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Vwb Chapter 3 Study

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Edited 10:33pm Feb 10, 2006 10:20pm | Edited 10:33pm
  •  HeavyJ
  • | Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Member | 254 Posts
Part 1

As many of you may have gathered from my posts and charts, I have a passion for the Vegas Systems. In particularly, the 4hr Tunnel. The potential of that model absolutely “screamed” at me.

It gave me new direction and focus to my strategies. We have engaged in several discussions of V4T merits in the Lost in The Tunnel thread. Dials immense understanding of it’s application has helped many of us. PF members have benefited from intense, thorough instruction of Dial’s “Knife” system based on the 4hr Model.

Just when I think “life is good” and “how could it be better?” Vegas, himself comes to answer questions in our forum and offers up his most astounding file yet, THE VEGAS WEALTH BUILDER. Vegas you never cease to amaze me!

I apply his guides to my charts and the probabilities jump out at me. (without RSI, Bolinger Bands, Stochastics, Full Moons, Black Cats, Numerology, Harmonic Convergence…….ect.)

The VWB has me floored. We are all interested in further understanding of this intense document. I read the VWB discussion several times a day and many of you seem to be getting a grounding in the concepts. I am lagging somewhat in my integrating this system…… but I will Persevere. The potential dictates I do so. But I digress….Back to the 4Hr Model!

I would never look a gift horse in the mouth but if anything were to bug me about the 4hr model it was this: COUNTER-TREND STRATEGY. Or lack thereof. Following an 8MA hook aligned with the current Weekly Trend, then a follow through profit run, It was necessary to wait for the market to correct. This correction would usually be powerful but there was no signal in the model to profit from the move. I would ride the animal up the bull hill but had no way to catch a “bear” down against the trend. If you followed the rules of the 4hr model, you know what I’m Talking about. What was needed was a way to signal the ”exhaustion” of the move.

Voila! VWB…..Thank you sir.

To make a short story long…..

The general consensus is now that the Black Dot trend from the VWB, supercedes the Weekly Trend in the 4hr Model. This postulate has bugged me from the start. The power of the Weekly Trend in V4T is undeniable to me. How can it be negated or relegated to obscurity with the advent or rather discovery of the “Black Dot” trend? (not withstanding it’s own awesome power.)

A week or two, following the release of VWB (Jan 26 ,’06) I was fortunate enough to clumsily enter a black dot “bear” trade. This profitable Trade stalled around the Daily Tunnel and consolidated. With half of my positions closed for profit and the other half at BE, I was in a word: stoked! While watching this “consolidation” I noticed that the 4hr weekly trend was still bullish and that a textbook, primary V4 Tunnel trade was forming so I set it up!

The long trade triggered, I put on 3 full positions, as I do in all primary trades. I closed my remaining shorts for profit. The Long trade sputtered, than took off with strength, across the 55MA and finally stalled just short of P1. (@159pips) retreated and I was Stopped out at BE. OK. I’m a bonehead. I should have covered some for profit. But this Discussion is not about profit (in the strictest sense). This discussion is about PROBABILITIES.

This “Bear to Bull” back to back run excited me with the possibility of the elusive Counter Trend strategy for the V4T but I needed more Data, so I marked every V4T weekly momentum change on my GBP/USD daily chart (VWB indies) back to 1996. I was taken aback at what I saw. I shared it with Dial and Vegas and got a favorable response. Now I would like to share it with you. I know that a study of one pair can be anecdotal. However I think you may agree that the probabilities presented here deserve attention if not respect.

Once again I am still working on entries and exits. This discussion and attached charts will be about the seemingly powerful correlation between the “V4T Weekly Momentum Trend” and the “VWB-Black Dot Trend” whether aligned or opposing!

Take a Look!
Attached Image
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Edited Feb 11, 2006 10:01am Feb 10, 2006 10:23pm | Edited Feb 11, 2006 10:01am
  •  HeavyJ
  • | Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Member | 254 Posts
Part 2



……What I am noticing is that there is only one instance from Feb 2002 to the present when a “Black Dot Entry” crosses the Daily tunnel and completes it’s journey to the opposite “take notice” or “extreme “ lines, when counter to the Weekly Momentum Trend. Most of the time it stalls and reverses somewhere around the tunnel!

