Trend Trading All Pairs | Page 481 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Trading correlation pairs by using the other pairs 843 replies

28 Pairs Trading Panel (Multi-pairs) 0 replies

Export All pairs or selected pairs to .csv with script 3 replies

Daily Bar Analysis - All Pairs/All Welcome 15 replies

Trend Trading All Currency Pairs 3 replies

Attachments: Trend Trading All Pairs
Exit Attachments

Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #9,601
  • Dec 19, 2010 2:54am Dec 19, 2010 2:54am
Quoting shiko
I do not completely agree with you on this. Statistics is obviously important but trading is more of an art than mere drab statistics.
I can see it from my own trading. My bad months actually results because of psychological issues not because whatever I am doing is not working. For example, November I moved stop on my short GBP/JPY trade and moved significantly. Lost 3 time as much as I originally risked. That was the only trade in a year that I behaved this way. I was not taking profits on another profitably trades and lost some more trades. So,...
that's why I said in another post, you also gotta have the discipline to apply your system consistently.
Concerning trading being an art I completely agree, but even discretionary trading you can quantify in terms of profits and losses, thus you can and should do statistics. Otherwise there is no point whatsoever of keeping a journal.
Statistics just show reality, and not doing statistics will dillute yourself into believing you have a working system when in fact you might not have one.
We probably will never agree on that point, but for me statistics is everything and not doing a statistical analysis of your trades is foolish in my eyes. And again, any kind of trading can be quantified, it is only more complicated to quantifiy discretionary systems, since you have to do everything manually.
  • #9,602
  • Dec 19, 2010 7:38am Dec 19, 2010 7:38am
Quoting Custos
that's why I said in another post, you also gotta have the discipline to apply your system consistently.
Concerning trading being an art I completely agree, but even discretionary trading you can quantify in terms of profits and losses, thus you can and should do statistics. Otherwise there is no point whatsoever of keeping a journal.
Statistics just show reality, and not doing statistics will dillute yourself into believing you have a working system when in fact you might not have one.
We probably will never agree on that point, but for me statistics...

whatever method I am trading my overall statistics says I will be fine and profitable as long as I cut my losses short.
last 6 months:
+5%, +6%, +5.7%, +6%, -6%, +4%. November took me back. DD should not have been more than 1-2%. i am not sure about how m,uch but one trade alone took me 2% more than I planned, plus no taking profits. I need to go into history and check it trade by trade. but the fact that I had 200 pips on Eur/Chf and around 100 on 2 other trades and got nothing obviously set me back as well.
  • #9,603
  • Dec 19, 2010 7:42am Dec 19, 2010 7:42am
also entries from 4 hours and daily chart increases odds that signals are not false. Hence patience.
  • #9,604
  • Dec 19, 2010 8:29am Dec 19, 2010 8:29am
Hi NightMoves

any setups you're looking at?

Andy
  • #9,605
  • Dec 19, 2010 8:37am Dec 19, 2010 8:37am
Quoting Custos
Not sure what you mean with stats are not to see.

My take on trading is that statistics is the only thing that counts. If a method is profitable or not can only be determined by that.
Even logical methods are sometimes not profitable. That's why I only look at the stats.
Custos,
I totally agree with you, even the method I use is based on stats, when you look at the charts you are looking at what has laready happened, and that is a stat. SO you look at longer term charts and get a better picture and then make decisions from those past market movements. A trend shows up on chart becasue of history of price, S/R levels are history of price thats how its done, the reversal patterns are past history of where prices have been and now perhaps where they might go...Moving average lines are a history of price, stats if you will.

But they all mean something and trading is done on those movements and so forth, no one knows with 100% certainty what the market will do but based on previous movements one can increase the chances of a winning trade by analyzing those movements.

But its all stats when you think about it, sure the news plays a huge role but thats another story....Hahaa

--NM
  • #9,606
  • Dec 19, 2010 8:43am Dec 19, 2010 8:43am
Quoting Andy_G
Hi NightMoves

any setups you're looking at?

Andy
HI Andy,

I just turned the puter on and will be looking to see if anything looks good, I normally dont take long term trades this time of year but I would take the shorter trades for sure, so me get the plat form up and running and see what we can come up with...

--NM
  • #9,607
  • Dec 19, 2010 8:55am Dec 19, 2010 8:55am
Quoting NightMoves
Custos,
I totally agree with you, even the method I use is based on stats, when you look at the charts you are looking at what has laready happened, and that is a stat. SO you look at longer term charts and get a better picture and then make decisions from those past market movements....
This is called trading patterns which have higher probability of success.
Higher TF patterns tend to be more reliable.
But in the end, psychology is 90% of trading success.
  • #9,608
  • Dec 19, 2010 9:04am Dec 19, 2010 9:04am
Quoting Andy_G
Hi NightMoves

any setups you're looking at?

