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  • #281
  • Feb 10, 2006 2:43pm Feb 10, 2006 2:43pm
Quoting Anpar
With that being said, I'm still in the current gbp/usd trade. Prices retraced 50% from the high, so we know that the probability of prices going back to the high is low. If you were still in the trade, would you consider this a day trade at this time?
Anpar,

I'm assuming you mean the sells from above. Yes, I would consider it. The oinly thing is that it's a Friday, so where's it going now? Well, nowhere. Therefore, I would probably choose Sunday night and avoid the weekend risk.
vegas
  • #282
  • Feb 10, 2006 3:23pm Feb 10, 2006 3:23pm
Quoting cici
Holy Cat's Eye Batman! It's a marble game!

Vegas,

I must be related to HeavyJ, because I feel like a bonehead too!

I've been reading and re-reading all your posts trying to get a handle on all this business of trading being like a marble game. I just was not getting it. Then I started thinking about something that Diallist has said a few times on this forum about individual trades and their outcomes are meaningless and that only a series of trades has meaning. I couldn't grasp that either.

For the last few hours, I've been thinking about what you and Diallist have said. I suspected that they were related somehow, but I just couldn't make the connection. But then, and I was just being silly I guess, I started chanting "Meaningless.......Marble", "Meaningless....Marble", "MeaninglessMarbleMeaninglessMarbleMeaninglessMarble" then POW! The light came on and I saw the connection between what you and Diallist had said!

The bag of marbles represents your trading method and is a constantly shifting bag of probabilities. A marble pulled from the bag is a trade and it's color the outcome. I understood all that before, but what I was failing to grasp was that the marble just pulled out of the bag was not a distinct stand alone entity as I had first thought. I'd look at the marble and forget all about the bag. Now I realize that the marble, even though pulled from the bag for examination, is still a part of the rest of the bag of marbles. The single marble is still "connected" to all the other marbles, and it is a probabilistic connection. I further realized that the bag contains an infinite number of marbles, but with a finite ratio of winners to losers. This ratio may vary constantly, but there will always be more winning marbles in the bag than losing marbles, and the marbles are unevenly distributed. There may be clumps of red and clumps of white marbles in parts of the bag, but an even mixture in other parts of the bag. Looking at it that way a "clump" of losing trades should not be discouraging as long as I continue to have faith in the whole bag.

So, when I pull a single marble out of the bag, what does it tell me about all the marbles still in the bag? Nothing, because it is "meaningless"! The single marble can only speak of itself, it cannot speak for the bag. But after pulling a "series" of marbles out of the bag as Diallist has said, then meaning, as it relates to the bag, begins to form. The series of marbles paints a mosaic that is a picture of what is in the bag! And that should serve to increase confidence in the whole bag! Long live the bag!!

I'm sorry for all this rambling, but I'm so excited about my new understanding that I've been pacing the floor for hours now!

Today's GBP trade was one marble and all it told me was it was red. It doesn't matter WHY it was red. It doesn't matter what the market did that made the marble red. That doesn't matter and I shouldn't care, as you have intimated. All I need to do now is say "NEXT!" and grab the next marble. What I DON'T need to be doing is analyzing why the marble was red and is there anything I can do to tweak the system so when this type market action happens again I will get a winning white marble instead! Diallist has told me that doing that will break the edge a system has and I must follow the rules the same way for each trade. I didn't get that before, but I think I do now thanks to your post Vegas.

Perhaps none of the above makes any sense, and I may still have it screwed up, but I've got to say "Thank the Heavens" that people like you and Diallist are willing to share your profession knowledge with us noobs!

Thank you Vegas & Diallist for putting this together for me!

cici
nice post cici!! If you realize this concept of "Magic marbles by vegas", then I'm sure you have almost hit the "Eureka!!!!" moment of your trading career. I have been trading ard 18 months now and went thru HELL of an experience. The moment I clearly understood this concept, I started have a new trading life and my confidence went up sky rocketing..after all, no point in killing yourself for all the losing trades !! All you got to do is put your mind straight and start hunting for the next deer !!