When the “Black Dot” & “Weekly Momentum” is aligned the VWB entry tends to cross completely to the opposite extremes. Sometimes a Change in Weekly Momentum will change while a “Black Dot” trade is in progress and further affect the outcome “mid move”

When I explained this to Dial he likened it to a mental image of “opposing winds in the dessert.”

I view it this way:

Weekly Momentum is a powerful force which suggests that prices moves in its direction.

The “Take Notice” or “Extreme” lines are strong rubber bands that stretch till they can’t take it any more then fling the price back towards the tunnel.

When these rubber bands “let fly” counter with the weekly trend, prices tends to get stalled at or around the daily tunnel. Having met an opposing force.

If an entry off the extreme fibs is aligned with the Weekly momentum trend, this momentum tends to act as an ”assist” and helps to push prices to the other extreme.
<EDIT- I left only thr"take noice" fibs on the chart below cause "man" it is busy!>

Looky!
Attached Image
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
 
 
  • Post #3
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  • Feb 10, 2006 10:30pm Feb 10, 2006 10:30pm
  •  HeavyJ
  • | Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Member | 254 Posts
Part 3.



The Chart in the last post says that this hold true back to Dec 2004. I have since checked back much further and I tell you this correlation is remarkable! As to implementation, I defer to your wisdom. This is new to me.

I can see where it may help in gauging the probable strength of a move or maybe integrate into position/risk strategies……..And my Favorite COUNTER TREND 4HT ENTRYS

I intend to plot more Pairs as time permits. If there is an interest I will post them here

I will attach a zip of all charts back to 2002 for your review.

Please let me know what you think about this study. And if you find that I am off base.

If I am wrong ………I plead Bonehead!

Good Trading All!

HeavyJ
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip cable june 05 to current.zip   152 KB | 597 downloads
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
 
 
  • Post #4
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  • Feb 10, 2006 10:38pm Feb 10, 2006 10:38pm
  •  jotty
  • | Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Member | 196 Posts
Thanks for the charts and the explanation HJ
 
 
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Feb 10, 2006 10:56pm Feb 10, 2006 10:56pm
  •  diallist
  • Joined Sep 2004 | Status: Member | 1,464 Posts
HeavyJ!!

Outstanding presentation! Even better than when you discussed it with me last week!

Folks, HeavyJ has really done his homework on this one! This is worth paying attention to!

Great job HeavyJ!!

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
 
 
  • Post #6
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  • Feb 11, 2006 1:53am Feb 11, 2006 1:53am
  •  jotty
  • | Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Member | 196 Posts
HeavyJ does this means that we dont use the weekly trend anymore.

So like we see cable is trading at the important fib number. And if the 4 hour chart gives a signal to buy/sell we will go with it and it most likely will tally with the VMB and turn into a winner. Is that right?
 
 
  • Post #7
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  • Feb 11, 2006 3:02am Feb 11, 2006 3:02am
  •  dongading
  • | Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Member | 2 Posts
Fascinating analysis HeavyJ.

Please keep this thread going. The logic behind your analysis looks spot on to me utilising the early signals that Vegas's systems produce in harmony with the longer dominant trend.................that is unless I'm a bonehead as well !!!!

Great work

Cheers

Chris
 
 
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2006 5:45am Feb 11, 2006 5:45am
  •  anthonybaker
  • | Joined Nov 2005 | Status: Member | 82 Posts
great stuff heavy j
another INTP
 
 
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2006 7:03am Feb 11, 2006 7:03am
  •  Dubya
  • | Joined Aug 2004 | Status: Member | 12 Posts
Heavy J
Top stuff Man you are on to it
Cheers
Dubya
 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2006 7:28am Feb 11, 2006 7:28am
  •  WTB
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Sep 2005 | 1,118 Posts
Damn it, the bonehead virus is spreading cause I didnt quite understand your theory. So, basically, if the major trend is up, you would long the retracements using the 4HT system and you would short the exhaustations off the VWB system?
 
 
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Edited 10:54am Feb 11, 2006 10:46am | Edited 10:54am
  •  raczekfx
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2005 | 2,899 Posts
Quoting HeavyJ
Disliked
Part 3.

