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Am I good or just lucky?

  • #21
  • Dec 14, 2010 10:23pm Dec 14, 2010 10:23pm
There is a time when a trader feel lucky, you should enjoyed it. The most important thing is the result in the end.

I remember that I can make profit up to 150% a day, but that not last in longer time. I even get minus in the end.

Just keep your emotion and greediness away. That should fine.
  • #22
  • Jan 8, 2011 8:57am Jan 8, 2011 8:57am
lucky or skilled, as long as it works - ask no questions. Do your stuff & enjoy
  • #23
  • Jan 9, 2011 3:56am Jan 9, 2011 3:56am
Quoting Razor_trader
Yes and I would bet that 99% of them are either Demo accounts or small live accounts. There are also alot of BS artists around and they generally post some really hipnotic crap before disappearing for whatever reason.

Over the course of a year if my account was up 30% or more I would be quite happy to say that it was a very successful year. There will also be years where 60% or more is achieved and then there will be years when you fail to beat the banks interest offering.
I absolutely agree with your figures...A 30%-40% year would be awesome...Actually considered a very successful year...I have personally experienced 60%-70% years and they are usually considered heaven...I also experienced a 120% year, however, that year was immediately followed by a -50% year (Peak to Bottom)...All the trends were unwinding and reversing very sharply and quickly that you can't handle it quick enough, it blows out your mind and freezes your brain...

The talk about 10% a month is even considered non-realistic unless you take so much risk that you probably won't be able to handle against the short term movements...


Regards,

Nader
  • #24
  • Jan 9, 2011 8:03am Jan 9, 2011 8:03am
Quoting INANJ
I opened an Oanda account 6 weeks ago: $50K. I have a lot of experience trading e-minis on short time frames. I've been trading EUR/USD on pure price action: no SMAs EMAs, no nothing. I just watch the candles at 15min, 5min, and 1min and trade on "feel". Once a trade is on I watch it on the 1min. My trades last 5-20 minutes, never hold overnight. No stops.
For the 6 weeks I've averaged $641 profit per day. I've only had 5 losing days.
Am I lucky or do I have a knack for this?
the fact that you are asking this question prooves that you r lucky ....
doesnt it?

keep well !
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #25
  • Jan 9, 2011 8:12am Jan 9, 2011 8:12am
Quoting narafa
I absolutely agree with your figures...A 30%-40% year would be awesome...Actually considered a very successful year...I have personally experienced 60%-70% years and they are usually considered heaven...I also experienced a 120% year, however, that year was immediately followed by a -50% year (Peak to Bottom)...All the trends were unwinding and reversing very sharply and quickly that you can't handle it quick enough, it blows out your mind and freezes your brain...

The talk about 10% a month is even considered non-realistic unless you take...
I love to see the guys go out there and aim to make it big out of nothing. There have been examples in the past of people who have made some phenomenal figures from the correct market conditions and I am sure there are others who dont make it public. There are just too many people who believe that it highly probable, easy even with the notions of "just this many pips per day". These catch the attentions of new traders who see results, created or produced, and hop on the bandwagon. There are some who find success, most dont return though... which I guess tells most of the story.

Everyone should be trying to beat the safest returns which come in a variety of forms from high interest bank accounts, government bonds ect by even a percent but it isnt enough for most. Most want to see there money doubled. The funniest thing is that so many start with say $200, leverage 100:1 and they trade it in the most risky manner. If I was really in a hurry to double my money or go bust (can really only be either) I would just head to my local casino and put the damn thing on black.

What we should be doing is looking for a way to develop an approach that has a definable edge and exploit it with the goal of building trust and even a feel for a particular markets behaviour so that we could 1 day feel confident trading a 50k account or more. This will offer far more rewarding results long term compared to the constant bust, reload, bust, reload, big win, bust, reload situation that occurs. This may get you rich 1 day but chances are you will blow it pretty quickly aswell.

