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Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

  • #3,381
  • Dec 15, 2010 4:06pm Dec 15, 2010 4:06pm
Quoting ShanB
Does anybody use Andrews pivot count? Here's my take on the EUR. Action in the EUR has been confusing(to me) as of late. The most probable outcome especially after todays action looks to be at least another push down.

I have the possible ABC correction, because it looked like the market would take out the highs of a couple weeks ago(it looks to have failed). Although the ABC correction is not a part of Andrew's count...I have seen it enough times to use it! Also the strength of this down move does indicate that it is move in itself and not a...
Shane,

I use Andrews pivot counts on every chart I use, irregardless if it is time, tick, or range bar based. The euro has been a sassy little wench lately.

There is one alternative count I have been toying with (marked on a snag of your chart) but I do not like it much though it makes for a pretty package. I post it for educational purposes.

When push comes to shove, I am still looking to trade toward the south.

fwiw,

xt
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  • #3,382
  • Dec 15, 2010 4:20pm Dec 15, 2010 4:20pm
Quoting xtsunami
Shane,

I use Andrews pivot counts on every chart I use, irregardless if it is time, tick, or range bar based. The euro has been a sassy little wench lately.

There is one alternative count I have been toying with (marked on a snag of your chart) but I do not like it much though it makes for a pretty package. I post it for educational purposes.

When push comes to shove, I am still looking to trade toward the south.

fwiw,

xt
Yes, I find the count to be a very powerful tool, good to see someone else uses it as well.
I have a question for you concerning the count and other tools...how do you balance the different scenarios of what may play out when looking at a market. I always try to trade WHAT I SEE and keep my bias in the back of my mind! How do you balance your bias with the alternate scenarios that may play out?
  • #3,383
  • Dec 15, 2010 9:52pm Dec 15, 2010 9:52pm
Here is EU off a daily. Seems more bullish than bearish.

http://i1142.photobucket.com/albums/...w25/eurusd.jpg
  • #3,384
  • Dec 16, 2010 2:49am Dec 16, 2010 2:49am
Trying to post up a couple of charts here. But the system won't let me.
Apparently, I have exceeded my quota??????

I have posted, like, about 4 charts!!!!!
I suppose I cud go back and delete them. But that does appears a little pointless.


Is this a polite way of telling me "thanks, but no thanks"?


lol!

Anyone any ideas?

:-)
  • #3,385
  • Dec 16, 2010 3:57am Dec 16, 2010 3:57am
I was charting the major US indices on monthly and weekly TF's and there looks to be some major resistance coming up overhead. The peach colored forks start in 2002!

Looking at the S&P 500 on the daily it shows a similar picture. The markets may zoom the ML's, but the major and minor cycles are coming together so something to look for.
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  • #3,386
  • Dec 16, 2010 5:25am Dec 16, 2010 5:25am
Thanks to whoever sorted my attachment quota!


ShanB - nice charts. That Daily SPX is a real beauty!



On my 240min cable of a couple of days ago, that blue fork is having a bit of a rocky time. Price took out the LP clean as a whistle. I'm keeping it on for now, cause I reckon its frequency looks good, and maybe it will be back in play.

Looking out at the cable daily, and it's clear we are at an important area....

Black up fork speaks for itself
The blue is the mod schiff of black, and its median is doing a pretty good job there...
The confluence of price with that inner red median, and the black LP is the focus...

(As an aside, I have noticed that with FX in particular, on higher timeframes entries are triggered by the regular fork (retest of LP, etc), but the take profit is best taken with its mod schiff median....)
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  • #3,387
  • Dec 16, 2010 5:33am Dec 16, 2010 5:33am
The other chart I was trying to post:

240 min EUR/CHF, retest of that sept low underway. Just posting the chart for interest really. When this cross runs, it sure likes to run in time!
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  • #3,388
  • Dec 16, 2010 6:19am Dec 16, 2010 6:19am
Quoting big_pipin
Had a question for eagle and fork trader, and other pros on here http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif

Is it "illegal" to have a fork like this, where one of the points is BEHIND the point for the median line?

Here is the chart to show what I mean. This is N/U on a daily, and you can see the pivot I'm using for the UML is behind the pivot for the median line..

is this ok to draw forks this way?

I would say there is validity in drawing median lines in such a way. A problem I encounter when doing such is that the lines do not point in the desired direction when I place the drawing point exactly on the B point (P1) . To solve this problem I have to extend the handle to the left of the A point (P0).
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"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #3,389
  • Dec 16, 2010 6:29am Dec 16, 2010 6:29am
Quoting kapital
I would say there is validity in drawing median lines in such a way. A problem I encounter when doing such is that the lines do not point in the desired direction when I place the drawing point exactly on the B point (P1) . To solve this problem I have to extend the handle to the left of the A point (P0).
Thats really more of an inside line or whatever they are called, its basically forcing a proper channel by aligning the lines in order to create a fork, the thing with these forks is that they usually are a subset of a larger fork, but good enough to confirm direction for some 20-30 hours on a 1HR chart
  • #3,390
  • Dec 16, 2010 7:05am Dec 16, 2010 7:05am
Quoting kapital
I would say there is validity in drawing median lines in such a way. A problem I encounter when doing such is that the lines do not point in the desired direction when I place the drawing point exactly on the B point (P1) . To solve this problem I have to extend the handle to the left of the A point (P0).
Kapital,

Don't take this wrong, I'm not specifying your post per-say. I'm just stating mho on the subject of such.... "Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every now and then."

