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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #9,581
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:19am Dec 16, 2010 4:19am
Quoting shiko
It also requires experience. I think I am still in learning mode. I am currently incorporating James16 based price action method into my arsenal and moving to higher time frames. I think within 1 year I will be watching market less than now. used to be probably 15 hours daily for about 2 years. Then it was around 8 hours and now it is probably 5-6 hours daily.
yeah, I think the main reason why it takes so long to become profitable in this business is that there is no structured way of learning how to do trading properly (except in an investment bank maybe).

Learning from this forum is also not quite helpful - the blind leading the blind. You rarely see a really experienced profitable trader in here. Most of the other 10v+ traders just seem to be really good in rhetorics but in trading, that's a totally different story.

Most traders never get down to the core of what trading or profitable trading actually requires. Most don't even know anything about market structure, which should be trading 101. Also I rarely see any academic articles in here, maybe cause many don't wanna read complicated, scientific stuff. But those articles are the only ones that actually statistically quantified their results and have been reviewed by a lot of other people before getting published. Those can be the best starting point to develop something profitable. Not the bs written in most threads.
  • #9,582
  • Dec 16, 2010 6:07am Dec 16, 2010 6:07am
Quoting Custos
yeah, I think the main reason why it takes so long to become profitable in this business is that there is no structured way of learning how to do trading properly (except in an investment bank maybe).

Learning from this forum is also not quite helpful - the blind leading the blind. You rarely see a really experienced profitable trader in here. Most of the other 10v+ traders just seem to be really good in rhetorics but in trading, that's a totally different story.

Most traders never get down to the core of what trading or profitable trading actually...

You are right about this. A lot of BS here, but you and I can sure see through this. We are both looking at threads and methods which have sense.
I am profitable but not as much as I am looking for, which is dissapointing. Statistically I am sabotaging myself once in a few months and it set me down a lot. If everything going to be fine, I want to start building up my trading account since March. I feel I have earned the right.
The amount of BS and lack of statistically proven data says that only working long hours on this and developing 6-th sense little guys like us can succeed. There is a rule of 10 000 hours and I guess I am closing on it , lol
  • #9,583
  • Dec 17, 2010 1:35am Dec 17, 2010 1:35am
Quoting shiko
sorry, wrong numbers.
entry 1.3240, stop 1.3200, take profit 1.3290. probably not enough coffee taken., it is still night here
seems like your take profit is reached! congrats!
  • #9,584
  • Dec 17, 2010 1:57am Dec 17, 2010 1:57am
Quoting shiko
You are right about this. A lot of BS here, but you and I can sure see through this. We are both looking at threads and methods which have sense.
Well, your statement implies that methods that make sense are profitable as well... In the end most methods somehow make sense, I give you an easy example: stochastics - they make a lot of sense since you buy when the market is oversold and you sell when the market is overbought. But is it profitable? I'll let you guys decide...
Unfortunately, most traders are faced with such a huge lack of knowledge like a child that can be told that a nuclear powered submarine is its mother. People seem to lose their abilities to question when it comes to trading, and rather blindly follow a guru or method. Hope you get what I mean. So, yes the methods might make sense, but are they profitable over the long haul?

Just throwing questions out there to make you guys think a bit more and rely less on methods developed by other people.

Quoting shiko
I am profitable but not as much as I am looking for, which is dissapointing. Statistically I am sabotaging myself once in a few months and it set me down a lot. If everything going to be fine, I want to start building up my trading account since March. I feel I have earned the right.
it takes a lot of effort to find a CONSISTENTLY profitable system and it takes a lot of discipline to trade the system CONSISTENTLY.
I hope you really will start building your trading account, but let me tell you: the market won't care, if you think you have earned a right to be profitable. It spits even traders in the face who are at this game for 30+ years (though less likely and less frequently).

Quoting shiko
The amount of BS and lack of statistically proven data says that only working long hours on this and developing 6-th sense little guys like us can succeed. There is a rule of 10 000 hours and I guess I am closing on it , lol
So then let's hope that working long hours is the way to do it. Trading is in my opinion one of the few professions that doesn't correlate with how many hours you worked at it. In any other profession, the longer you worked, the better you will get. In trading some just get it and others never will, no matter how many hours they work on it.