RT
  • #26
  • Jan 9, 2011 8:26am Jan 9, 2011 8:26am
Quoting INANJ
I opened an Oanda account 6 weeks ago: $50K. I have a lot of experience trading e-minis on short time frames. I've been trading EUR/USD on pure price action: no SMAs EMAs, no nothing. I just watch the candles at 15min, 5min, and 1min and trade on "feel". Once a trade is on I watch it on the 1min. My trades last 5-20 minutes, never hold overnight. No stops.
For the 6 weeks I've averaged $641 profit per day. I've only had 5 losing days.
Am I lucky or do I have a knack for this?
Lucky for si=ure as you did manage profit daily on average & not tried every day & took 5 days loss within limit also. Not using indicators & rely on the feel, what feel ? of love or hate ?never think so . you are experienced in price action & so you can feel possible next from the look & not from random up & down.
and in support of this hypothesis , you did not back after the post , just playing with others sentiment while perhaps watching remotely.
good work anyway & hope we will see your theory in time & motive of the post soon.

carry on good job.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #27
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:05am Jan 10, 2011 4:05am
Just make sure you know how to deal with a couple of losing days in a row, because those will come around from time to time. Other than that having a feel for a pair and trading purely on that account is amazing and you should keep doing what you are doing.
  • #28
  • Jan 28, 2011 12:49am Jan 28, 2011 12:49am
For me, however it's been 1 weeks. I know it's not long but i've never traded anything in my life before. Had no knowledge of anything I just went on babypips based on what some dudes said on here. so after a few hours of browsing some babypips stuff i went and downloaded a couple FX platforms.

I'm currently using HotForex Metatrader 4 or whatever. So I started with a 5000 demo account and in 3 days with about 19 trades i've had 18 winning trades and 1 losing trade all with 1.0 lots. my account is now 6100. 1100 bucks in 3 days? frealz??? i'm either extremely lucky or what i'm doing is working. i decided to trade only tuesday wednesday and thursday in the afternoon and so far they seem to be golden times to enter a trade then bam cash out 10 mins-40 mins later with 60-90 buck profit.

is the demo trading platforms the same as live accounts? i mean are the trading floors the same or are they just mock simulations? cause fi they were the same then in a real account i woulda just made 1100 dollars.. holy jeez that's like 150 bucks an hour lolz
  • #29
  • Jan 29, 2011 8:12pm Jan 29, 2011 8:12pm
Quoting narafa
I absolutely agree with your figures...A 30%-40% year would be awesome...Actually considered a very successful year...I have personally experienced 60%-70% years and they are usually considered heaven...I also experienced a 120% year, however, that year was immediately followed by a -50% year (Peak to Bottom)...All the trends were unwinding and reversing very sharply and quickly that you can't handle it quick enough, it blows out your mind and freezes your brain...

Nader
Thanks for the post - it's good to see the perspective of someone with multiple years live trading experience. I just completed my first 12 months of live trading with a 40% return. My friend asked me to trade for him, but I said, "I don't consider myself a success yet. Ask me in 5 years, once conditions have changed and see if I'm still successful." Forex is a long-term proposition and should be approached with a healthy respect for its ability to sink you. Not to say one should live in fear, but just treat it as you would a pet lion...
  • #30
  • Jan 30, 2011 2:23am Jan 30, 2011 2:23am
ahhhh..... is there a way to slap some skin with your over the internet? Six weeks and just 5 losing days, luck or not I'll TAKE IT!
lol

Quoting INANJ
I opened an Oanda account 6 weeks ago: $50K. I have a lot of experience trading e-minis on short time frames. I've been trading EUR/USD on pure price action: no SMAs EMAs, no nothing. I just watch the candles at 15min, 5min, and 1min and trade on "feel". Once a trade is on I watch it on the 1min. My trades last 5-20 minutes, never hold overnight. No stops.
For the 6 weeks I've averaged $641 profit per day. I've only had 5 losing days.
Am I lucky or do I have a knack for this?
  • #31
  • Jan 30, 2011 5:59am Jan 30, 2011 5:59am
From the little I have observed I would say that 6 weeks is too short a time-scale to judge as the markets seem to go into different states now and again.

However, you can answer the question more accurately if you randomly pick similar periods over the past say 10 years and paper trade / back-test using your strategy.
  • #32
  • Last Post: Jan 30, 2011 3:15pm Jan 30, 2011 3:15pm
So what happened to this guy, he didn't come back.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
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