Once you have 3 established consecutive swings, Forks make a great projection tool for finding exits, we expect price to play the lines, and when they don't that too tells us something. But to exit, first we have to put on a trade and that means the 3rd swing (p2) is always questionable the first time it's tested. Actually every time a line is tested we never really know.... so we look for price action to give us some kind of support/resistance base to trade off of in conjunction with the forks medians.

It's hard enough using traditional methods, but then to start throwing in all kinds of alternate construction forks, when does it end, and exactly when do you pull out such tool from the tool box and are you going to put your hard earned dough on such a setup?

Sometimes price just marches to it's own beat, it's either ranging or moving, when moving it's generally either channeling or parabolic. If price isn't respecting your fork, look at the next higher time frame.

Sometimes we just have to wait.

fwiw
  • #3,391
  • Dec 16, 2010 7:25am Dec 16, 2010 7:25am
Quoting ShanB
Yes, I find the count to be a very powerful tool, good to see someone else uses it as well.
I have a question for you concerning the count and other tools...how do you balance the different scenarios of what may play out when looking at a market. I always try to trade WHAT I SEE and keep my bias in the back of my mind! How do you balance your bias with the alternate scenarios that may play out?
Shane,

In my humble opinion, we all have a bias in our trading. If you can say, for instance, "median lines show us the most probable path of price," you have a "bias." I think it is important to realize you have a bias and trade accordingly. Reading price action, understanding context, using tools from your trading toolbox all lead us to a bias and thus to placing a trade.

As for alternate counts, just another tool in building an overall context for framing a trade. It we understand that we have a bias and how we arrived at said bias, we can use it to make better decisions. If we try to trade without a bias and flip a coin at a price point: heads for long, tails for short, we still have a bias, just not one based on quality information, but the fate of a coin toss.

To do any kind of analysis, is to give a bias and bring it into clearer focus with the ability to trade an if..then perspective rather than a wing and a prayer.

Just my opinion,

xt
  • #3,392
  • Dec 16, 2010 7:31am Dec 16, 2010 7:31am
In my experience, there are non-traditional pitchforks which have very good frequency. Some reach the median line, some don't. It all depends on one's tastes as to what they are willing to trade.
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #3,393
  • Dec 16, 2010 8:09am Dec 16, 2010 8:09am
Quoting kapital
In my experience, there are non-traditional pitchforks which have very good frequency. Some reach the median line, some don't. It all depends on one's tastes as to what they are willing to trade.
I agree inside the context of "consecutive changes in state".

Forks, imho, give a 3d projective measure of the past two swings. Those swings could be the last high/low/high, low/high/low, or the completed Elliott waves, which is what you're looking at when you zoom out to the higher time frames. You have your origination point to the wave (p0) end of the first push (p1) and then perhaps an ABC 2nd wave construction (p2). Wave 3 should have a mix of the characteristics, angle, length, time, of the two waves preceding and a fork should pick those up.

Now out of those 3 points we have a traditional fork, Schiff, Modified Schiff, sliders, over/under shoot measures, but they all share the common thread of being a byproduct of those original 3 points. All movement should be seen in one of the fork's variants - if it's valid.

Shifting away from that base methodology for fork construction, ie. points not in the proper series or timeline, defeats the core of what makes forks work?

jmho,
  • #3,394
  • Dec 16, 2010 9:47am Dec 16, 2010 9:47am
my view on EU
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  • #3,395
  • Dec 16, 2010 10:05am Dec 16, 2010 10:05am
Quoting auxesis
I agree inside the context of...
Very well phrased
  • #3,396
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:22pm Dec 16, 2010 12:22pm
Quoting xtsunami
Shane,

In my humble opinion, we all have a bias in our trading. If you can say, for instance, "median lines show us the most probable path of price," you have a "bias." I think it is important to realize you have a bias and trade accordingly. Reading price action, understanding context, using tools from your trading toolbox all lead us to a bias and thus to placing a trade.

As for alternate counts, just another tool in building an overall context for framing a trade. It we understand that we have a bias and how we arrived at said bias, we...
"trade an if..then perspective"...I guess that answered my question. I've seen you do this in some of your charts . We may something we are looking for but we should be open to other possibilities. Thanks... your experience shows in your responses!
  • #3,397
  • Dec 16, 2010 8:06pm Dec 16, 2010 8:06pm
Shane,

My personal trading motto is: Semper Gumby (always flexible!).

xt
  • #3,398
  • Dec 16, 2010 11:38pm Dec 16, 2010 11:38pm
my chart
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  • #3,399
  • Dec 17, 2010 3:55am Dec 17, 2010 3:55am
Maybe next move lower in EUR/CHF now getting underway?? Same chart as yesterday, cross starting to probe below that 08 Sep low, target of red median line still open..

As a result, am watching $/CHF closely:
now retesting the abc 1:1 low. The fact that the first correction off that low so firmly rejected the abc 0.618 lvl, suggests to me that maybe the original abc move is not yet complete, and the 1.272 and 1.618 maybe are in play.

If that inner blue fork LP holds, then a decent double bottom at the 1:1 increases confidence to look for the next wider up fork (not shown on this chart)....

From the daily DX chart: That sliding parallel maybe suggests a test from above of the magenta horizontal is in the cards? Maybe a bit further, to see if that blue LP has any validity??
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  • #3,400
  • Dec 17, 2010 9:59am Dec 17, 2010 9:59am
Quoting taq
Updated EU daily
UCHF nice reversal from ML & AU 240-min fail to reach ML I am looking for 0.9600 let us see how it will unfold.

Regards,
TAQ
Updated charts.

TAQ
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