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Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

  • #3,361
  • Dec 14, 2010 7:27pm Dec 14, 2010 7:27pm
Quoting big_pipin
Had a question for eagle and fork trader, and other pros on here

Is it "illegal" to have a fork like this, where one of the points is BEHIND the point for the median line?

Here is the chart to show what I mean. This is N/U on a daily, and you can see the pivot I'm using for the UML is behind the pivot for the median line..

is this ok to draw forks this way?

??
  • #3,362
  • Dec 14, 2010 9:10pm Dec 14, 2010 9:10pm
IMO this is not a proper way to draw a fork...BTW I too had a hard time drawing ML's and making them work. I was recommended to draw on daily charts before I understand what ML's were telling me. The way I look at it, ML's measure the vibration of a swing(cycle).

Median=50%, quartile=25%...Gann also considered these to be natural balance points... At these balance points we have REACTIONS(current swings/cycles) that are dependent upon past ACTION(past swing/cycles)
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  • #3,363
  • Dec 14, 2010 10:28pm Dec 14, 2010 10:28pm
The above post is a reply to big-pippin's post!
  • #3,364
  • Dec 14, 2010 10:37pm Dec 14, 2010 10:37pm
I'm not sure if that really answers my question.

A) is it the "wrong" way to draw a fork?

B) if YES, why? ..as long as price respects the fork, how can it be wrong?...obvious if price tests the lines, there is some importance to them.
  • #3,365
  • Dec 14, 2010 10:42pm Dec 14, 2010 10:42pm
Quoting big_pipin
I'm not sure if that really answers my question.

A) is it the "wrong" way to draw a fork?

B) if YES, why? ..as long as price respects the fork, how can it be wrong?...obvious if price tests the lines, there is some importance to them.
My point was that you should look at what a median line accomplishes... A median line measures a past swing/cycle and projects it forward. the way you had drawn your ml...you are drawing from pivots that are not a part of the same swing. IMHO
  • #3,366
  • Dec 14, 2010 11:14pm Dec 14, 2010 11:14pm
In my experience when you use the right swings...you will find the right vibration. Notice how price runs out of energy at the median when using certain swings! This is what Andrew's was talking about! Hope this helps a bit...if not maybe someone else can chime in
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  • #3,367
  • Dec 14, 2010 11:30pm Dec 14, 2010 11:30pm
Action-Reaction principle can be applied in many ways...Check out the median of these cycles!

These are not my ideas...As a wise trader told me there is nothing new under the sun! I was pointed in the way of looking at the market through this cycle perspective by a trader named Joed on the market geometry forum! It has helped me understand the market and how to apply these tools and principles
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  • #3,368
  • Dec 15, 2010 1:57am Dec 15, 2010 1:57am
Quoting big_pipin
Had a question for eagle and fork trader, and other pros on here

Is it "illegal" to have a fork like this, where one of the points is BEHIND the point for the median line?

Here is the chart to show what I mean. This is N/U on a daily, and you can see the pivot I'm using for the UML is behind the pivot for the median line..

is this ok to draw forks this way?
Hi Big Pipin,

I was under the impression that the line of force from Pivot 2 to 3 is what the fork is "measuring" and using to draw the tines ahead of price action. Think of a bouncing ball...when it hits a surface, it is the energy from that point of contact that it uses in the next move/swing. Now maybe what your fork represents from 2 to 3, and we just don't know it yet, is a resultant line of force...a combination for several into one. Who knows . The probabilities of that may not be the same as 80% etc. It seems to get some touches, but it would have to be tested over time for consistency. I know it can be tempting to try a few things, but we have to guard against "fork-fitting". No harm experimenting though .

Regarding it being "illegal"...in my mind, it will be if there is no law that it follows. If no law, then it will not be consistent...losing more than winning...not legal for consistently profitable trading.

Take care...keep pipin'

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #3,369
  • Dec 15, 2010 2:03am Dec 15, 2010 2:03am
Quoting ShanB
In my experience when you use the right swings...you will find the right vibration. Notice how price runs out of energy at the median when using certain swings! This is what Andrew's was talking about! Hope this helps a bit...if not maybe someone else can chime in
I agree ShanB. It is all about finding the right swing.

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #3,370
  • Dec 15, 2010 3:00am Dec 15, 2010 3:00am
A little eye candy for the Action-Reaction traders among us...

FX4Newbies
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #3,371
  • Edited 3:18am Dec 15, 2010 3:01am | Edited 3:18am
Quoting longshot_nl
hey pitchfork gurus...

I had this chart of EU.

I think that you only need 2 lines to predict where the last one is going to be.

The 2nd chart shows that the white arrows predict the green arrow.

The 3rd chart is the curent situation.