...
Please let me know what you think about this study. And if you find that I am off base.
...
Good Trading All!

HeavyJ
Ignored
Hi HeavyJ
This is really great stuff and makes perfect sense.
Thanks for sharing.
During next setup I will experiment with one extra lot. If my trade aligns with a weekly trend sometimes along the way, I will leave one lot until weekly is about to change to opposite direction.
Mark
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2006 11:47am Feb 11, 2006 11:47am
  •  HeavyJ
  • | Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Member | 254 Posts
Quoting jotty
Disliked
HeavyJ does this means that we dont use the weekly trend anymore.

So like we see cable is trading at the important fib number. And if the 4 hour chart gives a signal to buy/sell we will go with it and it most likely will tally with the VMB and turn into a winner. Is that right?
Ignored
Hi Jotty,

I can't and won't tell you what it means. I can tell you what I see as I study and I will gladly. By all appearences the Fib Band "tension" and the WM "pressure" are 2 distinctly different "forces" which can "align with" or "oppose" each other in varying degrees. Very Dynamic! also we must remember that Weekly Momentum lags, considerably, the price action which VWB-Black Dot entries are predicated.

Still...... From my chair, WM cannot be overly discounted.

Hope this helps.

Chart below is typical for the "Cable" from my observations!

Best of Luck
HJ
Attached Image
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2006 12:16pm Feb 11, 2006 12:16pm
  •  firehorse
  • | Joined Mar 2005 | Status: Member | 207 Posts
Hi HeavyJ

Awesome!

We've just got ourselves a new bag

Keep us posted with your research

You do some fantastic charts

Thanks
Alan
 
 
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2006 12:29pm Feb 11, 2006 12:29pm
  •  firehorse
  • | Joined Mar 2005 | Status: Member | 207 Posts
Hi
Quoting HeavyJ
Disliked
Chart below is typical for the "Cable" from my observations!
Ignored
A masterpiece!

You've done a fantastic job of integrating the 4hr and daily. It's only going to take me a week to backtrack through the trades you've marked out So don't skimp on any future examples!

Best regards
Alan
 
 
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:21pm Feb 11, 2006 12:41pm | Edited 4:21pm
  •  HeavyJ
  • | Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Member | 254 Posts
Quoting firehorse
Disliked
HiA masterpiece!

You've done a fantastic job of integrating the 4hr and daily. It's only going to take me a week to backtrack through the trades you've marked out So don't skimp on any future examples!

Best regards
Alan
Ignored
Thanx Alan,

I look forward to your comments, I have admired your backtesting prowess!
I'll be Charting other pairs as time permit. I'll post here as completed.

Thanx for the encouragement
HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
 
 
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2006 12:51pm Feb 11, 2006 12:51pm
  •  HeavyJ
  • | Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Member | 254 Posts
Quoting WTB
Disliked
Damn it, the bonehead virus is spreading cause I didnt quite understand your theory. So, basically, if the major trend is up, you would long the retracements using the 4HT system and you would short the exhaustations off the VWB system?
Ignored
WTB- If you think you may have a Bonehead Virus strain I suggest you get to the Doctor immediatley!

I contracted the Asian Bonehead virus last week which caused me to allow several 100+ pip positions to stop out short the yen! I'm better now.

If you are infected with this heartbreaking maladay the it must be the Euro strain because .....I'm not sure I understand your question.

It may just be a matter of disimilar syntax....talking apples and oranges, about the same thing. I tend to use terminology from the Vegas Docs.

Maybe a chart would help.
Sorry

HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
 
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2006 1:02pm Feb 11, 2006 1:02pm
  •  diallist
  • Joined Sep 2004 | Status: Member | 1,464 Posts
Quoting HeavyJ
Disliked
Hi Jotty,

I can't and won't tell you what it means. I can tell you what I see as I study and I will gladly. By all appearences the Fib Band "tension" and the WM "pressure" are 2 distinctly different "forces" which can "align with" or "oppose" each other in varying degrees. Very Dynamic! also we must remember that Weekly Momentum lags, considerably, the price action which VWB-Black Dot entries are predicated.

Still...... From my chair, WM cannot be overly discounted.

Hope this helps.

Chart below is typical for the "Cable" from my observations!