Andy
Well here is one scenario that I will be watching, its the USDCAD. Whether it plays out or not I dont know but its worth watching I think.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD H4.png Size: 39 KB
  • #9,609
  • Dec 19, 2010 9:23am Dec 19, 2010 9:23am
Quoting shiko
This is called trading patterns which have higher probability of success.
Higher TF patterns tend to be more reliable.
But in the end, psychology is 90% of trading success.
Trading patterns are history presented on a chart that tell a story, and in turn represent a statistic of what has happend in the past when that pattern appeared before at S/R level and what could happen in the future when the pattern appears again at S/R level.

Yes the longer time frames hold more wieght than the shorter time frames fo sure, and psychology is really 90% of trading, seems many people get overcome by the psychology of it all, closing trades too early, moving stops in direction other than in the profit direction and so forth you know the story. It happens or has happened to all of us.

It really comes down to the faith you have in the method you are trading, if you are not really sure of your method you may get caught up in closing too soon, or moving your stop when you shouldnt...etc

The more you practice a method that has had good results the better you get at it and the less are your chances that you will close the trade too early or panic because the market has moved against you, and above all things good money management is the real key to success, not winning trades and not losing trades, its MM, one can lose many more trades than they win and still be in profits and show good income.

There are many traders who think they need to win every trade to be profitable but you dont, and should not expect to win every trade, they only need to follow a a good MM system and a proven trading method or style and be patient.

There are a lot of methods that doomed from the start as we all know, the best advice is find one you like, learn it inside and out, keep track of your winning and losing trades, take notes, chart snapshots, and review what went right and what went wrong, and from there you can build on only the things that went right and avoid the things that went wrong and watch your winning percentage start to increase.

Wow that was long winded...

--NM
  • #9,610
  • Dec 19, 2010 9:43am Dec 19, 2010 9:43am
Quoting shiko
This is called trading patterns which have higher probability of success.
Higher TF patterns tend to be more reliable.
But in the end, psychology is 90% of trading success.
I had sent a few of the members that frequent this thread those who I had emails for a journal for logging their trades, the journal is quite extensive and I dont know how many use it and how many dont, but I know it has shed light on some of the trades I took winning and losing trades, and I was able to correct some mistakes and improve the over all win loss ratio.

Keeping a journal is a very important part of trading, just as learning how to read the charts is important, knowing which kinds of entries and which kinds of patterns you traded over a period of a number of trades, and which ones proved to work more.

By logging all that information you can see which patterns and entry types have worked the best over time and concentrate on those, and really forget about the others, it increases your win loss ratio when you have a way to sort all of that out and look at the outcomes and it simplifies the trading even more because now you are looking for only specific types of setups, and only at specific areas of the chart, so the more you can simplify it the better your trading will get.

--NM
  • #9,611
  • Dec 19, 2010 9:56am Dec 19, 2010 9:56am
Hi NightMoves Gr8 2 see you ........ want to ask one questions......

Based on below attachment can i ask some question.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: index.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #9,612
  • Dec 19, 2010 9:57am Dec 19, 2010 9:57am
Quoting NightMoves
I had sent a few of the members that frequent this thread those who I had emails for a journal for logging their trades, the journal is quite extensive and I dont know how many use it and how many dont, but I know it has shed light on some of the trades I took winning and losing trades, and I was able to correct some mistakes and improve the over all win loss ratio.

Keeping a journal is a very important part of trading, just as learning how to read the charts is important, knowing which kinds of entries and which kinds of patterns you traded...
Heres a snapshot of the mistakes chart I have in my Journal for keeping track of mistakes, winning trades are also charted so you can see which types of entries and time frames are working the best. Like I say maybe overkill, ( record a lot of data from each trade) but the markets are relentless and I will use all available weapons...LOL This snapshot is from the template.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FX Journal Snapshot.png Size: 340 KB
  • #9,613
  • Dec 19, 2010 10:00am Dec 19, 2010 10:00am
Quoting Munal
Hi NightMoves Gr8 2 see you ........ want to ask one questions......

