I know this has been said over and over but risking 50 pips to make 10 is just not...
totally agree with your statement, especially about the negative R:R ratio. It is not wise to risk 5$ to get 1$ return. It should be the other way around.
  • #9,653
  • Dec 19, 2010 4:03pm Dec 19, 2010 4:03pm
Quoting Pipalicious
Totally agree here.

Many want a system/method handed to them with the hope of making money.

In reality, its the "lazyness" or ignorance from the individual who wont/isnt willing to gather the statistical relevant amount of data that will ultimately inspire him/her with the confidence and discipline neccesary to stick to the method/systems rules.

That and also having extremely clear entry/exit/management techniques.

If...Then.

Plan A, plan B.

This lack of wanting to gather the data necessary is what ultimately creates the ilusion and chacing...
yeah, it comes down to being a scientist. Hell, how do scientists create advances in science & technology? Gathering data and analysing the hell out of it. The same should be done with trading.
  • #9,654
  • Edited 4:51pm Dec 19, 2010 4:36pm | Edited 4:51pm
Quoting PipRiderFX
Hi Custos,

Could you please provide me with some figures on the expectancy when letting your trades run. I have been trying to apply this over the last few months and...
When you let your trades run, you will have a straight, linear equity curve (hopefully up )
When you take profits, you are kind of using a compound effect. Cause you can increase your position size each time.
I am still in the midst of testing, but I think a middle way is the best.
Taking profits but only when very high R:R's are achieved. Currently that is around R:R 10:1 or higher.
Thing is the higher the win-loss, normally the lower the R:R is. Accuracy is high, but profitability not that much. The higher the R:R, the lower the win-loss will be. Accuracy drops, profitability increases.

So, in general, I want to have a high R:R ratio and sacrificing a bit of win-loss. A system with 60% win-loss and R:R of 1:1 might drop its win-loss to 20-30% if you increase the R:R to 1:10. In any case, the second scenario is more difficult to do, cause you have so many losses, but it is in the end the best in terms of profitability.
Not sure if you added to the positions in your profitability numbers. Also I don't know your position sizes (percentage of account). I personally tested out random portfolios of currencies, so can't really say it for the euro as a whole, but 20 to 50% are there to grab in good years, if you let winners just run and add to them. If you take profits you are able to turn it up a notch because of the compounding effect. So it might turn into estimated 70 to 120%. Really depends on the basket of currencies and method traded of course.
But it's a hard road, most trades will be b/e's or losses, and a handful are your winners, so be sure to never miss a trade, cause the winners don't happen all too often.

By the way, those figures are averages, in some years the percentage is much lower, if not slightly negative. But that's the game, you gotta keep it up and try to go through the drawdown without too much wounds.
  • #9,655
  • Dec 19, 2010 8:30pm Dec 19, 2010 8:30pm
Quoting NightMoves
Custos,
I totally agree with you, even the method I use is based on stats, when you look at the charts you are looking at what has laready happened, and that is a stat. SO you look at longer term charts and get a better picture and then make decisions from those past market movements....

As I stated before I have been trading since October 2008. Not much time.
I have no computer skills to program EA for back testing purposes.
I mostly rely on price action feeling I have developed by watching it for up to 15 hours a day for about 2 years. I practically devoted everything to my trading career including changing my job from full to part time. i am back at full time job now for some time.
After joining this thread thanks to you NightMoves, Custos and Mortician I started moving away from trading noise to higher time frames and my ability to let profits run increased probably very considerably.
I am sure were I able to back test I could have better results. For now I rely on my experience and good trading ideas shared here.
  • #9,656
  • Dec 19, 2010 8:32pm Dec 19, 2010 8:32pm
Quoting Custos
Psychology is only important, if a person has no stats on entries, which stops to use, which targets to use,... A person with stats only needs one psychological trait: discipline in keeping with the system and not violating any rules.
So I would say 90% research of profitable patterns, methods / systems, and 10% psychology. And that is just the trait discipline.

Custos, discipline is a part of psychology, which includes patience, discipline, calmness, profit taking and loss cutting and so forth
I still believe that once trader has a method with edge psychology becomes paramount. It is not just my opinion.
  • #9,657
  • Dec 19, 2010 8:41pm Dec 19, 2010 8:41pm
Quoting Custos
When you let your trades run, you will have a straight, linear equity curve (hopefully up )
When you take profits, you are kind of using a compound effect. Cause you can increase your position size each time.
I am still in the midst of testing, but I think a middle way is the best.
Taking profits but only when very high R:R's are achieved. Currently that is around R:R 10:1 or higher.
Thing is the higher the win-loss, normally the lower the R:R is. Accuracy is high, but profitability not that much. The higher the R:R, the lower the win-loss will...

This is a very interesting topic.
I actually tested live intraday strategy with R:R 3:1 last spring.
It was break out strategy. It was doing actually quite fine but because it was intraday, there were sometimes too many failed signals.
so, I was taking all signals with great discipline and cutting losses exactly to the pip at predetermined price.
The strategy had problem as sometimes there was a trap of too many failed signals and one day I lost 20 trades. Risk was about 0.5% per trade...
generally speaking I had stop of 10 pips and take profit of 30 pips.
I traded live... I have to say I went through the hell that day. It took me the rest of the month to trade that loss back.
You might remember I checked all 4H chart pin bars for E/U and G/U over the past 13 months using R:R 1:1.5 to 1:2.
I want to do it again, but I cannot program EA and doing it manually watching all candles day by day. I do not think it is reliable method of back testing. still, results were good. there were around 220 pins and return would be more than 100% in 13 months.
I wonder, how hard it is to program EA? Are you programing MT4 EA to back test your strategies and MM strategy?
  • #9,658
  • Dec 19, 2010 8:44pm Dec 19, 2010 8:44pm
Quoting Custos
yeah, it comes down to being a scientist. Hell, how do scientists create advances in science & technology? Gathering data and analysing the hell out of it. The same should be done with trading.

I agree but not 100%. Trading is not a pure science. Nevertheless, back testing is obviously very helpful and I really want to use this tool but I just cannot learn programing skills as well to do it. I just have no time for this and actually have no desire as I am not a technical type.
Still, I am positive.
I think I have a good feel for where price is going. Not 100% obviously but often enough.
  • #9,659
  • Dec 20, 2010 1:44am Dec 20, 2010 1:44am
Quoting shiko
I agree but not 100%. Trading is not a pure science. Nevertheless, back testing is obviously very helpful and I really want to use this tool but I just cannot learn programing skills as well to do it. I just have no time for this and actually have no desire as I am not a technical type.
Still, I am positive.
I think I have a good feel for where price is going. Not 100% obviously but often enough.
Okay, I will say it again, you don't need to know anything about programming, you can also log the trades manually and then analyze them. No programming required.
  • #9,660
  • Dec 20, 2010 1:57am Dec 20, 2010 1:57am
Quoting shiko
I wonder, how hard it is to program EA? Are you programing MT4 EA to back test your strategies and MM strategy?
no, my programming skills are also limited. For the things I can program, I use multicharts. The rest I do manually. Really, logging a couple of thousand trades just takes a couple of weeks.
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