Just wanna get a little bit of reality in all the wishful thinking people have around here.
  • #9,585
  • Dec 17, 2010 2:25am Dec 17, 2010 2:25am
Hi all,

ill share some different approach which I am developing. It works on 5 EA and has a good potential. I also see some space in 1M trading where you trade in 15M trend direction - Daily trades. Also developing EA on that stuff.
Just in consideration ill post this weeks results.

first is an overview of december trading - and later this weeks results for 21 currency pairs vs 7 currencies. EAs work only on trend signals. A plan is to find least bought currency and sell it to most wanted http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...im/winking.gif


pips in sight!
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  • #9,586
  • Dec 17, 2010 3:11am Dec 17, 2010 3:11am
Hmm am still in....with nice pips in profit.

thanks
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  • #9,587
  • Dec 17, 2010 4:05am Dec 17, 2010 4:05am
Quoting mayorowo
Hmm am still in....with nice pips in profit.

thanks
cool man!
  • #9,588
  • Dec 17, 2010 4:21am Dec 17, 2010 4:21am
my picks for next week...

short AUDJPY

still like USDCAD short and USDCHF short
  • #9,589
  • Dec 17, 2010 5:56am Dec 17, 2010 5:56am
Quoting 21vs7
my picks for next week...

short AUDJPY

still like USDCAD short and USDCHF short
CHF is strong for this week; there is a clear tendency it may continue for next week....still in CHFJPY with some nice pips in profit

Thanks
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  • #9,590
  • Dec 17, 2010 6:25am Dec 17, 2010 6:25am
Quoting 21vs7
my picks for next week...

short AUDJPY

still like USDCAD short and USDCHF short
can you please explain why aud/jpy and usd/cad short? Maybe a chart?
  • #9,591
  • Dec 17, 2010 7:13am Dec 17, 2010 7:13am
till the time crude oil is strong usd cad wont leave parity and close direction in order to usd cad go up crude oil has to go below 82 83 levels. Now there are quite an opportunity that boc looking for stronger canadian dollar and looking at cad to go below parity till the end of the year

thanks take care

aman


Quoting Custos
can you please explain why aud/jpy and usd/cad short? Maybe a chart?
  • #9,592
  • Dec 17, 2010 7:48am Dec 17, 2010 7:48am
Quoting Custos
can you please explain why aud/jpy and usd/cad short? Maybe a chart?
sorry bout late reply..

behind every currency is only mathematics - we can write articles about crude and japanesee deflation, nothing else. We are here to see where the thing is going. I still think USDCAD has a lot of potential to see another break of parity.

also my EAs are saying the same - they are experts on trend - trend is the thing of course!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=247


I am seeing better jpy buying then aud - also there is a strong resistance which was unbeatable...im in already...still, we would see the beginning of the week. Till now - pretty confidente.

CHF of course the best pick for now. Best sell i guess GBP for now. Maybe next week we can see a different story.

Just ride the wave!!


sorry-did some analysis but cant attach them-dont have space?!?
  • #9,593
  • Dec 17, 2010 10:23am Dec 17, 2010 10:23am
Quoting 21vs7
sorry bout late reply..

behind every currency is only mathematics - we can write articles about crude and japanesee deflation, nothing else. We are here to see where the thing is going. I still think USDCAD has a lot of potential to see another break of parity.
I also agree the fundamentals are pretty much useless, cause sometimes price will react according to them and sometimes not.
Your thinking is very good, buying the strongest and selling the weakest. Good approach!
One thing I am still not agreeing on is the usdcad break. Look at the weekly chart. The level was established in march 2010. Very unlikely that it will just pop right now through.
This is just my personal recommendation: if you are looking to short it, wait for it to break out to the downside and retrace back to test the level as resistance. From then on it should be smooth sailing.
Quoting 21vs7
also my EAs are saying the same - they are experts on trend - trend is the thing of course!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=247


I am seeing better jpy buying then aud - also there is a strong resistance which was unbeatable...im in already...still, we would see the beginning of the week. Till now - pretty confidente.

CHF of course the best pick for now. Best sell i guess GBP for now. Maybe next week we can see a different story.

Just ride the wave!!


sorry-did some analysis but cant attach them-dont...
But I am still wondering why you are choosing aud/jpy as a short. Even in the EAs you posted, aud/jpy was a strong buy, not a sell at all.

Also another thing I am wondering. What are your rules for entry, stop loss & take profit?
Got any stats on win/loss and risk:reward?

cheers
  • #9,594
  • Dec 17, 2010 1:19pm Dec 17, 2010 1:19pm
Yes, I see that buying nest there - it should really be a big deal that cad could break 1,00, agreed. Still, I am short from "tenish" and trying to add up on short. Still, moved my SL in TP area - around 1.0350 for some of it.
Also, I will try to add at 1.02ish. Will closely look also what is happenig on other pairs. Still, I see good CAD buying from other crosses.

AUDJPY- hm, im also AUDUSD short from 2 days ago - saw that USD was bought 2% per day ... went from overall 44% bought USD to 54% today - also on the other note - JPY was bought respectively!
AUD also was seeing little bit of selling on the overall percentage - which is quite rarely i guess in this times. Maybe its a 3 days correction but im pretty confident that we could pull 200 pips in next week. Later we will see.

Khm - overall of course, i agree about AUD strenght, no problem to revisit 87.

Entry is on major S&R
SLTP ratio from 1:1 to 1:7 . .. and on..SL around 150 pips

stats are not to see - but like to speak about trading cus it improves our discipline and knowledge. Hope you agree.