Shan
  • #283
  • Feb 10, 2006 3:25pm Feb 10, 2006 3:25pm
Quoting cici
Perhaps none of the above makes any sense, and I may still have it screwed up, but I've got to say "Thank the Heavens" that people like you and Diallist are willing to share your profession knowledge with us noobs!

Thank you Vegas & Diallist for putting this together for me!

cici
cici,

Along with Vegas, let me welcome you to the next level!

Ummm....I'm glad my meager contribution helped you cici. But, while I am honored to have my name in the same sentence as Vegas, I'm only a flea on the tip of the tail of the purebred canine that goes by his name. I am the Wright Flyer, while Vegas is the Starship Enterprise!

Dial
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  • #284
  • Feb 10, 2006 4:41pm Feb 10, 2006 4:41pm
Quoting diallist
...I am the Wright Flyer, while Vegas is the Starship Enterprise!
Dial
My dad and i saw the recreation of the Wright Flyer "fly" at an airshow in Dayton Ohio a couple years back during the centinial celebration of the original flight. And while i got the full meaning of your analogy Dial, I'd also like to ad that the Wright Flyer is a beauty in flight in it's own right. (That's my in-context-way of saying good job Dial, and we appreciate you!)

Cheers,
Thom
  • #285
  • Edited 5:26pm Feb 10, 2006 5:18pm | Edited 5:26pm
I love flying! Im a pilot in training.... lol so I understand that to!

Accrete, was that the one with the big fly-in? I acually remember making plans to fly to it.. had the flightplan and everything and I somehow couldnt make it out that weekend.. forgot why.
  • #286
  • Feb 10, 2006 8:01pm Feb 10, 2006 8:01pm
G'day everyone,

I really like the marble analogy. It reminds me of what I read in Mark Douglas' book. I felt so stupid that I just didn't see the probabilities thing before. Realising the true facts has changed my whole approach and attitude. I used to get so stressed about losses. Now I only get annoyed about stupid losses, like when I trade emotionally.

One thing still remains. Applying a strategy that that represents a good bag with a higher chance of pulling whites. If I don't trade the strategy as intended then I'll end up changing the bag and that is my concern with the Vegas models. Where to go from here?

Wiz.
  • #287
  • Feb 10, 2006 8:06pm Feb 10, 2006 8:06pm
Quoting vegas
You only get your best trades from the signal reversal. After that the probabilities go down hill. Now, if you get a new signal, then you go with it.

I would add in this edit, that this is true except in the volatile pairs eur/jpy and gbp/usd, where you can get back in because the volatility allows you to.

The only reason I didn't get back in today on the break is because it's Friday and the action has left most accounts awe-struck and unwilling to play. Market has died down considerably since the break.
Vegas,

I got stopped out on the initial entry (GBPUSD) like many others following the VWB, but decided to get back in when price moved north again with a fair amount of momentum & luckily I caught a few pips. From what you've said above, does this mean that the odds of the price breaking out were significantly lower and that you would recommend forgetting about this particular trade? (generally speaking & taking your volatility comments on the gpbusd and eurjpy into account). What I'm trying to say is did my getting back in violate any VWB rules?

Thanks,
BlueMeasure
  • #288
  • Feb 10, 2006 10:12pm Feb 10, 2006 10:12pm
Vegas, I am reviewing my trade today and realized that, yes I caught the 47+ pip move up but I didn't catch the 50% break down before the huge move up. However, this really wouldn't matter because:

A) The 50% rule is not designed to be a stop but rather a confirmation and indicator.

B) Appropriate stops would have been determined by the previous day daily candlestick (recent low) as referred to in the original VWB.

Am I on the right track with this?

Thanks in advance.
  • #289
  • Feb 11, 2006 3:38am Feb 11, 2006 3:38am
Quoting The Wizard of Oz
G'day everyone,

I really like the marble analogy. It reminds me of what I read in Mark Douglas' book. I felt so stupid that I just didn't see the probabilities thing before. Realising the true facts has changed my whole approach and attitude. I used to get so stressed about losses. Now I only get annoyed about stupid losses, like when I trade emotionally.