Best of Luck
HJ
Ignored
Brilliant! Absolutely brilliant! HeavyJ, your concept of marrying the two distinct directional "forces" of the WM and the VWB in either opposing or aiding blends to get a feel for the chance of bounce off the DT or penetration through it are very useful. You've struck gold with this one dude!

If this continues to be as reliable as your backtesting shows, then counter-trend trades of the V4T will add a lot to profits.

In my neck of the woods, only a guy who is built like arnold can get away with wearing a pink shirt. So, only a man who is brilliant can get away with calling himself a Bonehead! I'm not sure I'm smart enough to be a genuine Bonehead, so can I be an honorary Bonehead instead?

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
 
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2006 2:17pm Feb 11, 2006 2:17pm
  •  accrete
  • Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Pips Ahoy! | 1,130 Posts
Quoting diallist
Disliked
...In my neck of the woods, only a guy who is built like arnold can get away with wearing a pink shirt...
Ignored
LOL. I flew down to Sacramento California to visit my parents last week. Upon arival in the Sac Airport i was greeted with T shirts with Arnold-as-the-Terminator with the caption:

THE GOVERNATOR


Only in the good ol USofA
 
 
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2006 2:29pm Feb 11, 2006 2:29pm
  •  quinn
  • | Joined May 2004 | Status: Member | 59 Posts
Quoting diallist
Disliked
Brilliant! Absolutely brilliant! HeavyJ, your concept of marrying the two distinct directional "forces" of the WM and the VWB in either opposing or aiding blends to get a feel for the chance of bounce off the DT or penetration through it are very useful. You've struck gold with this one dude!

If this continues to be as reliable as your backtesting shows, then counter-trend trades of the V4T will add a lot to profits.

In my neck of the woods, only a guy who is built like arnold can get away with wearing a pink shirt. So, only a man who is brilliant can get away with calling himself a Bonehead! I'm not sure I'm smart enough to be a genuine Bonehead, so can I be an honorary Bonehead instead?

Dial
Ignored



I'm with Dial on this, with your insight and hard work, with any luck we might all become "Boneheads"

Good job HeavyJ and thanks!

Quinn
I started out with nothing, and I've got most of it left!
 
 
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2006 2:38pm Feb 11, 2006 2:38pm
  •  HeavyJ
  • | Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Member | 254 Posts
Quoting diallist
Disliked
Brilliant! Absolutely brilliant! HeavyJ, your concept of marrying the two distinct directional "forces" of the WM and the VWB in either opposing or aiding blends to get a feel for the chance of bounce off the DT or penetration through it are very useful. You've struck gold with this one dude!

If this continues to be as reliable as your backtesting shows, then counter-trend trades of the V4T will add a lot to profits.

In my neck of the woods, only a guy who is built like arnold can get away with wearing a pink shirt. So, only a man who is brilliant can get away with calling himself a Bonehead! I'm not sure I'm smart enough to be a genuine Bonehead, so can I be an honorary Bonehead instead?

Dial
Ignored
Thanx Dial, your enthusiasm and that of others is validating.

However, in "my neck of the woods" it's easier for a Bonehead to get Lucky than it is for a wimp to wear a pink shirt

Thanx also for your encouragement to go ahead and post these findings. Preparing the presentation for this thread required focus which has left me swimming with even more possibilities!

As far as I can see nothing here is counter to any Vegas Doc. In fact he has left doors open to this type of thinking.

I emailed Vegas this info last weekend, albeit not as "focused" as this thread. Here is his reply if anyone is interested. (Vegas = E.F. Hutton )

Quote
Disliked
Brett,
yes, you are exactly right on the money. That is why I updated in VWB the 4
hour. Now some people will stick to the original because they like it. I
prefer, that if you trade with the 4 hour, use the dailies from the fib
extremes.

I am very glad you went back and did the work to verify. This will boost
your trading confidence when entering trades. Just remember the marble game.
You'll know what I mean after you read the new file.
-vegas

Can we gleen from this that Vegas ignores the WM? and what about Naomi? Tune in for more......

Here's a shot of my approach to the Eur/JPY Last week.

Thanx again for encouragement and comments.

HJ
Attached Image
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
 
 
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