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Vwb Chapter 3 Study

  • #41
  • Feb 12, 2006 10:37am Feb 12, 2006 10:37am
Quoting HeavyJ
LambrechtJ

Your descriptions are in line with the evidence I have seen walking through the "Cable". This could be one application as related to VWB.

If this postulate interests you, I suggest you download my chart zip in post #3 (Feb 2002 to present) and look for yourself.....derive your own conclusions...hopefully you will post variations or paradoxes here for the rest of us to see.

NOTE: While I am excited about the prospects of this study. I don't believe it to be axiomatic. Can anything ever really be.....in a marble game? But as for the Cable....It looks pretty Damn good to me.

At this point I consider this study extremely valuable, but look at the charts. It is also very broadstroke! Far from a Red light Green light system. Or a system at all at this point. But I believe it has the potential to strengthen the toolbox of any system!

NOTE 2: After getting a nod from wize council that I could be pursueing something positive here. I felt that I should share it with the group. I don't have a bunch of answers. Some of you will gleen far more from this than I have at this juncture.

But I owe this all to Vegas who has enriched my journey enumerally! He has asked nothing in return and continues to share! I am very greatful. I have vowed that I will make it a principle of mine to ....Pay it Forward.

I can't imagine what it means to Vegas to have made such an impact in the Bonehead community!

HeavyJ
I went back to the beginning of this year and started to put in the green and red lines for the WM changes as you showed on your charts.

I did this the bonehead way just by looking at the weekly chart with the 5 sma and 21 ema and I also took a look at the 4hr chart.

Noticed when ever there was a major WM change the 8 sma crossed the 55 sma on 4hr for the major moves which caused the daily charts to go into the Bullish or Bearish trends or break throught the channels.

I also noticed once the daily was on the Bullish or Bearish side of the daily that in the 4 hr chart after it finished its surge and started ranging mode that was a cross over on the 8 sma and the 55 sma on the 4hr there is a close encounter or breach of the Channel on the daily chart. Anyone notice this?

I think your discovery is fantastic and I have nothing to add or subtract from it. It does not change anything Vegas has brought to light in his revealations on vwb it only adds credibility to it as it seems that is the very reason you take 50% and take care of the stops near the channel.
  • #42
  • Feb 12, 2006 11:46am Feb 12, 2006 11:46am
Hi Bemac
Quoting Bemac
Sorry Firehose, I didn't dnld your spreadsheet to check but the date you mention just jumps out at me as boxing day [holiday]. Could that be affecting your Calcs?

B
When I match the difference in weekly close, they are usually within about 20 pips of each other.

Just looking at the EMA21-EMA5 differences, it 'appears' that HeavyJ figures is running 1 week ahead.

HeavyJ, Firehorse
2005.12.05-296, week ending 18/12/05-226
2005.12.12-184, week ending 25/12/05-191
2005.12.19-220, week ending 01/01/06-225
2005.12.26-267, week ending 08/01/06-194

So until that last line, the two spreadsheet were keeping in step with each 'trendwise'.

It could be a combination of close differences as the weekly close differences were
-32
-18
+18
-5

The -18 to +18 adds up to 36pt difference from the previous so could be the factor changing the trend.

Best regards
Alan
  • #43
  • Feb 12, 2006 3:45pm Feb 12, 2006 3:45pm
Quoting kester_albo
Heavy J,


Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems to me that you are plotting the week before to the momentum change. In other words the momentum change haven't happened yet on the vertical lines on your charts. This is based on a 21EMA (median) and a 5EMA (close).

I created a trade station indicator for the momentum change base on your same parameters ( 21EMA (median) and a 5EMA (close)) and the results don't look to good.

But don't get discourage and keep the good work, i think you are on the right track to find something interesting.

Kester
Kester
Thanx for posting Kester, I agree with you on this!

Looks like I'm due a large slice of humble pie (bonehead ala mode)

Firehorse and Shan have already flagged me with concerns and I've spent the better part of the day reworking my charts and sheets.

The fact that I used EMA CLOSE instead of SMA MEDIAN skews the results considerably.

Add to that the misplotting of the weekly bars and things get tougher quickly.