One thing still remains. Applying a strategy that that represents a good bag with a higher chance of pulling whites. If I don't trade the strategy as intended then I'll end up changing the bag and that is my concern with the Vegas models. Where to go from here?

Wiz.
He who controls the bag, controls the Universe!

It's in da bag, man!!!

When tempted to make an emotional trade, just put the bag over your head and breath heavily until you've calmed down or passed out. Makes no difference which if it will keep you out of that trade!

Hey Antra and Michele! Are you "bag" ladies?

When you have a big win, you've bagged one!
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #290
  • Feb 11, 2006 9:50am Feb 11, 2006 9:50am
According to the vwb rules, take 50% of open position when the trade gets near the channel.

Lets say you have 3 lots open.

Do you move the stop up 50% on all 3 lots from from the point where you bought each lot?

Or
Do you some how close 50% of your open 3 lots and take it off the table for real. Is it possible to do a TP on part of an open order while the trade is on?

Exactly how do you do this take 50% of 3 lots.
Not real Familiar with the MT4, I looked at the help files from
IB on MT4 and it is not real clear.

I stopped out like most of us, because I had moved my stop up to break even on 1 of the lots and the other 2 had a small loss a this stop level.
I did this as it got near the channel, with the expection that it most likely would pass thru it like a normal behaving GBP.
Vegas said it was an odd ball right from the beginning because of the spinning top candle that was on the Daily at the time of the trade initiation, so I guess we had a little pre warning this thing could go south.

What I should have done was some how book 50% so I'm banging my head on the wall about not implementing the model correctly not the small loss on two of the lots.
  • #291
  • Feb 11, 2006 6:19pm Feb 11, 2006 6:19pm
lambrechtj

A good trading platform will allow you to TP on any number of lots (say 1 of 3). FX Solutions will. Not MT4. You can chart with one service and trade on another.

Another solution with MT4 is to open with 3 separate lots and TP as you see fit. Not the best solution, but workable.

Trinity
  • #292
  • Feb 11, 2006 9:49pm Feb 11, 2006 9:49pm
Quoting Trinity
lambrechtj

A good trading platform will allow you to TP on any number of lots (say 1 of 3). FX Solutions will. Not MT4. You can chart with one service and trade on another.

Another solution with MT4 is to open with 3 separate lots and TP as you see fit. Not the best solution, but workable.

Trinity
For now in order to close something off at 50% in MT4 looks like you would need to trade an even number of separate trade units with one lot each or so, example open 4 close 2 when it gets near the channel. In other words put in 4 separate live trades.

Have I got this right, Is this the best you can do with MT4?
  • #293
  • Feb 11, 2006 10:13pm Feb 11, 2006 10:13pm
Quoting lambrechtj
For now in order to close something off at 50% in MT4 looks like you would need to trade an even number of separate trade units with one lot each or so, example open 4 close 2 when it gets near the channel. In other words put in 4 separate live trades.

Have I got this right, Is this the best you can do with MT4?
Yes. You could enter 2+2, close 2 and keep 2 for the later close, of course.
  • #294
  • Feb 12, 2006 1:10am Feb 12, 2006 1:10am
Quoting lambrechtj
For now in order to close something off at 50% in MT4 looks like you would need to trade an even number of separate trade units with one lot each or so, example open 4 close 2 when it gets near the channel. In other words put in 4 separate live trades.

Have I got this right, Is this the best you can do with MT4?
You can close half of 3 lots with MT4, but with the InterbankFx feed. Interbank allows you to trade micro lots, which would make it possible to close 1.5 lots.
Open a demo with InterbankFx and download version 4 (same as MT4).

Take Care
Habeeb
Keeping it Simple
  • #295
  • Feb 12, 2006 5:44am Feb 12, 2006 5:44am
Quoting Trinity
lambrechtj
Another solution with MT4 is to open with 3 separate lots and TP as you see fit. Not the best solution, but workable.
Trinity
Trinity...
I use the MT4 platform and I manage my positions using an "Expert Advisor" (EA) which I wrote. Within an EA it is easy to open a single 6 lot position and close 2 lots on 3 separate occasions/events.
Just my 2 pips worth...
rjb
  • #296
  • Feb 12, 2006 1:44pm Feb 12, 2006 1:44pm
Quoting habeeb
You can close half of 3 lots with MT4, but with the InterbankFx feed. Interbank allows you to trade micro lots, which would make it possible to close 1.5 lots.
Open a demo with InterbankFx and download version 4 (same as MT4).