Do you guru's agree with this.?
Yes, I have observed something similar. Kapital and I noticed and discussed the same thing as your 2nd chart when the Euro was bouncing around in October prior to the peak in early November.

After the fact, one can draw forks for study purposes and see how they played out. The best forks often show evidence of resonance before the final 3rd point was established! If such resonance occurs, it means in fact that one should be able to predict where the 3rd point is going to be established in advance of the fact! This is not easy to do, but you are on the right track to watch out for them. (I think forkTrader has some good skills spotting 3rd points at the right moment. FT, any comments?)

If you were to draw quartile lines in addition to the fork, you would see a lot more resonance prior to the 3rd point. And after the fork, you would find that warning lines also play a big part too.

For me, I tend to draw forks using major pivots only. I like to see the price action from the 2nd to 3rd point show some symmetry in the way that it crosses what eventually becomes the medianline when the 3rd point is established. In your 3rd chart, you are predicting a possible slope of the pitchfork based on some good pre-resonance with the eventual medianline. We'll see how that plays out in the next few hours, and if it works, it should touch somewhere around 1.3268 +/- depending on when (8AM NY??). However, what I don't like about this setup is that you're looking for a 3rd point which will NOT be a major low compared to the PA between the 2nd and 3rd points. There isn't much symmetry, and the path is all over the place. That was not the case for the October EURO charts that I previously observed.

I'm no expert in this technique, and I will watch with interest. You're welcome to make further predictions of potential 3rd points in advance of the eventual pivot. If you figure that one out, it's as good as gold. Good luck.
  • #3,372
  • Dec 15, 2010 4:17am Dec 15, 2010 4:17am
Quoting pips4life
Yes, I have observed something similar. Kapital and I noticed and discussed the same thing as your 2nd chart when the Euro was bouncing around in October prior to the peak in early November.

After the fact, one can draw forks for study purposes and see how they played out. The best forks often show evidence of resonance before the final 3rd point was established! If such resonance occurs, it means in fact that one should be able to predict where the 3rd point is going to be established in advance of the fact! This is not easy to...
Thank you for your kind reply.
Yes we'll see how this plays out.
which pitchfork will be followed.. the established one or the one that isn't yet.
  • #3,373
  • Dec 15, 2010 7:14am Dec 15, 2010 7:14am
Quoting longshot_nl
hey pitchfork gurus...

I had this chart of EU.

I think that you only need 2 lines to predict where the last one is going to be.

The 2nd chart shows that the white arrows predict the green arrow.

The 3rd chart is the curent situation.

Do you guru's agree with this.?

Let us not forget that median lines (pitchforks) are action-reaction lines at the core.
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #3,374
  • Dec 15, 2010 11:14am Dec 15, 2010 11:14am
Updated EU daily
UCHF nice reversal from ML & AU 240-min fail to reach ML I am looking for 0.9600 let us see how it will unfold.

Regards,
TAQ
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  • #3,375
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:12pm Dec 15, 2010 12:12pm
Quoting taq
Updated EU daily
UCHF nice reversal from ML & AU 240-min fail to reach ML I am looking for 0.9600 let us see how it will unfold.

Regards,
TAQ
Interessting charts, based on them whats your analysis on price movement?
  • #3,376
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:37pm Dec 15, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting Orbital
Interessting charts, based on them whats your analysis on price movement?
Probable tgts are there on charts.
UCHF i m looking for 9900
AU 9600 & EU 1.2400-2500.
  • #3,377
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:39pm Dec 15, 2010 12:39pm
Whats the reason for 1.24/25? I'm not disagreeing, infact my projections are a lot lower than yours (1.18/1.15) im just wondering
  • #3,378
  • Dec 15, 2010 2:08pm Dec 15, 2010 2:08pm
Does anybody use Andrews pivot count? Here's my take on the EUR. Action in the EUR has been confusing(to me) as of late. The most probable outcome especially after todays action looks to be at least another push down.

I have the possible ABC correction, because it looked like the market would take out the highs of a couple weeks ago(it looks to have failed). Although the ABC correction is not a part of Andrew's count...I have seen it enough times to use it! Also the strength of this down move does indicate that it is move in itself and not a correction of the uptrend! Anybody else have a count into this?
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  • #3,379
  • Dec 15, 2010 2:09pm Dec 15, 2010 2:09pm
PA also is a bit two-sided...looking at the EUR weekly we see two pin bars forming in opposite directions. This could be setup for a possible range.
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  • #3,380
  • Dec 15, 2010 2:53pm Dec 15, 2010 2:53pm
Yeah i cant come up with any other reasonable forks, except that i have 2 forks on the Weekly chart which i also see a double top on btw...

blue dotted line seems like the most likely place to move towards based on priceaction
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