I had Re Plotted all WM changes (shift one week to the right)and applied V4T 5sma Median....... After acouple of hours I accidently deleted the chart.

The bottom line is THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK!

Before my Chart was deleted I notice several instances were Black Dot entries crossed to the opposite extremes (counter the Weekly Momentum Trend)

Having said that......I'm not throwing in the towel. Maybe I will plot weeklys with EMA Close.....It's not pure Vegas but the effects seem profitable.

another thing to consider is that PF members can get an indicator that can chnge the WM in Real time greatly reducing the lag.

We will see!

Thank you and every one else who helped me chase this down.

I'm apologize for any confusion I may have caused

Back to the drawing board!!!

HeavyJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #44
  • Feb 12, 2006 6:54pm Feb 12, 2006 6:54pm
Quoting HeavyJ
Thanx for posting Kester, I agree with you on this!

Looks like I'm due a large slice of humble pie (bonehead ala mode)

Firehorse and Shan have already flagged me with concerns and I've spent the better part of the day reworking my charts and sheets.

The fact that I used EMA CLOSE instead of SMA MEDIAN skews the results considerably.

Add to that the misplotting of the weekly bars and things get tougher quickly.

I had Re Plotted all WM changes (shift one week to the right)and applied V4T 5sma Median....... After acouple of hours I accidently deleted the chart.

The bottom line is THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK!

Before my Chart was deleted I notice several instances were Black Dot entries crossed to the opposite extremes (counter the Weekly Momentum Trend)

Having said that......I'm not throwing in the towel. Maybe I will plot weeklys with EMA Close.....It's not pure Vegas but the effects seem profitable.

another thing to consider is that PF members can get an indicator that can chnge the WM in Real time greatly reducing the lag.

We will see!

Thank you and every one else who helped me chase this down.

I'm apologize for any confusion I may have caused

Back to the drawing board!!!

HeavyJ
Hey HJ, please don't get discouraged...Your analysis and theory makes perfect sense and all we need to do is find the mathematical connections.. If everything goes well, then what you found is a perfect relation between 4H and VWB. Don't hesitate to count me if you need any data analysis assistance...

Thanks,
Shan
  • #45
  • Edited 10:31pm Feb 12, 2006 8:53pm | Edited 10:31pm
Quoting HeavyJ
Thanx for posting Kester, I agree with you on this!

Looks like I'm due a large slice of humble pie (bonehead ala mode)

Firehorse and Shan have already flagged me with concerns and I've spent the better part of the day reworking my charts and sheets.

The fact that I used EMA CLOSE instead of SMA MEDIAN skews the results considerably.

Add to that the misplotting of the weekly bars and things get tougher quickly.

I had Re Plotted all WM changes (shift one week to the right)and applied V4T 5sma Median....... After acouple of hours I accidently deleted the chart.

The bottom line is THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK!

Before my Chart was deleted I notice several instances were Black Dot entries crossed to the opposite extremes (counter the Weekly Momentum Trend)

Having said that......I'm not throwing in the towel. Maybe I will plot weeklys with EMA Close.....It's not pure Vegas but the effects seem profitable.

another thing to consider is that PF members can get an indicator that can chnge the WM in Real time greatly reducing the lag.

We will see!

Thank you and every one else who helped me chase this down.

I'm apologize for any confusion I may have caused

Back to the drawing board!!!

HeavyJ
HJ,

On scanning thru the weekly and daily charts, I found something which might be interesting to you..

When ever 5sma is trending way away from 21ema and the price is NOT closer to 21ema, the tunnel almost never gets broken or the other side of the fib is not reached. This assumes that the slope of 5sma should not change during that period.

For example look at the weekly chart during 2003.09.21 till 2004.02.22, the 5 is going pretty steep..no change of direction of slope of 5 and the price is staying way away from 21ema.

Now look at the daily chart during that period. Price broke the tunnel UP on 2003.09.09 and was on NORTH side of tunnel till 2004.02.23. Even though it broken the tunnel twice during that period, it NEVER touched the lower extreme fibs..

Another example..

Look at the weekly chart from 2005.09.11 to 2005.11.27, 5 sma was nicely trending away from 21ema. When we look at daily chart the upper fib was touched on 2005.09.06 and started moving south. It never touched the upper fib again till 2005.11.23.