Based on below attachment can i ask some question.....
I will answer it if I can
  • #9,614
  • Dec 19, 2010 10:02am Dec 19, 2010 10:02am
Quoting NightMoves
I will answer it if I can
On the Dashboard on 15tf chart...... JPY is strong and CHF is weaker so this means we have to look for pair to short on CHFJPY is it true...... and
one more question how you define 15mtf EURUSD........ USD has
some strength and EU has some weakness at present this means
can we look for opportunity to short EU or pair should be +5 and -5
  • #9,615
  • Dec 19, 2010 10:10am Dec 19, 2010 10:10am
Quoting Munal
On the Dashboard on 15tf chart...... JPY is strong and CHF is weaker so this means we have to look for pair to short on CHFJPY is it true...... and
one more question how you define 15mtf EURUSD........ USD has
some strength and EU has some weakness at present this means
can we look for opportunity to short EU or pair should be +5 and -5
Yes that is correct, but remember that FCI is only an indicator and you would still look to trade in the direction of the trend, so if the FCI is saying you should go long and the trend is really down, then I would not take the trade and I would wait and trade with the trend because the FCI could be showing just retracement strength. SO alway be aware of the trend direction before following any indicator. Hope thathelps some.

--NM
  • #9,616
  • Dec 19, 2010 10:15am Dec 19, 2010 10:15am
Quoting NightMoves
Yes that is correct, but remember that FCI is only an indicator and you would still look to trade in the direction of the trend, so if the FCI is saying you should go long and the trend is really down, then I would not take the trade and I would wait and trade with the trend because the FCI could be showing just retracement strength. SO alway be aware of the trend direction before following any indicator. Hope thathelps some.

--NM
Thanks for prompt reply and it really helped to short my doubt ...... So a trend direction and FCI signals match together produce us a nice trade opportunity.......

Thanks a lot NightMoves for your quick response
  • #9,617
  • Dec 19, 2010 10:20am Dec 19, 2010 10:20am
Quoting Munal
Thanks for prompt reply and it really helped to short my doubt ...... So a trend direction and FCI signals match together produce us a nice trade opportunity.......

Thanks a lot NightMoves for your quick response
Yes it can, but you still need to analyze the chart to look for a good entry level and of course that encompasses looking the S/R levels and watching for the reversal patterns and breaking of any trendlines you may have drawn and anything else you may have in your trading plan to happen before you enter.

--NM
  • #9,618
  • Dec 19, 2010 10:35am Dec 19, 2010 10:35am
Quoting NightMoves
Heres a snapshot of the mistakes chart I have in my Journal for keeping track of mistakes, winning trades are also charted so you can see which types of entries and time frames are working the best. Like I say maybe overkill, ( record a lot of data from each trade) but the markets are relentless and I will use all available weapons...LOL This snapshot is from the template.

--NM
Here is another Screen shot of how I log my entries by setup type to kind of sort out which setups on which time frames work the best for the method I am trading, this journal is based on the method I use and based on the type of setups I look to trade in my trading plan. Also the the mistake types are listed and charted. It might give some ideas for starting your own journals to keep track of your trades, I also keep snap shots of the charts and can link them through the journal so if I need to look at the chart later all I have to do is click on the link and it opens that chart.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FX Journal Snapshot trade type.png Size: 51 KB
  • #9,619
  • Edited 11:04am Dec 19, 2010 10:44am | Edited 11:04am
Quoting NightMoves
Here is another Screen shot of how I log my entries by setup type to kind of sort out which setups on which time frames work the best for the method I am trading, this journal is based on the method I use and based on the type of setups I look to trade in my trading plan. Also the the mistake types are listed and charted. It might give some ideas for starting your own journals to keep track of your trades, I also keep snap shots of the charts and can link them through the journal so if I need to look at the chart later all I have to do is click...
OK one more image for those wanting to create a journal, keeping track of the monthly totals is a good way to mark your progress as well, like I say I may have overkilled this a bit because of all the imformation I am keeping track of but for me it seems to work quite well, just some ideas for those wanting to track there trading progress and see where improvements are needed, its amazing over a course of time how many times a person will make the same mistake and not even know it until you start looking at the trades you took.

--NM

I added one more image showing a closer view of the trade setups and type of trades that are logged.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly Journal data.png Size: 197 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Type of Trade.png Size: 30 KB
  • #9,620
  • Dec 19, 2010 11:09am Dec 19, 2010 11:09am
Quoting shiko
This is called trading patterns which have higher probability of success.
Higher TF patterns tend to be more reliable.
But in the end, psychology is 90% of trading success.
Psychology is only important, if a person has no stats on entries, which stops to use, which targets to use,... A person with stats only needs one psychological trait: discipline in keeping with the system and not violating any rules.
So I would say 90% research of profitable patterns, methods / systems, and 10% psychology. And that is just the trait discipline.
4 traders viewing now