What is your take on trading, mate?
  • #9,595
  • Dec 17, 2010 8:30pm Dec 17, 2010 8:30pm
Quoting Custos
seems like your take profit is reached! congrats!
hehe, no, stop loss was triggered just by few pips. hit stop and reversed and then take profit. so, no , lost this trade, had 4 trades this week. 3 winners and this one loser. shorted Gbp/Jpy twice and NZD/USD too. Still 1.5% below my all times high, but I am stopping till after New Year.
Today's GBP/JPY short was interesting. I just came back home and checked platform. I expected price to test 130.00 but set take profit at 130.15. 80 pips.
  • #9,596
  • Dec 17, 2010 8:34pm Dec 17, 2010 8:34pm
Quoting Custos
Well, your statement implies that methods that make sense are profitable as well... In the end most methods somehow make sense, I give you an easy example: stochastics - they make a lot of sense since you buy when the market is oversold and you sell when the market is overbought. But is it profitable? I'll let you guys decide...
Unfortunately, most traders are faced with such a huge lack of knowledge like a child that can be told that a nuclear powered submarine is its mother. People seem to lose their abilities to question when it comes to trading,...
well, I mentioned right to start adding more funds to my account, not the right to be profitable, so, it is misunderstanding on your part

Also, yes, there is no correlation between time spent trading and outcome, but it is only when certain level reached.
When you learn a lot of hours must be put into this business and after we have a method than it is what you mean.
  • #9,597
  • Dec 17, 2010 9:12pm Dec 17, 2010 9:12pm
I will start checking charts tomorrow. I just opened my Oanda platform and saw that take profit was hit and trade closed.
I noticed I did not much worried about this trade. My stop was 10 pips above today daily candle high on IB FX and entry around 131.00 after 1.3075 was broken and price retreated. there was a moment when I thought this trade would be a loss.
  • #9,598
  • Dec 18, 2010 4:14am Dec 18, 2010 4:14am
Quoting 21vs7
Entry is on major S&R
SLTP ratio from 1:1 to 1:7 . .. and on..SL around 150 pips

stats are not to see - but like to speak about trading cus it improves our discipline and knowledge. Hope you agree.

What is your take on trading, mate?
Not sure what you mean with stats are not to see.

My take on trading is that statistics is the only thing that counts. If a method is profitable or not can only be determined by that.
Even logical methods are sometimes not profitable. That's why I only look at the stats.
  • #9,599
  • Dec 18, 2010 6:42am Dec 18, 2010 6:42am
Quoting Custos
Not sure what you mean with stats are not to see.

My take on trading is that statistics is the only thing that counts. If a method is profitable or not can only be determined by that.
Even logical methods are sometimes not profitable. That's why I only look at the stats.


I do not completely agree with you on this. Statistics is obviously important but trading is more of an art than mere drab statistics.
I can see it from my own trading. My bad months actually results because of psychological issues not because whatever I am doing is not working. For example, November I moved stop on my short GBP/JPY trade and moved significantly. Lost 3 time as much as I originally risked. That was the only trade in a year that I behaved this way. I was not taking profits on another profitably trades and lost some more trades. So, I do not think it is statistoics, cause had I just taken thos eprofits,even half of them, I would lose around 2% instead of 9% during losing streak. I believe that many methods have the edge, what is necessary is to cut losers not letting them to get out of hand and let profits run. by limiting your downside and increasing up side we can be profitable. I see it from my own experience.
  • #9,600
  • Dec 18, 2010 7:45am Dec 18, 2010 7:45am
Quoting Custos
Not sure what you mean with stats are not to see.

My take on trading is that statistics is the only thing that counts. If a method is profitable or not can only be determined by that.
Even logical methods are sometimes not profitable. That's why I only look at the stats.
I have explained my ratio policy which depends on my exposure percentage. Mainly i go around 1-2 %- never more - Got burned back in times on EURJPY when i got myself in unrationale exposure - sad stuff but important for learning and development - also I try to let my winners run and stop my losers - sometimes it is really difficult as we know.

I have my stats and stats for EAs also. When particular scenarios inside each of 5 EAs is doing the same thing - then I try to follow it...like i said - they are trending signals which have time-lag. Tying to get in on retracements - but mainly i see a strong move on a currency and now im testing also to get in promptly in and not on S&R areas.

I see I can upload now...i will attach AUDJPY...

If 20MA moves cross the 50MA and if we see another week of USD strength we can see a nice long story on JPY crosses also. THis is also seeable in fridays trading. JPY was a BIG buy on friday..

In my opinion, as we stand now - we should see some continuance in JPY, CHF and USD strength.

On the other hand - as we can see it on the summary graph i posted earlier, we can maybe see a beginning of turnaround of GBP weakness. It was selling massively against every currency. Best pick of course GBPCHF. Still, till further notice - we should only sell this cross on a retrace. If we will see any GBP buying on a whole market - then we should be closing positions in GBP and try to buy in back. Till now - ill stay short GBP.
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