After this, weekly 5sma started changing direction and more importantly, price was pretty much piercing 21ema quite often which indicates a bit of a ranging marktet and we can see the swings on both sides.

I was able to pick many such scenarios during last 10 years.

What I'm trying to bring to the table is, your theory of weekly chart impacting VWB is very true when weekly trend is very strong. When ever the weekly 5sma is closer to 21 ema or whenever price is closer to 21 ema, then daily trend dominates the picture and it decides the logic of swinging between the two fib extremes.

Just loose thoughts from this bonehead..don't take it seriously if this sounds cranky ;-)

Shan
Attached Images
  • #46
  • Feb 12, 2006 9:06pm Feb 12, 2006 9:06pm
Quoting vishalshan
Hey HJ, please don't get discouraged...Your analysis and theory makes perfect sense and all we need to do is find the mathematical connections.. If everything goes well, then what you found is a perfect relation between 4H and VWB. Don't hesitate to count me if you need any data analysis assistance...

Thanks,
Shan
I still think your discovery is great just the way it is, The probability is there that when there is a major weekly change on the weekly chart the chance of breaking through the daily channel going to the Bearish or Bullish side is there.

Why does it need to be mathamaticly proved 5 ema versus 5 sma, since in this business nothing is finite. My son is a math wizz and he laughs when I show him this charting stuff because as a math type person he wants everything absolute.

In the first VWB document this was mentioned after listing the rules on how to trade in chapter 2.

"All I’m attempting to do is find where the market exhausts itself for a nice move in the other direction. Will this be the start of the next big trend? Who cares?"


So adding this new knowledge gives a probability that because there was a weekly change there is a chance of blasting through the channel.
  • #47
  • Feb 13, 2006 1:21am Feb 13, 2006 1:21am
Quoting HeavyJ
....another thing to consider is that PF members can get an indicator that can chnge the WM in Real time greatly reducing the lag.
The indicator that HJ mentioned does display the UP or DOWN state of the WM in realtime. However, the indicator is not exclusive to the PF. It was developed by Team Aphid prior to the launch of the PF for use by anyone.

I've attached it to this posts if anyone is interested. Please note, it is for use on the 4 hour charts ONLY.

Dial
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 FF Tunnel Chart.mq4   6 KB | 642 downloads
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #48
  • Feb 14, 2006 5:47pm Feb 14, 2006 5:47pm
Another visual representation of prior notes.......

HJ
Attached Image
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #49
  • Feb 15, 2006 6:30pm Feb 15, 2006 6:30pm
hey HJ, is the dotted line the 5SMA close?
  • #50
  • Mar 8, 2006 11:25am Mar 8, 2006 11:25am
Quoting jotty
hey HJ, is the dotted line the 5SMA close?
Hey Jotty,

sorry I missed your question.

The answer is yes!
HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #51
  • Mar 8, 2006 6:57pm Mar 8, 2006 6:57pm
Quoting HeavyJ
Another visual representation of prior notes.......
HJ
Well, since you asked for thoughts..
I'm really not sure if this will have any bearing anymore since I know you're already doing the research... (if you still need encouragement, I just want to say that I salute you in your efforts)

Anyway, my thoughts are:
The EMA gives more weight on the latest price right, while the SMA gives equal weights to price.

So maybe I think that would be the reason for the "anticipation" of the EMA to the trend..

Sometimes, great inventions come from accidents... Or maybe I'm just making that up..
  • #52
  • Mar 8, 2006 7:25pm Mar 8, 2006 7:25pm
Quoting eastmaels
Well, since you asked for thoughts..
I'm really not sure if this will have any bearing anymore since I know you're already doing the research... (if you still need encouragement, I just want to say that I salute you in your efforts)

Anyway, my thoughts are:
The EMA gives more weight on the latest price right, while the SMA gives equal weights to price.

So maybe I think that would be the reason for the "anticipation" of the EMA to the trend..

Sometimes, great inventions come from accidents... Or maybe I'm just making that up..
Thanx East,

I'm always down for comments from others. Especially when they are "plugged in" like you are.

Its true what you say about favoring latest price in the ema. in addition the sma does not have the smoothing function.