Take Care
Habeeb
Cool I will try that, I have MT4 with Interbank.
I'll try this out on the demo.
So when you want to close it just specify how much of it to close and click the close button. Otherwise I still may just open 4 lots and close off two when ready it is easy enough.

Thanks for the info.
  • #297
  • Edited 2:56pm Feb 12, 2006 2:43pm | Edited 2:56pm
I've read VBW-II through a couple of times now and I've been reading this thread too. The 3 concepts are starting to sink in a little, but I have question about the spreadsheet.

What is the spreadsheet for?

Is it only used to determine probabilities mentioned in VBW-II or is there some greater use that is eluding me?

Someone on this forum did a really good job of putting a spreadsheet together for the spot forex market and I'm wondering if it's worthwhile keeping it up do date.

Before I sign off I want to say thank you to vegas for sharing a few really great systems and to everyone on FF for discussing all this. It's the discussion that is really opening my eyes.
  • #298
  • Feb 12, 2006 6:34pm Feb 12, 2006 6:34pm
Quoting xspowerx
Vegas, I am reviewing my trade today and realized that, yes I caught the 47+ pip move up but I didn't catch the 50% break down before the huge move up. However, this really wouldn't matter because:

A) The 50% rule is not designed to be a stop but rather a confirmation and indicator.

B) Appropriate stops would have been determined by the previous day daily candlestick (recent low) as referred to in the original VWB.

Am I on the right track with this?

Thanks in advance.
Vegas, when you get a chance can you answer that question for me please.

Also, I got new probabilities calculated since the begining of the year on the GBPUSD:

When the market is greater than 33 pips, 50% of the time its between 33 and 36 and 50% of the time its greater than 36 pips.

When the market is greater than 37 pips, 50% of the time its between 37 pips and 56 pips, and 50% of the time its great than 57 pips.

The miss hit ratio for for 20 day median for me is 50% less and 50% greater on 21 pips.

Do we use these new figures or do we stick to yours for the sake that you have alot more data calculated and I only have a month?

Thanks!

***EDIT***

Acually I found my mistake. I only have 8 days calculated.... I needed figures from the begining of the year in order to begin calculations of the 20 day. So I guess until I get more data we stick to you data of 30 pips, 47 pips, etc.
  • #299
  • Edited Feb 14, 2006 11:01am Feb 13, 2006 11:42am | Edited Feb 14, 2006 11:01am
Hi all!

The VWB2 document inspired me to play a bit with statistics ...

So, for starters, I made an indicator showing price distribution around the daily EMA. The picture shows a closing price distribution around EMA-24 on the daily chart.

Well, it's interesting, and I'm not really sure how to interpret it, other than: price tends to stay away from the EMA (?). Also, the distribution pattern is very much the same across different pairs. The dip in the pattern is probably caused by the subtraction of moving average from the price. Any ideas/comments?

p.s.: I hope this isn't too off-topic ...

Get the indicator here.
Attached Image
  • #300
  • Feb 13, 2006 12:42pm Feb 13, 2006 12:42pm
Quoting Jure
Hi all!

The VWB2 document inspired me to play a bit with statistics ...

So, for starters, I made an indicator showing price distribution around the daily EMA. The picture shows a closing price distribution around EMA-24 on the daily chart.

Well, it's interesting, and I'm not really sure how to interpret it, other than: price tends to stay away from the EMA (?). Also, the distribution pattern is very much the same across different pairs. The dip in the pattern is probably caused by the subtraction of moving average from the price. Any ideas/comments?

p.s.: I hope this isn't too off-topic ...
"London swings like a pendulum do......"

This is why we only look for reversal days beyond the "interest" fib level.
Attached Image
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