The Ladybug now lives on all of my weekly charts along with the 5ema/med.
It has great potential value after the print. I am really taking notice on this. But it is not and end all!

Thanx for the encouragement.

HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #53
  • Mar 8, 2006 8:52pm Mar 8, 2006 8:52pm
I am a newbie but still cheeky enough(or new enough) to put in an opinion.

Vegas has utilised WD Gann to factor his MA tunnels and Fib Points. He has used the 21EMA a FIB number and the 5 SMA another FIB number on the weekly to formulate the weekly trend.
I assume he has picked 5 and 21 as they are not only Gann numbers but allow allow enough space, (but not too much space) to analyse momentum changes in the price action and therefore indicate the long term trend.

As the 21 EMA is furthest away from the price action I assume he used the more weighted exponential MA to keep it tighter to the price movements.
I wonder if using a 5 EMA would cause smaller fluctuations with the 21EMA as they would tend to move more in concert than the %SMA and 21 EMA??

I assume he used the 5 SMA to allow the MA some breathing space to reflect the difference between the two moving averages.

I would be interested to know Heavy if you have found with your studies of the 5 EMA and 5 SMA , much difference between the 2 MA's in their ability to indicate the momentum changes.

I hope that your study on the weekly sling shot effect can be validated, it makes too much sense not to have some credibility.

Also I have been missing your charts and comments, they are always instructive even if the humour is some what bent
  • #54
  • Mar 11, 2006 9:43am Mar 11, 2006 9:43am
Quoting Lindsay
I am a newbie but still cheeky enough(or new enough) to put in an opinion.

Vegas has utilised WD Gann to factor his MA tunnels and Fib Points. He has used the 21EMA a FIB number and the 5 SMA another FIB number on the weekly to formulate the weekly trend.
I assume he has picked 5 and 21 as they are not only Gann numbers but allow allow enough space, (but not too much space) to analyse momentum changes in the price action and therefore indicate the long term trend.

As the 21 EMA is furthest away from the price action I assume he used the more weighted exponential MA to keep it tighter to the price movements.
I wonder if using a 5 EMA would cause smaller fluctuations with the 21EMA as they would tend to move more in concert than the %SMA and 21 EMA??

I assume he used the 5 SMA to allow the MA some breathing space to reflect the difference between the two moving averages.

I would be interested to know Heavy if you have found with your studies of the 5 EMA and 5 SMA , much difference between the 2 MA's in their ability to indicate the momentum changes.

I hope that your study on the weekly sling shot effect can be validated, it makes too much sense not to have some credibility.

Also I have been missing your charts and comments, they are always instructive even if the humour is some what bent
Lindsay,

I think I understand your assertions on the vegas 5ma. I would agree. The "Ladybug" SMA is nearly useless in the current bar it does however anticipate Vegas MA weekly momentum changes by one week with more than a fair modicum of accuracy.

The proof is in the pudding tho......and it's not over till the fat lady sings.....Just remember that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

Don't take any wooden nickles!!!!

HeavyJ
Attached Image
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #55
  • Edited Apr 22, 2006 12:13am Mar 11, 2006 10:57am | Edited Apr 22, 2006 12:13am
Quoting HeavyJ
...The proof is in the pudding tho......and it's not over till the fat lady sings.....Just remember that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Don't take any wooden nickles!!!!
http://accrete.com/emo/Blowing_Bubbles.gif
HeavyJ, I think you've got waaaay to much reading time on your hands. You've been expanding your vocabulary reading checkout stand novels. (grin)

Thom
  • #56
  • Mar 11, 2006 12:42pm Mar 11, 2006 12:42pm
Quoting accrete
http://www.accrete.com/emo/Blowing_Bubbles.gif
HeavyJ, I think you've got waaaay to much reading time on your hands. You've been expanding your vocabulary reading checkout stand novels. (grin)

Thom
I promise.....reading is the next thing I'm going to learn! Once I master reading maybe I can at last transcend the mundane. Heh Heh....

HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #57
  • Mar 11, 2006 10:13pm Mar 11, 2006 10:13pm
Quoting HeavyJ
LambrechtJ

Your descriptions are in line with the evidence I have seen walking through the "Cable". This could be one application as related to VWB.

If this postulate interests you, I suggest you download my chart zip in post #3 (Feb 2002 to present) and look for yourself.....derive your own conclusions...hopefully you will post variations or paradoxes here for the rest of us to see.

NOTE: While I am excited about the prospects of this study. I don't believe it to be axiomatic. Can anything ever really be.....in a marble game? But as for the Cable....It looks pretty Damn good to me.

At this point I consider this study extremely valuable, but look at the charts. It is also very broadstroke! Far from a Red light Green light system. Or a system at all at this point. But I believe it has the potential to strengthen the toolbox of any system!

NOTE 2: After getting a nod from wize council that I could be pursueing something positive here. I felt that I should share it with the group. I don't have a bunch of answers. Some of you will gleen far more from this than I have at this juncture.

But I owe this all to Vegas who has enriched my journey enumerally! He has asked nothing in return and continues to share! I am very greatful. I have vowed that I will make it a principle of mine to ....Pay it Forward.

I can't imagine what it means to Vegas to have made such an impact in the Bonehead community!

HeavyJ

Accrete;
I agree. HeavyJ is the only self defined "Bonehead" I know that uses words like "enumerally" and "axiomatic".

Thanks for making me break out the dictionary Heavy J.

Heavy,
Thanks for sharing all of your thoughts. I am going to Demo with your observations. I don't quite understand the "Lady Bug" yet. Its the next study item to attack on my list. I just need to read the previous posts a couple more times and think on it.
  • #58
  • Mar 13, 2006 8:33pm Mar 13, 2006 8:33pm
Hi HJ,

I think GBPUSD is a perfect Wind Tunnel?
Have you any updates for us on the entries and exits for it?

Just my input though, though I think you have more idea from this
since you are already working on it...
(BTW, I still haven't read the whole of this thread yet.. But I think
I already have a good grasp of the concept. )

Anyway, I'm thinking of only 2 lots for it..
One for the cross of the 4H tunnel and the other for a slope change..

Anyway, this is just a quick observation though..
Still also observing it too...

So again, I say, very nice HJ.. very nice indeed...

That's all.

Regards,
East
  • #59
  • Mar 17, 2006 7:30pm Mar 17, 2006 7:30pm
Before I get started let it be known I'm a severe newbie. That being said:

Just wanting to see if I have the general idea here. If the weekly momentum is with the VWB direction, price will typically find the opposite extreme of the fib lines. If against, it tends to stall around the daily channel. If the previous is accurate, I take the following away from it:

If weekly momentum is with the VWB move, you could hypothetically let most of your position run, allowing for maximum gains. If weekly momentum is against, you could close most of your positions at the tunnel, locking in profits, avoiding the reversal the weekly momentum tends to create.

Again, I'm VERY new, have been looking over the VWB for a few days and have yet to come remotely close to fully understanding the entire sphere of it all. Please take this into consideration so that while tearing this post apart can be done as gently as possible..
  • #60
  • Mar 17, 2006 9:10pm Mar 17, 2006 9:10pm
Quoting NeoEx
Before I get started let it be known I'm a severe newbie. That being said:

Just wanting to see if I have the general idea here. If the weekly momentum is with the VWB direction, price will typically find the opposite extreme of the fib lines. If against, it tends to stall around the daily channel. If the previous is accurate, I take the following away from it:

If weekly momentum is with the VWB move, you could hypothetically let most of your position run, allowing for maximum gains. If weekly momentum is against, you could close most of your positions at the tunnel, locking in profits, avoiding the reversal the weekly momentum tends to create.

Again, I'm VERY new, have been looking over the VWB for a few days and have yet to come remotely close to fully understanding the entire sphere of it all. Please take this into consideration so that while tearing this post apart can be done as gently as possible..
As an addendum...
"If the weekly momentum is with the VWB direction, price will typically find the opposite extreme of the fib lines. If against, it tends to stall around the daily channel."

Therefore my question is...
Should we be looking for 2 Fib Lines of Interest. One that is going with the daily or longer trend [depending on Model # perhaps Fib 3] and One that is against the trend [Perhaps Fib 1 or 2]
Just a thought.

B
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